Defining Moment

[Tennik]

I know it's early in the season, but this next 4 series may be the defining moment in the season. The combined record of Brewer opponents in the next 4 series is 47-56 as they play the Padres (twice). Pirates, and Dodgers. The end of the month gets brutal as they get the Nationals, Giants, and Reds. June is equally brutal, as they have series against the Marlins, Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees. Records aside those will be tough series. The Brewers need a winning record these next 4 series to set themselves up for a chance at a .500 record by the all star break. The late season schedule gets easier, but if they are too far out at the break Prince will most certainly be gone, and there will be no move for a replacement shortstop. The Brewers are now at full strength, and need to take advantage of some weaker opponents by making a run NOW. Anything less than 7-3 in the next 10 will be a significant blow to the Brewers chances moving forward.

[Invader3K]

Well, let's hope it starts tonight. Greinke's first home start as a Brewer. It's time for this team to start hitting and turn this thing around.

[owbc]

I agree that is important to beat up on the weaker teams, but nobody is going to remember in September how the Brewers do in the next few weeks. The "defining moment" will come when they play the really good teams in June. Everyone will be paying attention then, when they go to New York and Boston.

 

As for the next 10 games, even 5-5 or 4-6 doesn't doom them. They just need to get back to playing consistent baseball. It's a long season. It would be great if they go 7-3, but there is really no evidence to suggest that the offense is suddenly going to wake up, unless they are really bipolar.

[Invader3K]

Well, I think Tennik's point was that the Brewers need to do everything they can to shore up their record now, before facing those tough teams in June. I agree though that even just playing roughly .500 ball right now wouldn't be the end of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm having a hard time finding a weaker team than the one wearing Brewer uniforms. I'll go along with this being defining though. It may well define them as sellers at the deadline. At least they have plenty to sell: Fielder, Grienke, Wolf between them might bring back a pretty good haul.

[owbc]

I agree, but I guess my disagreement is with the term "Defining Moment". I think the next few weeks are the "easy part" and June has the potential to be the "Defining Moment".

 

But no matter how you look at it, it's May 9th and they still have to find a way to win another 75+ games, so they better get going fast.

[monty57]

At least they have plenty to sell: Fielder, Grienke, Wolf

 

That would be wonderful... we emptied our system for two months of Greinke. Really, if they're sellers, I think Prince is the only big player to go, and they'd probably look for long-term help at SS/CF and probably high upside minor league pitching. Trading Prince when you already have your 2012 MLB rotation set would allow us to get much more talent than we were offered last season when we were looking for a young, MLB-proven starter. I doubt we'd throw in the towel on the 2012 season by trading Greinke and/or Wolf, when we should still have a great starting rotation and could very well field a good team. At the very least, we will need to see how the AAA guys are pitching before we make a trade.

 

That said, it's really disappointing that it's May and we're thinking about selling, when I figured this would be a playoff season. We really need to get this ship turned around quickly.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This upcoming 7 game winning streak WILL be a defining moment. Starting tonight.

 

BOOK IT! :D

[Warning Track Power]

Regardless of how poor we have played the past 13 games (3-10) I will refuse to believe this season will be a total loss unless we blow this homestand. I know, I know, it's May. However, the Padres hit worse than us and the Pirates are still the Pirates regardless of record. If the Brewers stumble to a 3-3 or dare I say 2-4 record this week, I will officially lose hope they can turn this thing around.

 

With Greinke going twice, Yo looking recovered and Marcum still dealing, this should be a 5-1 turnaround week, leaving us at a not so God awful 19-21.

[logan82]

I think the defining moment of this season so far has been 2/3/11. All the bad roster decisions were influenced by the move made on that date.

[RockCoCougars]

Frankly, I think the defining moment of this team may have been Saturday. By winning that game they stemmed the tide a little bit, and more importantly Gallardo perhaps started a turn around. It would have been easier to say this had they won yesterday, but they were staring a double digit losing streak (a la last year) straight in the face.

[joepepsi]

Losing the series in Houston hurt.

 

Being swept in Atlanta was embarrassing, but Atlanta has the lowest ERA in the league. Losing the series at St. Louis wasn't too surprising. The Cardinals have scored more runs than any team in the league.

 

So, the reality is, the Brewers just played 4 games on the road against the best pitching staff in the league, followed by 3 games on the road against the best offense.

 

If you are going to compete, you have to beat good teams once in a while. Well, they finish the season series against the Braves going 3-5. I'll take that; the Braves look pretty good. They'll have plenty of opportunities to take a series or two from the Cardinals.

 

It was a crappy road trip, but it's not the end of the world. Those are a couple hot teams right now.

[benji]

I think the defining moment of this season so far has been 2/3/11. All the bad roster decisions were influenced by the move made on that date.

Are you referring to the dropping of Roque Mercedes or Kotsay?

[rluzinski]

With Greinke going twice, Yo looking recovered and Marcum still dealing, this should be a 5-1 turnaround week, leaving us at a not so God awful 19-2

 

I agree that the way the rotation lined up makes the prospects that much better but no team "should" have a .833 WP over any stretch of games. Even with the win today, the most likely outcome is not 4-1 over the next 5 games.

