Where does Braun's deal leave Greinke and Marcum?

[paul253]

I don't know if this has been talked about in the Braun extension thread, but I thought it deserved a thread of it's own. With all this money going to Ryan Braun, what does this mean for the futures of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum? I think it is absolutely ESSENTIAL that the Brewers sign one of them to a long term deal. I don't know if they have enough money to sign them both and Marcum is probably a lot more realistic and cheaper. He's pitching really well right now. I'd strongly consider offering him an extension of 4/60 right now. While they do have a lot of pitching prospects coming up not a lot of them, if any, appear to be top of the rotation starters. If you can keep Gallardo and Marcum around for a while, that will give the team time to draft and develop top of the rotation prospects. Even then if Greinke walks, you have two pitchers capable of being top of the rotation starters and then you can hope that guys like Rogers, Peralta, Scarpetta, Rivas, and Heckathorn can fill out the rotation.

 

After this season, Fielder walks which sheds a big chunk of money. Hawkins is probably gone and Bentancourt may be gone too. Ideally, you can trade Wolf and replace him with Rivas or Peralta, saving more money. The Brewers need to stop spending money on relievers. They can build the bullpen around guys like Parra, Loe, Braddock and Axford and hope other guys like Kintzler Defilice and Stetter pitch well enough to make for a decent bullpen. Hopefully your backup infielders can be Farris and Green, which would be really cheap and Gamel presumably replaces Fielder.

 

My whole point of this thread is to note that if Milwaukee is to remain successful past 2012, they need to re-sign at least one of Marcum and Greinke....ideally both. It would take a lot of creative financing, but I'd like to think a strong 2011 and 2012 would give them enough financial flexibility to do it.

[Ennder]

I don't think this changes anything at all for Marcum or Greinke.

[derflotr]

Yeah, Braun's financial future was already set through 2015. I don't think the Brewers were ever planning to sign Greinke or Marcum for more than 4 years.

[Warning Track Power]

Absolutely agree. An offensive core of Braun, Rickie, Hart, McGehee, Lucroy & maybe Gamel matched with a starting rotation core of Gallardo, Greinke & Marcum would be fantastic. Filling the back end of the rotation with Narveson, Peralta, Rogers, Rivas of the world, while filling the bullpen with Kintzler, Axford, Braddock should provide some low cost alternatives allowing for some larger contracts to Greinke and Marcum.

 

If the Brewers could somehow get Greinke and Marcum in the fold long term the 10s could be a fantastic decade of Brewer baseball.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I would think the plan is to extend Greinke and Marcum for 4 more years until Braun's deal escalates. Then hopefully by that time some of our pitching prospects will have panned out, so we can get by with a cheaper staff for awhile. We could be very deadly with Greinke, Marcum, and Gallardo all in the rotation through 2015. I would love to see that happen.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would think the plan is to extend Greinke and Marcum for 4 more years until Braun's deal escalates.

 

If the plan is to extend Marcum for 4 seasons, I'm not sure I'd want to commit to that. And if the plan is to somehow get Grienke to agree to sign only a 4 year contract, I'll just say good luck with that.

[Warning Track Power]

I think Greinke will want to stay in a Milwaukee type market, meaning no Yankees or Red Sox. I feel the Nationals would be our chief competition in the event of him reaching FA. My guess for Greinke is almost the equivalent Braun contract. 5 years/$100MM to stay. Meaning we'd have Greinke for the next 7 years at $127MM. Do you pay that and have an average of $40MM going to 2 players (Braun & Greinke) in future years is the question?

[TooLiveBrew]

My guess for Greinke is almost the equivalent Braun contract.

 

Sabathia's deal was 7 years as he was entering his age-28 season. Cliff Lee's was 5 years as he was entering his age-32 season. Grienke will be entering his age-28 season as a free agent. He'll easily be able to find a 7 year contract if he wants it.

[paul253]

If the plan is to extend Marcum for 4 seasons, I'm not sure I'd

want to commit to that. And if the plan is to somehow get Grienke to

agree to sign only a 4 year contract, I'll just say good luck with that.

 

I agree with one point and disagree with another. I'd be fine with signing Marcum to a four year extension. I do agree Greinke will command more than a 4 year deal though. I'd go as high as 6/120 for Greinke. If you can somehow get those two signed long term it would mark a very successful transition from "scrap heap" type pitchers and overpaying for over the hill below average pitchers to having three very good pitchers and back filling the rotation with homegrown talent. Either way though, you absolutely have to re-sign either Marcum or Greinke.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Well, technically if you extend both guys, you would be signing them to 5 year deals, and could possibly up their salaries for next year also. It's possible that Greinke would take that deal. We may have to go into one or two of Braun's high paid years to keep Greinke though, so that's taking a big risk. $40 million or so to two guys is a lot of money. That wouldn't be until 2016, but it's still something to think about.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd be fine with signing Marcum to a four year extension

 

The reason I'm not is the guy isn't far removed from a TJ surgery. I know there are two types of pitchers, those who've been injured & those who will be, but still. Plus, I'd rather see the Brewers spend more money on the better talent in Grienke (if we have to pick one).

[danzig6767]

I would think the plan is to extend Greinke and Marcum for 4 more years until Braun's deal escalates.

 

If the plan is to extend Marcum for 4 seasons, I'm not sure I'd want to commit to that. And if the plan is to somehow get Grienke to agree to sign only a 4 year contract, I'll just say good luck with that.

I agree on being leery of extending Marcum. A 4yr/60 million dollar extension just scares me from both on a health and future production level. It is pretty amazing watching him get guys out so well while throwing fastballs 84-87 mph, but not enough to where i want to bank on him being able to do it for another five years even if he stays healthy.

