Better hitter: Braun vs Fielder

[greeg35]

an interesting poll in the JS today. Who is a better hitter Braun or Fielder?

So far an overwhelming 89% of respondents say Braun.

I'm not surprised that more people thing Braun is better based on his historical popularity in Milwaukee and the recent contract; but I'm suprised the gap is as big as it is in the polling. Its fun to compare these two because they are pretty much equal in other important ways: both not great on D, neither plays a premium defensive position, about the same age, both have good injury histories. And also because of their differences: lefty/righty, athletic and thin vs strangely athletic and "hefty", etc... Lets ignore the fact that Braun is more of a base stealing threat for this argument.

I'm definitely a Fielder guy. Most of the difference for me is that Fielder has traditionally been more patient at the plate than Braun has. Braun has definitely closed the gap in recent years and will continue to/may surpass fielder if he continues doing what he's doing EARLY this year; but he's not there yet.

What do you say?

[Ennder]

It is a hard thing to judge because Fielder has been all over the place but Braun is so steadily good. I think Braun will have a better overall career most likely but if I had to just rate overall what they have done so far I'd give the edge to Fielder.

[Dragonbait]

I just dont see Fielder ever being a consisten .300 hitter... and to me that makes Braun the better hitter...

 

Fielder just seems too pull happy all the time.

[rluzinski]

Yes, fans will always LIKE the high BA free swinger more than the patient walker. Both project to have about the same SLG with Fielder projected to have a 40+ point OBP edge on Braun. I hope I don't have to explain why that makes a huge difference.

 

In terms of who's worth more overall runs to their offense, it's not even close. Fielder is clearly the more valuable hitter right now. Braun might be more fun to watch but that does not correlate to "better".

[PrinceEatMeat]

Fielder can definitely be a streaky hitter. Even when it comes to full seasons. Braun has been pretty consistent. Fielder is definitely more patient, but Braun is getting better. I think Braun if definitely a for sure .300 hitter, and Fielder has the potential but probably won't hit .300 a lot in his career. Fielder has more power, and will probably hit more home runs for the most part. Both hitters use all fields, which is good, but as was said before Fielder definitely does tend to pull a lot of balls in certain stretches. I think they both have their strengths and weaknesses at the plate. I think Braun will develop into a better hitter for sure, but Fielder may have a slight edge now. In previous years, Fielder was better. In future years, Braun will be better. Right now, I'd say Fielder is a slightly better hitter, but it's definitely close.

[mkm13]

In terms of who's worth more overall runs to their offense, it's not even close.

Come on, really? Why exaggerate? How can it not be close? If you are talking offense you have to also include base running, which Braun has a leg up on Fielder. I think in terms of overall offense, they are pretty close to the same. I would personally give the small edge to Braun.

[strawbossisevil]

Yes, fans will always LIKE the high BA free swinger more than the patient walker. Both project to have about the same SLG with Fielder projected to have a 40+ point OBP edge on Braun. I hope I don't have to explain why that makes a huge difference.

 

In terms of who's worth more overall runs to their offense, it's not even close. Fielder is clearly the more valuable hitter right now. Braun might be more fun to watch but that does not correlate to "better".

The question is "who is the better hitter", not who is the better "walker".

I think Fielder has been the better hitter, but I think Braun will be the better hitter going forward.

[pitchleague]

I guess it depends on how you interpret the question. Better HITTER or better BATTER?

 

To me, someone who walks a lot along with getting a good batting average and slugging percentage is a good BATTER. Taking walks means you have a good eye for pitches one can hit, a very good trait for any BATTER.

 

A good HITTER is determined just by looking at what they do when they actually make contact (i.e. HIT the ball.)

 

So, for me, Braun is the better HITTER when contact is made with the ball and hit into fair territory. Fielder is the better BATTER because he draws walks better.

[logan82]

I always think of hitter as being everything a player does at the plate. Looking it up, Braun has a better wOBA. .398 for his career to Fielder's .389. Probably has something to do with Fielder having a slow start to his career.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

They both have similar Line Drive vs Ground Ball percentages and their ISO's are very simlar as well. The 18 point OBP advantage that Prince has in his career vs Braun's career stats seems to give Prince the slight edge. Braun has a 22 point advantage on slugging percentage, but as we were taught by the brainiacs on this site OBP is more important that SLG.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

I always think of hitter as being everything a player does at the plate. Looking it up, Braun has a better wOBA. .398 for his career to Fielder's .389. Probably has something to do with Fielder having a slow start to his career.

