Ryan Braun Triple Crown Thread

[The Truth]

But there really isn't any proof of anything right now other then his walk rate which has already started to go down.

What about his HR vs Doubles rate? Still too small of a sample to say for sure but that is a dramatic difference from his career norms. HR vs Doubles wouldn't indicate a change in approach though, more of a strength improvement

[logan82]

100 PA: Contact Rate

150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA

200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB

250 PA: Flyball Rate

300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB

500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate

550 PA: ISO

[/pre]

[JohnBriggs12]

It's still very early, but this is a terrific stretch he's on. Triple crowns are rare because there are usually several outstanding players that have good seasons at the same time. The fact that Pujols has never won one speaks to the difficulty. Injuries may or may not be a factor, but conventional baseball thought is that it's a game of adjustments. Pitchers adjusted to Braun after his incredible rookie season and his 08 through 10 numbers, while good, weren't in the stratosphere. It appears as if Braun has adjusted this time and the pitchers are paying for it.

 

It's certainly questionable whether anyone can win a Triple Crown, but certainly Braun belongs in the discussion of possibilities. He's certainly capable of taking any of the 3 components in a given year.

[endaround]

That can be affected too much by things like weather and venue at this point. Just too hard to say anything.

[dlk9s]

Braun's hair looks a little shaggy this season. Might account for his success so far.

[jjfanec]

There isn't any real proof his approach has changed. His O-swing% is 29.6% vs 31.3%in his career. Now his O-contact% is way up over his career but right where it was last year 71.9% vs 68.1%. So maybe he actually changed last year and his injury masked it. But there really isn't any proof of anything right now other then his wlak rate which has already started to go down.

He has made it clear in interviews his approach has changed. He talked about patience being the thing he has been working on the most. Now maybe that will all change once the season gets rolling but as of right now the results have been pretty solid

[joepepsi]

Braun's hair looks a little shaggy this season. Might account for his success so far.

The shaggy effect increased Johnny Damon's production in terms of OPS, although his stolen base rate decline a bit. That's probably due to increase wind resistance.

 

Hopefully by bringing back the mullet Braun will enjoy the same increase in OPS, but maintain his stolen base rate since the mullet is more aerodynamic than the full Jesus look.

[berniebrewer4life]

Homer, if Braun fails to reach base tonight, i'm coming after you for starting this thread.

 

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

Hopefully by bringing back the mullet Braun will enjoy the same increase

in OPS, but maintain his stolen base rate since the mullet is more

aerodynamic than the full Jesus look.

I think his CS% will go up as well, as the mullet creates more lift, so he won't be able to get under the tag as often.

[joepepsi]

Homer, if Braun fails to reach base tonight, i'm coming after you for starting this thread.

 

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

 

Hopefully by bringing back the mullet Braun will enjoy the same increase

in OPS, but maintain his stolen base rate since the mullet is more

aerodynamic than the full Jesus look.

I think his CS% will go up as well, as the mullet creates more lift, so he won't be able to get under the tag as often.

Good call. Bill James talked about this in his 1988 version of the Historical Abstract. Strangely he edited it out in the 2001 re-release.

[Funketown]

I think his CS% will go up as well, as the mullet creates more lift, so he won't be able to get under the tag as often.

Yes, but it must be hard for a fielder to put down a tag while gazing into his flowing locks. Besides, the mullet never stopped Jaromir Jagr.

 

http://ils.unc.edu/~everj/Mullet/pictures/jaromir.jpg

[Baldkin]

That is not a mullet... that is some Soul Glow

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_XIG98kNoit0/TE2-BCXBocI/AAAAAAAAGU4/iTj7dxcMabU/s1600/sexual-chocolate.jpg

[logan82]

He has made it clear in interviews his approach has changed. He talked about patience being the thing he has been working on the most.

 

You hear guys say that all the time in Spring Training and early in the season. It makes for a nice sound bite but many times nothing comes of it.

[CheezWizHed]

Braun's hair looks a little shaggy this season. Might account for his success so far.

 

I think he has been using Tom Brady's stylist.

[TexasAggieBrewer]

Sorry I don't change my opinions just because a player is on our team, being a realist is some cardinal sin apparently.

No, the "cardinal sin" is always shooting down everything everybody else says by taking the statistically easy way out (as Invader alluded to). Can't guys get excited for their players w/out constantly being told that their ideas are foolish?

 

I know that some posters can get ahead of themselves but it is pretty lame to see how consistently important and accurate some peoples opinions seem to come off as. Remember, "fan" is short for "fanatic". Let guys have some fun once in a while...

Ennder is fine for providing his opinion. It would be one thing if he made the post in a rude/condescending manner, but Ennder was simply making a point. And there is nothing wrong with that.

 

[StearnsFTW]

Sorry I don't change my opinions just because a player is on our team, being a realist is some cardinal sin apparently.

