Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)

[logan82]

monty57 wrote:

He only had a .320 OBP over 2008-2010.

 

That's only slightly below average for a MLB OF. Plus, with such a limited number of PAs, the standard deviation would be quite high. Finally, his OBP was .340 w/ Atl, .286 & .291 w/ BOS, .349 & .306 w/ Chicago. Something screwy went on in Boston, bringing his numbers down. Then, he had a down year last year. Maybe this was predictable due to aging, maybe it was simply a down year, which everyone can have.

 

That was hitting a large majority of the time with the platoon advantage.

 

Which he will also have with the Brewers. So far this season he's had 73 ABs vs RHP & 4 against LHP.

With the platoon advantage a player should hit much better than average. For example, Hart's splits vs LHP .346/.488/.834 vs RHP .316/.465/.781. You will probably find a much bigger difference if you looked at players like Braun of Fielder. The fact that Kotsay is below average with the platoon advantage is pretty strong evidence that he is a bad hitter. With the platoon advantage he should be at least average. Lat year he hit like Gomez with the platoon advantage.

 

That's only slightly below average for a MLB OF. Plus, with such a

limited number of PAs, the standard deviation would be quite high.

Finally, his OBP was .340 w/ Atl, .286 & .291 w/ BOS, .349 &

.306 w/ Chicago. Something screwy went on in Boston, bringing his

numbers down. Then, he had a down year last year. Maybe this was

predictable due to aging, maybe it was simply a down year, which

everyone can have

Seeing as how he hasn't hit well since 2004 I think we can safely say that it is more than a down year. He has been bad with horrible years sprinkled in.

 

I don't disagree that Kotsay is below average as an all-around MLB OF.

That doesn't mean that he has no value, or that he shouldn't be on the

team

It does when there are better options. Boggs is a better option than Kotsay.

 

 

If we were talking about a guy who had success a year or two ago you might have a good point about his production. We are not though. We are talking about a guy who hasn't hit well in over half a decade.

[Raw Biz]

I've been as vocal as anyone about waiting to see. Gather information, let things play out. Heck LaRussa started Pujols at third and he is one of the most successful managers of our time so a start or two for Kotsay in center in acceptable to me. An occasional experiment is one thing. If this becomes a regular occurrence it is quite another.

Alright I have to ask...Are you Ron Roenicke?

What about that comment defended or thought it was a good idea to play him in center last night? I was agreeing with the general populous this is becoming more regular than I like. Geez.

I was joking about the Roenicke comment. It seemed like you were defending every single decision Roenicke made so I thought it was funny.

As for Kotsay, I really have no problem with his offense. He will draw some walks and every once in awhile collect a few hits like he did last night. Obviously his numbers will regress some over the course of the season. My problems is the fact that he's played so often and started twice already in CF. Anyone watching the game last night should be able to tell that he cost a run with allowing the single to fall in front of him (a ball that Gomez and probably Boggs and Hart if he was in CF would have caught), followed by the home run. He also drove in a couple of runs and got on base a few times. In the long run, however, his bad defense will probably outweigh his offense. I think the amount of plays he doesn't make in the field will outweigh anything he does offensively. Like I've said, he's fine as a 5th outfielder and getting the occasional start in RF. But last night was definitely not the norm and I think he will end up costing us more runs in the long run if he continues to start in CF. Hopefully this is all a moot point when Nyjer comes back.

 

[PKBadger]

logan3825 wrote: Seeing as how he hasn't hit well since 2004

That depends how you define "well". He's a bench player - I'm not expecting him to go out and make the All-Star team. You don't think a .758 is hitting well for a guy who rarely plays and carries low expectations?

If he can replicate his Atlanta numbers, I'll be ecstatic.

[endaround]

By well I'm sure he means a guy with a non-zero or so WAR. If Kotsay is limited to basically pinch hitting he'll be fine but that's because his defense is terrible. I mean if the Padres defense played well last night two of Kotsay's hit would have been outs instead so we are still seeing a huge flux in his stats.

[Thurston Fluff]

I was joking about the Roenicke comment. It seemed like you were defending every single decision Roenicke made so I thought it was funny.

