They say every team wins 60 games and loses 60 games...

[BuckyBrewer61]

...and the season comes down to what a team does in the other 40 or so could-go-either-way type games. Now, obviously this is just a saying, and I am purposely not posting this after a loss so as to sound reactionary or alarmist. I am aware it is only the start of May and that over the course of 162 games things even out, but is anyone else concerned with how many close games the Brewers are losing? And not just close games, but close games in dramatic and even heartbreaking fashion. It's one thing to lose a game by one or two runs that you've been trailing the entire time, but feels entirely different, at least as a fan, to lose a game by one or two runs late on walk-offs, an error, poor bullpen pitching etc.

I am not claiming the team is "unclutch" or trying to find some trend in any of this. I'm just saying that it feels as though the Crew has lost a number of close games in dramatic fashion to start the year, more than they have won, and in a division that figures to be very close those losses mean just as much as they do in September. Just for the sake of discussion, games I am referring to:

3/31 @ Cin: 3-run lead blown in bottom of the ninth.

4/4 vs. Atl: 1-run lead blown in 8th.

4/15 @ Was: Error in 10th leads to winning run.

4/20 @ Phi: Blow 3-run lead in 6th and give up go ahead HR in 8th.

4/23 vs. Hou: Give up 3 runs in 10th.

4/27 vs. Cin: Give up HR in 10th.

4/30 @ Hou: Walk-off single after no on, 2 out in 9th.

1-3 in extra inning games

4-6 in one-run games

3-6 in games decided by winning team's last at bat

0-3 in walk-off games

Now granted, there are examples of the opposite (McGehee's HR in 8th vs. Cubs, Weeks' HR in 8th vs. Reds), but they are fewer and far between. 7 of the Brewers 14 losses have come in heartbreaking fashion. Maybe it's more of a concern to my mental health than it should be to the Brewers, but for the sake of discussion has anyone else been concerned that these games may just come back to bite us in the end?

[crossface21]

I think it should absolutely be a cause for concern. Being able to close out games and win the close ones is a trademark of good teams. It is still early and they can get better, but in a couple weeks if the Brewers have 3 or 4 more of these ones they let get away, it very well could mean the difference in a playoff spot.

[pebadger]

Maybe the Giants will execute really poorly on a punt and give the team a chance to save what appears to be a maddeningly disappointing season.

[DHonks]

Two ways I look at it...1) do you have more winning streaks of value than key losing streaks? 2) Did you win more that you should have lost, that lose that you should have won?

[rluzinski]

How the Brewers have won or lost is pretty much irrelevant with regard to making the playoffs. They are 2 games under .500, so they have a lot of work to do to make the playoffs. That's what concerns me.

[lcbj68c]

What's the common theme in these losses? Bullpen management...or lackthereof.

[Flood Pants]

What's the common theme in these losses? Bullpen management...or lackthereof.

Nah... the bullpen management has been fine. I think whenever relief pitchers fail the manager gets blamed for using them, but you can manage the bullpen right and still have your pitchers not pitch well. Inconsistent offensive production and defensive miscues concern me much more.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Yeah, there's a common theme in the early season, and it definitely seems to be 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory'.

 

Now, popular theory holds that this will 'all even out' over the course of 162 games. No. No it doesn't. If you blow a 3 run lead today in ugly fashion by kicking the ball around or whatever and lose, that does NOT mean that there is some cosmic, balancing force that will cause you to win a game you should have lost somewhere down the road. Each game is in it's entirety, a separate event from all those before and after, and can not in any way, shape or form be subjected to some 'balance' that will make sure that things don't get too far out of whack.

 

Each of these ugly early season losses that you look at and say "Ugh. That was a W" is something that will be looked at if/when the team lands a few games short of a playoff spot.

[Invader3K]

Inconsistent offensive production and defensive miscues concern me much more.

I agree on the inconsistent offense. The hitting has been terrible the last several games.

[mothershipconnection]

But Roco, there's no need for an invisible hand of luck - just for your team to only blow as many plays, make as many base running gaffes, and have relievers give up as many runs as league average. If you suck no more than everyone else, over a large sample the games you lose by sucking should be offset by games when you opponents suck. Now, if you suck in those areas worse than the rest of the league, luck will not bring the balance back to 0.

