Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)

[cwolf2012]

"There are 5 others who have as many or more appearances."

 

All of those guys have been performing much better than Kameron, and have had significantly less stressful innings. Either way, simply because a guy like Nolan Ryan could throw 300 innings a year doesn't mean everyone can and should do it. If you're seriously trying to argue that he hasn't been overworked when he's tied for 3rd in appearances, then I don't know what to say.

[Raw Biz]

"There are 5 others who have as many or more appearances."

 

All of those guys have been performing much better than Kameron, and have had significantly less stressful innings. Either way, simply because a guy like Nolan Ryan could throw 300 innings a year doesn't mean everyone can and should do it. If you're seriously trying to argue that he hasn't been overworked when he's tied for 3rd in appearances, then I don't know what to say.

Exactly. Some guys can throw a ton of innings and still be effective. That doesn't seem to be the case with Loe. But obviously nobody is going to be able to change backupcatchers mind on this.

[Thurston Fluff]

All of those guys have been performing much better than Kameron, and have had significantly less stressful innings. Either way, simply because a guy like Nolan Ryan could throw 300 innings a year doesn't mean everyone can and should do it. If you're seriously trying to argue that he hasn't been overworked when he's tied for 3rd in appearances, then I don't know what to say.

 

I'm curious how you determine the stress level of all the pitchers? Not being snarky just would like to know where to find stress level evaluations. I would go with pitches per inning as one indicator but don't know where to find that off hand. Perhaps I am missing something. Here is how he has been used this season. Please show me the pattern that shows A- he isn't capable of the workload B- how his numbers are so much worse working multiple days in a row vs not and C- how his innings are somehow more stressful than these other guys.

 

What I see is two blow up and reasonable efforts beyond that. In one he had a couple days rest prior the other worked a couple in a row. aFter that blow up he worked the nexst day and was fine. I also see the last three days he worked in a row where he did pretty well. Zeros across the board two of three outing and one walk one K in the middle game. I'm sorry I just don't see any sort of pattern that tells me anything about his capabilities to work the way he is. Then again I don't see anything that tells me he is capable of it. That is more or less the point. People are making assertions on ridiculously small samples and extrapolating from that the manager is screwing the pooch. I'm simply saying he hasn't been used in some unthinkable way that isn't routinely done in the majors every single season. I am also saying the time to judge Loe or Ron's use of him has been to short to judge anything about either of them.

 

Exactly. Some guys can throw a ton of innings and still be effective. That doesn't seem to be the case with Loe. But obviously nobody is going to be able to change backupcatchers mind on this.

 

Time will change it if needed. Actual stats or information based on something tangible or remotely logical is another way to do so. Just saying something is true will not. As soon as you bring something other than everybody says he is or only apologists don't think so or there stats that say so but I'm to lazy to look it up you may find me easier to convince.

[GamelToe]

Lookie loo who's starting tonight...

[Raw Biz]

Kotsay starting in CF again tonight. I understand Gomez may need a break but why not Boggs? Does Roenicke have no faith in him whatsoever? I think Kotsay's defense will negate any walks that he can provide, especially in a ballpark like Petco. Nyjer can't get back soon enough.

[tstads20]

They're almost better off starting Hart in CF and Kotsay in RF. Almost.

 

Kotsay in CF is one thing. But at Petco park? You're just asking for the Padres to dink and dunk you to death.

[Funketown]

They're almost better off starting Hart in CF and Kotsay in RF. Almost.

 

Kotsay in CF is one thing. But at Petco park? You're just asking for the Padres to dink and dunk you to death.

Almost?

 

Someone should explain to Roenicke that just because Kotsay was a very good player in 2002 does not mean he is still a good player.

 

I'm almost surprised Roenicke hasn't asked Melvin about bringing Tim Salmon and Darin Erstad out of retirement. They played with the Angels and seem like Roenicke guys. I'm not sure whether or not this should be in blue.

