The Muscle is available...D'Backs release Russell Branyan

[FVBrewerFan]

I rather give Katan a shot if you're looking for a 3TO option off the bench.

[TheCrew]

These aren't exaggerations, they are truths fully supported by what the players have done including past performance and this years performances. Both of these players have been below replacement level over the past 4 seasons combined now and have been below it so far this year.

If all you said was they were below replacement level, we wouldn't have a problem. It's your constant ridiculous exaggerations and the constant straw men arguments........... for instance, I never said they were above replacement level yet you want to argue about that. Heck , I never even said they were good players.

 

Really not worth my time anymore.

[rluzinski]

You are proposing we ignore the thousands of AB Kotsay has had prior to 2011 and instead use his 100 AB from this year to "value" his worth. That leads to all kinds of fun results. Kotsay has a higher OBP than Pujols right now. Do you value his ability to get on base more?

The start of a new year should not be used as an excuse to wipe the slate clean in terms of valuing player skill. Projections take into account prior seasons. Message board analysis often does not.

No, I'm doing no such thing, what I'm proposing is that we don't take a websites projections as factual data and cut a player because a website says that he will not perform well over the remainder of the season.

Factual data? Are you suggesting that projections can't perfectly predict the future? Of course they can't. They are called projections, not prognostications. Our best guess of future performance. They predict future performance a hell of a lot better than just looking at 150 AB from the current season, which is what you are suggesting we do. The rest-of-season ZiPS projections takes that performance into account PLUS previous season performances. That alone should be enough to convince you to EXPECT them to be a better predictor of future performance.

I'm not sure what's up with you recently.

 

[TheCrew]

Factual data? Are you suggesting that projections can't perfectly predict the future? Of course they can't. They are called projections, not prognostications. Our best guess of future performance. They predict future performance a hell of a lot better than just looking at 150 AB from the current season, which is what you are suggesting we do. The rest-of-season ZiPS projections takes that performance into account PLUS previous season performances. That alone should be enough to convince you to EXPECT them to be a better predictor of future performance.

I'm not sure what's up with you recently.

 

Read the posts I was responding to rather than singling out one of my posts - might make more sense. Poster on the previous page made it seem like a given that Kotsay's projections were going to happen................ stated he was a bad OF because of his projections. Maybe I took him too literally..........

 

Let me be clear - I'm all for upgrades over Yuni and Kotsay, but where I differ with people is the level of badness that we are getting from said 2 players and what constitutes an actual upgrade. Some posters have labeled me as defending said players, no - I'm not defending them, I'm simply not agreeing with the type of thought process that leads to statements like 'nick punto is an upgrade over Yuni'.

 

I'm done arguing this stuff as it keeps going in circles - probably best to just stay out of these threads and agree to disagree.

[DHonks]

once again folks, I think we need a lefty bat to be a DH for 9 games this month. Should it be Gamel or Branyan to balance the lineup? I'm fine with either, as long as Gamel doesn't rot on the bench for 3 weeks before/after

[Funketown]

Read the posts I was responding to rather than singling out one of my posts - might make more sense. Poster on the previous page made it seem like a given that Kotsay's projections were going to happen................ stated he was a bad OF because of his projections. Maybe I took him too literally..........

Are you referring to this?

 

"Zips projects .258/.319/.364/.683 for the rest of the season. If that

isn't a terrible line for an outfielder/PH'er, I don't know what is."

 

Kotsay has bad projections because he is a bad hitter, not the other way around.

[CheezWizHed]

"Zips projects .258/.319/.364/.683 for the rest of the season. If that isn't a terrible line for an outfielder/PH'er, I don't know what is."

 

What are people's expectations of a pinch hitter/bench player? Honestly, that doesn't look like a terrible line for a bench player, IMO. Yes, that is "below replacement", but that would be for expectations of a starter, not a bench player, right?

 

I'm not trying to defend Kotsay (I'd like to see him replace honestly), but I when I look at that line in the quote and think about a bench player with an MLB averge OBP, I've can't imagine it being that "terrible". For a starter, absolutely (although that would be an upgrade at our CF and SS positions), but for a bench player, it seems OK to me.

 

So what is the average AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS line for a bench player? Not sure if anyone compiles that or not...

[Funketown]

It's not terrible for a PH'er, but for a corner outfielder that gets 2-3 starts per week, it's pretty bad. It's pretty easy to find another no field guy who can hit much better than that. If Kotsay were used on the bench solely for pinch hitting against righties, I don't think we'd have the outcry against him that we are seeing.

