Why is Austin Ross still in low A ball?

[paul253]

6 starts 37.2 innings pitched 22 hits, 11 walks 36ks and a 1.43 ERA for a 22 year old starting pitcher in low A ball. Why hasn't he been promoted yet?

[TheCrew07]

Because he hasn't even pitched 40 IP? I don't recall any first time A baller promoted by the Brewers before June?

 

I'm not saying he's been getting lucky, because he's clearly dominated A ball, but his velocity is ordinary for a RHP, it's just average. I'd be much more excited if he had the raw power to blow hitters away like a Rogers. Right now from where I'm sitting he's a slightly more talented Mike Fiers, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up in AA by the end of the season. If he dominates for 2 months in WI and continues that level of dominance for 2 months in BC, he could get that end of the season bump up to AA. Toby's idea of bumping him straight to AA is intriguing, but I would rather see Heckathorn bumped up first.

[YoungGeezy]

Since the Brewers forced Khris Davis to waste away in Wisconsin for a full season, nothing shocks more anymore. With that said, to early to promote. Come end of May I think he will move up. Guy has great off-speed stuff to go with a 90-93 fb not a bad combo when you can throw strikes

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree that it's still early, but yeah -- the Brewers seem to be pretty conservative when it comes to pushing players. I wish they would be a little more aggressive.

[JohnBriggs12]

I see no reason to hold Ross back. He's 22, not 19. Knowing the Brewers, they'll keep him at Appleton the entire first half. Personally, I'd have him on schedule to see Huntsville in August.

[paul253]

My thinking is this. He's not really a prospect as a 22 year old dominating low A ball hitters. He is more of a prospect as a 22 year old having success in AA. If he's not going to have success in AA, I'd rather know now than in 2013. I'd like to see him moved up to BC now. Give him 6-7 starts and re-evaluate him. If he is struggling or just average, keep him in BC all year. If he is pitching well with good secondary numbers, move him up again. What harm does it do to push college pitchers?

[TheCrew07]

I don't necessarily disagree, the counterpoint would be that teams have seen him enough in person now to have a good scouting report on what he does. College pitchers should hit the ground running A ball, so the test is to see if a player can maintain success as hitters make adjustments to him. He's been flat out dominant, but is it a hot streak or his he really just that much better than the competition? I haven't seen him pitch in person, I doubt I will this season as he'll be promoted by the time I get to a game, but I don't think you can really answer that question without seeing him pitch in person.

 

For example I saw Scarpetta pitch quite a bit in WI, that's just the way the schedule happened to break for me (I bought my tickets months ahead of time), and that's why I've never been as high on him as others on this site, he just wasn't consistently impressive in person. His curveball was impressive at times, but his overall performances just weren't. I saw pitchers that were impressive that season, 2009, but none of them were Brewer prospects.

[YoungGeezy]

I personally would also like to see him moved up for we get the small hope that Brooks Hall will get the call (once again Brewers baby players way to much so doubt it). That is one really discouraging thing about our rotation right now. Nelson, Howell, Miller should all be dominant right now and they have not. Ross starting in spring to now has really put himself in a postion where he is right there with Thornburg at the top of the group. Only issue is, we will have zero clue what we have with him until they decide to test him in AA. BC is a pitchers park and going against okay prospects and doesn't mean much. Just like Heckathorn who prob should have started in AA after getting a very good amount of innings in BC last season, Brewers baby them

[chickinbrickin]

Because he hasn't even pitched 40 IP? I don't recall any first time A baller promoted by the Brewers before June?

 

I'm not saying he's been getting lucky, because he's clearly dominated A ball, but his velocity is ordinary for a RHP, it's just average. I'd be much more excited if he had the raw power to blow hitters away like a Rogers. Right now from where I'm sitting he's a slightly more talented Mike Fiers, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up in AA by the end of the season. If he dominates for 2 months in WI and continues that level of dominance for 2 months in BC, he could get that end of the season bump up to AA. Toby's idea of bumping him straight to AA is intriguing, but I would rather see Heckathorn bumped up first.

 

All he can do is dominate who he faces and that is the only thing he has done so far. He is a little old for low-A though, but he is doing a little better than another 22 year old in A-ball last year named Eric Arnett. 90-93 isn't exactly ordinary, and when you have good off-speed stuff and good command you can be a very good pitcher. Has Rogers raw power ever done anything for him?

 

Too many strong arm pitchers go no where becuase they never figure out how to pitch or command their pitches. It makes me want to puke every time I think about all the early round picks we have used on "power" pitchers the last few years who have done next to nothing.

[TooLiveBrew]

All he can do is dominate who he faces and that is the only thing he has done so far.

 

But TheCrew07's point was that it's not enough of a workload yet to know if Ross is actually this good, or just on a hot streak.

 

 

Has Rogers raw power ever done anything for him?

 

Yeah, he held opposing batters to something like a .215 BAA last season, & strikes out a ton of batters.

[paul253]

But TheCrew07's point was that it's not enough of a workload yet to know if Ross is actually this good, or just on a hot streak.

