Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)

[bucksman4]

The best thing about RR's hiring is it came with a 2-year contract. Which obviously means after year 1, you either extend him or you make him a lame duck manager. With the roster he was given and the improved pitching, he's definitely on the hot seat from Day 1 with high expectations. It's playoffs or bust this year for him. If you're Attanasio dishing out this type of payroll money, your patience level is very low.

[rluzinski]

This is he hits well against right handed pitchers with breaking stuff. I would expect that to be a much larger sample size to work from. What does your statistical analysis tell you Kotsay does against that type of pitcher? Do you even take that sort of information into account? What would be stupider? A person who takes in depth analysis into account or someone who uses general stats in a one size fits all approach?

What exactly is a SP with "good breaking stuff"? Does Tim Stauffer really qualify as one? Has Kotsay really hit well against righties with good breaking stuff in the last 3+ years? Was the sample statistically significant? Because of sample size issues, it really has no chance to be, so did the Brewers do a comprehensive league wide study based on multiple years of data? If they did and know the magnitude of the average platoon split, what was their projection for Kotsay hitting against Tim Stauffer? Does it really make up for his projected performance in CF?

Do we really think RR looks at that that kind of data? Do you think the Brewers make it available to him? My guess is that RR's comment was either based on Kotsay saying he likes to hit breaking pitches or a casual observation made by RR while watching Kotsay this year. I don't believe the Brewers are a particular sabermetric club to begin with.

Kotsay has a current ZiPS projection of .251/.315/.352. He obviously would be expected to perform better against a righty but we'd have to assume some massive advantage above and beyond that to make him a good play considering his projected defense in CF (RR comments about Kotsay being a good fit in CF at Miller Park is.... unpersuasive). Like endaround said, I believe that RR put some thought into this.. I am just highly skeptical of the quality of it. Of course, I am just speculating though.

Using pitch f/x data, we know that different kinds of pitches have different platoon splits:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/platoon-splits-2.0/

It would be interesting to see if certain hitters do especially good or bad against certain classes of pitchers with regard to the kinds of pitches they throw (independent of their handedness). Someone probably already has.

[joepepsi]

I'd guess the comment about Kotsay and breaking pitches is based on his scouting report.

[rluzinski]

I'd guess the comment about Kotsay and breaking pitches is based on his scouting report.

I guess you are probably right. Of course, if a bad hitter is "good at hitting breaking pitches", what does that really tell us? Against a breaking ball pitcher, he goes from bad to less bad, mediocre, average, good, great?

I just find that kind of baseball decision making underwhelming at best.

 

[endaround]

Again this is all in search of reasons to play Kotsay. What should be happening is searching for ways to avoid playing Kotsay. Playing one game in CF while foolish won't kill the team, Kotsay playing all the time will. In the 11 games since May 1st Kotsay has started 5 of them.

[Raw Biz]

In the 11 games since May 1st Kotsay has started 5 of them.

This is part of my disgust towards Roenicke. He's benching more talented players (Hart, Gomez at least defensively) to find starts for Kotsay. Kotsay is fine for a spot start (maybe once a week) but starting him half the games this month is a joke. I just don't see the fascination with Kotsay, he's terrible at everything except drawing a few walks.

[mletto157]

If only Nyjer wasn't hurt so much this year! I keep having dreams of 1. Nyjer, 2. Rickie, 3. Braun, 4. Fielder, 5. Hart/McGehee, 6. Hart/McGehee... then scraps... although with Lucroy being relatively consistant since coming back maybe he shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as Betancourt anymore...

 

This also eliminates 2 problems. 1. Having Gomez's bat and questionable baserunning instincts in the lineup. 2. Having Kotsay playing at all.

 

If you are going to have Gomez play, bat him at the end. If you are going to play Kotsay - play him at a very easy position, I suppose RF is all you can really use him at right now, and also bat him at the bottom of the order.

 

Why is this difficult?

[bjkrautk]

Again this is all in search of reasons to play Kotsay. What should be happening is searching for ways to avoid playing Kotsay. Playing one game in CF while foolish won't kill the team, Kotsay playing all the time will. In the 11 games since May 1st Kotsay has started 5 of them.