[Thurston Fluff]

I've been as vocal as anyone about waiting to see. Gather information, let things play out. Heck LaRussa started Pujols at third and he is one of the most successful managers of our time so a start or two for Kotsay in center in acceptable to me. An occasional experiment is one thing. If this becomes a regular occurrence it is quite another.

[Raw Biz]

I've been as vocal as anyone about waiting to see. Gather information, let things play out. Heck LaRussa started Pujols at third and he is one of the most successful managers of our time so a start or two for Kotsay in center in acceptable to me. An occasional experiment is one thing. If this becomes a regular occurrence it is quite another.

Alright I have to ask...Are you Ron Roenicke?

[Ennder]

I can maybe somewhat forgive him for playing Kotsay in CF at home since we have sort of a small OF, playing Kotsay in CF in a park with a huge OF in a situation where we aren't scoring very much so need the defense is just ridiculous.

[trwi7]

Roenicke didn't say he would stick with Corey Hart in the No. 2 hole for the rest of the season. He said Hart isn't an ideal No. 2 hitter because he's not a contact hitter who can move runners around. But Roenicke said there was one advantage to batting Hart second.

I really can't stand this guy.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I wouldn't read too much into it. I think he plans to bat Morgan there when he gets back. He's said before that he loves Morgan in the 2 spot. If that's the case, then I won't mind much. It would make the bottom of our order stronger to have Hart hitting 6th, and Morgan hitting 2nd.

[RobDeer 45]

Guys I was just trying to make a point that even when you do everything by the book it doesn't always work out. I like the lineup last night much more than anything else he's done. Just trying to make the point that you can't blame a manager for everything.

[Raw Biz]

Just trying to make the point that you can't blame a manager for everything.

Obviously, but the manager should be putting the team in the best position to succeed. And Roenicke's done a lot so far (Gomez in 2 hole, Kotsay in CF, Kotsay over Nyjer, overusing Loe, not hitting Lucroy higher, etc.) this year that haven't put the team in the best position to win (IMO).

[rluzinski]

Roenicke didn't say he would stick with Corey Hart in the No. 2 hole for the rest of the season. He said Hart isn't an ideal No. 2 hitter because he's not a contact hitter who can move runners around. But Roenicke said there was one advantage to batting Hart second.

I really can't stand this guy.

RR is completely right that the Brewer's early struggles on the road does not predict future struggles. Haudricourt suggesting that 25% of the season proves otherwise shows a terrible understanding of baseball in general. The Brewers are currently 8-16 on the road. What should they be? 11-13?

But yeh, his comments about the pros and cons of Hart batting 2nd are concerning to say the least. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[Thurston Fluff]

I've been as vocal as anyone about waiting to see. Gather information, let things play out. Heck LaRussa started Pujols at third and he is one of the most successful managers of our time so a start or two for Kotsay in center in acceptable to me. An occasional experiment is one thing. If this becomes a regular occurrence it is quite another.

Alright I have to ask...Are you Ron Roenicke?

What about that comment defended or thought it was a good idea to play him in center last night? I was agreeing with the general populous this is becoming more regular than I like. Geez.

[logan82]

I've been as vocal as anyone about waiting to see. Gather information, let things play out. Heck LaRussa started Pujols at third and he is one of the most successful managers of our time so a start or two for Kotsay in center in acceptable to me. An occasional experiment is one thing. If this becomes a regular occurrence it is quite another.

Alright I have to ask...Are you Ron Roenicke?

What about that comment defended or thought it was a good idea to play him in center last night? I was agreeing with the general populous this is becoming more regular than I like. Geez.

I didn't get that impression from the previous statement. It sounded more like you were defending Ron's decision to play Kotsay in CF. You drew parallels between a manager you think is good and Runnin' Ron.

[Thurston Fluff]

Guess I have to work on that. I was giving an example of why I was ok with the experiment. I did so by showing others who are unquestionably good managers who do similar things on occasion as to why I give the benefit of a doubt to Ron. I thought the part about it becoming regular was a giveaway that I am not in favor of doing it again so soon. Obviously not.