 

Lets start over. Hi I'm BUC I'm cool with anyone who has Kurt Russel as an avatar. I know I can be difficult to argue with but I try to bring reasoned arguments and like those who do regardless of whether they agree with me or not. I like losing arguments because then I feel I learned something. That should not be confused with easy to argue against. I will defend a point until it is disproved or persuaded by other reasoned points to the contrary. I am not a fan of quick judgments of managers and GM's because of how hard it is to know what they know. I make up my mind much quicker than I should on players and probably too slow on management/ownership.

 

By well I'm sure he means a guy with a non-zero or so WAR.

 

I really wish that stat had never been created. WAR is useless. It uses defensive metrics that are pretty universally accepted as not accurate in the sample size it uses. I simply cannot understand why anyone would accept an output as accurate when it uses input that is known not to be. I understand the desire to want it to be useful. After all what better thing could there be for a fan than having something that combines everything necessary to know about a player in one easy number? To bad it's impossible to do.

[logan82]

If Kotsay is relegated to just pinch hitting against RHP I wouldn't have as much of a problem. The only problem I have is that Boggs is still probably as good hitting as Kotsay with the added benefit of being able to play defense. If we didn't have a better option Kotsay would be fine. As it is we have Boggs, Morgan(when he comes back), and Gamel in AAA. I prefer Gamel stay in AAA though. I hope when(if) Gamel comes up for inter-league play he actually gets a chance to play instead of Kotsay.

[DuWayne Steurer]

logan3825 wrote: Seeing as how he hasn't hit well since 2004

That depends how you define "well". He's a bench player - I'm not expecting him to go out and make the All-Star team. You don't think a .758 is hitting well for a guy who rarely plays and carries low expectations?

If he can replicate his Atlanta numbers, I'll be ecstatic.

Except he's not rarely playing, he's playing quite often. At this point, I can understand not arguing the results. A .758 OPS is more than they're *currently* getting out of Hart, Gomez, or anyone else in the OF not named Ryan Braun. I think when/if/when Kotsay starts to regress towards his expected numbers, if he continues to get regular playing time A.) Over Hart, or B.) In center field, then there will be something to seriously gripe about.

 

And really, it shouldn't be 'when', but 'right now' that Hart stops getting benched in favor of Kotsay. Yes, the results show us that at this point, Kotsay has been more productive offensively, but I don't think anybody realistically expects Kotsay to touch Hart offensively.

[monty57]

If Kotsay is relegated to just pinch hitting against RHP I wouldn't have as much of a problem. The only problem I have is that Boggs is still probably as good hitting as Kotsay with the added benefit of being able to play defense. If we didn't have a better option Kotsay would be fine. As it is we have Boggs, Morgan(when he comes back), and Gamel in AAA. I prefer Gamel stay in AAA though. I hope when(if) Gamel comes up for inter-league play he actually gets a chance to play instead of Kotsay.

 

Boggs is intriguing. I wanted him around from day 1, and I would like to see what he's got, but there is no certainty that you'd get more than you will out of Kotsay, so I'm not going to get bent out of shape about it. I will agree with you that Morgan should have played more when he was healthy, and I expect he will play more when he is once again healthy. I wholeheartedly agree on Gamel. When/if he is called up he had better get regular playing time and not get Macha'd.

 

And really, it shouldn't be 'when', but 'right now' that Hart stops getting benched in favor of Kotsay. Yes, the results show us that at this point, Kotsay has been more productive offensively, but I don't think anybody realistically expects Kotsay to touch Hart offensively.

 

I agree with this, but will caution that we don't know what we'll get out of Hart. "Bad Hart" is still probably better than Kotsay, but Hart seems to be a guy that will give you a .750 (SLG heavy) OPS for a season or an .850+ OPS for a season. There doesn't seem to be a middle ground. That said, he should definitely be starting every day at this point, and should be the regular #2 hitter at least until Morgan returns.

 

I mean if the Padres defense played well last night two of Kotsay's hit would have been outs instead so we are still seeing a huge flux in his stats.

