Who do you expect to have more long-term success? Greinke or Marcum?

[derflotr]

1a. (implied) Who would you rather have signed to a long term deal right now?

I've been going back and forth on this in my head for a few days now. Discuss.

[Oxy]

I think Marcum is a safer bet to stay consistent. His peak value isn't as high as Greinke's though. Thus, I'd rather have Marcum for the regular season and I'd rather have Greinke for the playoffs. Can we work something like that out?

[RockCoCougars]

Greinke because he's two years younger. Marcum will be 32 years old the first season after he hits free agency. I will say that I've been very impressed with Marcum, but if he loses a few MPH on the fastball, it will be about the same speed as everything else. The guy certainly knows how to pitch though.

[Warning Track Power]

Zack Greinke, even though I thoroughly enjoy the 87 MPH fastball baffling hitters. Shaun Marcum is nothing short of a silent assassin on the mound. Unreal "pitcher." Having said that, Greinke has the stuff and *mental makeup* to become an all-time great. As a comparison, Greinke is the hall of famer, while Marcum is the perrenial all star.

 

*I think the mental makeup part is his competitive nature and lack of care about any of the externalities that come with being a big leaguer. He seems to just want to pitch, pitch well, win and dominate while winning. He doesn't seem to care about being an MLB superstar.*

 

Warning Track Power's absolutely baseless fear that is based on no reason whatsoever:

 

Shaun Marcum turns into Jeff Suppan when he no longer hits his spots.

[TheCrew07]

This is an interesting question.

 

Clearly Greinke has the better stuff, but outside of one phenomenal season, he hasn't been all that great stastically. On the hand Marcum has already had TJ surgery and has anemic velocity.

 

As long as Marcum can maintain his control and velocity differential between pitches, he'll be successful, but that decline is exceedingly difficult to project. I think the lack of velocity separation between his pitches was Suppan's biggest problem, It's just something that's easier to see over a 3 year span than comparing 1 season to the next. I've always liked Marcum, I still think that he should have been the single target of the Overbay trade, but he's not someone I would resign given his history. I think that Marcum will perform more consistently than Grienke as long as his arm holds out and he retains his velocity differential between pitches, once I again I'm just not comfortable predicting how long that will last.

 

I think Greinke is getting quite a bit of mileage out of his one great season. He's obviously an extremely talented pitcher, a fantastic all around athlete, and a good hitter, but outside of that one season he's just never been as consistently dominant as he should be. He's not in the same class as a Halladay or Sabathia even with similar stuff, but I think we paid that kind of price for him. I think on average he's a very good #2 with the potential to be dominant, and someone will overpay for his services when he hits FA. He hasn't been hurt yet, so at some point you'd think he'll need surgery like every pitcher does. Finally, given his mental disorder, I'm not certain you can pencil him in to remain in the game long term or be certain which Greinke you're going to get? Are you going to get 2009 Greinke or the 2010 version that admittedly checked out when his team continued to struggle? I'm just not sure how to project Greinke at all, not just from a mental standpoint, but he's unique in that his FB velocity really isn't dropping as he gets older either, at some point you'd think it would have to start dropping off wouldn't you?

 

I'm not sure there's a right answer here, there's plenty of risk both ways long-term. I guess I'll say Marcum, but it's more of a coin flip than it should be given the talent difference between the 2 pitchers.

[logan82]

Greinke has similar peripherals to Sabathia.(k/9, bb/9, FIP, xFIP) The only big difference is Sabathia has played for good teams and has pitched more innings. I guess the mental health may be a valid concern but it really doesn't seem to be a problem the last few years. Marcum is older so I would go with Greinke.

[cwolf2012]

Marcum has bad mechanics, Greinke does not. Greinke is also younger.

 

This is a no-brainer for me.

[rluzinski]

Greinke projects to be the better pitcher, is younger and has a better injury history. He's projected at around a 3.3-3.4 ERA. A good #2? I don't think almost anyone would agree with that.

 

Are we supposed to tank into consideration the fact that Greinke will get the much larger contract?

[bucksman4]

If money factors in, I'd rather take the "value" player in Marcum. But, if money is no issue and you're talking raw pitching potential going forward, Greinke wins out easily.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really have grown to love Marcum, but I'm with cwolf. This isn't tough. It's Greinke.

[Invader3K]

Just realized Greinke threw an eephus pitch last night, so I have to go with him.

[Ennder]

Greinke has had better peripherals than Marcum by a pretty wide margin, the biggest difference has been Greinke has pitched behind the worst defenses in baseball for most of his career with some of the worst relievers in baseball sabotaging his ERA as well. (that isn't likely to change as a Brewer).

[NievesNoNO]

I'll take Greinke on the contract part. I'm not sure it's so clear cut on who has more long-terms success though. I think Marcum might be one of those rare pitchers, ala Jamie Moyer, who could pitch pretty effectively until he's 40. While Greinke has the superior arm and stuff I don't think he'll hesitate to hang it up once he can't dial up the fastball anymore. Not sure when that physical decline will come, but he doesn't strike me as the type that's going to refine his other pitches to compliment his 89 MPH fastball to try and win some more games in his career.

[rluzinski]

30 out of 30 GMs would pick Greinke, considering equal long term contracts. I really don't think that is a stretch to say that.

[southpaw121505]

Greinke. He has the stuff to consistently get guys out that have seen him before. Marcum is much more likely to get "figured out" by guys that have seen him a few years in a row.

[thebruce44]

I'll take Greinke on the contract part. I'm not sure it's so clear cut on who has more long-terms success though. I think Marcum might be one of those rare pitchers, ala Jamie Moyer, who could pitch pretty effectively until he's 40. While Greinke has the superior arm and stuff I don't think he'll hesitate to hang it up once he can't dial up the fastball anymore. Not sure when that physical decline will come, but he doesn't strike me as the type that's going to refine his other pitches to compliment his 89 MPH fastball to try and win some more games in his career.

He has refined a new pitch nearly every year he has been in the bigs so not sure why you think he wouldn't work to be effective when his velocity starts to leave him.

As others have said, I don't really see how anyone could not pick Greinke. Perhaps its just that he has been more effective in a Brewer uni. Looking at their stuff and overall body of work though I have to agree that every GM in baseball would say Greinke.