1/4 season done - how have the big trades worked out?

[TheRealMattKain]

We're at the 25% mark for the season so I thought it might be fun to take a look at the 2 big trades the Brewers made this past offseason.

Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie

Brett Lawrie (AAA Las Vegas)
.325/.381/.578/.960 14 2B, 8 HR, 9 SB, 7 E
Lawrie is tearing it up offensively in AAA and should be up in Toronto's Bautista-led lineup in the next couple months. Couldn't find much in the way of advanced defense stats, but his 7 Errors speak for themselves. His bat may be ready, but I would question his glove.

Shaun Marcum
5-1, 56.2 IP, 2.54 ERA (149 ERA+), 1.059 WHIP, 54K, 13BB
1.6 WAR
With Gallardo scuffling and Greinke still in preseason mode, Marcum has been no less than a rotation savior. His K9 and K:BB ratios are the best of his career. Marcum is in the top 10 in the league in ERA, ERA+, WHIP, Wins (for those who still use them), Ks, BB/9, K:BB, Win Probability Added, and a whole bunch more. Exactly what you would expect when a top-tier pitcher transitions to the NL.


Greinke/Betancourt for Escobar/Jeffress/Odorizzi/Cain

Alcides Escobar
.217/.252/.266/.517 (47 OPS+), 7 2B, 0 HR, 5 SB
-0.2 WAR
Brutal, brutal offense. Somehow he's worse than last year when he put up an ugly 67 OPS+. Baseball-reference has his OPS+ at 92 out of 94 qualifying AL hitters. Not good. It'll take some time to get a good grip on his defense, but, from the little bit I've seen, his D looks fine. End of the year metrics will probably show that it is closer to the good-great range. Still, his WAR is atrocious and Fangraphs even did a piece on Escobar's "incompetence":
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/alcides-escobars-magnified-incompetence

Jeremy Jeffress
15 IP, 3.60 ERA (112 ERA+), 1.27 WHIP, 13K, 8BB
0.1 WAR
He got roughed up last night in the 19-run debacle against Cleveland, but otherwise he's been solid and his 96.7 mph average fastball would be a nice addition to our bullpen. As expected lots of Ks and, of course, lots of walks.

Jake Odorizzi (A+ Wilmington)
3-0, 36.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 55K, 8BB
Yikes! I hope this one doesn't haunt us. It's only high A, but 55K with only 8 BB in 36.2 innings is fantastic at any level.

Lorenzo Cain (AAA Omaha)
.283/.362/.460/.822 10 2B, 2 HR, 5 SB
His AAA numbers look good. Not sure how long KC plans to hold him down and keep playing Melky Cabrera. I guess as long as Melky is hitting, there's no reason to rush Cain.

Zack Greinke
2-1, 15 IP, 6.60 ERA (58 ERA+), 1.20 WHIP, 20K, 2BB
0.5 WAR
The superficial stats, like ERA, are deceptive. 20K and 2BB in 15 innings has me guessing that Greinke could be getting ready to go on a dominant stretch. It stinks that he missed the first month of season due to a fluke injury, but now that he's back I'm a lot less worried about the front of our rotation.

Yuniesky Betancourt
.225/.248/.326/.574 (58 OPS+) 2HR, 0 SB
-0.3 WAR
Apparently in a battle with Escobar for worst offensive contribution. With 2 HR, his power is nowhere near advertised. Baseball-reference has his OPS+ at 86 out of 92 qualifying NL hitters - so, yeah, not much better than Escobar. There's plenty of argument on this board about Yuni, and we all know he is capable of the occasional flashy play:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=14645257
Still, we've also seen plenty of defensive misses as well. I'll just let his -0.3 WAR speak for itself.

It might be fun to look at some of the other deals and signings too (Saito, Morgan, etc.)