 

Greinke is the guy i want to Brewers to try and extend at some point. Obviously he'll be very expensive if he pitches well this season and the Brewers approach Zack in the offseason about an extension, but while i might be naive here in my thinking, my gut feeling is that Greinke won't be about chasing every last dollar when deciding on where he signs his next contract. Of course he'll expect to be paid well, but i get the feeling that fit will also be hugely important to Zack, more so than many other free agents where money is clearly the highest priority. Werth being an example. I just don't think Greinke would sign that type of deal to go somewhere simply to the highest bidder even though Washington has a ways to go before being good.

 

If say he pitches well this year, the team does very well, he finds himself liking the city of Milwaukee, and he gets along well with his teammates, i just get the feeling that he'd then be open to an extension and accept a reasonable contract to where he becomes very wealthy, but doesn't ask for so much that the Brewers simply can't feel ok signing him.

[danzig6767]

If the plan is to extend Marcum for 4 seasons, I'm not sure I'd

want to commit to that. And if the plan is to somehow get Grienke to

agree to sign only a 4 year contract, I'll just say good luck with that.

 

I agree with one point and disagree with another. I'd be fine with signing Marcum to a four year extension. I do agree Greinke will command more than a 4 year deal though. I'd go as high as 6/120 for Greinke. If you can somehow get those two signed long term it would mark a very successful transition from "scrap heap" type pitchers and overpaying for over the hill below average pitchers to having three very good pitchers and back filling the rotation with homegrown talent. Either way though, you absolutely have to re-sign either Marcum or Greinke.

Let's pretend both pitchers would accept the extensions you proposed even though i'm quite leery of extending Marcum. The Brewers would then be on the hook for a combined 35 million during the fours years of Marcum/Greinke. Braun would be reaching his higher salaries. Hart is making 8 million per. Weeks will be making about 10 million per. Gallardo's expensive years in his extension will be kicking in.

 

Unless Attanasio intends to be carrying payrolls over 100 million and/or our farm system provided quite a few quality options on the cheap, there wouldn't be much money left to fill out the rest of the roster if both Greinke and Marcum were extended to go along with the other guys making fairly significant to significant money.

 

This is where Seid and the rest of the Brewers scouting department really need to replenish the farm system so that in in the fairly near future it can provide the big league club with the cheap and productive young players to offset the money being spent on locking up numerous core players.

[HiAndTight]

My guess for Greinke is almost the equivalent Braun contract.

 

Sabathia's deal was 7 years as he was entering his age-28 season. Cliff Lee's was 5 years as he was entering his age-32 season. Grienke will be entering his age-28 season as a free agent. He'll easily be able to find a 7 year contract if he wants it.

Yes, if we let it get that far.

 

If we sign him to an extension midway through this season, he makes some concessions and we take added risk. There's no absolute line these have to follow, Prince and Braun's differences show that.

[And That]

If it comes down to Marcum for 4 or Greinke for 7 at 150% of Marcum's salary, Greinke 100% of the time. I don't trust that Marcum would pitch more than 200 innings past 2012.

 

There's also the distinct possibility that Greinke just decides to walk away at some point in the next 7 years. He seems like a guy that would be happy to try out professional golfing as a career around age 32.

[The Truth]

You have to look at the human element in all this. What I mean is that Greinke marches to the beat of a different drummer, to say the least (not making fun of him, at all, but lets just just say he's not your typical pro athlete in terms of his mindset and personality). Lets first let him pitch a few games as a Brewer and see how he likes it before we talk about extending him

 

By backloading Braun's contract, the money is there. Let these guys be Brewers for half a season or so first

[logan82]

Braun's contract isn't back loaded. It is middle loaded.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Well, it is slightly. It only decreases a couple million a year at the end. What people mean is that most of the money is in the last 5 years of the deal.

[UeckerPowell]

I think if anything the Braun extension helps the chances of signing Greinke to an extension. Greinke coming from the Royals has no interest in being on a rebuilding team and with Braun on the team there is less of a chance that the Brewers will have to rebuild.

[Invader3K]

I think we could get either of Greinke or Marcum on a 4-5 year extension, it really just depends on total dollars.

[FVBrewerFan]

Assuming they can extend both Greinke and mArcum, where does that leave Yo? Without studying the dollars involved, I just find it hard to believe the Brewers could afford 4 huge contracts along with a couple fairly expensive contracts for Weeks and Hart. I understand when Prince leaves it frees up $15MM, but I don't see how they can keep the total payroll under $100MM if they sign all three pitchers?

[Invader3K]

Gallardo is already signed through 2015 (signed extension last season), so that shouldn't really be an impediment. His contract from Cot's:

 

11:$3.25M, 12:$5.5M, 13:$7.75M, 14:$11.25M, 15:$13M club option ($0.6M buyout)

[Hammer]

Assuming they can extend both Greinke and mArcum, where does that leave Yo? Without studying the dollars involved, I just find it hard to believe the Brewers could afford 4 huge contracts along with a couple fairly expensive contracts for Weeks and Hart. I understand when Prince leaves it frees up $15MM, but I don't see how they can keep the total payroll under $100MM if they sign all three pitchers?

I don't think that this team is destined to stay sub-$100MM for too much longer. If we the fans can keep the attendance well over 3MM and the team can sign a new, more lucrative TV deal I believe that I have heard that $110MM wouldn't be a problem. I could be wrong but I thought those were the factors involved...

[Invader3K]

There's supposed to be a new TV contract kicking in next year (I think). No idea on dollar figures or what impact it will have on payroll, though.

[paul253]

I think I may have over-valued Marcum when I suggested a 4/60 deal for him. He might be willing to sign something closer to a 4/40 type deal.