Better hitter: Braun vs Fielder

[Ennder]

If a player got a BB every single time they got up to bat they would be the best hitter in baseball. I don't care if they never actually hit the ball, walks are part of hitting.

[CheezWizHed]

I don't care if they never actually hit the ball, walks are part of hitting.

 

Yeah, I can't believe this broke down to nit-picking. Best offensive player, best batter, whatever. Its all included. Knowing when to swing the bat, when not to, and what happens when you do...

[mkm13]

I feel like some people would view these 2 lines being equally good:

 

Player 1 .320 BA, .360 OBP

Player 2 .250 BA, .360 OBP

 

The 2 players have the same amount of power, just that the higher BA comes from strictly singles.

 

I think player 1 is a quite a bit better, even if the 0.070 higher batting average was all from extra singles. A single with a guy on 2nd and 3rd is often times worth 2 runs. A walk with a guy on 2nd and 3rd is just going to get you the bases loaded, hoping the next guy can hit them in.

 

I think being able to hit for a higher average is undervalued by some on this board. I understand that often times a walk is no different than a single, but I think in general a guy with a high average and not as much patience is undervalued by some people here. I am not saying being patient and drawing walks is not very important...it is very important...just that in my opinion some people dismiss BA completely and just look at OBP.

[rluzinski]

I feel like some people would view these 2 lines being equally good:

 

Player 1 .320 BA, .360 OBP

Player 2 .250 BA, .360 OBP

 

The 2 players have the same amount of power, just that the higher BA comes from strictly singles.

 

I think player 1 is a quite a bit better, even if the 0.070 higher batting average was all from extra singles. A single with a guy on 2nd and 3rd is often times worth 2 runs. A walk with a guy on 2nd and 3rd is just going to get you the bases loaded, hoping the next guy can hit them in.

 

I think being able to hit for a higher average is undervalued by some on this board. I understand that often times a walk is no different than a single, but I think in general a guy with a high average and not as much patience is undervalued by some people here. I am not saying being patient and drawing walks is not very important...it is very important...just that in my opinion some people dismiss BA completely and just look at OBP.

Presuming equal slugging, the batter with the higher average will have more singles and the batter with the lower BA will have more extra base hits. This stuff has been studied and in the current run environment, it's basically a wash in terms of run production. Basically, the value of BA is already captured in OBP and SLG since it increases both.

You can look up the average run value of each batting event. wOBA basically uses those values. You can even find find the average run value of each batting event depending on who's on base and the number of outs:

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html

Nothing is ever completely "settled" but this stuff has been studied to death. Anyone who is familiar with this stuff is probably not undervaluing BA.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

The only time I see an OBP based more on hits than walks being beneficial is the two out, man in scoring position scenario. That would be the one time a base hit is better than a walk. While that scenario does happen the amount of base hits in that position compared to any other outcome is so small that it really is negligible. All that said driving in men on base with two outs was an issue for this team in the past so perhaps it has more weight for this particular team. It will take a smarter person (Rluz probably has it stored in his computer like brain somewhere)http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif than I to know if it matters but I can only see this particular situation on this particular team having any effect at all if there is.

[endaround]

No in general hits are better than walks because walks never move a player more than one base (ie you can't go from 1B to 3B on a walk). A walk is about worth 2/3rd of a hit if I remember right. That said all that is captured in SLG.

[umphrey]

I prefer Braun because he is less streaky and he can cover the entire plate the best. Fielder can be neutralized too easily by a LHP throwing sliders on the outside corners. He doesn't go with pitches on the corners, he waits for mistakes. Braun does both.

 

Statistics get relied on too much in baseball. The way the game is, you can use them more than just about any sport. They are still just an analysis tool though and not the be all, end all evaluator. For example, Corey Hart batting 2nd and Casey McGehee batting 5th around Braun and Fielder wouldn't put up half as good of stats as if they were relied on as the meat of the order. Corey gets a lot of fast balls there and McGehee gets runners on base. You have to adjust for lots of things like that and use your eyes and common sense in tandem with the stats and sabermetrics, which are excellent and tell a lot of the story, but not everything.