 

Then again I should have just shut up and let people think what they may about my statement. After Kotsay's night I would look a lot smarter today.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[Invader3K]

Kotsay has been a serviceable enough fourth OF this season, so far. I wish some fans didn't need to find one player to be a scapegoat all the time.

[logan82]

I did so by showing others who are unquestionably good managers who do similar things on occasion as to why I give the benefit of a doubt to Ron

 

Whether LaRussa is a good manager or not is opinion. The difference between a good manager and a bad one is managing a good team.

 

Then again I should have just shut up and let people think what they may about my statement. After Kotsay's night I would look a lot smarter today.[Laughing]

 

Yeah it definitely worked out last night. I still think it was a bad decision though because if RRR made that same decision it would backfire more often than it would work.

[Thurston Fluff]

Whether LaRussa is a good manager or not is opinion. The difference between a good manager and a bad one is managing a good team.

 

I hate the dude more than any other single person in baseball. Even I can't argue some of his success is due to his ability. Overall I agree managers are perhaps the least important determining factor in a team's success.

[monty57]

Many posters on here scream that we need more players on our team that have a decent OBP. Kotsay's OBP is .378 and these same posters scream whenever Kotsay is inserted into the lineup. I wouldn't bet that he'll keep a .378 OBP all year, but it's certainly not out of the question for him to be around .330 at season's end. For point of reference, that would put him around average for OF in baseball in 2010. That doesn't make him great, but it does make him about average at one very important aspect of the game (OBP). He had a bad year last year and only played in 235 games from 2007-2009. Other than playing terribly in Boston, he looked pretty good elsewhere during that '07-'09 period. How can anyone say that they can accurately predict his 2011 offensive potential given his last few seasons where he often only played 50-60 games? It is quite likely that he could put up a decent OBP this year, which is a good thing given the way this Brewers squad is made up.

 

As far as defense, he's obviously lost a few steps, but I think many here put way too much faith in "advanced defensive metrics" to try to state exactly how good or bad a player is. Please keep in mind that these are very subject to bias. There have been a number of studies showing that if a person goes into a situation believing something true, he or she will subconsciously err on the side of what they believe to be true. To the best of my knowledge, the "advanced defensive metrics" rely on a person watching the game who has to determine whether or not a player "should have" made a play. If the person watching the game believes that the player is a bad defender, he is going to be more likely to err on the side of stating that a certain play "should have" been made. If the person watching the game believes that the player is a good defender, he is going to be more likely to err on the side of stating that the same play "shouldn't have" been made. Additionally, the same subjective methodology means that they have to decide where the player started the play, which is not always going to be clear, but makes a big difference as to whether the play "should have" been made. To me, this makes these numbers nice, but not nearly as accurate as some make them out to be.

 

This is not saying that Kotsay is a good defender, but I think his deficiencies are probably being overstated. He'll probably play back a little, allowing for a few more singles in order to not give up the extra base hits, but he has played a lot of CF, so he should be able to get good reads off the bat and take good angles. He certainly is a downgrade from Gomez, but on offense he is a significant upgrade. In last night's game, Roenicke started Kotsay, who came through offensively in a big way, while not hurting us defensively. When we had a lead, Roenicke replaced Kotsay with Gomez defensively to help maintain the lead.

 

There, I've defended an unpopular decision to replace one bad player with a few good aspects for a different bad player with a few good aspects. Fire away.

[homer]

Whether LaRussa is a good manager or not is opinion. The difference between a good manager and a bad one is managing a good team.

 

I hate the dude more than any other single person in baseball. Even I can't argue some of his success is due to his ability. Overall I agree managers are perhaps the least important determining factor in a team's success.

My personal opinion is that a ton of Larussa's success is due to Dave Duncan.

[logan82]

Many posters on here scream that we need more players on our team that have a decent OBP. Kotsay's OBP is .378 and these same posters scream whenever Kotsay is inserted into the lineup. I wouldn't bet that he'll keep a .378 OBP all year, but it's certainly not out of the question for him to be around .330 at season's end.

