Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)

[endaround]

Edmonds had little choice. Milwaukee gave him a job, no one else would. Veteran players get dumped all the time. Right now the Yankees are trying to dump Posada, a guy who has actually been good as of last year.

[Thurston Fluff]

If you really think there is some magical stat, or magical idea that makes hitting Gomez second, playing Kotsay over Morgan when both were healthy, throwing Kameron Loe 2 of every 3 games, and playing Kotsay over Boggs in CF the wiser choice.... I'm not sure what to tell you.

 

nOt a single magical anyhting. A combination of things. Rluz would tell you the batting order is pretty inconsequential so I don't know why it's even being brought up as some sort of magical reason to show manager is incompetent. Especially when the choice isn't where to bat one bad batter out of 9. The choice of where to bat one of three black holes on offense is to put them all together and create on giant black hole or to spread them out. If you can't see why one choice has as many merits as the other I don't know what to tell you.

 

You're exaggerating Loe's use as well. Here is a list of teams along with the number of pitchers who have more innings pitched than Loe.

 

Cincinnati 2

Atlanta 3

Houston 1

KC 1

San Diego 4

Florida 2

Washington 2

Arizona 1

Boston 1

Colorado 1

New York Yankees 2

New york Mets 2

Pittsburgh 2

LA Dodgers 1

La angels 1

Minnesota 1

Oakland 1

Tampa Bay 1

St Louis 1

 

That isn't even a complete list. I quit after one page on Yahoo stats. There could be more but I think its enough top make my point.

Are all those managers idiots as well? Even Tony LaRussa, Joe Maddon, Joe Giradi, Ron Gardenhire, Mike Scioscia and Terry Francona? Or is it possible that maybe, just maybe, it just isn't a valid evaluation point on that point in the season?

[homer]

Rluz would tell you the batting order is pretty inconsequential so I don't know why it's even being brought up as some sort of magical reason to show manager is incompetent.

 

Within the context of one game it is, but over the course of a season you are giving Gomez way too many at bats for what he gives you. I'd rather have a better hitter bat 2nd and give that guy more at bats than Gomez.

[Thurston Fluff]

If Gomez does hit second all season then that could be used as a reason to bash Ron.

[Raw Biz]

You're exaggerating Loe's use as well. Here is a list of teams along with the number of pitchers who have more innings pitched than Loe.

 

Cincinnati 2

Atlanta 3

Houston 1

KC 1

San Diego 4

Florida 2

Washington 2

Arizona 1

Boston 1

Colorado 1

New York Yankees 2

New york Mets 2

Pittsburgh 2

LA Dodgers 1

La angels 1

Minnesota 1

Oakland 1

Tampa Bay 1

St Louis 1

 

That isn't even a complete list. I quit after one page on Yahoo stats. There could be more but I think its enough top make my point.

Are all those managers idiots as well? Even Tony LaRussa, Joe Maddon, Joe Giradi, Ron Gardenhire, Mike Scioscia and Terry Francona? Or is it possible that maybe, just maybe, it just isn't a valid evaluation point on that point in the season?

The issue isn't that Roenicke is pitching some random pitcher so many innings. The issue is that it's Loe and he generally hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row (I don't have any specific stats, just from what I remember). Some pitchers are able to throw a lot of innings and still be effective but that doesn't seem to be the case with Loe.

[bjkrautk]

The issue isn't that Roenicke is pitching some random pitcher so many innings. The issue is that it's Loe and he generally hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row (I don't have any specific stats, just from what I remember). Some pitchers are able to throw a lot of innings and still be effective but that doesn't seem to be the case with Loe.

That's an interesting one, because it's something fairly easy to find #s for:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/6136/type/pitching3/kameron-loe

 

The 3-year splits only effectively cover 2 years (since Loe didn't pitch in the majors in 2009), but this is the only data available after Texas used him as a starter for a few years. If anyone can dig up the relief splits from 2005, feel free to post them.

 

2008 + 2010

0 days rest (59 PA against) - .281 Avg. / .300 OBP / .404 Slg. // .704 OPS

1 day rest (115 PA) - .241 / .287 / .398 // .685

2 days rest (45 PA) - .293 / .356 / .439 // .795

3-5 days rest (101 PA) - .275 / .340 / .319 // .658

6+ days rest (35 PA) - .212 / .257 / .455 // .712

 

Lest I get raked over hot coals, I will point out that none of these samples is large enough to make statistical predictions going forward. Likewise, the 2011 data is severely skewed (only 4 PAs on 1 day of rest) to be useful for our purposes. At least in the past, Loe has been slightly more effective with one day in between appearances, but the difference between 0-1 day between appearances is fairly minor.

 

If anything, the most notable difference between the previous splits and the current year is just how different his usage is compared with the prior seasons; 69 of his 81 PAs against have come with either 0 or 2 days of rest, with almost none coming in the situations where he has been most effective in the past.

[Thurston Fluff]

The issue isn't that Roenicke is pitching some random pitcher so many innings. The issue is that it's Loe and he generally hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row (I don't have any specific stats, just from what I remember). Some pitchers are able to throw a lot of innings and still be effective but that doesn't seem to be the case with Loe.

