When Does Our Hitting Cause a Change?

[Warning Track Power]

In keeping with the previous "When does our defense cause a change" thread, here is another question thread...

 

McGehee has developed into a decent 3B bat and Weeks and Hart had career years at the plate last season while Dale Sveum was the hitting coach. Sveum unfortunately has had zero luck getting Gomez going at the plate. Gomez is also a younger player and a few years behind where Weeks and Hart are at in their careers. I bring this up because I am curious as to how much Sveum is having an affect on our hitters and how much it is them hitting their prime, especially in the case of Weeks and Hart. Braun and Fielder are special players who are not directly affected by hitting coaches in my opinion as they have hit and hit consistently well since being called up.

 

I think the team's approach at the plate leaves a lot, A LOT, to be desired as they have been a 3TO team for awhile now. I do not know if this is the way Sveum teaches the approach at the plate or if it is the players in general but it sure does seem to me that we never consistently get extra base hits that are not HR. Now we may stack up well at the end of the season in terms of number of 2Bs and 3Bs, but that doesn't mean we are consistently having the approach to look for those extra base hits. Much like the 20-0 Pittsburgh game that skewed runs per game stats, the same can be said for extra base hits.

 

So what do we do about that? Is it Sveum's approach to teaching our players? Is it the player's approach at the plate and can that be corrected? If not, who can we deal and what can we deal for?

 

I know I for one would gladly sacrifice a few HR that our guys hit to have a more consistent offense which puts the ball in the play instead of swinging for the fences everytime. Give me McGehee at 15 HR and Hart and Weeks at 20 HR each if it means a little more consistency in the offense.

[Raw Biz]

I have a feeling Casey will only hit about 15 and Corey about 20 already this year. I think it has more to do with our actual hitters than it does the coach. Gomez is stubborn so his approach probably won't change. Yuni is Latino is approach won't change (according to him). Corey has always swung at low outside sliders so I doubt that will change. I'm sure Sveum hasn't told them to swing for the fence every time, it's just how their makeup is.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is it Sveum's approach to teaching our players?

 

I seriously doubt Sveum is telling our players to go up pull the ball out of the stadium like it looks like they're trying to do so often. No real weight can be put into Hart's struggles so far imo. Gomez is, simply put, a terrible hitter. I don't think any hitting coach could break through that.

 

In defense of Dale, one change he made with Hart was to get Corey to hold his hands lower in his stance. Weeks also lowered his hands in the 2010 season. I think in Rickie's case, his breakout season was not much more than just staying healthy. But between seeing something like lowered hands, which looks like a Sveum tactic, and the players talking about how much Sveum has helped, I think he's probably to be credited somewhat. Players entering and/or being in their primes is probably a far more important factor, though. Should Sveum also be criticized when Brewers hitters go up to pull the ball out of the stadium like it looks like they're trying to do so often? Perhaps, but like he's probably just a small part of the success, he's also probably at most a small part of the failure. And how do you analyze it if Dale is actively telling players to stop trying to pull the ball &/or hit the ball out so much, but they're just ignoring him?

 

On Gomez, simply put, he's a terrible hitter. I don't think any hitting coach could break through that. I would feel ok if our manager would just stop being a knucklehead about it & bat him 8th or 9th. His defense has been nothing short of spectacular, and he's just a joy to watch in the field. He's probably never going to figure out how to have plate discipline, he just doesn't seem to see the ball well out of pitchers' hands. If he does, yes, he's going to be an amazing player. For now, bat him 8th or 9th, & let him run wild in the field & on the bases when he actually does reach. It's not that hard, but somehow Melvin found a manager who's determined to make it difficult.

[WV Brew]

So far 5th in HR and total bases but 10th in runs scored in the NL. 12th in walks and 12th in stolen bases (weren't the Brewers going to run more?). This team is a top heavy mess just like the Ranger teams Melvin had. Probably should look at that more closely than Sveum. Don't forget all the at bats by Edmonds, Cain and Zaun (among others) last year that we won't get this year.

