SI Ranks Top 25 Draft Prospects

[tstads20]

SI's John Heyman released a list where he ranked the current top 25 draftees based on talent, health, and recent performance, along with 10 other intriguing prospects (who I assume would round out his top 35?).

 

One of the interesting bits here is that he also has Sonny Gray kind of low, coming in at #10. Maybe there is a chance Brewers could have a shot at him?

 

Here is the the top 10 with some of his descriptions:

 

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP, UCLA. The consensus is that the

strong-armed junior, who has been clocked up to 99 mph, still goes 1 or 2

despite his recent slump that has left him 4-5 with a 3.45 ERA for the

season. He was drafted by the Yankees in the first round in 2008 but

decided at the last minute he didn't want to sign, declining to even

hear New York's offers even though he was previously seen as a Yankee

fan. He's been impressive at UCLA, though slightly less so of late.

"He's in a bit of a rut trying to live up to his billing,'' one scout

said. Still, his stuff suggests top-of-the-rotation starter. Tough to

pass up.

2. Francisco Lindor, SS, Florida HS.

Power-hitting shortstop could supplant injured third baseman Anthony

Rendon to make it into the top two. Multitalented and plays a "premium

position,'' and "has a lot of upside,'' one NL scouting director said of

the 17-year-old. "He's developed some pretty good pop,'' one scout

said. He has an athletic build, a la Alfonso Soriano.

3. Danny Hultzen, LHP, University of Virginia.

He's "streaking up the board,'' one scouting director said and has

replaced injured TCU's Matt Purke as the top lefthanded college pitcher.

Hultzen has very good stuff, though one scouting director questioned

whether he could be an ace. He turned down an offer of "first-round

money'' with the promise to allow him to attend school from the

Diamondbacks three years ago. That gamble will pay off big for him.

4. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice.

"He's a tremendous defender,'' one scout said. "Big track record,''

said another. The one issue is a shoulder injury that's kept him to

DHing all year. While it isn't believed to be serious, one scouting

director said it's enough of a concern when you're talking about a

player who's going to exceed a $5 million signing bonus to drop him out

of the top two, and perhaps even more than that.

5. Bubba Starling, OF, Kansas HS.

"Tremendous athlete who's a five-tool player,'' an NL scouting director

said. The University of Nebraska quarterback recruit is in line for a

big bonus due to his leverage. The hometown Royals, who pick No. 4 and

don't skimp on the draft, make sense.

6. Trevor Bauer, RHP, UCLA.

He's "shooting up the draft,'' one scout said of the pitcher who's

pitching brilliantly as the No. 2 man, behind Cole, for the Bruins.

Bauer is 5-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 84 strikeouts in 53 innings pitched. He

has been likened to Tim Lincecum, which only helps him, as a smallish

(6'2", 185 pounds) righthander with a unique delivery; previously, that

might have caused teams to shy away from him. Now it's all positive.

"Has swing-and-miss stuff,'' said one scouting director.

7. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Oklahoma HS.

Big-time talent pitches at 96-to-98 mph but has touched 100. "If any

scouting director has (guts), they'd take him No. 1,'' one scouting

director said. Bundy is said to have a bulldog attitude to go with his

big pitches. Righthanded high school pitchers just don't go No. 1, but

he has a good chance to be in the top 10, perhaps even the top 5.

8. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, South Carolina HS.

Has "big arm and big upside,'' one scouting director said. Had a small

off-field knock involving the switching of schools, which is not

considered a big issue.

9. Matt Barnes, RHP, Connecticut.

A good looking righty "with a lot of upside,'' one scouting director

said. Some believe the cold-weather guys such as Barnes can make a leap

forward once they have a great chance to play more often in a warmer

climate. Looks like a big leaguer.

10. Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt.

Big-time arm has touched 97/98 mph. "He's a little guy with a power

arm, a max effort guy with electric stuff,'' one scout said of the 5'11,

180-pound junior. "Real good athlete,'' said another scout. Could wind

up as a closer.