 

I think you need some evidence other than what I remember to back this up.

[Oxy]

The issue isn't that Roenicke is pitching some random pitcher so many innings. The issue is that it's Loe and he generally hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row (I don't have any specific stats, just from what I remember). Some pitchers are able to throw a lot of innings and still be effective but that doesn't seem to be the case with Loe.

 

I think you need some evidence other than what I remember to back this up.

I don't know, personally I think it would be pretty impressive if rawbecht can use what Backupcatchers remembers as evidence for anything.

[monty57]

To me, Roenicke's biggest fault this season was not playing Morgan enough when he was healthy. He probably should have been playing almost every day vs RHP. Doing this, he could have hit Morgan or Kotsay (who does get on base fairly well) in the #2 spot over Gomez, and only bat Gomez #2 vs LHP.

 

That's really my only gripe. Other than that, I may not have done things the same way as Roenicke, but I don't have a lot of issues:

 

-He has been hamstrung with injuries, which will hopefully subside one of these days.

 

-I personally have no idea how in-shape Hart is... I'd like to think that he could handle playing more, but maybe he can't. He certainly has been less-than-stellar in the limited time he's been healthy, so it's hard to say that playing Kotsay over Hart has hurt the team to date. It shouldn't continue, and I don't think Roenicke has any intentions of keeping Hart on the bench long-term.

 

-Bullpen management is always going to be scrutinized. It seems that Loe is getting overused, and Green got used in a lot of situations he shouldn't have, but there have been instances such as Saito and Braddock, where there have been pitchers in the 'pen unable to work. Maybe there are other things we don't know that have caused some of Roenicke's moves.

 

-I certainly would have had Boggs on the bench all season, but I can't fault Roenicke for this... that has to fall on Melvin, who makes the final roster decisions. If you are not given a RH option, and Kotsay and Morgan both stick vs LH pitchers, then I guess I can't fault Roenicke for putting Almonte in RF vs LHP.

 

Going forward, he's already stated that he wants to bat Hart #2, so hopefully that will happen soon, erasing two early season issues (Kotsay in RF & Gomez #2). Lucroy is healthy, erasing one of the early-season black holes (Nieves/Kottaras). Greinke is healthy, erasing the rotation shuffling he's had to do all season, and hopefully leading to longer SP outings / less need for the bullpen. Hawkins is healthy, erasing Green from the roster. Almonte probably won't be back on the MLB roster this season.

 

In other words, most of the things people have complained about could soon go away, and everyone can once again focus all of their hatred on the one remaining source of angst... Betancourt.

[Raw Biz]

The issue isn't that Roenicke is pitching some random pitcher so many innings. The issue is that it's Loe and he generally hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row (I don't have any specific stats, just from what I remember). Some pitchers are able to throw a lot of innings and still be effective but that doesn't seem to be the case with Loe.

 

I think you need some evidence other than what I remember to back this up.

Ok, I should have said there is evidence out there but I just don't feel like looking it up. I don't know how someone couldn't tell that Loe was being overused. Just about everyone on this board (except the Roenicke apologists) have mentioned that point this year. Roenicke even came out and said Loe was unavailable after pitching 2 days in a row, then used him anyway and saw him get lit up. Doesn't that kind of point to overuse?

[Thurston Fluff]

Ok, I should have said there is evidence out there but I just don't feel like looking it up. I don't know how someone couldn't tell that Loe was being overused.

 

I think anyone too lazy to look it up to show evidence was too lazy to look it up in the first place. That is if it exists. BJ just posted his stats and there isn't enough to show anything let alone his effectiveness vs the other specific pitchers on the list. But I'm perfectly willing to admit I'm wrong. All you have to do is post the evidence. Then we can forward it to the Brewers and stop the insanity.

 

Just about everyone on this board (except the Roenicke apologists) have mentioned that point this year.

 

Are you really going to start this? I have stated several times I haven't made up my mind. I also see this sort of thing happen every year on pretty much every manager since the beginning of time. There was a cave man team whose fans that said it about one of their rock throwers. Some pitcher gets used a lot early and everyone is in a tither. "The manager is and idiot the manager is an idiot." - "He cost us at least 20 games so far." yada yada wake me when something new comes up with the unapologists.

[TooLiveBrew]

In other words, most of the things people have complained about could soon go away, and everyone can once again focus all of their hatred on the one remaining source of angst... Betancourt.

 

Best line in this thread.

[Ennder]

In other words, most of the things people have complained about could soon go away, and everyone can once again focus all of their hatred on the one remaining source of angst... Betancourt.

 

Best line in this thread.

Yep, we should all channel our angst into the player who is clearly below replacement level.

[strawbossisevil]

Trying to figure out what bagging on Yuni has to do with RR.

[1992casey]

Ok, I should have said there is evidence out there but I just don't feel like looking it up.

 

Actually, the first way was better. [The issue isn't that Roenicke is pitching some random pitcher so many innings. The issue is that it's Loe and he generally hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row (I don't have any specific stats, just from what I remember).]