 

Last year against righties, Branyan hit .254/.352/.522/.874 in 322 PA's. A very conservative projection for him would be .220/.320/.450/.770, and that would still be a pretty good upgrade for the Crew on the bench.

[rluzinski]

"Zips projects .258/.319/.364/.683 for the rest of the season. If that isn't a terrible line for an outfielder/PH'er, I don't know what is."

 

What are people's expectations of a pinch hitter/bench player? Honestly, that doesn't look like a terrible line for a bench player, IMO. Yes, that is "below replacement", but that would be for expectations of a starter, not a bench player, right?

 

I'm not trying to defend Kotsay (I'd like to see him replace honestly), but I when I look at that line in the quote and think about a bench player with an MLB averge OBP, I've can't imagine it being that "terrible". For a starter, absolutely (although that would be an upgrade at our CF and SS positions), but for a bench player, it seems OK to me.

 

So what is the average AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS line for a bench player? Not sure if anyone compiles that or not...

I think that is an excellent question. I would assume that the average bench player is right around replacement level. Last year, subs put up a combined .222/.294/.342/.636 line, so they obviously don't hit well. Of course, the required offensive production needed to be replacement level is dependent on what position you play and how well you play it. A utility infielder or backup catcher that plays average defense can get away with hitting very poorly, while a corner outfielder/1B has to be able to hit significantly better. A strict pinchhitter has the highest threshold.

.260/.320/.365 for backup corner OFer that plays average defense is probably close to average but I'll see if I can find out for sure.

 

[monty57]

If Kotsay were used on the bench solely for pinch hitting against righties, I don't think we'd have the outcry against him that we are seeing.

 

I do. Look at the threads from the offseason when he was signed. That was before Hart was hurt.

 

I agree that Kotsay is bad, but as I wrote in the other Mark Kotsay thread (this thread seems to be about him more than Branyan), he was terrible in the 56 games he played in Oakland in 2007, after a decent 2006. He was also terrible in the 49 games he played in Boston after a good stint in Atlanta. After leaving Boaton, he was pretty good for the White Sox for the end of 2009 and had a down year with them last year.

 

Rather than simply aggregating all these stats into one easy-to-read ball (as is the preferred method of the SABR crowd), I just ask if there was a reason other then "he sucks" to determine why he had a terrible year (56 games) in OAK in 2007 and why he was bad in Boston. Was he hurt? Did he have a sick family member? Did something else contribute to these two stretches that caused his numbers to be down? They clearly have a big effect on his numbers in recent years, and maybe rather than just looking at his numbers and arguing that "the numbers don't lie," someone like Melvin who has access to inside information we'll never see should inquire as to what caused these massive downswings and if they are likely to recur. When you are only using 340 games over a period of four seasons, one or two stretches where someone is playing with an injury, could very well lead to greatly decreased numbers, and the projections would be way off. That is, unless we are expecting that player to play through the same injuries this season, which doesn't seem logical.

 

As to his defense, he was a DH for most of the past few years because he had better defenders on the team in front of him. Most anyone with sporadic PT in the field is going to look worse than they probably should. He's lost some steps, but he isn't the worst defender in baseball, as some would suggest. He would certainly play corner OF better than Branyan.

 

However, as I mentioned in an earlier post, if we were to sign Branyan, it wouldn't be to replace Kotsay. The first move would be to replace Nieves/Rivera. Then, when Morgan is healthy, we'd need to determine if we would replace Boggs or if we'd finally drop the 13th pitcher and go with a more normal (for any tema outside of Milwaukee) 12-man staff.

[logan82]

What are people's expectations of a pinch hitter/bench player? Honestly, that doesn't look like a terrible line for a bench player, IMO. Yes, that is "below replacement", but that would be for expectations of a starter, not a bench player, right?

 

Doesn't matter what we expect out of a bench player. It matters what we would expect out of Kotsay and Branyan. It matters who we think would be better. I am not really concerned how they will hit compared to a regular bench player.

[brwrsfan]

The 13th pitcher is just a complete and utter waste of a roster spot. Dillard has been up for over a week now and has yet to appear in a game. The 13th pitcher just isn't needed. Having Boggs on the roster would be much more beneficial then keeping a 13th pitcher to do absolutely nothing.

[logan82]

I agree that Kotsay is bad, but as I wrote in the other Mark Kotsay thread (this thread seems to be about him more than Branyan), he was terrible in the 56 games he played in Oakland in 2007, after a decent 2006. He was also terrible in the 49 games he played in Boston after a good stint in Atlanta. After leaving Boaton, he was pretty good for the White Sox for the end of 2009 and had a down year with them last year.