 

...and if he were playing in any park other than SD, one of those two "outs" would have been a three-run HR. It's all those little variables that makes any "predictive stat" an educated guess. It doesn't take that much to make a bad player look good or a good player look bad, particularly for a part-time player over the course of a season.

[rluzinski]

I really wish that stat had never been created. WAR is useless. It uses defensive metrics that are pretty universally accepted as not accurate in the sample size it uses.

 

I certainly wouldn't be looking at the defensive (UZR) portion of any player's 2011 WAR at this point. The option is there to just look at the offensive and positional adjustment portion of WAR. But to be fair, he was referring to Kotsay's numbers since 2004. He wasn't always a starter during that time but he played in 638 games since 2005 and his UZR/Defensive WAR has been negative every year:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...d=1042&position=OF#value

 

I appreciate your skepticism of UZR. I'd be fine if its output was simply Great/good/average/mediocre/bad instead of this silly decimal stuff. I'd be fine if people mostly ignored a single season UZR. But Kotsay just hasn't been good for a long time.

[Oxy]

I appreciate your skepticism of UZR. I'd be fine if its output was simply Great/good/average/mediocre/bad instead of this silly decimal stuff. I'd be fine if people mostly ignored a single season UZR. But Kotsay just hasn't been good for a long time.

I'm not a huge fan of WAR, but if somebody is going to use it I think they better use the decimals; otherwise you have to make arbitrary cut-off points in between great/good/average/etc. which will STILL be based on some number but could totally benefit the perception of some guys and hurt other guys when they are on the borderline of the cut-off point. Much easier to just use the raw number and let people interpret it how they want instead of lumping players into tiers and slapping inappropriate labels on those tiers.

[Raw Biz]

Kotsay in CF again tonight. Hopefully he plays as well as he did last night but I won't hold my breath. Although if he does have another game like last night, Roenicke might want to start him in CF every game for the next month or so.

[logan82]

"I've liked how he has swung the bat all year," Roenicke said of Kotsay, who is batting .273 with seven RBI in 77 at-bats. "He gives you great at-bats."

Roenicke forfeits some speed in center by playing Kotsay over Carlos Gomez and there is a spacious center field at PETCO Park. But Roenicke thinks Kotsay is OK in center here because of the way the ballpark plays.

"It's big but the ball doesn't carry," said Roenicke.

 

I want to like Ron. Really I do but he needs to go at least a few days without saying or doing something that makes me shake my head. I was starting to come around on the guy Tuesday but here we are 2 Kotsay in CF days later and I am liking him less and less.

[TooLiveBrew]

Here, without any exaggeration, was RRR's depth chart against a RHP tonight:

 

Kotsay

Gomez

Rivera

Betancourt

... (?)

Boggs

 

I'm really starting to think that Roenicke doesn't have a clue how to manage this team.

 

 

EDIT: I don't think Tic-Tac-Toe Playing Chicken has been hired away by any other organization; might be time to get him on speed-dial.

[brains and braun]

Most of his decisions seem based on gut-level inklings and casual observation. Some would argue that quotes like the one above are merely for public consumption, but I haven't seen any evidence that suggests anything to the contrary thus far.

[logan82]

I think we need a new nickname for Roenicke. I vote for Westley or Dread Pirate Roenicke. I find myself saying inconceivable a lot.

[fondybrewfan]

So it is somehow RR's fault for having no bench whatsoever?

 

His options in the 9th inning against one of the best closers in the game were:

 

Yuni Betancourt

Mike Rivera

Brandon Boggs

Wil Nieves

 

I see this more of an issue with Melvin not giving RR any options whatsoever late in games. On most occasions he would also have Counsell or Kotsay but neither one of those guys are dependable pinch hitters either.

 

RR has been far from perfect; but when he has no depth whatsoever his options are pretty limited with what he can do late in innings. That was even moreso yesterday with Braun getting hurt.

 

RR definitely has some learning to do without a doubt; but the level of despise for the guy only 2 months into the job seems a little off base to me. We are really complaining that he pinch hit with Yuni B last night instead of Brandon freaking Boggs? Its not his fault his team chokes with RISP on the road. Unless someone knows of some magical speech RR can give to the players that gets them to hit on the road; I don't think he can really do much about that. Switching around guys in a lineup can only do so much.