Braun started in all 11 games during that same stretch.

Gomez started in 8 of the 11 (and took half the ABs in a 9th game, which was part of the doubleheader).

Morgan started in 2 of the 3 games he was available for (1 in CF, one in RF) between trips to the DL.

 

Right now, the options for RF include:

-Kotsay (.350 OBP / .265 Slg. in 2011; .335 / .410 career)

-Hart (.238 / .268; .328 / .479)

-Boggs (.154 / .154; .312 / .375)

 

Hart has started 7 of the 11 games we're talking about. Small samples abound in the stats (not unlike our 11 game interval), but Hart hasn't exactly lit things up to demand an everyday spot in the lineup. Granted, Corey's getting a slow start due to all the time he missed in spring training, but until Corey gets his power stroke back and starts heating up....I think there's a valid argument that Kotsay should be starting more than he is right now in RF. (Even assuming Kotsay's OBP regresses to his career numbers, where he was before his 3 BB game last night....his OBP is at least in the ballpark in relation to Hart. Power is Corey's major advantage...and that's hasn't come around yet: 2 XBH in 42 PA!)

 

 

I'd like for Kotsay not to have the best numbers of the RF candidates, too, but that's not really up to RR. While I don't like the thought of Kotsay starting in CF, the #2 spot in the lineup is not as bad as it could be, given his 'old man' OBP; he's not doing a ton at the plate, but he's not giving away outs at a higher rate than any of the other alternatives between Weeks and Braun.

 

Personally, I'd rather call up Katin, Gindl, or Gamel than continue giving Kotsay these ABs while waiting for Hart to come around. That said, none of those options are on the 25 man roster, so RR can't do much beyond begging DM to give him a better option.

[rluzinski]

Hart has started 7 of the 11 games we're talking about. Small samples abound in the stats (not unlike our 11 game interval), but Hart hasn't exactly lit things up to demand an everyday spot in the lineup.

 

Nine years ago, people around would use small samples without batting an eye. Now they say, "I know it's a small sample" and then use them anyway.

 

It's just terrible to use Kotsay's (68 AB) and Hart's (41!!!! AB) slash lines this year to suggest playing Kotsay more might be justifiable. Highschool math can prove the folly of doing so. By all means, include their performance this year when constructing a projection for them but 2011 will RIGHTFULLY be weighted very little.

[The Truth]

It's just terrible to use Kotsay's (68 AB) and Hart's (41!!!! AB) slash lines this year to suggest playing Kotsay more might be justifiable. Highschool math can prove the folly of doing so. By all means, include their performance this year when constructing a projection for them but 2011 will RIGHTFULLY be weighted very little.

Exactly. One of Roenicke's biggest weaknesses so far seems to be putting so much weight on small samples. Keeping Reed on the team over Boggs based on spring training being just one example

 

[rluzinski]

Recently, RR was stressing how he saw SOMETHING in Gomez this spring and it was for almost a whole MONTH (yes, he stressed the month part as if it were a long time). I don't mean to suggest that a manager shouldn't make observations on a batter's approach and/or how well he's making contact or whatever. I was just amazed that RR seemed CONVINCED that Gomez magically became a new batter because he had decent numbers in spring training. And now here we are in mid May and he's still trying to convince himself he was right.

[bjkrautk]

Nine years ago, people around would use small samples without batting an eye. Now they say, "I know it's a small sample" and then use them anyway.

 

It's just terrible to use Kotsay's (68 AB) and Hart's (41!!!! AB) slash lines this year to suggest playing Kotsay more might be justifiable. Highschool math can prove the folly of doing so. By all means, include their performance this year when constructing a projection for them but 2011 will RIGHTFULLY be weighted very little.

...which would also be why I listed their career #s right alongside. If you want 3-year averages, Kotsay is .320 / .391 to Hart's .324 / .471.

 

I'm not arguing that - under normal conditions - Kotsay should be starting more than once a week (if that often). Hart has been back with the team for just over 2 weeks, after missing nearly all of spring training. His strikeout rate is up, walk rate is down (and neither of those have been real strengths over his career), and his contact numbers are way off his norms.