[mkm13]

Presuming equal slugging, the batter with the higher average will have more singles and the batter with the lower BA will have more extra base hits. This stuff has been studied and in the current run environment, it's basically a wash in terms of run production. Basically, the value of BA is already captured in OBP and SLG since it increases both.

You can look up the average run value of each batting event. wOBA basically uses those values. You can even find find the average run value of each batting event depending on who's on base and the number of outs:

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html

Nothing is ever completely "settled" but this stuff has been studied to death. Anyone who is familiar with this stuff is probably not undervaluing BA.

 

You don't need to tell me how the stats work. I understand it. In the example I gave, player 1 would have had higher slugging because of the singles instead of walks. I simply stated that some people overvalue a walk. In this very thread you said that Fielder was way more valuable, and it was not even close. I have no clue how someone can come to that conclusion unless they overvalue walks. Because their OPS and wOBA are very close to the same over their career. I am not saying it is not very important, just that some people seem to overvalue it...or they are overstating things to try to prove a point?

[rluzinski]

Yes, an average hit is worth about half a run while an average walk is worth 1/3rd a run. I believe the largest gap between their worth is with men on 2nd and 3rd with two out, where a single is worth around 1.5 runs vs. 25 runs for a walk.

 

I prefer Braun because he is less streaky....

 

As a fan, I can see preferring the more consistent producer but that doesn't really make him more valuable as far as I can see (at least from game to game). I don't think more consistent run production from a single player in the lineup would really translate into more wins for a team, and that's all that really matters when we are measuring the value of a hitter.

 

Statistics get relied on too much in baseball. The way the game is, you can use them more than just about any sport. They are still just an analysis tool though and not the be all, end all evaluator. For example, Corey Hart batting 2nd and Casey McGehee batting 5th around Braun and Fielder wouldn't put up half as good of stats as if they were relied on as the meat of the order. Corey gets a lot of fast balls there and McGehee gets runners on base. You have to adjust for lots of things like that and use your eyes and common sense in tandem with the stats and sabermetrics, which are excellent and tell a lot of the story, but not everything.

 

I would counter that opinion without evidence is relied on too much in baseball. I agree that statistics is not the end all be all of player evaluation. Scouting information provides a mountain of data that raw statistics can't. Teams need both.

 

That said, your example of why stats can't be relied on exclusively is a terrible one, IMO. If you want to formulate a compelling argument, you have carefully define your theory and then back that theory up with evidence. That evidence should be measurable and as objective as possible. In baseball, that evidence is often in the form of a record of events from previous games. It could also be a record of direct observation (professional scouting).

 

In your example, it isn't clear what your theory is (McGee batting 2nd and Hart 5th would result in both performing much worse?) and you provide no evidence to back it up. Corey get's a lot of fastballs batting 2nd? Do you have evidence of that? How many fastballs? Does that improve his performance? By how much? McGehee gets runners on base? I'm not sure what that even means. Do you mean that he's an "RBI guy"? What are the qualities of an RBI guy and goes McGehee really possess them? Most importantly, if any of that is true, why can't you use a record of past games as evidence to support your theory?

[logan82]

In this very thread you said that Fielder was way more valuable, and it was not even close.

 

I think that was because their SLG was close to even and Fielder had a higher OBP.

[The Truth]

OPS is not a very good stat, as it weights OBP equal to SLG. 1.7*OBP + SLG is much better (and is basically wOBA).