 

 

What site are you looking at for stats? According to fangraphs, Prince has a higher career OBP.

[The Truth]

Fielder is great every other year. Braun is great every year. Fielder even in his off years puts up All-Star caliber OBP and OPS. I think it is somewhat of a toss-up right now, though I think Braun will put up better career numbers for longer than Fielder.

[rluzinski]

In terms of who's worth more overall runs to their offense, it's not even close.

Come on, really? Why exaggerate? How can it not be close? If you are talking offense you have to also include base running, which Braun has a leg up on Fielder. I think in terms of overall offense, they are pretty close to the same. I would personally give the small edge to Braun.

I'm talking about everything the player does as a batter. And yes, that includes not making outs. If making less outs as a batter is not included in the discussion of who is the "better hitter" than this whole discussion unravels, IMO. It means that if a hitter swings at every pitch when he has three balls, he'll never walk but will be the "better hitter" if he can get even one single.

I believe that Fielder is clearly the more VALUABLE hitter to his team right now because his OBP projects to be around 40 points higher than Braun's with about the same SLG. Here are their "rest of season" ZiPS projections for 2011:

Fielder .282 / .403 / .535 / .938

Braun .301 / .366 / .541 / .907

I should not have said "it's not even close" if only because it invites a semantical argument but the above difference is significant. And even if you remove ALL of Fielder's projected IBB (which wouldn't be fair and we can get into why if anyone is interested), he still has about a 15 point OBP advantage over Braun.

But if you can be the better hitter white having less value to your team, I'm answering the wrong question.

[gregmag]

If Braun's improvement in plate discipline so far this year holds up, then I think the argument shifts in a big way. Obviously it's a small sample, although Braun's comments suggest it reflects a change in approach. Russ is right about the value of Fielder's walks, but if Braun can cut into that as he has in the early part of this season, his ability to hit for a higher average gives him a real chance to be better than Fielder this year.

[mkm13]

I'm talking about everything the player does as a batter. And yes, that includes not making outs. If making less outs as a batter is not included in the discussion of who is the "better hitter" than this whole discussion unravels, IMO. It means that if a hitter swings at every pitch when he has three balls, he'll never walk but will be the "better hitter" if he can get even one single.

I believe that Fielder is clearly the more VALUABLE hitter to his team right now because his OBP projects to be around 40 points higher than Braun's with about the same SLG. Here are their "rest of season" ZiPS projections for 2011:

Fielder .282 / .403 / .535 / .938

Braun .301 / .366 / .541 / .907

I should not have said "it's not even close" if only because it invites a semantical argument but the above difference is significant. And even if you remove ALL of Fielder's projected IBB (which wouldn't be fair and we can get into why if anyone is interested), he still has about a 15 point OBP advantage over Braun.

But if you can be the better hitter white having less value to your team, I'm answering the wrong question.

 

I was responding to you saying "offense" and "not even close". I won't argue that Fielder might be slightly better at HITTING. You used the word offense which to me also includes base running. Braun is not a great base runner, but he is better than Fielder, who is well below average.

 

In terms of hitting it is still close. I could believe a good argument on either side..but none that say it is not even close. I never said not making outs is not important, it is. I think pitchers try to pitch around Fielder more than they do Braun because Fielder follows Braun. So Braun might see some better pitches over the course of a year where Fielder might naturally draw more walks because of the situation he is in. I am not saying Braun is as patient as Fielder, because he is not and it is not even close, just pointing out the gap is probably a little wider than it would be otherwise in terms of walks. When the stats are as close as they are overall in terms of OPS, and they are not put in the same situation, I do not think it is as clear and one sided as you make it out to be.

[GoudaBrew]

Note: No sarcasm intended here:

 

Why don't we just look at wOBA and be done with it? Isn't wOBA thought of as the rate statistic du jour to evaluate a hitter?

 

Braun owns a career .398 wOBA and Prince a career .389 wOBA. I'd call that a near wash. If we remove this years small sample of stats (since they are both off to unsustainable starts) and Prince's rookie season and just look at 2007-2010 (i.e. when they were both in the big leagues) Braun has a .394 wOBA and Prince a 0.397 wOBA.

[sveumrules]

wOBA includes SB/CS so if you're talking about the most valuable player offensively it definitely makes sense but if you're talking about who is a better pure hitter (therefore removing baserunning from the equation) I guess some combination of the three old fashioned rate stats should work fine.