EDIT (added two more)

Nyjer Morgan for Cutter Dykstra

Cutter Dykstra (A+ Potomac)
.217/.238/.233/.471 2 2B, 0 HR, 5 SB
The move to the Nats organization has not been kind to Cutter. He's been absolutely abysmal so far. He's spent a little time at second and third, but most of his playing time has come at DH. A crummy hitting DH trying to move up in an NL organization - not good.

Nyjer Morgan
.379/.419/.586/1.006 2 2B, 2 3B, 15 games
.8 WAR
When he's been healthy, he's been terrific. Sadly, that hasn't been much. No way he can keep this up when he returns, but there is almost no way that he doesn't make the team better. If we get a return to his 2009 form, I think most fans will be happy.


Sergio Mitre for Chris Dickerson

Chris Dickerson (AAA Scranton)
.248/.370/.354/.724 7 2B, 1 HR, 8 SB, 21 BB
He's showing some good on base skills in AAA but his power is almost non-existent. If Swisher, Gardner, and Jones continue their mediocre play, he might get a shot in the bigs again this year.

Sergio Mitre
14.2 IP, 1.84 ERA (209 ERA+), 1.0.23 WHIP, 6K, 5BB
0.0 WAR
Mitre's been one of the best in our somewhat unpredictable bullpen. His 1.2 K:BB ratio makes me a little nervous. Is he really this good or is he getting lucky? I would suspect that there is certainly some luck involved. Still, in 54 innings in NY last year he managed to give up very few runs while putting up similar K and BB numbers.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Marcum has been sensational. The next best "acquisition" may have been bringing Marco Estrada back...he's been carrying Greinke's weight somewhat. An Honorable Mention to Nyjer Morgan who's been hurt too much but was a spark plug for awhile.

 

I sure hope Greinke is on top of this list by year end.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The Marcum acquisition has been absolutely huge for this team. Without him, we'd be in a lot of trouble right now. I'm sure Greinke will pick it up, and make that trade look good also. I think the Morgan acquisition will end up looking great by the end of the year also, and I have to agree that Estrada has been huge too. But for all we know, the biggest acquisition may not have been made yet. Who knows what Melvin may do at the deadline. May just be a few small moves to upgrade the pen and possibly SS, but that could be huge for a playoff run.

[Joseph]

Shaun Marcum is ridiculously good. One of the best deals of the offseason for ANY team.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I had a feeling all along that the Marcum deal would be our best deal in the end, and that might happen. Just had a good feeling about him moving from the AL East to the NL, when he was already pitching well to begin with.

[Raw Biz]

I've been a Marcum fan for the past 3 or 4 years (started with having him on my fantasy team). Before Greinke even got hurt I said that Marcum could easily be our best pitcher this year. After following him for a few years and knowing what his stuff was like, I figured the transition out of the AL East to the NL would make him even better. Hopefully he keeps it up.

[Tedaldtada]

Goldstein has a recent tweet regarding Lawrie here.

 

#BlueJays 3B Brett Lawrie was 3-for-3 with a 3B and HR today. After making 6 Es in his first 12 games at 3B, he's made 1 in last 27.

 

I would still do both trades in a heartbeat.

 

 

(edit: cleaned up links --1992)

[TheRealMattKain]

Chris Dickerson (AAA Scranton)

.248/.370/.354/.724 7 2B, 1 HR, 8 SB, 21 BB

He's showing some good on base skills in AAA but his power is almost non-existent. If Swisher, Gardner, and Jones continue their mediocre play, he might get a shot in the bigs again this year.

Looks like Dickerson *is* getting his chance. NY called him up and he's starting in RF today.

[ilovebeer]

I liked both traded, but I we will miis Jake.

[GAME05]

i've been curious about just this sort of thing lately and am very happy you posted this; thank you.

 

i was very happy with the Marcum trade when it happened and still am. not in a "we won the trade" way, because it was fair on both sides. i think half of why Melvin made these two trades isn't for the "win now" philosophy, but as a way of acquiring very good, signable pitchers for the roster. if we extend just one of them at market value it's a win for us because of the difficulties of finding these types of players in free agency.