 

Is it so wrong to conclude that his timing may not be in regular season form?

Or to suggest that it may be unrealistic to expect Hart to be the .800 OPS player we expect him to be while he works himself into form?

 

 

Acknowledging that RRs options in RF are all not particularly good right now does not mean they won't be better in the future. I'd still expect Hart to end the year in the .750 - .810 OPS range. If the team were to keep playing him every day before he gets re-acclimated to major league pitching, he's going to end up on the low end of that range.

 

Until he shows that he's up-to-speed, I don't see the harm in someone else starting 2-3 times a week.

[logan82]

Is it so wrong to conclude that his timing may not be in regular season form?

 

Ifyou are just looking at the numbers, yes. Hart has looked pretty good at the plate in games and with only 41 PA that is more important than anything the numbers will show at this point. Add in that Kotsay has no range and Hart is projected to be much better and Hart is clearly a better choice than Kotsay. Even against RHP 2008-2010 Hart and Kotsay are pretty much equal. Against LHP, forget it, Kotsay should only face LHP in an extreme emergency. Kotsay should be off the team, but while he is here he should only be pinch hitting against RHP. Nothing more.

[Thurston Fluff]

Let's not act like Kotsay went 5-5 with the cycle yesterday. He was 0-2 with 3 walks.

 

So the only way Ron could have been right is if Kotsay had a career day? Since when has getting on base over 50% of the time not a good day?

 

I was just amazed that RR seemed CONVINCED that Gomez magically became a new batter because he had decent numbers in spring training. And now here we are in mid May and he's still trying to convince himself he was right.

 

Personally I thought the whole "he's changed his approach," thing was the usual spring fluff stuff. I want my manger to be upbeat and positive about players then. Judging from some comments he made I think Ron was ready to play Morgan in center quite a bit when he got back. That doesn't' sound to me like he was still convinced. Now that Morgan isn't available he's back to saying that. My guess would be he's doing so because that is the best way to handle the situation. I certainly don't want him to bash the dude although he did mention Gomez needs to get back to that approach. I want him to keep working with Gomez to get better. There is no benefit to just deciding he sucks and give up and wait until someone better comes along. Keep working with him to get the most out of him until that time.

 

What exactly is a SP with "good breaking stuff"?

 

I wouldn't know but nobody said good or bad. He just said he hits righties with breaking stuff. Then he went out and got on base 3 times. One party said he sucks based on general stats and one party said he hits a certain type of pitcher well based on more specific stats. The party who never looked at the break down of pitcher type is the one who thinks the party who did is an idiot based on less comprehensive stats. Doesn't that sound odd to you? Perhaps you believe the stats you use tell you everything you need to know. That's fine overall. They do quite well in the broader perspective. I just don't happen to agree with being married to them in light of contrary evidence that appears to be more comprehensive and turned out to work like predicted.

 

Has Kotsay really hit well against righties with good breaking stuff in the last 3+ years? Was the sample statistically significant? Because of sample size issues, it really has no chance to be, so did the Brewers do a comprehensive league wide study based on multiple years of data? If they did and know the magnitude of the average platoon split, what was their projection for Kotsay hitting against Tim Stauffer? Does it really make up for his projected performance in CF?

 

These are all great questions. Ones that should be answered before making assessments of how bad of decisions one thinks someone is making. For myself I would think they do have all of the above. I also seriously doubt they will share much of that information with us. It is not wise to give out information that will lead to a competitive disadvantage just to keep fans from thinking you're an idiot. Overall I think baseball teams use far more complete stats than we do. Doug Melvin commissioned a study to evaluate what type of pitcher and mechanics leads to injuries. Ron uses defensive shifts based on spray charts of every player. Does that sound like an organization that doesn't take statistical analysis into account? Perhaps even more comprehensive ones than we do? I realize fans could break down each and every player, evaluate how well they do in any given situation, and come up with as comprehensive an evaluation as they have in the majors. I just don't think anyone has. I do not know of any information, for example, of what type of pitcher Kotsay does the best against. When I hear a manager say he does well against a certain type of pitcher I assume he is saying such based on evidence. Perhaps that assumption is wrong but when I see it work I tend to think maybe there is something to it.

