Is Gallardo tipping pitches?

[The Truth]

While many of us (including myself) think that Yo has the potential to be an Ace and a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher, it is entirely possible that what he is, is a 3.75- 3.80 ERA #3 pitcher and that is all he'll ever be (which is still a very valuable component to a staff). The last few starts will average out with some stellar starts and he'll be back in that 3.50-4.00 ERA range

[RockCoCougars]

While many of us (including myself) think that Yo has the potential to be an Ace and a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher, it is entirely possible that what he is, is a 3.75- 3.80 ERA #3 pitcher and that is all he'll ever be (which is still a very valuable component to a staff). The last few starts will average out with some stellar starts and he'll be back in that 3.50-4.00 ERA range

I hope that you're right, but I'm concerned about the velocity drop (didn't watch the last game but supposedly the fastball topped at 91) and accompanying reduction in K/9 rate. I'd be less concerned if this was a control issue, but that doesn't seem to be an issue (possibly location, but he's not walking a ton of guys). Opponents are hitting .297 against him, which is almost Suppan-esque.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm concerned about the velocity drop (didn't watch the last game but supposedly the fastball topped at 91)

 

If he's indeed having trouble repeating his release point and/or delivery, I could see a velocity drop accompanying that. I'm not worried... yet http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[dadofandrew]

So, did he tip pitches in the 1st, quit for several innings, and then start again the other day.

 

His issue is control, his pitches are often right down the middle, and guys like Votto destroy them. Velocity is almost the same as last year, but as Macha said, "Home runs are almost always off terrible pitches."

[mothershipconnection]

Agreed that control seems to be his biggest issue right now. He's not so incredibly nasty that he can get away with that, and while it looks like nibbling, it also looks like he doesn't have command of his pitches, which is the more parsimonious explanation.

When you watch middle school kids pitch, it looks like they're trying to get guys to chase pitches, but we know with them it's a result of sucking and not trying to be crafty.

[rluzinski]

While many of us (including myself) think that Yo has the potential to be an Ace and a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher, it is entirely possible that what he is, is a 3.75- 3.80 ERA #3 pitcher and that is all he'll ever be (which is still a very valuable component to a staff).

The preseason ZiPS ERA projection for Gallardo was a 3.49 ERA. That is the 17th best projected ERA for NL pitchers who are projected to go at least 150 inning this year. I think that's more in the excellent #2 territory. I certainyl wouldn't expect the average NL team to have 3 sub 3.8 ERA SP.

Here are the top NL pitchers and their ERA projection:

Lincecum: 2.75

Wainwright: 2.85

J. Johnson: 2.87

Kershaw: 3.02

Cliff Lee: 3.03

Halladay: 3.03

Jimenez: 3.06

Hanson: 3.10

Greinke: 3.23

 

[RyDogg66]

So based upon a comment by Brian Anderson tonight I think Gallardo has given up 26 earned runs in his last 26 innings pitched.

 

He is the weakest link in the rotation?

[RockCoCougars]

So based upon a comment by Brian Anderson tonight I think Gallardo has given up 26 earned runs in his last 26 innings pitched.

 

He is the weakest link in the rotation?

By far. Throw out that Atlanta game, and his ERA is 7.8. That's Suppan-esque... actually worse. He's pitching like a combination of Jim Abbott (Brewers version), Jaimie Navarro (2nd stint) and Cal Eldred (final season as a Brewer). Not sure if he's hurt or what, but something is definitely up here, because outside of a few games he's been brutal since mid-season last year.

[Ranier]

Is there an injury that they haven't found yet is my question?

[crossface21]

I read it somewhere else and I agree. I wouldn't be surprised if on Wednesday when the Brewers activate Grienke, we also see Gallardo take a trip to the DL with some type of ailment, i.e. arm fatigue, sore shoulder, bad haircut, etc. whatever, in an effort to keep Estrada in the rotation-assuming Estrada pitches well Tuesday night-so they can try and figure out what's going on with Gallardo.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers are going to make up an injury so they can take Gallardo out of the rotation in favor of Estrada? Put me in the surprised camp if that happens.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The Brewers are going to make up an injury so they can take Gallardo out of the rotation in favor of Estrada? Put me in the surprised camp if that happens.

I agree. No way it happens. It took the Brewers forever to make that move with a much worse pitcher in Jeff Suppan. There's no way it happens with Gallardo.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers are going to make up an injury so they can take Gallardo out of the rotation in favor of Estrada? Put me in the surprised camp if that happens.

I agree. No way it happens. It took the Brewers forever to make that move with a much worse pitcher in Jeff Suppan. There's no way it happens with Gallardo.

