When does our defense cause a trade?

[monty57]

Fielder has always been a bad fielder (no pun intended), but this year he has potentially been the worst 1B I've ever seen. He can't scoop the ball, has no range, has no reach, balls bounce out of his glove, and now he can't even throw the ball straight. His defense has single-handedly cost us quite a few runs already this season. He will be missed when he is gone, but it wil be nice to see someone with a clue defensively at 1B in the future.

 

Essentially, we have two good defenders on the team in Gomez and Morgan, and unfortunately they rarely play at the same time because they play the same position, and our manager feels that Kotsay should start in RF over Morgan when Hart's not playing. The only real defensive upgrade that has any chance of happening this season (barring injury or falling out of the race) would be to pick up another SS.

[logan82]

SS or 3B is likely where we might get an upgrade. It seems like we can always find a 3B if needed. I still have the same expectations for McGehee and Betancourt I had going into the season. I see almost no way Fielder or Weeks are removed.

 

In order I would guess

Betancourt

McGehee

several other backup infielder moves

nothing

Fielder

Weeks

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

As I've said before, I think defense is overrated here. I will grant you that the defense has been atrocious as of late, but it hasn't really mattered because you aren't going to win any games if you can't score any runs.

I used to think that as well, but this year has shown me how important it can be. Look at Greinke's first inning last night. They field the ball, he has a fairly easy inning, and who knows how the rest of the outing goes. Errors lead to long, stress innings on starters. Which eventually taxes an already shaky bullpen.

[MJLiverock]

Using last night is the epitome of small sample, of course picking a game where errors or bad plays occur shows how important defense can be. If I posted after a game where the team made the same mistakes and had won and used that as an example of how defense doesn't matter I am sure there would be an uproar.

 

The Brewer defense isn't good but last night's game wasn't the norm. The Cardinals made two errors last night and lost the game does that mean they are terrible all the time as well?

 

There isn't much that can be done about the D because as has been mentioned, Fielder being one of the weakest and making others even worse, happens to be one of the two best hitters on the team so he can't be benched or easily replaced. Betancourt isn't good but there aren't any viable replacements out there, maybe some guys who would be marginally at best better but also much worse at the plate. McGehee -- the Brewer's have been looking for a 3rd baseman since the days prior to Braun. Weeks is O.K., he has his moments of gaffs but every player does, range usually isn't his problem, and if Fielder could catch or stretch it would make Weeks a lot better.

 

The one area of D that I think gets over rated the most is corner outfield. Given the limited number of chances that are even questionable out there, there is way too much emphasis on their impact in stats like WAR. I don't worry too much about Braun or Hart out there having any more impact negatively on the team than an average corner guy.

[Raw Biz]

Using last night is the epitome of small sample, of course picking a game where errors or bad plays occur shows how important defense can be. If I posted after a game where the team made the same mistakes and had won and used that as an example of how defense doesn't matter I am sure there would be an uproar.

 

The Brewer defense isn't good but last night's game wasn't the norm. The Cardinals made two errors last night and lost the game does that mean they are terrible all the time as well?

Yes, last night wasn't the norm in that there will most likely not be 2-3 errors every game. However, there have been multiple terrible throws/decisions that have led to runs that don't show up as errors. I have more of a problem with these mental mistakes and they seem to happen a few times a week. I'll agree that there probably isn't much that can be done at this point, other than possibly get a new SS by the deadline. I think guys (mainly Casey and Prince) need to make better decisions out there.

[dadofandrew]

They are still +5 in UZR on the season. They are -3 in DRS. That puts them either above average or right about average.

 

The irony to me is simple...people always say to use the metrics, you can't trust "what you see"...but this year, when the metrics do not give the desired response, it's one excuse after another. The defense was average last season, and it's average this year. The best defender is Gomez, who is roundly criticized for not being an average offensive player...and around we go.

 

You won't see changes made because of average defense. Saying it's below that over and over doesn't make it so.

[brains and braun]

I would expect that we will be below average by those metrics once the season is over. And shortstop is a position that remains upgradable in terms of D without breaking the bank.

[TooLiveBrew]

The irony to me is simple...people always say to use the metrics

 

Of course, no one says this, but you can't be a contrarian without saying "people always" do. People say use both, & do your best to make an intelligent decision.

[RockCoCougars]

As I've said before, I think defense is overrated here.

 

Tell that to Zack Grienke. The bad defense last night is an example of how it taxes your starting (aka best) pitchers unnecessarily. McGehee & Betancourt don't cover much ground, some goes for Prince. So that leaves one plus defender in Weeks, who's actually probably closer to average. Ground balls finding holes is a huge part of what gets called luck, and as you saw in yesterday's games, can be a big difference in runs scoring or not.