 

Better yet would have been to simply admit that you don't have stats on hand and present the concept as "my impression is" or "it appears to me." There's no problem with floating an idea without statistical backup as long as one isn't too insistent, e.g. "From what I remember, Loe hasn't been as effective when used multiple days in a row." Someone will likely come along and help out like bjkrautk did. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Also, given that bjkrautk had already helped out, I don't think I would have bothered calling out rawbecht for less than thorough research.

[danzig6767]

Trying to figure out what bagging on Yuni has to do with RR.

No question that it was Melvin's dumb decision to acquire Betancourt, not Roenicke. That said, not only does Gomez need to be moved down the order, if Roenicke is going to continue refusing common sense and keeping Gomez in the two hole, i'd rather see Lucroy batting 7th instead of 8th. It's a minor issue, but overall the guy batting 7th will likely come up a little more in RBI situations than the guy batting 8th. With situations of guys on base with two outs after McGehee/Hart came up, i'd much rather see Lucroy up than Yuni.

 

Your overall point though is true, the heavy angst over Betancourt needs to be levied on Doug, not the manager.

[1992casey]

I don't think the Betancourt remark was meant to be taken too seriously. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

I certainly didn't. It made me chuckle.

[BuckyBrewer61]

It's a minor issue, but overall the guy batting 7th will likely come up a little more in RBI situations than the guy batting 8th. With situations of guys on base with two outs after McGehee/Hart came up, i'd much rather see Lucroy up than Yuni.

This is particularly true when the guy batting 7th is getting on base at a .248 clip. I feel like this is also overlooked a bit in this all. Not only will moving Lucroy up to bat least 7 replace our worst hitter with one of our best hitters in an important run-producing spot in the order (behind good hitters in Hart/McGehee), it also removes our worst hitter from batting directly in front of one of our best hitters. With Betancourt creating outs at this frenzied pace, Lucroy is going to have to bat more often with 2 outs, leading off an inning, etc.

It's the same argument as Gomez in the 2-hole. Why would we put our worst hitter right in front of one of our most productive hitters? I have to believe having Fielder/McGehee/Hart in front of Lucroy has to create more runs than McGehee/Hart/Betancourt.

[cwolf2012]

"Cincinnati 2

Atlanta 3

Houston 1

KC 1

San Diego 4

Florida 2

Washington 2

Arizona 1

Boston 1

Colorado 1

New York Yankees 2

New york Mets 2

Pittsburgh 2

LA Dodgers 1

La angels 1

Minnesota 1

Oakland 1

Tampa Bay 1

St Louis 1"

 

In response to this, all I can say is that the number of innings is not the issue. It's the number of appearances. Most of those guys who have pitched more innings have been pitching in long relief. Pitching 4 innings and getting 3 days rest afterwards is way less stressful than pitching 1 inning in 4 straight games, and I have to believe you realize that.

 

Even with his recent days off, Loe is still tied for 3rd in the MLB with 23 appearances. Only Venters and O'Flaherty have appeared more often. That's the problem.

[RobDeer 45]

Shouldn't we be yelling about how mad we are that RRR made the lineup the way most people wanted it and we scored 0 runs....... Just goes to show that when you do something that makes sense, it doesn't always work out in your favor. So when you get mad at Ron for making a bad choice, and saying I would have done this......it also might not have worked out. Always easier to make judgement after the fact, but just because you said you would have done something differently doesn't mean your decision would have worked any better.

 

This is not meant to fire anyone up, just to make sure people take a deep breath before getting really angry with Ron. He's screwed up and done some puzzling things but there is a reason he's the manager and none of us are.

[greeg35]

Just goes to show that when you do something that makes sense, it doesn't always work out in your favor

 

 

all it shows is that one game doesn't mean jack squat as far as judging "what works". There are no guarantees either way, so you go with what is most likely to work. And by "you" I mean anyone except RRR.

[Funketown]

Always easier to make judgement after the fact, but just because you said you would have done something differently doesn't mean your decision would have worked any better.

Just because the lineup scored no runs does not make it a bad lineup. Lineups should maximize expected runs scored; Roenicke's lineup yesterday did a pretty good job of that. Over a whole season, the lineup from yesterday will be better than his typical lineups.

 

Even after the fact, I still think that lineup may have been the best in the young season.

[logan82]

Always easier to make judgement after the fact, but just because you said you would have done something differently doesn't mean your decision would have worked any better.

 

Most of these criticisms are made as things happen or before. Not after. Go look in the lineup thread to get a good feel for how many people think a lineup should be set up. Much of the lineup stuff people made up their minds on before the season started.

[Thurston Fluff]

In response to this, all I can say is that the number of innings is not the issue. It's the number of appearances. Most of those guys who have pitched more innings have been pitching in long relief. Pitching 4 innings and getting 3 days rest afterwards is way less stressful than pitching 1 inning in 4 straight games, and I have to believe you realize that.

 

There are 5 others who have as many or more appearances. Of those he has the lowest number of innings by 1.1 innings. If you count those who have one less appearance there are 10 players with more innings and close enough in appearances to call it a wash. I still don't know how that is anything so out of the ordinary at this point of the season. Especially when you take into consideration the injury factor in the pen early on.