They did it twice with Suppan. I'm not sure it's prudent to keep trotting Gallardo out there, good pitchers don't go long stretches like this without reason, and he's killing the team right now. The opponent has scored less than 5 runs once so far this season in Gallardo starts.

 

Why does it seem that every time this franchise signs a starter to a multi-year deal for big money they either turn to crap or they get hurt? Wolf is bucking that trend a little, hopefully he continues.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers are going to make up an injury so they can take Gallardo out of the rotation in favor of Estrada? Put me in the surprised camp if that happens.

I agree. No way it happens. It took the Brewers forever to make that move with a much worse pitcher in Jeff Suppan. There's no way it happens with Gallardo.

They did it twice with Suppan.

No one suggested that it was unprecedented. But bringing up Suppan is probably better anecdotal evidence for why Yo WON'T be sent down. Suppan was a much worse pitcher and STILL had to perform poorly for a very long time.

good pitchers don't go long stretches like this without reason

Well, of course some do. the real question is how unlikely it is.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Yo was cruising tonight until the 6th. And then the brewer's defense let him down. He walked the first batter in the 6th and then he got Uggla to pop out. Unfortunately Prince couldn't make the catch and Corey was too scared of running into to Prince to make the catch. Then Yo gets Uggla to hit a 32 hopper to SS and Bentacourt showing his range of a barstool let it go into left field. Then Yo got squeezed on a 3-1 pitch. The next one got ripped for a double. After than he gave up a texas leaguer. One ball hit hard all inning 4 runs scored. I don't think there's anything wrong with Yo that wouldn't be fixed with a new defense.

 

That said, I don't think I'm going to be trading for him this year in my fantasy league, becuase we're not geting a new defense. Now next year I'll try and get him cheap when we have a new SS and new 1B that hopefully can field.

 

I also wonder if given the state of our defense you need control guys, because if you walk anyone the potential for a big inning is magnified because we also give extra outs in the field.

 

I will say that it seemed like Yo's breaking stuff was a lot less sharp in the 6th than earlier in the game, so maybe he is tired, hasn't recovered from that complete game earlier in the season, so maybe a trip to the DL to regain some strength and stamina would help. Also a mental break might help too. I said it and my buddy agreed, it looked like Yo was going to cry in the dugout after he got taken out, mainly because our defense would make any pitcher cry.

[RockCoCougars]

Well, of course some do. the real question is how unlikely it is.

 

It's got to be pretty rare. According to my calculations, he has an ERA of 5.82 over his last 27 starts (since July 1 of last year), that's roughly 80% of a full season. The most worrisome thing to me is that this stretch has carried into two seasons.

[danzig6767]

Yo was cruising tonight until the 6th. And then the brewer's defense let him down. He walked the first batter in the 6th and then he got Uggla to pop out. Unfortunately Prince couldn't make the catch and Corey was too scared of running into to Prince to make the catch. Then Yo gets Uggla to hit a 32 hopper to SS and Bentacourt showing his range of a barstool let it go into left field. Then Yo got squeezed on a 3-1 pitch. The next one got ripped for a double. After than he gave up a texas leaguer. One ball hit hard all inning 4 runs scored. I don't think there's anything wrong with Yo that wouldn't be fixed with a new defense.

 

That said, I don't think I'm going to be trading for him this year in my fantasy league, becuase we're not geting a new defense. Now next year I'll try and get him cheap when we have a new SS and new 1B that hopefully can field.

 

I also wonder if given the state of our defense you need control guys, because if you walk anyone the potential for a big inning is magnified because we also give extra outs in the field.

 

I will say that it seemed like Yo's breaking stuff was a lot less sharp in the 6th than earlier in the game, so maybe he is tired, hasn't recovered from that complete game earlier in the season, so maybe a trip to the DL to regain some strength and stamina would help. Also a mental break might help too. I said it and my buddy agreed, it looked like Yo was going to cry in the dugout after he got taken out, mainly because our defense would make any pitcher cry.

Is there a place that tracks all pitches thrown by a pitcher during a season?

 

I ask because to my naked eye and recollection at least, it has seemed to me that over his last 4-5 starts, he's been struggling to have any sort of consistent command of his curveball. When he's not able to throw it for strikes often enough, hitters are able to lay off it more. That's where Gallardo's lack of a third pitch that he can consistently count on hurts him. He can't go to a change or slider if he's not commanding his curve and it can lead him to largely being a one pitch pitcher in those situations.