That game could have went 15 innings and the Brewers probably wouldn't have scored unless someone hit a solo jack, so the errors were pretty moot. I will grant that the defense has been horrendous since last weekend and it's definitely hurting the team, but not as much as the total offensive dissipation has. Could poor defensive play put the team between the eight ball, deflate the spirits and possibly even carry over to offense? Sure, but the major problem in my eyes is that this team looks exactly like last year in that they will likely not score unless someone hits a home run. They'll have some big offensive games and score a lot of runs when everything is clicking (thus making the team stats look better than they actually are). I'm not saying the defense isn't an issue, but the offense is at least twice the problem right now.

[Flood Pants]

Players who hit well and defend poorly are probably more valuable, in general, than players who do the opposite. But when just about every player is weak in the field, I think there may be a cumulative negative effect that's hard to quantify with the basic "runs created vs. runs allowed" math. I hope I'm just overreacting over one bad game. I'd have no problem with any single player's bad defense if the other players around him were at least average. But that's not the case for our infield.

[The Truth]

They are still +5 in UZR on the season. They are -3 in DRS. That puts them either above average or right about average.

I think that does alot more to discredit the validity of UZR & DRS than it does to somehow prop the Brewers defense up to where it could be thought of as "average"

[logan82]

They are still +5 in UZR on the season. They are -3 in DRS. That puts them either above average or right about average.

I think that does alot more to discredit the validity of UZR & DRS than it does to somehow prop the Brewers defense up to where it could be thought of as "average"

Not really. It is way to early to be using those stats for anything meaningful. Not sure how they work on a team scale but on an individual player scale you need something like 3 years worht of data and still have to regress halfway for a projection.

 

 

[Funketown]

I think that does alot more to discredit the validity of UZR & DRS than it does to somehow prop the Brewers defense up to where it could be thought of as "average"

You seem to use every bit of evidence you can find to "discredit" UZR. I mean, should we also discredit OBP because the Twins are at a .292 clip so far?

 

Give it time. The only way the Brewers will be positive at the end of the year is if Morgan and Gomez see a ton of playing time.

[DHonks]

check out the picture of Prince on Jsonline.com. Shouldn't his left leg and arm be pointing in the same direction? In the past, people have pointed out that a flaw is that he steps long before he knows the path of the ball...this pic seems to confirm it. It might have been an out this time, but it would explain why so many seemingly routine plays are out of reach for him....terrible footwork

[The Truth]

You seem to use every bit of evidence you can find to "discredit" UZR.

I'll chill out on that if I'm beginning to sound like a broken record player. It is not just UZR, it is all defensive stats that I find very arbitrary at best and honestly pretty useless as opposed to common sense scouting.

 

For instance, what is the stat for ground ball that the average Single A player gets to easily that Fielder or Betancourt let through the infield? What is the stat that describes the range of Mark Kotsay in the outfield? etc etc yadda yadda

[endaround]

You seem to use every bit of evidence you can find to "discredit" UZR.

I'll chill out on that if I'm beginning to sound like a broken record player. It is not just UZR, it is all defensive stats that I find very arbitrary at best and honestly pretty useless as opposed to common sense scouting.

 

For instance, what is the stat for ground ball that the average Single A player gets to easily that Fielder or Betancourt let through the infield? What is the stat that describes the range of Mark Kotsay in the outfield? etc etc yadda yadda

Its called UZR. Look at the breakdowns on fangraphs.

[TheCrew07]

UZR has plenty of holes in it, the metric certianly isn't perfect, and zone system won't be.

[danzig6767]

For as flawed as defensive metrics are, especially in small samples like 31 games is, i have no problem with using my eyes to deduce that this is a below average defensive team at best.

 

I can look at the guys who play everyday or nearly everyday and see that the only very clear plus defender out there is Gomez. On the infield, Prince, Yuni, and Casey are all below average defensively. Braun is below average. Hart is better than Braun at judging balls off the bat, but his arm is very inaccurate. So there is no way that a team can be so lacking in plus defenders while having multiple below average defenders, and somewhere be an average defensive team. I do think though that all the shifts we use has helped the defense overall by preventing more would be hits than the shifts have turned would be outs into hits.

 

As for fixing or helping the defense, i don't see much that Doug can do at this point. None of Prince, Weeks, Braun, and Hart have any chance of being traded. McGehee is only making about 550,000 dollars, good luck trying to find a better overall option for thirdbase at that price. Gomez is easily our best defensive player. Maybe at some point Melvin could try trading for a better shortstop, but we have few trade chips left in the minors and odds are nobody is going to consider trading players until around the deadline.

 

We'll likely be shuffling some pitchers up and down from the minors during the year, but until the deadline at least, odds are high that from a position player stance, this is the team that the Brewers will sink or swim with.

[The Truth]

Forgive me for the laziness of not searching for this on my own, but when is McGehee arbitration eligible? Because yeah, at $550,000 McGehee is a great value, but once he starts making more $$$, an upgrade in terms of production per dollar spent might be wise

[RightFieldCoder]

Next year.

[rluzinski]

The irony to me is simple...people always say to use the metrics, you can't trust "what you see"...but this year, when the metrics do not give the desired response, it's one excuse after another.

It's ironic that after years of reading this message board, you would make such an accusation. The people who understand the concept of sample size know when NOT to use the metrics.