That is as far as you really need to go. That is all most people are really concerned with. He will not keep up that .378 OBP. He only had a .320 OBP over 2008-2010. That was hitting a large majority of the time with the platoon advantage. His wOBA's since 2005 are .321/.315/.253/.316/.309/.297. That is Gomez/Betancourt territory.

 

He only had 173.2 innings in the field over 2009-2010. He has 165 this year already. He hasn't been a positive defender since 2004.

 

I am fine with unpopular positions(I did argue Gamel over McGehee at 3B before the year). He had a good game last night and I will cheer for him as a Brewer but there is no way to he should be on the roster let alone actually playing in the field.

 

If the person watching the game believes that the player is a bad

defender, he is going to be more likely to err on the side of stating

that a certain play "should have" been made. If the person watching the

game believes that the player is a good defender, he is going to be more

likely to err on the side of stating that the same play "shouldn't

have" been made.

That isn't my understanding of the methodology. They don't make a decision of should or shouldn't have made a play. They chart where a ball was hit to, how hard it was hit and whether the player made the play or not. That information gets plugged into buckets and the defense stats get calculated from there. I think that is how it works.

[monty57]

That is as far as you really need to go.

 

If you don't care to look at potential causes or circumstances and simply want to be black & white then yes.

 

He had a horrific year in Oakland (.575 OPS) in 2007 in 56 games. Why? That year makes no sense. Potentially, he was injured, or maybe he just hit a bad streak... it's only 56 games afterall.

 

In 88 games in Atlanta in 2008, he posted a .758 OPS, and then moved to Boston, where he was terrible for the remainder of the season and the beginning of 2009. Why was he bad in Boston? Was there a circumstance or was it simply a bad streak. Regardless, it caused his 2009 season to only account for 67 games.

 

He then went to the White Sox where he had a good end to the season, but a bad 2010.

 

All in all, this accounted for 340 games, or roughly two full seasons. Are you so certain in your analysis that you feel there is absolutely no room for error over a four year period in which someone only played 340 games? Have you accounted for probable extenuating circumstances which caused him to only play in 340 games over four seasons?

 

That is all most people are really concerned with.

 

Maybe people should be concerned with more. Was he injured at all during this period? Was there something going on in Boston which caused his poor play? Was there anything else which could have caused for a few periods of horrendous play during a four-year period in which he didn't have all that many games played?

 

He only had a .320 OBP over 2008-2010.

 

That's only slightly below average for a MLB OF. Plus, with such a limited number of PAs, the standard deviation would be quite high. Finally, his OBP was .340 w/ Atl, .286 & .291 w/ BOS, .349 & .306 w/ Chicago. Something screwy went on in Boston, bringing his numbers down. Then, he had a down year last year. Maybe this was predictable due to aging, maybe it was simply a down year, which everyone can have.

 

That was hitting a large majority of the time with the platoon advantage.

 

Which he will also have with the Brewers. So far this season he's had 73 ABs vs RHP & 4 against LHP.

 

He only had 173.2 innings in the field over 2009-2010.

 

So because Ozzie decided to DH him in favor of Juan Pierre and Carlos Quinton (two superior defenders), that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can no longer play the field? Remember, the Red Sox & White Sox are in the AL, where they have a DH. The Brewers are in the NL where there is no DH. Kotsay has helped the Brewers offensively this season, and Roenicke has to play him in the field if he wants his bat in the lineup.

 

I don't disagree that Kotsay is below average as an all-around MLB OF. That doesn't mean that he has no value, or that he shouldn't be on the team. He has actually been valuable to the 2011 Brewers. You can simply chalk that up to limited sample size, which may be true. However, it is also possible that you are basing you preconceived notions of Kotsay on limited sample sizes, incomplete knowledge of situations and the fact that the White Sox manager used Kotsay as a DH when he had better options for corner OF. Melvin obviously saw something in Kotsay, and to this point, he seems to be winning the debate.