 

a hitter with the ability of Lawrie is tough to lose, but having an ace pitcher for two years at a relatively cheap price is invaluable.

 

out of everyone, it was hardest to see Odorizzi go. i know he was still just an A-ball pitcher at the time, but it's a very rare pitcher even in the minor leagues who looks like a legit ace. someone that good can't just be replaced by a 1st round draft pick.

 

i expect Greinke to quickly get to his dominant ways, as i think everyone does. and even without Fielder next year, that makes us a tough team to beat for this season and next. i think of the Reds and how long it took them to get this good, so it's hard to argue that the two moves weren't the right thing to do.

 

i'll miss Jeffress, though. even though many people don't think so, i think he'll soon be a pretty decent #3 starting pitcher. i guess he reminds me a lot of Negebauer.

[Gobias Industries]

Nice breakdown.

 

I still like all these deals, as I did at the time they were made too.

 

Lawrie is gonna be very good but he's also a grade A douchebag, so I have no problem losing a guy like that. Marcum has been terrific...just gotta hope he stays healthy.

 

Greinke trade still looks fine. I think Jeffress tops out as a closer and Cain will never be more than an average starting CFer (still pretty valuable). I also think a Gomez/Plush platoon>Cain though for this yr though. Escobar is TERRIBLE. I said after about 200 ab's last year that he's basically a glorified Ronny Cedeno and his line this yr doesn't make me wanna sway my opinion on that. He's pretty good with the glove, but it's not gonna make up for his Brandon Wood-esque slash line.

 

Obviously, Odorizzi hurts to lose. I hope he has a nice career for them.

 

The other 2 trades have been nice little moves. No complaints there either.

[RockCoCougars]

#Winning.

[SenatorShriv]

Lawrie will have a solid career and may be an all-star level player but he wouldn't be helping us this year unless we traded Weeks. Odorizzi will probably have a strong career in the big leagues as well but we have a couple of years to fill the gap in the system created when we lost him. (Score for this season = no loss)

 

Jeffress is putting together a nice season but I don't think that we're going to be kicking ourselves too badly once Greinke starts to get on a roll. (score for this season = slight loss to the bullpen)

 

Cain was always a solid fourth outfielder in my mind and I had / have little confidence in Escobar's bat ever being more than a number 7 or 8 hitter. Neither are big loses. (score for this season = very small loss)

 

Adding Marcum is a very BIG gain for the Brewers this season. The addition of Greinke has been minimal so far but will be huge by the end of the year.

 

1/4 through the season we're ahead on the trade. At the end of the year we will be way ahead. Even next year I think that we'll still be glad we made the moves even if we don't make the playoffs. We just didn't give up many irreplaceable pieces of the team.

[endaround]

If Jeffress was on the Brewers right now people would be going crazy with the amount of walks he gives up

[fondybrewfan]

The only guy I was really unhappy about parting with was Odorizzi; if only KC wanted Mark Rogers instead....

 

He would have been a pretty nice replacement when and if we lose Wolf, Marcum, or Grienke after 2012.

 

With as bad as Betancourt has been; it is amazing that the SS swap has basically been a wash. I don't know if anyone expected Alcides to struggle this much on offense.

 

Also goes without saying that Cain would look pretty good in CF right now.

 

I still would do each of these trades again in a heartbeat

[JohnBriggs12]

In looking at the Greinke deal, you can't ignore what plan B was. If they had not made that deal they likely would have added a pitcher. Pavano was the most highly mentioned and while he's been bad, 2-4, 5.89, I caught a game he pitched recently and Blyleven seemed convinced he had suffered a lot of bad luck so far and wasn't nearly as bad as his numbers.

 

Another name that had cropped up the Brewers had interest in was Jeff Francis. Francis started off the year with 4 straight quality starts and has struggled some since. Still he's healthy and that was the big question.