[chadomac]

I haven't seen enough of him this year yet to judge - but Hart stopped waiving at that low and away pitch last year... which contributed a lot to his success.

[Warning Track Power]

So far 5th in HR and total bases but 10th in runs scored in the NL. 12th in walks and 12th in stolen bases (weren't the Brewers going to run more?). This team is a top heavy mess just like the Ranger teams Melvin had. Probably should look at that more closely than Sveum. Don't forget all the at bats by Edmonds, Cain and Zaun (among others) last year that we won't get this year.

*Edmonds/Cain over Gomez no doubt. Absolutely no doubt. I'm hoping Nyjer may be able to replicate some of their discipline though.

*Lucroy has proven to be more than I could have hoped for. I do not count him as part of a the problem at all as I rarely see him come out of his shoes to try and do anything.

 

My concerns are more with Hart and McGehee's approaches.

[Raw Biz]

I've never been a Hart fan so I think last year may just be a fluke. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I am. I know he's only been playing for a few weeks combined but he's still swinging at that low and away pitch.

[The Truth]

I'm pretty big on OBP, and in that regard Betancourt & Gomez are absolutely brutal. I think Nyjer Morgan will be starting most of the time vs RHP so that mitigates the Gomez disaster factor somewhat. Nieves is also brutal as a hitter, but most teams' back-up catchers are pretty awful hitters, so as long as we don't start Nieves often we'll be OK there

 

Our bench is very thin. When Mark Kotsay is your best bench bat that is rough. Currently today unless a move is made, Wil Nieves is our only right-handed bench bat and that is scary

 

McGehee is off to a slow start, and he is certainly not a potential All-Star, but he should be OK. Would like to see him get closer to the .360 OBP of '09 than the .337 OBP of '10... Corey Hart will likely be solid as well

[logan82]

Not sure what people expect of Hart in his second week of Spring Training. That is where he is at right now.

 

I don't know why we are hitting well but not scoring runs but if I had to guess it would have something to do with only Weeks, Fielder and Braun really hitting well. We are running into dumb outs on the bases. Kotsay has started way to much. Gomez hitting second for some odd reason. Just a bunch of little things that are adding up to nothing.

[Raw Biz]

Not sure what people expect of Hart in his second week of Spring Training. That is where he is at right now.

Like I said, I was never a big Corey Hart fan to begin with. I know this is basically his second week of Spring Training. Some guys need more time than others to get it going. But I don't see him replicating what he did last year and think he will probably be closer to his late '08-'09 form. I'm predicting around .265/.310/.450 with maybe 15-20 HR.

[monty57]

I don't put much blame or credit on the hitting coach's shoulders. Our offense has been overly reliant on the HR for the past few seasons, and it probably will be this year as well. That leads to periods where we score a lot, and periods where we have a hard time scoring, depending on when the big bats are hot. I think the big thing right now is that Braun & Fielder got hot & then cooled off at the same time. We looked unstoppable when they were hot, and now we're floundering. Either of them is capable of carrying the team on their own, so hopefully one of them will heat back up again quickly.

My biggest concern for the offense coming into this season was which Corey Hart would arrive... the All-Star from early 2008 & all of 2010, or the guy we wanted to lynch late 2008 & most of 2009. If he is able to perform at a >.800 OPS level, and fit into the #2 hole, then our offense should be fine. If he's around .750 OPS like 2009, then we have some worries. With healthy Weeks, "good" Hart, normal Braun & Fielder and 2009-10 McGehee, our offense will be above average. If one or two of those don't pan out, we don't have the depth to cover for it.

Playing Morgan more vs. RH pitchers, both in CF as a platoon, and occasionally in RF (especially to keep Kotsay as a bench bat) should help the team's OBP. Limiting the amount of PAs by Nieves and doing something to get us another MLB-quality bat on the bench will help the offense as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Would like to see him get closer to the .360 OBP of '09 than the .337 OBP of '10

 

I think 2010 is a much better representation of what to expect from Casey than '09. If he can reproduce roughly a .340 OBP, I will be happy.