 

To be clear I have not made up my mind on him yet. I just think there is way too much decided already about him. If someone wants to hate on him they will find any and every reason to justify that. Which is fine until the reasoning for said move is provided, it makes some amount of sense and actually worked and they still get hammered. After that point it seems a little like a person is only interested in verifying a predisposed idea of him vs evaluation of him. Then I'll say something simply to inject some objectivity into it if nothing else.

[Ennder]

I actually like a comment that he hits SP with breaking stuff well. So much better than a manager playing a guy because he is 3 for 6 against a pitcher. You can group pitchers into types and if you see how your hitters do vs that type and use that info to help decisions it is a good thing. I don't know that this is what Roenicke did though, he might just be saying random stuff to justify his decision.

[monty57]

Russ, in another thread (I think somewhere in the middle of the very long Betancourt thread), you listed the average OBP for each spot in the order. If I recall correctly, most of these averages were in the .320-.340 range. There is no reason to believe that Kotsay cannot get on base in that range for the season. In fact, he's done it in 2 of the last 3 and 9 of the last 11 seasons, and yes, he is doing it again this year in a limited number of PAs. Kotsay has lost a few steps, and doesn't have much power left in his bat, but getting on base isn't his big fault. Time and again on this site, I read how OBP is far and away the most important thing in baseball, and how players who don't take walks should be banished from baseball. However, seemingly just because people want to dump on Kotsay for everything, people are now ripping him for everything, including for taking walks instead of going 5 for 5.

 

Meanwhile, whipping boys of the past, Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart are now seemingly deemed irreplaceable. Gomez is still a good defense, bad offense player, and Hart is still someone who has had a couple of really good years and a couple of really bad years who is now also coming off an injury that kept him out for two months and caused him to be in a position that he has not had the PAs most players need to get their timing down. I fully expect that Hart will start almost every day in RF going forward, even if he is "bad Hart" this season, and I would certainly rather have someone better than Kotsay getting the starts, but to this point he's done alright for a fill-in, and the team is certainly not going to suffer immeasurable harm because one of its worst players (Gomez) sits on the bench for one day.

 

I guess the frustrating thing is that people are stating that "predictive statistics" (which is certainly not an exact science) somehow proved without a shadow of a doubt that Betancourt and Kotsay could do nothing well. People now use this preconceived notion to bash Kotsay and Betancourt for everything, even if they do well. They are certainly not good players, but it gets frustrating seeing how everybody dumps on them for everything. Why not rip Fielder, whose defense this season has probably cost us more games than Kotsay and Betancourt combined? Why not rip Hart for taking two months to come back from a minor injury and then stink up the joint in both the minors and majors since he came back? Why not rip McGehee for his slow start? Why not rip Braun for his terrible May? Why not rip Yo for being bad in all but a few starts this season? Why not rip a lot of things that have combined for far more of our 2011 record than Kotsay & Betancourt?

[rluzinski]

"Judging from some comments he made I think Ron was ready to play Morgan in center quite a bit when he got back."

 

He's still batting his worse hitter (Gomez) 2nd, so he still must be overestimating his hitting abilities.

 

I wouldn't know but nobody said good or bad. He just said he hits righties with breaking stuff. Then he went out and got on base 3 times.

 

Every starting pitcher has a breaking pitch in his repitoire so again I ask, what does that mean? I presume that it meant that he had an above average breaking pitch of some kind. And you HAVE to know that the results of one game should not be used to judge the quality of managerial moves. IF I think RR made a great move before seeing the outcome but it doesn't work out, I'm not going to change my mind.

 

One party said he sucks based on general stats and one party said he hits a certain type of pitcher well based on more specific stats. The party who never looked at the break down of pitcher type is the one who thinks the party who did is an idiot based on less comprehensive stats. Doesn't that sound odd to you?