[SenatorShriv]

This thread is basically getting at what I was trying to ask in a question over in the stats forum; how long can we continue to play below .500 or even around .500 before the season is lost and we're sellers at the deadline. I don't know the answer, but I feel like that make or break point is coming soon. Normally I would hesitate to call a homestand in May "make or break" but I think this may be a little different given the circumstances. We have to start digging ourselves out of this hole eventually and if we can't do it now, I think the odds are against us doing it against a tougher schedule later in the summer.

[mothershipconnection]

How long you wait to declare yourself a seller when you're losing will depend largely on what is offered. If they're still mediocre in early July, but blown away by an offer for Prince, you become a seller. You always need to weigh the benefit of a trade against keeping him and getting comp picks. If teams offer a pile of spare parts, you keep Prince even if you're a good distance out of the race, because the picks should be at least as valuable.

[Invader3K]

Last night on the way home of the game, someone on the radio (forget which station), mentioned how the 9 game losing streak this team had last May basically sunk them and they were never really in contention after that. I wouldn't say our situation is quite as dire at this point, but it's really important to win a few series right now, especially against beatable teams at home.

[Warning Track Power]

With Greinke going twice, Yo looking recovered and Marcum still dealing, this should be a 5-1 turnaround week, leaving us at a not so God awful 19-2

 

I agree that the way the rotation lined up makes the prospects that much better but no team "should" have a .833 WP over any stretch of games. Even with the win today, the most likely outcome is not 4-1 over the next 5 games.

I agree with you that winning series should be the goal always, meaning a 4-2 homestand, and with your premise about .833 baseball. However, in my opinion, when a team with as much overall talent as the Brewers plays .200 baseball over 10 games, I think it is reasonable to expect a dramatic swing to the other side against the worst offense in the NL, as well as the Pirates. My expectations would be tempered a bit if we were playing the Giants or Nationals but I feel if we are contenders this season, we should be able to make up some ground this week given the opponents.

[Oxy]

This thread is basically getting at what I was trying to ask in a question over in the stats forum; how long can we continue to play below .500 or even around .500 before the season is lost and we're sellers at the deadline. I don't know the answer, but I feel like that make or break point is coming soon. Normally I would hesitate to call a homestand in May "make or break" but I think this may be a little different given the circumstances. We have to start digging ourselves out of this hole eventually and if we can't do it now, I think the odds are against us doing it against a tougher schedule later in the summer.

Nothing is in a vacuum, so it's really impossible to say "if we are 3 games under .500 at the all-star break, we are sellers." As mothership stated, it depends what is on the trade table, but it also depends on the rest of the teams in the division and league. We could be under .500 but less than 5 games out of first and only a couple game out from the wild-card. Who knows at this point.

[rluzinski]

"However, in my opinion, when a team with as much overall talent as the Brewers plays .200 baseball over 10 games, I think it is reasonable to expect a dramatic swing to the other side against the worst offense in the NL, as well as the Pirates."

 

1. The Brewers are a good team but no one projected them as elite. I saw projections from around 85-88 wins. That's a marginal playoff team.

 

2. I think you are falling for the gambler's fallacy. How the Brewers performed in the previous road trip has virtually no bearing on how we expect them to perform now.

 

3. As I alluded to in my previous response, I don't care who you are playing, you aren't going to expect any team to play at such an elevated win percentage. Sure, you will see it from time to time just like you will flip 5 out from 6 heads in a row from time to time. Possible not probable.

 

Just to give some perspective, Greinke yesterday and now Marcum today are going up against an apparently very bad offensive team. Vegas odds resulting win probability for both games:

 

Greinke Game: -142 59% win probability

Marcum Game: -170 63% win probability

 

Those are fairly typical lines for a pretty strong favorite.

 

It's fair to say that if the Brewers are going to quickly get back in the race, this is the place to do it. The Brewers are at home and are facing pretty weak teams. It's not fair to say that the Brewers should be expected to take 5 of the next 6. The most likely outcome for the next 6 games is somewhere between 3-3 and 4-2.

[brwrsfan]

I think of a defining moment as one play that exemplifes the team. Or one play that we can look back on and think "that sparked us".

 

And maybe, just maybe, that play happened last night. The Betancourt to Weeks double play in the 8th inning last night was spectacular. Sometimes, it just takes one moment, one play, anything to make the team think that good things can happen and they start playing with more fire or energy. If that ball gets through, it's maybe first and third, no outs and a run in. Instead it's bases empty with a run in and two outs. Maybe that was the play that gets them going. I hope so at least.

 

I was there last night and there was just a buzz in the air after that play. Something that's been missing all season.

[rluzinski]

I think it was being nearly no hit. The 2007 Brewers went 12-2 after being no hit by Verlandar.

[Oxy]

I think it was being nearly no hit. The 2007 Brewers went 12-2 after being no hit by Verlandar.

Which near no-hitter was that? There's been a few of them in the past week...

[brwrsfan]

How about last night as the defining moment? Not giving up, tieing it twice and then snatching a victory from the jaws of defeat with a walkoff bomb....has to be the highlight of the season to this point. Maybe this will spark us....I hope so.

[Invader3K]

How about last night as the defining moment? Not giving up, tieing it twice and then snatching a victory from the jaws of defeat with a walkoff bomb....has to be the highlight of the season to this point. Maybe this will spark us....I hope so.

Yeah, I was just thinking that. Last night had its ugly moments (Yuni botching what should have been a routine double play at a critical moment late in the game...) but the team exhibited a fighting spirit that's been somewhat lacking at times this season. Hopefully they keep it up.