 

And even though their position here does not necessarily dictate where they'll go, just to get a feel here's numbers 12 and 15:

 

12. Josh Bell, OF, Texas HS. Multidimensional kid with a "really

high ceiling,'' one scout said. One said the best comp could be Braves

outfielder Jason Heyward, though Heyward was more advanced than him or

just about any high school player. Another five-tool kid.

15. Archie Bradley, RHP, Oklahoma HS. Throws in the mid 90s with a

dynamic curveball. Entered the year as one of the top five players but

"hasn't been great'' this year, said one scout who projected Bradley

would go in the middle of the first round. Another two-sport star, he

has a football scholarship to Oklahoma. Said by one scout to be an

exceptionally nice young man who is perhaps "a bit too nice on the

mound."

Your thoughts on his rankings?

 

[colbyjack]

It's not that Heyman's rankings are that out of whack, but he's not exactly the guy you go to for draft coverage. He is using a lot of scout-based quotes, but I wouldn't exactly characterize Lindor as a "power-hitting shortstop," and Jed Bradley's omission from the top 10 is pretty glaring.

[tstads20]

Yeah, I was pretty stunned to see Lindor that high. I have a hard time believing that injured or not, Rendon will fall out of the top 2. He's still DHing.

 

I was interested to see what everyone made of his rankings. More and more am I seeing Sonny Gray fall though, and I'm hoping the Brewers could get a shot at him.

 

Unfortunate they can't trade up in the baseball draft, lol. If they did that, the draft would probably last a week.

[brewerguy71]

I agree with Colbyjack's assessment of Heyman here. Lindor could be a top 5 guy though, but over Rendon? No way.

 

As for the Brewer picks my choices/hopes would be Matt Barnes and Blake Swihart.

 

If available, I would not take Gray over a guy like Barnes or Archie Bradley though.

[colbyjack]

Lindor is a legit talent. I agree with brewerguy71 that I wouldn't take him ahead of Rendon, but he's not far from being the #2 prospect overall. The Nationals reportedly have been on him hard for their #6 pick, and the Royals may be interested at #5. He has some power and intriguing overall offensive potential that could hit 10-15 homers a year, but again, that isn't what I would label a power-hitting shortstop.

 

However, I am still surprised by how many people have Dylan Bundy as low as they do. I think I mentioned before that some scouts think he's the best prep pitching prospect since Josh Beckett, which is saying a lot. That's better than guys like Taillon and Porcello who had pretty lofty scouting profiles at the same point in their careers. The D-Backs brass has been scouting him pretty hard, and they may have a tough choice between Bundy and Hultzen at #3 (assuming one of them isn't taken 1 or 2). I would not be surprised if the Pirates took a player considered somewhat of a surprise pick (such as Bundy or possibly even Bubba Starling), as Rendon and Cole aren't universally viewed as the slam dunks many think they are. Bundy recently hit 100 mph, and has been consistently throwing 94-96 all spring with great command and offspeed stuff.

 

And it's not so much that Gray is falling, but there are just so many guys putting themselves in the conversation for the top 10 overall picks.

 

I found out last night that Archie Bradley is indeed asking for more than what Zach Lee got last year ($5.25 million). I think you're going to see a lot of teams pass on him because of that. I could see a team that doesn't have a first-round pick (such as the Detroit Tigers, and possibly the White Sox in the sandwich round) take him if he slides out of the first round altogether and sign him for big money similar to what the Tigers did with Nick Castellanos a year ago.

EDIT: I should have mentioned Trevor Bauer as well above, as he is generating more and more interest among teams picking in the top 3-5 overall picks. For every doubter there is someone that remembers not to look past smaller guys with big stuff such as Lincecum and even Mike Leake.