 

I think you are making a large assumption there. If RR actually HAS access to quality statistical studies that show him that Kotsay should be expected to hit well against certain pitchers, great. That makes Kotsay's aggregate stats worthless in this kind of discussion. If RR has "contrary evidence that appears to be more comprehensive" (your words) and then I'll happily admit I am wrong. I would be happy because I am a Brewer fan and would LOVE to know that RR just isn't looking at generic scouting reports and deciding Kotsay is worth starting in CF and batting 2nd. But as I've already stated, I am highly skeptical that he does. And analysis of defensive spray charts (not exactly cutting edge ) and knowledge that they've attempted to study pitcher injuries doesn't change my mind. Melvin and the Brewers as a whole do not appear to be very sabermetrically inclined from my admittedly 1,000 mile away view.

[Oxy]

As always in these silly debates, it's about matchups vs. sabermatricians. Roenicke thinks that the difference between Kotsay and Gomez' hitting prowess VS TIM STAUFFER (not vs some average MLB pitcher..not even vs. the average right handed pitcher, but likely based on hours of observing both players hit against guys of his ilk--junkballing command-centric right handers) brings a greater advantage to the team to win the current game than the difference between Gomez and Kotsay's defense. In this case, I don't think there is much of a difference between the two options.

 

Another thing to keep in mind is the human element behind all of this. We have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. Perhaps RR has been harping on Gomez about some aspect of his game whether it is preperation, warm-ups, batting cage work, coming late to a meeting, etc. etc. etc. and has been warning him that he will see the bench if he isn't up to snuff in one of these areas. He's a young guy who is obviously still maturing, so this seems like it could be the case.

 

It's one game. His other starts recently were for Hart who looked terrible coming of an entire off-season layoff, so giving him a couple days rest seems to make sense too.

[rluzinski]

"but likely based on hours of observing both players hit against guys of his ilk"

 

And I don't believe that it's possible to (in your head) accurately categorize different pitcher types, objectively keep track of how each batter performed against each type and make accurate projections based on those observations. Even if the Brewers came up with an objective way to categorize pitchers and objectively assess how well the batter performed on each pitch for a month, they still almost certainly wouldn't have enough data to keep the uncertainties low enough to come up with any useful conclusions. A year of data? Probably not either.

 

Again, I ask anyone interested in this stuff to read the "Mono A Mono" chapter of "The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball". If anything, it will at least make clear how much data is needed to come up with these kinds of individualized splits. On a per AB level, a whole career's worth of data might not be enough. Just trying to determine if a particular player has a non-average platoon split takes 1,000+ AB of data. Perhaps using pitch f/x data might allow you to assess batter performance on a per pitch basis and cut the nerded sample down? I don't know. I can understand relying on scouting reports in close calls but I don't think this is a close call, personally.

 

To make it clear, I am not arguing that Kotsay hasn't necessary done better against pitchers "with breaking stuff" (I have no idea), I can't disprove that Kotsay has a real advantage over those kind of pitchers (I don't know). I am simply arguing that the Brewers probably have not even attempted to quantitatively determine whether Kotsay possesses an above average skill to hit breaking pitches. I suspect it isn't even possible with any reasonable certainty. It's like trying to determine if a coin is unevenly weighted in 100 flips.

 

Is it fair to call someone an idiot based off of speculation? That's a fair question. I never called him an idiot but my estimate, based on casual observation of a small dataset, he isn't a very good manager. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Oxy]

And I don't believe that it's possible to (in your head) accurately categorize different pitcher types, objectively keep track of how each batter performed against each type and make accurate projections based on those observations. Even if the Brewers came up with an objective way to categorize pitchers and objectively assess how well the batter performed on each pitch for a month, they still almost certainly wouldn't have enough data to keep the uncertainties low enough to come up with any useful conclusions. A year of data? Probably not either.

 

Again, I ask anyone interested in this stuff to read the "Mono A Mono" chapter of "The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball". If anything, it will at least make clear how much data is needed to come up with these kinds of individualized splits. On a per AB level, a whole career's worth of data might not be enough. Just trying to determine if a particular player has a non-average platoon split takes 1,000+ AB of data. Perhaps using pitch f/x data might allow you to assess batter performance on a per pitch basis and cut the nerded sample down? I don't know. I can understand relying on scouting reports in close calls but I don't think this is a close call, personally.