[endaround]

Not sure what people expect of Hart in his second week of Spring Training. That is where he is at right now.

 

I don't know why we are hitting well but not scoring runs but if I had to guess it would have something to do with only Weeks, Fielder and Braun really hitting well. We are running into dumb outs on the bases. Kotsay has started way to much. Gomez hitting second for some odd reason. Just a bunch of little things that are adding up to nothing.

Don't forget Lucroy. Though again him hitting 8th has been some what of a waste.

[logan82]

Not sure what people expect of Hart in his second week of Spring Training. That is where he is at right now.

 

I don't know why we are hitting well but not scoring runs but if I had to guess it would have something to do with only Weeks, Fielder and Braun really hitting well. We are running into dumb outs on the bases. Kotsay has started way to much. Gomez hitting second for some odd reason. Just a bunch of little things that are adding up to nothing.

Don't forget Lucroy. Though again him hitting 8th has been some what of a waste.

Forgot Lucroy. I am looking forward to Morgan getting more playing time as well. We don't really need any big changes. We just need players to play to their abilities and our manager to quit making so many stupid lineup decisions.

[Invader3K]

Craig Counsell is a weak link that should possibly be looked at right now. I know he hasn't had a ton of ABs so far this year, but he is only hitting .188 with a .278 OBP. His defense has also seemed suspect at times. Maybe the fact that he's 40 has caught up with him.

[logan82]

The bench really does add almost nothing. I really don't care if Kotsay has been deemed acceptable to this point. There really is little reason to expect him to continue being acceptable.

[rluzinski]

Our offense has been overly reliant on the HR for the past few seasons, and it probably will be this year as well. That leads to periods where we score a lot, and periods where we have a hard time scoring, depending on when the big bats are hot.

 

I don't believe that a high SLG offense makes the team more susceptible to long periods of high or low run production (not that it would really matter in terms of total games won). Hot and cold streaks are almost completely random.

 

Having a power-heavy lineup might slightly increase the variance in runs/game (score 5 or more runs or 3 or less a little more often). That WOULD result in less overall runs. That usually becomes pretty irrelevant though, as a high SLG offense usually is going to score more runs than their small ball counterpart anyway.

 

I believe that relying on one or two batters for a larger than average amount of your run production also increases the variance in runs/game. In the most extreme case, if you have 9 average batters, their random hot and cold streaks would have a tendency to balance each other out in terms of runs/game. On the other end, if one batter is ALL your production, his cold streak is the entire offense's cold streak.

 

The Brewers offense kind of looks like this:

 

Fielder

Braun

.

.

.

Weeks

Hart

.

.

.

.

.

.

everyone else

 

It would be interesting to see how that compares with other teams.

[DuWayne Steurer]

rluzinski wrote:

 

Having a power-heavy lineup might slightly increase the variance in runs/game (score 5 or more runs or 3 or less a little more often).

Actually it doesn't. I did a research/article on this for another website about 3 years back, and divided the games by 0-1 runs, 2-3 runs, 4-5 runs (being average) 6-7 runs, 8-9 runs, or 10 or more runs. What I found (to my surprise) was that the teams that scored a lot of runs, but did so with a lower slugging percentage actually were more to the extremes, having more games where they'd score 0-3 runs, but also more games where they'd score 8 or more. This caught me completely by surprise in all honesty, to see the so called 'slugging' teams show more consistency in their run scoring distribution. It's not on this computer, it's on my old PC downstairs, so I'll look later and see if I can dig it up and share it.

[MJLiverock]

I really like rluzinski's chart there, maybe even move Hart down a little more but it shows how reliant the team is on Braun/Fielder. An interesting study that falls into the naked eyes test but not have a real idea if it is true or not is the correlation of Brewer hitters to one another. It seems that the team is either all hot or all cold at once rather than 2 or 3 hot guys 2 or 3 performing to normal, and 2- 3 slumping. Like right now, is there anyone on the team hot?