[tstads20]

I found out last night that Archie Bradley is indeed asking for more than what Zach Lee got last year ($5.25 million). I think you're going to see a lot of teams pass on him because of that. I could see a team that doesn't have a first-round pick (such as the Detroit Tigers, and possibly the White Sox in the sandwich round) take him if he slides out of the first round altogether and sign him for big money similar to what the Tigers did with Nick Castellanos a year ago.

That is the one thing I can't stand about amateur drafts, especially in baseball. Why should rookies be guaranteed these lucrative deals before playing one game of pro ball? In football, at least the players have opportunities to immediately impact the team for the upcoming season, some of these guys never see the majors in their careers (as may be the case with Eric Arnett, but that's another conversation).

 

If baseball isn't going to have a salary cap for major league payrolls, I think the least they can do is install a rookie salary cap so that teams like the Rays aren't forced to pass on a better talent because they can't afford to pay them $5 million when they rely on building through their farm system. Not that every guy asks for that much money, but it certainly favors markets like Boston and New York in being able to select anyone they want instead of someone who will sign at a reasonable price.

[interestobserver]

Baseball has no legal right to impose slotting or even a draft since this is illegal restraint of trade. The union can bargain that right away, but baseball has to give up something in return.

[DHonks]

interestobserver...yes, baseball has no right to impose slotting or restrict trade, just as its illegal to force players to be slaves for organizations for 6-9 years before free agency, it's against the law for the owners to force minor leaguers to play in spring training without pay, and it's illegal for college players to be ineligible for the draft before 21 years old. Seriously, your statement is ridiculous. Is it illegal for players to demand first class travel, first class hotels without roommates, daily meal money on roadtrips, a $400k salary floor, etc. No! It's called Collective Bargaining, not a restriction of free trade.

[gregmag]

DHonks, I'm not sure why you're bashing the previous post so hard, given that you seem to be saying the same thing. Interestobserver made the point that MLB could not unilaterally impose a slotting system but that the union was free to bargain for other concessions in exchange for submitting to such a system. Isn't that the gist of your point about collective bargaining as well?

[DHonks]

Gregmag, perhaps I read it wrong. I thought that interestobserver was claiming that MLB's attempts to try to manipulate the draft are illegal and wrong, along with being unlikely to happen because the Union would be foolish. That was the tone I read it with. I was reading it as interestobserver was probably a college age student in that's recently learned a lot about trade rights in the free market place, although I guess I now would assume he's a banker since I'm re-reading his name.

 

I was probably being way too sarcastic, but I believe MLB can do anything it wants, especially since the players Union is the most pliable that it's ever been. The CBA determines the rules of baseball, and it is NOT a truly free market (although it's free-er than other sports).

 

I apologize if I read things in between the lines that weren't there....probably stress from all of my Econ students taking finals yesterday

[endaround]

MLB doesn't want to do anything. The union gave the owners permission to tinker with the draft last time and the owners couldn't agree on anything. As long as certain teams benefit from the current set up its going to be hard to get anything done.

[mothershipconnection]

I'd assume the union would be perfectly happy with shifting that money from the draft to MLB salary/benefits, as the union represents MLB players.

[monty57]

MLB doesn't want to do anything. The union gave the owners permission to tinker with the draft last time and the owners couldn't agree on anything. As long as certain teams benefit from the current set up its going to be hard to get anything done.

Yeah, when certain teams, which happen to be the big markets (aka big revenue markets for MLB), are able to nab top talent later in the draft, I don't see any changes coming.

 

[HiAndTight]

MLB doesn't want to do anything. The union gave the owners permission to tinker with the draft last time and the owners couldn't agree on anything. As long as certain teams benefit from the current set up its going to be hard to get anything done.

I don't see how them not being able to come to an agreement the last CBA inherently suggests not only that they didn't WANT to do anything the last time, and in particular that they don't want to do anything this time around.

 

I'd say there has been a pretty strong consensus recently from GM's and other execs that the draft system is in need of reform and that it's atop their issues for the next CBA.