 

You are going to see goofy things when you start splitting out hitting stats into 50-60 game pieces. That is why nobody is doing it.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Actually, we only have 12 pitchers on the roster right now, so that shows how much of a waste 13 pitchers is. Dillard is our 12th pitcher, and McClendon is our 11th. Dillard hasn't been used yet, and McClendon is rarely used.

[Ennder]

Pick around the stats all you want but when a guy has been bad since 2006 it probably isn't because he was sick etc. His career was pretty much derailed by injuries and then he got old. The first thing that went when this happened was his ability to hit LHP, he used to hit them pretty well. Then his power went away, it was only really doubles power even in his prime but even that went away. He has also lost a lot of speed and athleticism. As for his defense, I don't think Branyan has played enough OF to really compare the two but neither should really be playing OF on a regular basis.

[CheezWizHed]

Doesn't matter what we expect out of a bench player. It matters what we would expect out of Kotsay and Branyan.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't improve on Kotsay. Its just that the main comparison made of Kotsay is a starting OFer, which really isn't fair. He is a 4th OF (5th with NM back) and a PH. The comment was made that his projection for the rest of the year is terrible, but for a bench player, I kind of doubt that.

 

It matters who we think would be better.

 

Hate to burst your bubble, but what we think isn't important either. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[monty57]

I agree that Kotsay is bad, but as I wrote in the other Mark Kotsay thread (this thread seems to be about him more than Branyan), he was terrible in the 56 games he played in Oakland in 2007, after a decent 2006. He was also terrible in the 49 games he played in Boston after a good stint in Atlanta. After leaving Boaton, he was pretty good for the White Sox for the end of 2009 and had a down year with them last year.

 

You are going to see goofy things when you start splitting out hitting stats into 50-60 game pieces. That is why nobody is doing it.

Yes they are. They are taking 340 games over the past four years and saying they have four years' worth of data. Four years' worth of data is closer to 648 games. As I stated in the same post you quoted from, "When you are only using 340 games over a period of four seasons, one or two stretches where someone is playing with an injury, could very well lead to greatly decreased numbers, and the projections would be way off." Do you disagree with this premise?

 

The first thing that went when this happened was his ability to hit LHP

 

As is evidenced by the 245 PA he's had in the last 700 games he's played. But no one is "splitting out hitting stats" but me.

 

Now, I'll agree that he's not a good player. I'll agree he has a hard time hitting lefties. I'll agree he has a hard time hitting righties. I'll agree that he is not a good defender. Could anyone else agree that when you only have 340 games worth of data over a four year period that any projections you make off of that data will have a huge standard deviation? Is it possible that there was an extenuating circumstance or two which led the stats to be worse than they should have been, and if so, wouldn't the projections necessarily be skewed negatively?

 

Kotsay has not been our problem this year. He has filled his role fairly well. Teach Prince how to throw the ball, as his poor throws home have cost us more games than Kotsay has cost us this season. Tell Morgan how to bunt, as his broken finger matched with Gomez's "close your eyes and swing" hitting style are the reasons Roenicke has to choose between Kotsay and journeyman Boggs for the backup CF. There are plenty of things to worry about instead of turning every thread into a why-Kotsay-is-the-center-of-all-that-is-wrong thread.

[logan82]

Doesn't matter what we expect out of a bench player. It matters what we would expect out of Kotsay and Branyan.

 

I'm not saying we shouldn't improve on Kotsay. Its just that the main comparison made of Kotsay is a starting OFer, which really isn't fair. He is a 4th OF (5th with NM back) and a PH. The comment was made that his projection for the rest of the year is terrible, but for a bench player, I kind of doubt that.

 

It matters who we think would be better.

 

Hate to burst your bubble, but what we think isn't important either. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

The projection for Branyan is better than the projection for Kotsay. That is what I am concerned with.

 

Of course it doesn't matter what we think but if we all go with that then there is no message board.

 

Yes they are. They are taking 340 games over the past four years and

saying they have four years' worth of data. Four years' worth of data is

closer to 648 games. As I stated in the same post you quoted from,

"When you are only using 340 games over a period of four seasons, one or

two stretches where someone is playing with an injury, could very well

lead to greatly decreased numbers, and the projections would be way

off." Do you disagree with this premise?

No they are not. You said yourself they are using 340 games. Who cares if it isn't enough PA for a full time player, besides you? It is plenty of PA to get a really good feel for how he should be expected to perform. Between 2008-2011 that is very close to 1000 PA. Plenty to get a good feel for a player. If you disagree start adding previous years in. You can still add in the roughly 1300 PA from 2005-2007 and you get the same picture. He is a bad hitter. Given Kotsay's age there is no real reason to expect a guy to be the same player he was 7 years ago, the last time Kotsay had a good season, no matter how you slice it.(baring PED's) So I guess no, I don't agree that his stats could be skewed by a few injuries here and there like you propose.