 

Answering my own question for anyone hot? Nope, over the last week Kotsay has the best batting average at .286 in 8 PA's, Weeks has the best average has a regular at .273. Everyone else is at .227 or lower - - pretty miserable week. Even stretching it out the last 2 weeks show Weeks at .359, Kotsay .348, Betancourt .317, Braun .292 with a bunch below .250, not a surprise given the lack of runs but showing no one is really hitting. The Cardinals for instance have Berkman at .463, Holiday at .392, Freese was at .394 before getting hurt, those are some hot guys.

 

The Brewers are dead last NL in the last 7 days in BABIP at .199 (2nd to last is at .243) compared to the Braves on top at .329.

[monty57]

I now remember what I had blocked from my mind watching the Brewers last season. When the team is struggling to score runs, it appears that everyone on the team tries to hit a monster home run with every swing, leading to a lot of wild swings & misses, high strikeout totals by opposing pitchers, and no runs scored. In my euphoria at the offseason trades for Greinke and Marcum, I pushed my negative feelings about the all-or-nothing offense right out of mind.

 

What I found (to my surprise) was that the teams that scored a lot of runs, but did so with a lower slugging percentage actually were more to the extremes, having more games where they'd score 0-3 runs, but also more games where they'd score 8 or more.

 

Roco, that may be true about teams in aggregate, but look at the number of high run & low run games by the Brewers last year. I remember looking at the results near the end of last year, and if I recall correctly, there was a ridiculously high percentage of games where the Brewers scored in the "extremes."

[monty57]

Last season:

 

0 runs - 14 games (8.7%)

1 run - 12 games (7.45%)

2 runs - 18 games (11.18%)

3 runs - 26 games (16.15%)

4 runs - 24 games (14.91%)

5 runs - 13 games (8.07%)

6 runs - 14 games (8.70%)

7 runs - 10 games (6.21%)

8 runs - 14 games (8.70%)

9 runs - 3 games (1.86%)

10+ runs - 13 games (8.07%)

 

I don't know how that stacks up to teams historically, but scoring 3 or fewer runs in 43.48% of your games and still having a top 5 offense based on runs scored don't seem to jibe unless you figure in the multiple 20 run games the Brewers put together in 2010.

 

Note: they only played 161 games last year, due to a late rainout that wasn't made up.

[Oldcity]

I think the team's approach at the plate leaves a lot, A LOT, to be desired as they have been a 3TO team for awhile now.

They aren't a 3TO team. The Red Sox of recent years are a 3TO team. The Brewers don't draw enough walks.

[logan82]

Last season:

 

0 runs - 14 games (8.7%)

1 run - 12 games (7.45%)

2 runs - 18 games (11.18%)

3 runs - 26 games (16.15%)

4 runs - 24 games (14.91%)

5 runs - 13 games (8.07%)

6 runs - 14 games (8.70%)

7 runs - 10 games (6.21%)

8 runs - 14 games (8.70%)

9 runs - 3 games (1.86%)

10+ runs - 13 games (8.07%)

 

I don't know how that stacks up to teams historically, but scoring 3 or fewer runs in 43.48% of your games and still having a top 5 offense based on runs scored don't seem to jibe unless you figure in the multiple 20 run games the Brewers put together in 2010.

 

Note: they only played 161 games last year, due to a late rainout that wasn't made up.

That's the problem. Without knowing how that stacks up against teams historically you are just throwing things against the wall. You need context to read anything inot it.

[TheCrew07]

I've been saying it for a long time, and I know it's not a popular opinion, but I honestly feel that nothing with this organization is going to change until Melvin and his chronie Nichols are gone.

[Hammer]

I've been saying it for a long time, and I know it's not a popular opinion, but I honestly feel that nothing with this organization is going to change until Melvin and his chronie Nichols are gone.

I'm starting to agree TC07. The thought of drafting for the offense and figuring out where to play them later is ok once in a while but when it becomes a mantra your defense looks like the 2011 Brewers...and now, the hitters have purchased flimsy bats!