[rluzinski]

You could take it a step farther and look at 2007 - 2010 but weigh the more recent seasons more. That get's you even closer to a true projection. Of course, you could simply just use one of the many publicly available projection systems. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

I already gave Fielder and Braun's "rest of season" ZiPS projections for 2011. That's an updated projection that does give a bit of weight to this season's production (as it should). I gave their slash stats but here's the projected wOBA as well:

 

Fielder: .403 wOBA

Braun: .396 wOBA

 

Those projected IBB for Fielder are only worth about 2/3rds that of an unintentional walk, since wOBA weights batting events by their run value. That makes it closer but Fielder is still the king for now. It will be interesting to see if Braun can flip that around for 2012.

EDIT: Looks like wOBA actually weights an IBB proportional to the player's overall wOBA. Check out the comments here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a-visual-look-at-woba/

[The Truth]

Projections don't weigh as heavily for me as results, because projections can be skewed when a hitter changes their approach, as seems to be the case with Braun 1/8 of the way through this season. As gragmag1 said, if Braun's approach continues, and he takes his walks, I see him as more valuable overall (taking into account fielding and baserunning) and as a better hitter

[rluzinski]

Projections don't weigh as heavily for me as results, because projections can be skewed when a hitter changes their approach, as seems to be the case with Braun 1/8 of the way through this season. As gragmag1 said, if Braun's approach continues, and he takes his walks, I see him as more valuable overall (taking into account fielding and baserunning) and as a better hitter

People come up with all kinds of explanations for why production from a player changes in the short term. That's always after the fact, though. It's always, "Hey this guy has done well in 60 PA, I think it's because of a change in approach. Yeh, the batter agrees that is why." We will hear about a dozen or more adjustments by Brewer batters before the season is over. I doubt you will ever improve your projections of players by considering that kind of thing. A batter can't go 10 AB without supposedly changing something.

But yes, if Braun keeps doing better, I agree that he will be better. If he doesn't or Fielder gets better, Fielder will be better. What did Braun say he changed, anyway?

 

[The Truth]

Braun has talked about being more patient this year and taking his walks. Its only been 21 games, but his walks are already at 16 where his previous season high was 57. Do I think he will keep up his .479 OBP all year? No, but if he continues this approach, somewhere in the .410-.420 range is entirely possible

[The Truth]

The every other year greatness for Fielder is somewhat bizarre and something I wonder about often. Glad this year lines up to be a great one http://www.baseball-refer...layers/f/fieldpr01.shtml

 

I look at OPS as a more telling stat than OBP

[The Truth]

Braun's career OPS is at .927, Fielder's is at .923

[rluzinski]

OPS is not a very good stat, as it weights OBP equal to SLG. 1.7*OBP + SLG is much better (and is basically wOBA).

 

BY FAR the most likely explanation for Fielder's every other year thing is luck. It's like flipping a coin 4 times and wondering why it went heads/tails/heads/tails.

 

All we heard about with regard to Gomez is that he had a new approach and it would lead to better performance. His spring training was evidence that it was already working. Had he gotten off to a good start in 40 AB, that would have "proved" that his new approach was continuing to do so. Perhaps Braun has fundamentally changed his approach and it will result in a dramatic change in his walk rate but we have these kinds of discussions every April. My best guess for his walk rate going forward would be whatever an updated projection says it will be.

[HiAndTight]

Yes, fans will always LIKE the high BA free swinger more than the patient walker. Both project to have about the same SLG with Fielder projected to have a 40+ point OBP edge on Braun. I hope I don't have to explain why that makes a huge difference.

 

In terms of who's worth more overall runs to their offense, it's not even close. Fielder is clearly the more valuable hitter right now. Braun might be more fun to watch but that does not correlate to "better".

The question is "who is the better hitter", not who is the better "walker".

I think Fielder has been the better hitter, but I think Braun will be the better hitter going forward.

I've actually heard that argument when talking about this. Citing Prince being more valuable because of his OBP, etc...and hearing that the question is who is a better "hitter."

 

So...lets go with "offensive player.'' Braun's really erasing the only thing Prince had on him until now, his great OBP. Braun's walking like Forest Gump right now and that changes the entire conversation.

 

 

With that said, I'll go with Prince as Braun's done it for less than 100 AB's, but if he can even come close to keeping this up, it's definitely going to become Braun.