Ryan Braun Triple Crown Thread

[homer]

Too early to get one started? No!

 

As of April 25:

 

Braun currently has eight homers, 20 RBI and is batting .378. He's

currently fourth in the National League in hitting, first in homers,

second in RBI

 

( and first in runs scored. He's also second in slugging at

.707 and third in walks with 16.)

[HiAndTight]

Too early to get one started? No!

 

As of April 25:

 

Braun currently has eight homers, 20 RBI and is batting .378. He's

currently fourth in the National League in hitting, first in homers,

second in RBI

 

( and first in runs scored. He's also second in slugging at

.707 and third in walks with 16.)

That one is of particular interest to me. He's always been great and had great starts, but if he can continue to walk even 10 pct of the time, not the over 17 pct he's currently at even, but just 10, there's just nothing not love about his offense.

[Pointer1VB]

So do we cheer for Fielder to get fewer RBIs?

[owbc]

Braun just needs to keep hitting HRs, that will keep Fielder's RBI total down.

[CheezWizHed]

So do we cheer for Fielder to get fewer RBIs?

 

Nope. As long as Braun hits 3rd and Fielder 4th, Fielder getting RBIs has no effect on Braun. Braun's RBIs, however heavily effect Fielder's chances.

 

3 questions:

1) At the end of the season, which of the 3 (BA, HR, RBI) is Braun most likely to be the leader (if only one)? I'd say BA.

2) Which is going to be the hardest for him? I'd say HR.

3) When will the Triple Crown switch to OBP instead of BA?

[Ennder]

My guess is at the end of the year he isn't tops in any of the 3 categories.

[dlk9s]

My guess is at the end of the year he isn't tops in any of the 3 categories.

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/4709/rachelgp6.jpg

[GormanHarvey]

That seriously made me crack up dlk9s

[djoctagone]

maybe not this year, but consider braun's chances if albert pujols signs with an american league team . . .

 

and while nothing is on the radar, it is possible that mlb could expand again, which would dilute every team's pitching via the expansion draft. offensive studs like braun could really go to town on weakened pitching staffs.

[Hammer]

My guess is at the end of the year he isn't tops in any of the 3 categories.

I've heard of glass half-full and glass half-empty but sometimes I think that some of the "realists" have no glass at all.

 

Honestly, with Weeks and dare I say Gomez/Hart in front of him he will get all of the RBI chances he needs to lead the league.

[Ennder]

Gomez hitting in front of Braun limits his RBI chances and Hart isn't exactly a great guy for RBI chances either since he is more power than OBP. Someone is likely to hit 40 HR and odds are it isn't Braun since while he has a ton of power he is still more line drive oriented. AVG is the one he's probably most likely to lead in.

 

Sorry I don't change my opinions just because a player is on our team, being a realist is some cardinal sin apparently.

[Invader3K]

The thing is, it's statistically easier to predict he won't lead any category than that he will. That's just the reality.

[Hammer]

Sorry I don't change my opinions just because a player is on our team, being a realist is some cardinal sin apparently.

No, the "cardinal sin" is always shooting down everything everybody else says by taking the statistically easy way out (as Invader alluded to). Can't guys get excited for their players w/out constantly being told that their ideas are foolish?

 

I know that some posters can get ahead of themselves but it is pretty lame to see how consistently important and accurate some peoples opinions seem to come off as. Remember, "fan" is short for "fanatic". Let guys have some fun once in a while...

[JohnBriggs12]

Gomez hitting in front of Braun limits his RBI chances and Hart isn't exactly a great guy for RBI chances either since he is more power than OBP. Someone is likely to hit 40 HR and odds are it isn't Braun since while he has a ton of power he is still more line drive oriented. AVG is the one he's probably most likely to lead in.

 

Sorry I don't change my opinions just because a player is on our team, being a realist is some cardinal sin apparently.

I totally disagree. Braun's 2007 RBI totals pro rated over 162 games was 139 which would have led the league. His prorated HR total that year would have been 49, second by one to Fielder's 50. That was batting behind Weeks and Hardy who had a modest .322 OBP. Hardy you may recall, couldn't run at all, and was no sure thing to score from second on a single. He also had a hard time scoring from first on a double. Gomez on the other hand has the ability to get in scoring position at will any time he's on, including via fielder's choices, will almost always score from second on singles and from first on doubles. Same goes with Morgan who figures to hit second too on days he's in CF. I still think they'll bat Hart 6th.