[TooLiveBrew]

The projection for Branyan is better than the projection for Kotsay.

 

Projections aside (sort of), Branyan has been the far more talented hitter in recent seasons. Kotsay will, in all likelihood, hit for a better avg. But Branyan will probably have a comparable or better OBP & has a lot more power. So this really boils down to whether or not people find strikeouts particularly annoying. Neither guy should really play any spot in the field aside from 1B or maybe corner OF.

 

Last 4 seasons OPS (just since it's widely known), including '11, oldest to most recent -

 

Kotsay: .732, .717, .683, .667

Branyan: .925, .867, .810, .629

 

In terms of offense, arguing for Kotsay over Branyan isn't too dissimilar from arguing for James Loney over Prince Fielder. It's possible that Branyan has slipped to a level where he's no better a hitter than Kotsay, but given recent history I think it's very unlikely. I would definitely take the gamble that Branyan will continue to be a more talented hitter than Kotsay. Even if you take the 4 small samples I cited above as a sign of something near a linear decline for Branyan, that would put him at a .760 OPS (crudely guesstimated), and still a significantly better hitter than Kotsay.

[monty57]

No they are not. You said yourself they are using 340 games. Who cares if it isn't enough PA for a full time player, besides you? It is plenty of PA to get a really good feel for how he should be expected to perform. Between 2008-2011 that is very close to 1000 PA. Plenty to get a good feel for a player. If you disagree start adding previous years in. You can still add in the roughly 1300 PA from 2005-2007 and you get the same picture. He is a bad hitter.

 

I never said he was good. What I said is that if he were playing through an injury for 100 or so of his 340 games, that it could significantly skew the numbers. I don't know if he was injured or not, but I will note that in Logan's book, if 1/3 of the data in a survey (which already contains a relatively small sample set) is potentially flawed, there is no possibility that it will effect the outcome of said survey. Forgive me for being so Renaissance as to ask a question about a data set which appears to me to have some odd fluctuations which may or may not have a reasonable explanation.

[rluzinski]

Could anyone else agree that when you only have 340 games worth of data over a four year period that any projections you make off of that data will have a huge standard deviation?

 

Of course I can agree with that. Statistically, the limited amount of data forces you to regress more to the mean. We are less sure that the data represents his true talent level because of limited sample, so we assume he's closer to average. The little bit he HAS played in the last few years has been bad and then we have to adjust for him being 35 years old, so that's why his projection is as bad as it is. He has roughly the same odds of being better or worse than that projection.

 

Kotsay has not been our problem this year.

 

I'm obviously far more concerned about the deficiencies of the starters; There is only so much damage a guy can do as a spot starter/pinch hitter. The amount of complaining that you hear about Kotsay isn't because people think he's single-handedly destroying the Brewers this eyar. Some just can't believe that the Brewers would play $800k plus incentives for such a poorly projected player and the way he's being used (batting second, playing CF on occasion) just adds fuel to the fire.

 

He has filled his role fairly well

 

I would have to disagree with that. Offensively, it's tempting to look at just his .354 OBP and suggest that he's been a plus but his .314 SLG negates the OBP and then some. Just remember that 10 points of SLG is equal to roughly 17 points of OBP. A player with the line of .256/.300/.344. would roughly have the same value of what Kotsay has done.

[monty57]

Could anyone else agree that when you only have 340 games worth of data over a four year period that any projections you make off of that data will have a huge standard deviation?

 

Of course I can agree with that. Statistically, the limited amount of data forces you to regress more to the mean. We are less sure that the data represents his true talent level because of limited sample, so we assume he's closer to average. The little bit he HAS played in the last few years has been bad and then we have to adjust for him being 35 years old, so that's why his projection is as bad as it is. He has roughly the same odds of being better or worse than that projection.

 

Kotsay has not been our problem this year.

 

I'm obviously far more concerned about the deficiencies of the starters; There is only so much damage a guy can do as a spot starter/pinch hitter. The amount of complaining that you hear about Kotsay isn't because people think he's single-handedly destroying the Brewers this eyar. Some just can't believe that the Brewers would play $800k plus incentives for such a poorly projected player and the way he's being used (batting second, playing CF on occasion) just adds fuel to the fire.