 

To make it clear, I am not arguing that Kotsay hasn't necessary done better against pitchers "with breaking stuff" (I have no idea), I can't disprove that Kotsay has a real advantage over those kind of pitchers (I don't know). I am simply arguing that the Brewers probably have not even attempted to quantitatively determine whether Kotsay possesses an above average skill to hit breaking pitches. I suspect it isn't even possible with any reasonable certainty. It's like trying to determine if a coin is unevenly weighted in 100 flips.

 

Is it fair to call someone an idiot based off of speculation? That's a fair question. I never called him an idiot but my estimate, based on casual observation of a small dataset, he isn't a very good manager. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

So, basically you are saying that there isn't enough data, and there likely won't be enough data (both of these things I totally agree with) to make a sound decision based upon accurate historical statistical evidence. On what then are you basing your criticism of the Roenicke's decision? It must be on the flawed aggregate historical data vs right handed pitchers:

 

Gomez career vs righties:

 

.248/.296/.346/.642 in 1066 plate appearances.

 

Kotsay's career vs righties (his last four years look very similar to these numbers in ~1000 PAs):

 

.280/.339/.415/.754 in 5000+ plate appearances.

 

So, purely by the numbers Kotsay is substantially better. Add in the scouting experience of our coaching staff who have dedicated their life to training their eyeballs to learn when they have a matchup they like and it looks even better. Again, we aren't comparing Kotsay to the mythical average player or the nameless replacement player, we have to compare Kotsay to the other option on our roster.

 

I'm not sure if that gap in production combined with scouting reports is enough to offset the defensive liability of Kotsay, but I'm not sure how you can say this decision "isn't even close."

[endaround]

Looking at just batting numbers doesn't work in this case because Gomez's speed is such a weapon. Basically Gome'z speed and power equals out any OBP edge Kotsay has. Its why Gomez has had the better season so far offensively despite have a sub .300 OBP. Kotsay, Gomez, and Boggs all look to be the same value offensively but one plays superior defense, one would likely play average defense and one is a terrible defensive player who was already made a DH due to his glove last season.

[Raw Biz]

To me it seems people like are focusing way too much on Kotsay's offense and not enough on his defense. Like endaround said, he was a DH last year. The guy has no business playing CF. I can live with a few starts a month in RF from Kotsay but he should not be playing over Gomez (or Morgan or Boggs) in CF. Any walks that Kotsay draws (basically all he is good for nowadays) are negated by his terrible defense IMO. Gomez's speed/defense/some power are worth more than Kotsay's walks/terrible defense/no power.

If we were talking about who should be playing offense only, then I could see how some might prefer Kotsay over Gomez. However, with an already below-average defense, there's no logical reason for Kotsay to start over Gomez, especially at one of the 2 most important defensive positions. This could all be moot once Morgan comes back but it seems like Roenicke loves Kotsay for some reason and is just looking for ways to get him in the lineup. That's part of why I think he's an idiot (though there are many more reasons).

[Funketown]

The difference between Gomez and Kotsay in the field is far greater than the difference between Gomez and Kotsay at bat. Kotsay is not a center fielder, nor should he be a left fielder at this point. At this point, Kotsay in CF is probably pretty similar to Braun at 3B; he can be expected to be historically bad.

[Oxy]

Yeah, I tried to defend Kotsay, but I'd rather see Carlos out there too. Especially when you factor in the entertainment value http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif. Though I certainly wouldn't get all up in arms about the decision unless it becomes a habit--which doesn't look likely since CarGo is back in there tonight against the righty. If we had great defensive corner OFers the situation might be different, but this team desperately needs Carlos' glove out there.

[Raw Biz]

I'm hating Roenicke more and more as the days go by. Why do Hart and Gomez both need a day off today? I understand if you want to rest one of them but to rest both on the same day is just stupid. I know Gomez had a rough day at the plate but he still plays outstanding defense. If you are going to rest him, Hart should be in RF and Boggs in CF. If you want to rest Hart, then Gomez should be in CF and either Boggs or Kotsay in RF. Both Boggs and Kotsay playing is asinine. Roenicke will probably justify it by saying Boggs hits guys with initials JK during 3 pm start times extremely well and we all know his love for Kotsay.