 

If Braun continues to keep his strikeout rate low, he's going to get more cheap RBI too.

[joepepsi]

My guess is at the end of the year he isn't tops in any of the 3 categories.

You could say this about any player, no matter their skill level, and be right at least 98% of the time.

[strawbossisevil]

Arguing that he won't have enough RBIs because of Gomez is making an assumption...an assumption that Mr. Corey Hart won't be batting in the #2 spot as soon as this week. I don't know how you could possibly state that he won't be placed in the #2 spot with so much certainty, Ennder.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The offseason weightlifting seems to have really helped his power numbers. He's bigger and stronger than last year which should reverse the steady power decline since his rookie season. The walks are really encouraging too...I've always felt he's just a notch on plate discipline below a HoF career...he may have entered that next level. He is one special hitter.

 

My guess is he's top 5-10 in all categories, but I would agree he's unlikely to top any single category. Those batting stats still put him in the MVP race...and of course will win him a Gold Glove (heehee).

[Funketown]

My guess is at the end of the year he isn't tops in any of the 3 categories.

You're like that kid who tells everyone else the tooth fairy isn't real.

 

Heck, I don't think there's anyone on here that would bet on Braun winning the Triple Crown. I'd probably have to be given 500 to 1 odds to put in a bet on it. That doesn't mean it's not worth talking about on an internet message board.

[hurricanecrush]

You're like that kid who tells everyone else the tooth fairy isn't real.

Wait... what?

[CheezWizHed]

You're like that kid who tells everyone else the tooth fairy isn't real.

 

That's more of an unwritten rule...

[Richie]

So do we cheer for Fielder to get fewer RBIs?

No, we just trade him to the American League.

[homer]

Sorry I don't change my opinions just because a player is on our team, being a realist is some cardinal sin apparently.

I think it's patently obvious that the odds of Braun winning the Triple Crown are slim to minimal to miniscule. This is a fun thread - not a serious one........for now http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[rluzinski]

Gomez on the other hand has the ability to get in scoring position at will any time he's on, including via fielder's choices, will almost always score from second on singles and from first on doubles.

 

If you took the time to use reasonable numbers to test your theory, I think you would come to the conclusion that Gomez can only hurt Braun's RBI's numbers. There is little Gomez can do on the base paths that can overcome his bad OBP. Assuming everything else equal, a guy getting on base 4% more often in front of Braun is going to have a more positive effect on Braun's RBI's than Gomez being able to take an extra base.

[The Truth]

I love statistical analysis and I would be extremely disappointed if the posters here who lean heavily on it here would be discouraged from doing so. The understanding of stats and how they relate to advanced baseball knowledge is why I think Brewerfan.net sets itself apart from your average every day baseball forum.

 

There are a couple of things though, human elements, that stats can't account for, in particular that might relate to Ryan Braun version 2011: number one is that he may have been playing through injuries the last few years and that his actual ability might lean more heavily towards his rookie year numbers, that is if he can stay healthy (a big "if" for any player)

 

The other thing that stats can't account for is when a player improves in a given year, that is where scouting comes in. It would appear that Ryan Braun has stepped up his game another level this season. Is he simply on a "hot streak"? Or has his increased strength, better overall health, and improved approach at the plate helped him elevate his game?

 

Even though it's only been 22 games, I think that if you study Braun's 2011 numbers 2 things jump right out:

 

#1 - his doubles totals are way down. I think that is because with his added strength he's hitting HR's on balls that went off the wall for a double in the last few years

 

#2 - his walk totals are way up. I think that is due to his improved approach at the plate. Not sure how more walks would improve his Triple Crown chances but it certainly increases his overall value

[endaround]

There isn't any real proof his approach has changed. His O-swing% is 29.6% vs 31.3%in his career. Now his O-contact% is way up over his career but right where it was last year 71.9% vs 68.1%. So maybe he actually changed last year and his injury masked it. But there really isn't any proof of anything right now other then his wlak rate which has already started to go down.