 

He has filled his role fairly well

 

I would have to disagree with that. Offensively, it's tempting to look at just his .354 OBP and suggest that he's been a plus but his .314 SLG negates the OBP and then some. Just remember that 10 points of SLG is equal to roughly 17 points of OBP. A player with the line of .256/.300/.344. would roughly have the same value of what Kotsay has done.

Thank you Russ.

 

I was in the group that didn't want Kotsay signed, and am in the group which feels he should be replaced if a reasonable replacement presents itself. Even though I don't necessarily like him, I find myself defending him against the onslaught of posts that make Kotsay out to be the worst player to ever don a uniform. The "role" to which I referred was that of backup outfielder forced into additional PT by injuries to Hart & Morgan. When one of your projected stars (Hart) gets hurt, you can generally only hope that his replacement will not completely flame out... I don't think Kotsay has completely flamed out.

 

In "defending" him, I noticed that he's had a couple of periods (2007 OAK & time in BOS) where he was abyssmally bad, which makes me think that there is a distinct possibility that something was wrong with him during that time (aka injury or off-field issues). This is something I will likely never know, but it is something Melvin should know if he took the step of asking a couple questions before signing the contract. IF this is the case, then MAYBE we can expect a little more than the projections would otherwise call for. Certainly not Braun, but not Pee-Wee Herman either.

 

To your final point, do the SABR stats take into account correlation among players? i.e. the Brewers have a lot of high-SLG players, so it would seem logical that the addition of a high-OBP player would have greater positive effect for them than the same player may have if added to a team made up of low-SLG/high-OBP players.

[brwrsfan]

I'm not going to get into the whole Kotsay sucks thing, though personally, I'm not a huge fan. If Morgan is back and healthy, that SHOULD push Kotsay to the 5th outfield spot. At that point, to me, it becomes who would be more valuable as a PH/Spot Starter at 1B or RF (assuming Branyan can play RF).

 

In my opinion, it's not even close. Branyan will likely have a lower BA and probably worse defense. However, I'd guess their OBP would be similar, as Branyan does walk a ton. He also DOES possess power that Kotsay has pretty much never had. We have virtually nobody on our bench that I would want to send up if we could really use a HR to tie a game and Branyan would definitely supply that.

 

Ideally, this player would very rarely start (assuming Morgan is healthy) and if we're talking just a bench role, I just don't see how Branyan wouldn't be better than Kotsay, even with his apparent decline.

[Warning Track Power]

After trying to get through this amazingly in deptht hread about the value of Kotsay v. Branyan, allow me to digress and go back to the original thought of the post.

Does bringing Branyan back improve the Crew? I don't know how I feel about that but I would love to see him back as the rest of the bench consists of Kotsays and Counsells, which lack the threat of a HR in the bat. I too could see him filling the role of Jason Giambi for the Brewers. A very spot starter who could PH and provide some thump and the potential to draw a walk and be PR for with Go Go when Morgan is back. Signing Branyan does nothing to make the bench less LH but the potential exists for the bench to better in the event he returns.

Dealing in reality. The most important thing in this discussion in my opinion: Kotsay, Counsell & Gomez aren't going anywhere and if it is being considered, it likely comes down the 3rd catcher and Boggs and his unfortunate position. Boggs doesn't really have a role on this team once Morgan comes back, as it is unlikely the Brewers will keep a 6th OF even if Branyan isn't signed. Looking at how a potential bench would look like with and without Branyan:

Bench 1: Branyan, Counsell, Kotsay, Gomez, Rivera (I refuse to believe Nieves is long for this team)
OR
Bench 2: Boggs, Counsell, Kotsay, Gomez, Rivera

I have to say I like the bench better in the 1st. It comes to late inning PH and that is what you are comparing with Boggs and Branyan. And I for one go with the eye test. I would feel more comfortable with Branyan up in the 9th inning, down 1 run, against the other team's closer than Boggs. I like Boggs. Wish we had a spot for him. But the reality of the 2011 Brewers is, that when healthy, Boggs is the 26th man due to the position he plays. Give me Branyan.

[logan82]

I was in the group that didn't want Kotsay signed, and am in the group which feels he should be replaced if a reasonable replacement presents itself. Even though I don't necessarily like him, I find myself defending him against the onslaught of posts that make Kotsay out to be the worst player to ever don a uniform.

Who in this thread is making Kotsay out to be the worst player to don a Brewers uniform? I see a post how Kotsay is a singles hitter which really isn't much of an exagertion and how Kotsay shouldn't/can't play the field. Not much of an exagertion there either. People think Branyan is a better option than Kotsay. I am not sure what point you are even trying to make anymore.