 

Then there is Estrada who has been a revelation.

 

Greinke has yet to prove his worth. They gave up a ton (mostly Jeffress and Odorizzi) to get him. He's going to have to string together good starts or 4-5 years from now we'll be looking at Odorizzi in All Star games and be constantly reminded he was once Brewer property.

 

Mitre was a steal. He needs to be used more in close games. He's a sinker ball guy so I don't worry that his K rate isn't all that high. He gets outs efficiently.

[owbc]

It should also be mentioned that the Brewers were 16-26 at this point last year, so they are 4 games better off in the standings as well.

[rluzinski]

"Greinke has yet to prove his worth"

 

This is a very interesting thread but no player has had the chance to prove anything yet.

[JohnBriggs12]

Missing in this discussion is the "trade" of Carlos Villanueva to the Blue Jays for cash.

 

Villanueva is 1-0 with a 1.48 ERA in 24 1/3 IP with 21 K's and 10 BB. He's posted a WHIP of .822. His opponent batting average is a paltry .132 and opponent OPS is .454. His WAR sits at 0.8.

 

No stats are available on "cash", though it's safe to say that Sean Green (5.40 ERA) probably never pitches for Brewers if Villanueva is kept. Considering Villanueva's ability to get out lefthanders (they are hitting .143 off him this year), his presence might well have kept Stetter (5.14 ERA) off the roster too.

 

Melvin appears to have really "sold low" on Carlos.

[JohnBriggs12]

"Greinke has yet to prove his worth"

 

This is a very interesting thread but no player has had the chance to prove anything yet.

A better phrasing might be his results so far are not up to the standards that one would expect of someone that a team spent so much to acquire.

 

Obviously all the deals are in the context of 1/4 of a season and therefore incomplete.

[cwolf2012]

"Villanueva is 1-0 with a 1.48 ERA in 24 1/3 IP with 21 K's and 10 BB. He's posted a WHIP of .822. His opponent batting average is a paltry .132 and opponent OPS is .454. His WAR sits at 0.8."

 

His BABIP against is .148. I'm not going to argue that he isn't better than Green. He most definitely is, but don't put too much weight in these results. There's a lot of luck in there too.

[FVBrewerFan]

Villy has always had stretches like this. He has also had stretches where nothing stays in the park, and i'm sure we'll see that soon enough.

[warwarii]

Too early to tell on the Greinke deal, and from the brewer's standpoint depends almost entirely on whether we make the post season this year or next. We gave up a ton to get Geinke--an exciting deal, but if we don't win it's a "bad deal." At least half of who we gave kc will be solid if not better. Marcum deal seems to be working out for both sides; he's been amazing, I recognized his value but admittedly undervalued him. Lawrie's O at AAA vegas couldn't be much better at this point.

[chadomac]

Agreed, it's way too early to even talk about the Greinke deal at this point. Marcum has been great, of course.

[chickinbrickin]

I already really like the Marcum deal, but if we can lock him up for a few more years I love it. Lawrie will be solid, but I will take Marcums pitching over Lawries bat any day. Also Lawrie is a huge tool, and from everything I heard he isn't the best locker room guy.

 

The Cutter deal was great. If Morgan can stay healthy and even produce a little bit it will be a steal. I don't see Cutter even sniffing the big leagues in his career.

 

Greinke deal, TBD. Currently, I am missing Alcides D, Jeffress arm in the pen, and Cains great D and solid ABs. I was looking forward to having Cain our everyday CF before this trade happened. Not to mention Odorizzi has been unreal this year in the minors. If Greinke comes around the next few weeks once his arm strength is back I will miss the guys we traded a lot less.

 

I would like to see them try to sign Greinke, but I don't think they can keep him and Marcum. I would like to see them sign Marcum and deal Greinke for prospects to help rebuild our farm system if we can't resign both guys.

 

All in all I like all of the trades so far.