Interesting. While I'm not (yet) fully on board in agreeing with you, one compelling argument that might lean in your favor is that in the All-Time OPS rankings Ty Cobb ranks only 25th. Most experts opinions whether based on anecdotal evidence or not would say that Cobb was a much better hitter than merely the 25th best in history, and certainly a better hitter than the likes of Jim Thome & Frank Thomas who are ahead of him on the All-Time OPS rankings

 

Cobb is 9th All-Time in OBP

[HiAndTight]

OPS is not a very good stat, as it weights OBP equal to SLG. 1.7*OBP + SLG is much better (and is basically wOBA).

Interesting. While I'm not (yet) fully on board in agreeing with you, one compelling argument that might lean in your favor is that in the All-Time OPS rankings Ty Cobb ranks only 25th. Most experts opinions whether based on anecdotal evidence or not would say that Cobb was a much better hitter than merely the 25th best in history, and certainly a better hitter than the likes of Jim Thome & Frank Thomas who are ahead of him on the All-Time OPS rankings

 

Cobb is 9th All-Time in OBP

Right, but in that case OPS+ would be a far better indicator in comparing players in their own era's. Cobb ranks 10th all time there, and an argument can be made that almost every hitter above him was a better hitter. Ruth, Bonds, Williams, Mantle, Pujols, Gehrig, Honrsby, Shoeless Joe, and then Dan Brouthers who was done by 1896.

 

But if you're comparing two guys who are playing at the same time, and who are both power hitters, not sure what stat you're going to find, what single stat will be a better indicator.

 

Frank Thomas, while not Ty Cobb WAS an incredible hitter though...

[umphrey]

In your example, it isn't clear what your theory is (McGee batting 2nd and Hart 5th would result in both performing much worse?) and you provide no evidence to back it up. Corey get's a lot of fastballs batting 2nd? Do you have evidence of that? How many fastballs? Does that improve his performance? By how much? McGehee gets runners on base? I'm not sure what that even means. Do you mean that he's an "RBI guy"? What are the qualities of an RBI guy and goes McGehee really possess them? Most importantly, if any of that is true, why can't you use a record of past games as evidence to support your theory?

I'm not pushing an argument for Hart/McGehee, just pushing the arguement that different players get different approaches from pitchers and responding to some of the comments that > wOBA = better hitter. Prince sees a lot of LHP specialists because he is a less complete hitter and is easier neutralized by micro managing. It's a quality that is definitely beneficial because managers go crazy and wear out their bullpen trying to play matchups against him. However, I like Braun better because he is better at hitting any pitch from any pitcher. I have more confidence in him in a late inning situation to take the lead than Fielder because Fielder is more likely to wave at sliders and strike out if the other team needs an out and wants to play the matchup game. However, he does fine when the starting pitcher is going through the majority of the game. Both great hitters, but Prince is easier to take out of the game if you want to.

[rluzinski]

Presuming equal slugging, the batter with the higher average will have more singles and the batter with the lower BA will have more extra base hits. This stuff has been studied and in the current run environment, it's basically a wash in terms of run production. Basically, the value of BA is already captured in OBP and SLG since it increases both.

You can look up the average run value of each batting event. wOBA basically uses those values. You can even find find the average run value of each batting event depending on who's on base and the number of outs:

http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html

Nothing is ever completely "settled" but this stuff has been studied to death. Anyone who is familiar with this stuff is probably not undervaluing BA.

 

You don't need to tell me how the stats work. I understand it. In the example I gave, player 1 would have had higher slugging because of the singles instead of walks. I simply stated that some people overvalue a walk. In this very thread you said that Fielder was way more valuable, and it was not even close. I have no clue how someone can come to that conclusion unless they overvalue walks. Because their OPS and wOBA are very close to the same over their career. I am not saying it is not very important, just that some people seem to overvalue it...or they are overstating things to try to prove a point?

I called them "note even close" (a claim I have since retracted as I don't wish to argue semantics) because they have the same projected SLG but Prince's projected OBP is around 40 points higher. That prompted you to suggest that some might prefer a player with the lower BA AND SLG because they prefer walks? No one is going to think a walk has more value than a single, so you will have to excuse me for assuming you were keeping SLG constant.