 

I'm confident enough that 40 innings is enough to move past "hot streak". What I'm afraid of is that he'll have one bad start and everyone will be all "see I told you so". I just don't think he has anything left to prove as a 22 year old in low A ball.

[TheCrew07]

But TheCrew07's point was that it's not enough of a workload yet to know if Ross is actually this good, or just on a hot streak.

 

I'm confident enough that 40 innings is enough to move past "hot streak". What I'm afraid of is that he'll have one bad start and everyone will be all "see I told you so". I just don't think he has anything left to prove as a 22 year old in low A ball.

I'm not really big on "I told you so", you have nothing to worry about. If he continues to dominate he'll get his promotion, if he falters he won't, it's that simple for me. I want the system to develop quality pitching as much as anyone, but it's not like we have an immediate need at MLB. The way I see it we have 2 years before we'll need his services on a full time basis, so there's no really no rush here. If he hits AA by August and starts in AA next season, getting the bump up to AAA before the end of the year he'll be in very good shape. After following prospects on this site since 2003 I find it hard to get excited by players with averagish velocity who excel in the low the minors, so few of those guys have panned out for the Brewers that I'm basically always in "wait and see" mode. That doesn't mean I don't like them as prospects, it just means I'm cautiously optimistic, I've intentionally tempered my enthusiasm for such players since little Ben.

 

As for the 90-93... I've read differing accounts of his velocity and like I said I haven't seen him pitch in person so I'm not going to speculate on his exact velocity range. When I go to T-Rat games I sit right behind homeplate and get the velocity straight from the scouts or players charting pitches, not the stadium the gun. An average velocity in the 90-91 range is pretty average for a RHP in this era, and topping out at 93 isn't all that special for a 22 year old, where as Thornburg's 97 is.

 

He's had an excellent start to the season, and I hope he continues to dominate, but I don't want to the Brewers to get into this mindset of drafting and pushing college talent that will move fast but top out in AA.

[CheezWizHed]

An average velocity in the 90-91 range is pretty average for a RHP in this era

 

Do you mean for an A-baller, MLB SP, or major/minor leagues combined?

[TheCrew07]

An average velocity in the 90-91 range is pretty average for a RHP in this era

 

Do you mean for an A-baller, MLB SP, or major/minor leagues combined?

Right handed pitchers in general, regardless of level or role. If a highschool kid sits 90-91 topping out at 93 you hope he can add more velocity as he approaches his physical peak (projection). If the young man is 22-24 years old, the odds of him adding velocity aren't very good unless he has a major mechanical flaw in his delivery.

 

Relief pitchers can generally work more towards the upper end of their velocity range, more of a max effort delivery, where as a starting pitcher is going to generally work 3-5 MPH off their peak velocity, only going max effort when they need it.

 

 

[CheezWizHed]

If a highschool kid sits 90-91 topping out at 93 you hope he can add more velocity as he approaches his physical peak (projection). If the young man is 22-24 years old, the odds of him adding velocity aren't very good unless he has a major mechanical flaw in his delivery.

 

Right. My thought was that if he had an average fastball for an A-baller, that didn't project well for his future (being in the older range).

 

But if his FB is average for an MLB SP, then I think he has a good chance to be a #3-5 SP, since his control is excellent and seems to be an intelligent pitcher (granted it also could simply be that he is more advanced than the average A-baller).

[paul253]

How is his off speed pitch? People with good off speed pitches can get away with a fastball in the low 90's. Besides, it seems like lately the Brewers don't have very many pitchers than can even touch 92. Narveson, Wolf and Marcum this year. Capuano and Bush last year. Suppan before that. I don't think a mid 90s fastball is a prerequisite to be a successful major league pitcher, though it certainly helps.

[TheCrew07]

I hate to state the obvious but Narveson, Capuano, and Wolf are all LHP, the average LHP pitcher doesn't throw 90 MPH. How successful were Bush and Suppan? Marcum is pretty much the gold standard for soft tossing RHP, I wouldn't use him as the benchmark for much of anything.

 

I really don't know about Ross' #2 and #3 pitches, I haven't seen him pitch in person. He's the BA scouting report on him from the draft:

 

With Anthony Ranaudo a shell of his former self this spring, righthander Austin Ross became Louisiana State's most effective starter, going 5-4, 5.22 with 98 strikeouts in 88 innings. The 6-foot-2, 190-pounder also made eight relief appearances, and he projects as a middle reliever in pro ball. When he comes out of the bullpen, he has a 90-93 mph fastball and a solid breaking ball. He throws strikes, but perhaps too many to the extent that he's more hittable than he should be, and his well below-average changeup isn't effective at keeping lefties at bay.

 

If you don't think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy then why exactly do you want him pushed?

[And That]

If you don't think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy then why exactly do you want him pushed?

Because 3rd/4th starters have loads of value, too. Like I said, he can work on his changeup, which needs work, against AA hitters that have a better chance to hit his FB/SL combo. He's only going to get better by facing better competition.