 

I thought i remembered hearing when Gallardo came up to the majors, it was said that he had very good command of a fastball, curve, and changeup. Well, watching him since he's been a Brewer, at most he'll throw a changeup a few times a game. Pretty much all he ever throws is a fastball and curve. I'm not one who thinks it's a requirement for a starter to have at least three pitches he can turn to so long as a starter has good command of two plus pitches like say Sheets did with his fastball and curve when he was in his prime. It does cause problems though if a starter loses command of his second pitch and thus is stuck mainly having to get outs with just top notch command of his fastball.

[Raw Biz]

Yo was cruising tonight until the 6th. And then the brewer's defense let him down. He walked the first batter in the 6th and then he got Uggla to pop out. Unfortunately Prince couldn't make the catch and Corey was too scared of running into to Prince to make the catch. Then Yo gets Uggla to hit a 32 hopper to SS and Bentacourt showing his range of a barstool let it go into left field. Then Yo got squeezed on a 3-1 pitch. The next one got ripped for a double. After than he gave up a texas leaguer. One ball hit hard all inning 4 runs scored. I don't think there's anything wrong with Yo that wouldn't be fixed with a new defense.

 

I also wonder if given the state of our defense you need control guys, because if you walk anyone the potential for a big inning is magnified because we also give extra outs in the field.

I wouldn't necessarily say he was cruising. He struck out a lot more guys but he still walked two guys before the 6th and then walked two guys in the 6th. You're right that walks potentially lead to big innings, especially 4 pitch walks. I know Prince isn't great defensively but that was still a tough play to make, especially with a sliding Corey Hart coming at him. As for the defense letting him down, they turned two double plays and threw out a runner before that inning to erase a couple of walks and hits. I know their defense isn't great but I don't think you can blame this loss on them. It comes down to Yo once again. He's not throwing first pitch strikes, which leads to more pitches, which leads to walks, which leads to guys being able to wait for their pitch and ultimately hits/runs/loss.

[RightFieldCoder]

Gallardo's just upset that he still doesn't have a bobble head.

[strawbossisevil]

Then Yo gets Uggla to hit a 32 hopper to SS and Bentacourt showing his range of a barstool let it go into left field.

I went back to the tape and watched this play about a dozen times. Betancourt was shaded toward second for the double play and actually got a decent jump on this one. The best we could have hoped for from any shortstop there was for them to knock it down and keep it in the infield, but the result would have been the same as Chipper wasn't going to third in either case.

This is exactly what some of us have been pointing out in the Yuni discussion thread. People are showing absolutely no objectivity in bagging on him. The difference between him and an average SS is maybe a ball or two a week, if that. Yet, so many see his defense costing us runs one or twice every night. It just shows that most have no concept of what average defense at SS looks like.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Ok, does EVERY thread have to be about Betencourt? This is a thread about Gallardo, and here we are arguing about Betencourt again.

 

Funny, I was being accused of repeatedly posting about my hate for Betencourt. At least I kept it in ONE thread about BETENCOURT.

[strawbossisevil]

Ok, does EVERY thread have to be about Betencourt? This is a thread about Gallardo, and here we are arguing about Betencourt again.

 

Funny, I was being accused of repeatedly posting about my hate for Betencourt. At least I kept it in ONE thread about BETENCOURT.

I realize it is a Gallardo thread, but is no one allowed to address what AdvantageSchneider said in his post? He brought up BetAncourt, not I. And I just spent the last 15 minutes watching the play over and over to see if there was any truth to his claim. There wasn't.

This point remains. The single, along with the rest of last night's results are on Gallardo's shoulders.

 

[CheezWizHed]

We now return you to your nationally tele-typed discussion about Gallardo...

 

So what are the odds that a roster move to bring up Greinke will involve Gallardo?

[JohnBriggs12]

We now return you to your nationally tele-typed discussion about Gallardo...

 

So what are the odds that a roster move to bring up Greinke will involve Gallardo?

That's a discussion worth having. Discussing ad nauseum the pluses and minuses of Betancourt is burying the headline. The opening day starter has an ERA of over 6. He's allowed 26 earned runs in 26 1/3 innings over his last 5 starts. He leads the league in hits allowed. He's had the same shortstop as Marcum and Wolf who are among the league leaders in ERA. Can you say Jaime Navarro?

 

If Estrada posts another quality start tonight, I think sending down Gallardo is an option that should be considered.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't see how Gallardo gets sent to the minors - if he's injured in the least they should DL him retroactively from his last start and give him time to heal. If he's 100% healthy he needs to stay in the rotation...he's been bad lately but the Brewers aren't going to contend without him starting every 5 days - Narveson and yes, Estrada could easily start replicating Yo's suckiness. In fact, Narveson has got me worried more than Yo recently.

 

Estrada may earn himself a bullpen spot or Narveson's #5 with another quality start, but no way should he be replacing Yo in the rotation.