No, the "cardinal sin" is always shooting down everything everybody else says by taking the statistically easy way out (as Invader alluded to). Can't guys get excited for their players w/out constantly being told that their ideas are foolish?

 

I know that some posters can get ahead of themselves but it is pretty lame to see how consistently important and accurate some peoples opinions seem to come off as. Remember, "fan" is short for "fanatic". Let guys have some fun once in a while...

Aren't you the guy that rags on Fielder all the time?

[CheezWizHed]

Can we please keep the thread about Braun and not about each other?

[strawbossisevil]

I think everyone knew that it was unlikely to happen before Ennder ever made his post. The statistics say as much, but this is the part of the season is where the hope for bigger and better are still springing up.

 

We'll see if this season's stats play out according to what has been statistically predicted, or if Braun supercedes the predictions and becomes a triple crown leader. It's not likely, but still fun to be having the discussion.

[Flood Pants]

Just wait until Plush takes over the two-hole. Braun will have 4-5 more RBI chances a day.

And if Rickie would stop hitting homers and just settle for singles like a leadoff hitter should, Braun would be in business.

[Thundercat32]

Like homer said this is a fun thread for now. It is fun to dream about the possibility, but here are some trends we can look at. I was surprised to learn Braun's career BaBip is .337, which makes his .361 BaBip this season seem somewhat reasonable. His walk rate is up to a career high 13.8 so far and the strikeout rate is down to a near career low at 17.3. His swinging strike % is down to 8.1 a career low again so far, his zone % is down to 43, a career low, and his line drive % is up to a staggering 26.8. We can infer from this information Braun is A) swinging and missing less in the strike zone B) letting fewer pitches go by him in the strike zone and C) making solid contact, or you could say hitting the ball and hitting it real hard http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

The .357 Iso is ridiculous and clearly unsustainable. So while he's currently tied for the Home Run lead, it's hardest to believe he'll lead the league in that category. I could see him easily winning the Batting title, and possibly finish as the RBI leader. All of that said he's only 27 yrs old and just entering his prime. I wouldn't rule anything out for him.

 

Also, HiAndTight a 10% walk rate is well above the league average for the last several years, so saying if he could "even" manage a 10% walk rate isn't maybe the best phrasing. Braun's last 2 seasons at 8.1 and 8.2 are definitely respectable especially considering he's lowered his strikeout rate to 19.1 and 17.0

 

Lastly I have Braun on 2 of my fantasy teams (fell to me at the 12th pick both times, so sweet!) so lets go Braun-ie!!!

[homer]

Quick update:

 

Braun's current stat line (NL rank in parentheses);

 

BA .309 (16)

RBI 33 (3)

HR 12 (1)

 

So he has some work to do http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

In all seriousness though, he has a chance to put together a 30/30 year (30 dingers, 30 stolen bases). I think the 30 home runs is almost a foregone conclusion. He's on pace for 29 stolen bases right now. With RR's propensity to run I wouldn't be shocked if he did it.

[rluzinski]

3/31-4/25: .378/.475/.707/1.182

4/26-5/15: .224/.297/.463/.760

 

2011: .309/.399/.597/.996

 

He's still crushing his preseason projection .

[homer]

Update after recent surge:

 

.321 (2nd in NL. Reyes is hitting .353)

65 RBI (5th - 75 for Howard)

20 HR (T for 7th. Berkman has 27)

 

He may not lead in any of these categories when its all said and done but with the 19 stolen bases already he's going to put up one heck of a season. MVP candidate type season.

[jjfanec]

Update after recent surge:

 

.321 (2nd in NL. Reyes is hitting .353)

65 RBI (5th - 75 for Howard)

20 HR (T for 7th. Berkman has 27)

 

He may not lead in any of these categories when its all said and done but with the 19 stolen bases already he's going to put up one heck of a season. MVP candidate type season.

He has passed Prince as the Brewer most likely to win MVP. His stolen bases will probably not rise much more with the lingering injury but his numbers are really solid this year.

[The Truth]

Would like to see his OPS over 1.000 and his OBP well over .400 as I am hopeful that he will be someday be looked at as one of the all-time greats. I order to do that he needs to have several seasons with an OPS over 1.000 and he only has one so far in his career. Would also like to see him have over 40 HR's in a season but that is very unlikely this year

[jjfanec]

Would like to see his OPS over 1.000 and his OBP well over .400 as I am hopeful that he will be someday be looked at as one of the all-time greats. I order to do that he needs to have several seasons with an OPS over 1.000 and he only has one so far in his career. Would also like to see him have over 40 HR's in a season but that is very unlikely this year

There is only one guy in baseball with an OPS over 1.000 this year. Braun has the 4th highest OPS in baseball right now. 40 HR does seem out of the question