[TheCrew07]

What makes him a better long-term option than Heckathorn? I understand what you're saying, but that's exactly what Heckathorn needs to work on as well and he has legit velocity. Heckathorn also has more time in the system, and he didn't start having success with the change until the all-star break was nearing last season. I get that you think Ross will just dominate A+ as well because his FB command is that good, but we don't need a 3/4 pitcher this year, and yes the system developing those guys is a hell of a lot better than paying $10 mil for them in free agency. I fully support that concept, as should everyone.

 

If he's not good enough to push one of our current pitchers out of the rotation then I think he's better served making short stops along the way, let him work the change while he's dominating A ball hitters. I agree that players make the greatest strides playing the best competition, but what if he's not ready? Every AA hitter can easily center on the FB if they know it's coming, I'm not certain throwing him into the fire is the best possible solution.

 

Personally, I'm much more interested in Heckathorn and Thornburg than I am in Ross in the long-term, and I've had that opinion since he was drafted and I read the above scouting report. Don't get me wrong, his start is extremely encouraging, I'd just rather go incrementally with him than push him like he's Mike Leake.

[And That]

What makes him a better long-term option than Heckathorn?

I don't think he is. I put Heckathorn at 12 and Ross at 23 on my last Power 50 ballot. I'm also not sure where I implied that.

 

As for Heckathorn, I think he should be in AA too, even though he's not as polished as Ross. Both are much better prospects than Bowman, and Merklinger should probably be in AAA. There's room for them both in Huntsville.

[chickinbrickin]

Went to the game tonight and saw him pitch. He has a smooth delivery and his fastball pops, and sits around 91-93 with his off-speed at 78-80. He had a ton of Ks again tonight with one rough inning. If he could develop a nice breaking pitch I think he has potential to be a 2 or a 3. I can't wait to see how he performs against better competition.

 

Braddock was awesome. 5 up 5 down with 5ks. Looked like a man among boys for obvious reasons. His fastball hit 97 a few times, but sat around 93.

[battlekow]

Went to the game tonight and saw him pitch. He has a smooth delivery and his fastball pops, and sits around 91-93 with his off-speed at 78-80. He had a ton of Ks again tonight with one rough inning. If he could develop a nice breaking pitch I think he has potential to be a 2 or a 3. I can't wait to see how he performs against better competition.

 

Braddock was awesome. 5 up 5 down with 5ks. Looked like a man among boys for obvious reasons. His fastball hit 97 a few times, but sat around 93.

Thanks for the scouting reports! Are those stadium gun readings or from scouts?

[CheezWizHed]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought Gallardo normally pitches in the 91-93 MPH range (obviously can hit around 95 at times)...

[chickinbrickin]

Went to the game tonight and saw him pitch. He has a smooth delivery and his fastball pops, and sits around 91-93 with his off-speed at 78-80. He had a ton of Ks again tonight with one rough inning. If he could develop a nice breaking pitch I think he has potential to be a 2 or a 3. I can't wait to see how he performs against better competition.

 

Braddock was awesome. 5 up 5 down with 5ks. Looked like a man among boys for obvious reasons. His fastball hit 97 a few times, but sat around 93.

Thanks for the scouting reports! Are those stadium gun readings or from scouts?

 

Stadium guns, but it should be pretty accurate. Braddock sat around 93 with the fastball according to the stadium gun, which is normal for him.

[TheCrew07]

What makes him a better long-term option than Heckathorn?

I don't think he is. I put Heckathorn at 12 and Ross at 23 on my last Power 50 ballot. I'm also not sure where I implied that.

 

As for Heckathorn, I think he should be in AA too, even though he's not as polished as Ross. Both are much better prospects than Bowman, and Merklinger should probably be in AAA. There's room for them both in Huntsville.

I agree completely as far as AA having room for both guys and I'm happy we agree overall. The "implied" was if Ross jumps past Heckathorn to AA, it would effectively put him in front of Heckathorn in the pecking order and possibly set back Heckathorn's development if they wouldn't open a AA slot for him. Ultimately I guess it doesn't matter, both guys just need to stay healthy and keep throwing pitches, and Heckathorn does have a bit more to work on than Ross.

 

It's just difficult to predict what Milwaukee is going to do. I think Peralta and Scarpetta are in AA for the year, unless Wily's game takes significant jump up in the near future. I believe the organizaiton wants to push him, but he just hasn't pitched well enough yet to warrant any discussion about a promotion. Sanchez... honestly I really don't care about him at all, I know I shouldn't say that, but I haven't put any time into researching him and nothing about his stat lines blows me away. Merklinger hasn't exactly earned a promotion to AAA, he's the token lefty SP in the upper part of the minors, and Bowman's peripherals don't support his ERA. I'd be fine ditching Sanchez and moving Bowman to the pen to make room for Ross and Heckathorn, the AA rotation would be exteremely interesting to follow. Hinton could easily be promoted to AAA, and there's 2 or 3 relievers on that Huntsville staff that I'd be willing to part with tomorrow, so I think room could easily be made, I'm just not sure the Brewers do it.