[monty57]

I'm with RoCo on this. Even if all "luck" balances out, and we "suck no more than everyone else," who's to say that it will balance to even for the Brewers? Maybe the other teams' bad plays occur with 2 outs and no one on and don't lead to a run, or maybe they occur in a game that's already a blowout. Or, maybe the other teams' bad plays don't occur against the Brewers, so they are far & away the "unlucky" team in the games they play. As RoCo pointed out, all teams make bad plays, but just because we make a bad play which directly leads to a loss today, it doesn't mean someone else will make a bad play which directly leads to a Brewers' win in the future.

 

Some of our "bad luck" would go away if we would get healthy. Some would go away if we would stop throwing guys like Green out there with the game on the line. Some will go away when we finally decide the Hart is "ready to hit #2" and "ready to play everyday" over Kotsay. Some will go away when Yo remembers how to pitch. Some would have went the other way if Saito would have admitted he was hurt before giving up the game. In other words some of our "bad luck" isn't really "bad luck."

 

Hitters will have bad streaks, pitchers will have bad outings, and even the best closers blow saves. We've had some bad outings at inopportune times, and over the last few days we haven't hit well. We need to limit our losses and get on a bit of a roll, and we have the horses to go on a nice winning streak that will erase a lot of our worries.

[rluzinski]

If you suck no more than everyone else, over a large sample the games you lose by sucking should be offset by games when you opponents suck.

 

I believe he was referring to "The Gamblers Fallacy". Going forward, we would expect the luck portion of winning or losing to even out over enough games (lots!). What has already happened THIS season does not enter in that equation, though. The Brewers are not "due".

 

And when we are talking about luck, we aren't talking about skill in any way. A huge part of luck in baseball is just the order that batting events occur:

 

Double, walk, walk, out, out, out = zero runs

 

Walk, walk, out, out, double, out = 1 or 2 runs

 

Yes, there is SOME skill involved in that but there is also a lot of luck. Ground balls finding holes at particular moments is a hugeeee part of the luck factor of baseball.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I believe he was referring to "The Gamblers Fallacy". Going forward, we would expect the luck portion of winning or losing to even out over enough games (lots!). What has already happened THIS season does not enter in that equation, though. The Brewers are not "due".

This. Much better way of wording it than mine.

[Patrick425]

Considering the hot starts by Braun and Fielder, Marcum quietly going about his business, and the surprising starts from Wolf and Estrada, I guess it is a bit frustrating that the Brewers do not have more wins at this point. However, I'm still optimistic. With both Hart and Grienke out, my thought was that if they can stay within a few games of first they should be ok. To me, adding Hart and Greinke to the roster now is like making a big trade that improves your team without having to give up anything.

My biggest concern at this point is Gallardo. Hopefully, he'll figure it out and turn it around soon.

[logan82]

To me, adding Hart and Greinke to the roster now is like making a big

trade that improves your team without having to give up anything.

 

My biggest concern at this point is Gallardo. Hopefully, he'll figure it out and turn it around soon.

My biggest concern is Gomez and Kotsay continuing to get playing time over Morgan and Hart and Gomez staying in the 2 hole. There have been somewhat plausible explanations to this point but at some point this has to change. First it was Hart will play and hit #2 as soon as he is back. Now it's well Hart isn't quite ready to play every day and not ready to face MLB pitching yet. When does it end and the right decisions get made?

[Patrick425]

To me, adding Hart and Greinke to the roster now is like making a big trade that improves your team without having to give up anything.

 

My biggest concern at this point is Gallardo. Hopefully, he'll figure it out and turn it around soon.

My biggest concern is Gomez and Kotsay continuing to get playing time over Morgan and Hart and Gomez staying in the 2 hole. There have been somewhat plausible explanations to this point but at some point this has to change. First it was Hart will play and hit #2 as soon as he is back. Now it's well Hart isn't quite ready to play every day and not ready to face MLB pitching yet. When does it end and the right decisions get made?

Morgan has been injured, so not much they can do about that. As far as Hart - because of rain outs, I'm not sure he got the ABs that they wanted him to get in the minors, also he didn't really get a whole lot of ST time in. Not saying that I completely agree with it, but that's my understanding as to why they think he needs to see some more AB's before moving him the the 2 spot in the lineup. I'm confident that he will be there before too long.

[logan82]

I'm not. Kotsay was playing over Morgan when Morgan wasn't hurt. It could be argued Boggs should have played over Almonte or Kotsay and that didn't happen. Trip R hasn't made good lineup decisions all year to this point. We have only had a handful of times when the lineup was decent so far.