[1992casey]

There's certainly an issue with the bench, and I agree that RRR hasn't been dealt the best hand. But when we're seeing comments like trwi7 points out, you really have to wonder.

Roenicke didn't say he would stick with Corey Hart in the No. 2 hole for the rest of the season. He said Hart isn't an ideal No. 2 hitter because he's not a contact hitter who can move runners around. But Roenicke said there was one advantage to batting Hart second.

I would think that a Corey Hart (at least last year's version) would move runners over just fine — probably better than the contact hitter that RRR seems to be pining for.

[monty57]

Casey, wouldn't you agree that Hart isn't an ideal #2 hitter? If I think of "ideal #2 hitter," I think of Robin Yount much more than Corey Hart.

 

Right now, with Weeks at #1, Braun at #3, and Fielder at #4, with the choices for #2 being Hart, McGehee, Yuni, Lucroy or Gomez, Hart is probably a good choice, although an arguement could be made for Lucroy. I take Roenicke saying that Hart may not be there all season to mean that once Morgan's back, he'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup (at least against RHP), which I am perfectly fine with. At that point, McGehee/Hart can man the 5/6 spots in the lineup.

[JohnBriggs12]

Casey, wouldn't you agree that Hart isn't an ideal #2 hitter? If I think of "ideal #2 hitter," I think of Robin Yount much more than Corey Hart.

 

Right now, with Weeks at #1, Braun at #3, and Fielder at #4, with the choices for #2 being Hart, McGehee, Yuni, Lucroy or Gomez, Hart is probably a good choice, although an arguement could be made for Lucroy. I take Roenicke saying that Hart may not be there all season to mean that once Morgan's back, he'll be the #2 hitter in the lineup (at least against RHP), which I am perfectly fine with. At that point, McGehee/Hart can man the 5/6 spots in the lineup.

Hart is far from an ideal #2. I'm not sure he's even that big of an upgrade over Gomez there to offset the loss of his RBI bat down in the 6th spot. I don't quite see Lucroy there either but it's not a horrible idea. When you think of ideal #2 hitters in the game today, you have to look at a guy like Placido Polanco. Polanco is a contact hitter, but more than that, he's able to utilize the entire field depending on situations. The Brewers don't really have that guy on their roster. When he plays, I'd use Kotsay in that spot myself. Kotsay is not a run producer, but he'll spray it around, and get deep in counts.

 

The key guy for the Brewers in that spot going forward has to be Morgan though. It remains to be seen how much he'll play, but when he does it's a much more balanced lineup.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think we can safely say DM and RRR don't view defense as that important. I think that is a mistake but hard to argue when the outfield defense didn't hurt us and Kotsay contributed on offense more than Gomez likely would have. Lets just give it some time to see what happens when all the players are available and the season wears on. If we have to use him I like the idea of playing Kotsay while he seems to be hitting as well as he's going to. I do like resting everyday players more early on than maybe some others would so maybe it's less of an issue to me early on. If Kotsay ends up with 450 ab's and he reverts to Kotsay then I'll be at the head of the Ron is an idiot mob. Well maybe not the head of it. That's a pretty big crowd already gathering.

 

 

I appreciate your skepticism of UZR. I'd be fine if its output was simply Great/good/average/mediocre/bad instead of this silly decimal stuff. I'd be fine if people mostly ignored a single season UZR. But Kotsay just hasn't been good for a long time.

 

I have a skepticism of single season UZR. Thus I have a skepticism of any stat that uses it in single season proportions. UZR, when used properly, gives us something useful and objective to look at in a very subjective area. That is a good tool to have. Just like any tool though it has to be used properly. I just think WAR uses UZR like someone using a hammer to drive in a screw.

 

But to be fair, he was referring to Kotsay's numbers since 2004. He wasn't always a starter during that time but he played in 638 games since 2005 and his UZR/Defensive WAR has been negative every year:

 

That's fair. One question I have that you could probably answer is how well does UZR work for part time or DH guys like Kotsay has been the last few years? I've looked up how WAR is calculated plenty of times and know the components of it but haven't figured out where WAR balances out the unequal proportion of events occurring? Seems wrong to weigh the UZR portion of an every day centerfielder and DH who plays the field twice a week the same and I haven't seen where they take that into account. If you know how they do it please do tell. It's bugged me for a while now.

[logan82]

I think we can safely say DM and RRR don't view defense as that important. I think that is a mistake but hard to argue when the outfield defense didn't hurt us and Kotsay contributed on offense more than Gomez likely would have.

 

We didn't lose a game because of the outfield defense in the last 2 but I think it is wrong to say it didn't hurt us. There were at least 2 balls that dropped for hits that Gomez more than likely could have caught in the last 2 games.

 

Lets just give it some time to see what happens when all the players are available and the season wears on.

 

I will change my mind if he starts making good decisions but he has time after time after time made less than optimal decisions. I will excuse the base running as a learning curve. I will excuse the bullpen management because I think when the pen pitches well you look like you are using it well and when it doesn't you look like a boob. The lineup on the other hand, not so much. There are clear good and bad decisions to be made and DPR has made the bad decisions way more often than the good ones.

[Thurston Fluff]

The lineup on the other hand, not so much. There are clear good and bad decisions to be made and DPR has made the bad decisions way more often than the good ones.

 

Hasn't there been studies done that showed lineups have very little effect on the outcome of games? Seems silly to fret over insignificant things to me.

[logan82]

Hasn't there been studies done that showed lineups have very little effect on the outcome of games? Seems silly to fret over insignificant things to me.

 

It does make a difference though. I believe it was something like 2-3 wins on average. If it was just a few games it would be one thing. It has been almost a quarter of the season with pretty consistent bad moves. Gomez 5 spots to high in the order is blatantly bad. Most of the studies compare optimal to typical. Gomez #2 is not even as good as a typical lineup. I know, "he hasn't had a full roster." Even with the roster he has been dealt, his decisions are still not good.

 

It may or may not have cost us a game at this point. That really isn't the point though. He is making less than optimal decisions and while that may be true for most managers his lineup decisions are blatantly bad so far. If the decision making continues as it has it will cost us games going forward.

[HOF4canrake]

I think the whole argument that the batting order matters little over the course of a season in terms of runs is extremely flawed. I love stats and see tremendous value in the incorporation of advanced statistics. However, unless you actually play out entire seasons - with human beings - batting in different spots, you will never truly know the impact of the construction of a lineup.

 

This is one case I truly don't believe simply plugging in numbers works. How do you factor in guys at the top of the lineup taking pitches, perhaps leading to a starter leaving early? What about situational hitting? How can you determine if one 2-hitter would bat batter with runners on base, or if the defense shifts against him, or how many outs he bats with, or how confident he feels batting in a certain spot in the order?

 

I feel there are simply way too many factors that cannot be calculated. In my time playing, coaching and covering baseball from high school to the majors, batting order means a lot to many players - especially in terms of confidence, comfort and the recognition of who is behind you or how many times guys are on base.

 

I'm not arguing that the 2nd hitter will automatically get more fastballs because A) the leadoff guy with speed is on base and B) you don't want to walk him with 3-4 coming up - but sometimes those things do play a factor. No mathematical equation can figure out how these things affect pitchers or hitters. These things matter on a per-game basis, which could lead to confidence or struggles in the long run.

[1992casey]

Casey, wouldn't you agree that Hart isn't an ideal #2 hitter? If I think of "ideal #2 hitter," I think of Robin Yount much more than Corey Hart.

 

Well, RRR's description makes me think of a poor hitter. A #2 hitter needs OBP and at least some degree of SLG. If he can offer that, he'll be moving runners over. Without shaking up Rickie, Ryan, and Prince, I think Corey becomes the best #2 on the team.

 

I'd love to see a manager really optimize his lineup, i.e. putting the best two hitters at #2 and #4, making sure there's reasonable power at leadoff, and choosing a #5 hitter that's better than the #3 hitter. Because nobody's doing that, I sure wouldn't expect it of Roenicke.