Ryan Braun signs extension thru 2020; 5yrs/$105MM [Latest: $18MM deferred]

[TooLiveBrew]

Eddie Murray at age 37 hit .285 with 27 HR's and 100 RBI's with a .792 OPS

Bill Brasky once hit .578 with 95 HRs and 3,000 RBI as a 38 year old. His OPS was so high it rolled back over to 0.000, & he only finished around .850.

[berniebrewer4life]

Eddie Murray at age 37 hit .285 with 27 HR's and 100 RBI's with a .792 OPS

Bill Brasky once hit .578 with 95 HRs and 3,000 RBI as a 38 year old. His OPS was so high it rolled back over to 0.000, & he only finished around .850.

http://www.motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/0809/to-bill-brasky-demotivational-poster-1221156007.jpg

[logan82]

sbrylski06[/b]]Those who think he'll be overpriced during his contract, make sure you're considering inflation. At a typical 5% rate of salary inflation, this table shows the cost of Braun's deal in today's money:

 

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	AAV
Actual Salary	$ 19.0	$ 19.0	$ 19.0	$ 18.0	$ 16.0	$ 18.2
Inflation Adjusted	$ 14.9	$ 14.2	$ 13.5	$ 12.2	$ 10.3	$ 13.0

It's more like a five-year, $65 million deal than the actual $105 million.

 

We can put this another way, and look at what the equivalent deal would be if we waited until he hit free agency and then signed him to this contract. It would be reported at that time to be a five-year, $71.3 million dollar deal.

 

In other words, the deal looks worse than it is because it doesn't kick in for five years.

That all assumes baseball salaries will rise at the rate of inflation.

[Funketown]

5% seems like a pretty decent inflation bet on MLB salaries. The salary does look quite a bit better when that's taken into account.

[logan82]

Maybe but in general it seems like MLB salaries for the top players have sort of plateaued and salaries for not quite top players have dropped.

[dlk9s]

For me, beyond the dollar amounts, there's a sentimental, emotional aspect of this that makes me happy the deal got done. You all know how we Wisconsin/Milwaukee sports fans are: we appreciate more than most fans the players who seem to genuinely like playing for our teams, who seem to actually enjoy being part of the community. Ryan Braun is California-raised, Miami-schooled, but decided that he wants to essentially be a Milwaukeean for the rest of his career. Yeah, I know the money is good, but he didn't have to sign either of the long-term deals.

 

The fact that a superstar, and a "cool" one at that, wants to stay in Milwaukee means something to me, and something much more than it would to fans of most other teams.

[Menace II Sobriety]

I don't know how to embed a video but I didn't realize Braun was "cool".

 

[danzig6767]

Initially I was pretty excited when I read this. Then I started to reflect on it more and it occurred to me that the Brewers will be paying 20 mil per year for someone in their mid 30s and my enthusiam waned. I sincerely hope he stays healthy and productive for the length of the contract otherwise... ouch.

 

edit. Missed the deferred money part, which I really don't like at all. I'd rather not be on the hook to players once they are done playing, but that's personal prefference.

You might not like the deferred money part, but Mark A I'm sure loves it and that is probably one of the main reasons this deal got done. Mark A is a finance guy and he knows all about the present value of money, ie a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Not only because of inflation but because of interest. So that is a huge factor in this calc. I am reading a lot of people discussing that it's a good deal from an inflation stand point, but I would assume the deferred money is even a bigger impact. No one knows for sure what the inflation rate is going to be, especially from a MLB contract stand point, but you can probably nail down an effective interest rate over a 10 year period or do variable analysis to let you know what the present value of the contract is. I think they even mentioned the guy in the PC who looked at the deferred money for the brewers. So this could be an even more team friendly deal than it is being presented as.

 

But aside from all that, I think this is a good deal. Yeah, Braun could slip in the shower tomorrow, hurt his back and never play another game for the brewers and we'd be screwed. But on the other hand he is a superstar and superstars generally aren't knocking down the door to come play in Milwaukee. Heck we had to way overpay for Jeff Suppan to come pitch here. Would you rather give a long term deal to a Superstar or get stuck overpaying for mediocrity. I'd rather give the long term deal to the superstar and take my chances.

 

Good post

 

Barring a very serious injury, i just can't envision Braun declining at such a rapid rate in years say 34-35-36 that the deal in those years will be viewed as a major mistake. Maybe he declines to where he's a little overpaid in the last year or two of his deal, to where he's making an extra 5-7 million more per year than he should, but even then the team will have made off well in overall value of production received vs all money paid out over his time with the Brewers. Plus, it's also just as possible Braun isn't enough in that type of decline later in his contract to where he's overpaid at all when wage inflation is factored in.

 

A few positives IMO with Braun

 

1. He's very goal orientated. Ryan doesn't at all seem like the type of guy that will get complacent now that he's set for life financially and doesn't have to produce to earn a new contract. He seems like the type of athlete with a very strong desire to be great, to stay great, make the Hall of Fame, and thus will be willing to keep putting in the work each offseason to stay on top of his game.

 

2. Braun doesn't have that Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, etc type of body and skillset which are more likely to decline sooner. Ryan is a great athlete and as a hitter, he isn't just a power guy. He has consistently hit for both average and power, i see no reason to believe that will change. While he certainly isn't a good outfielder right now, if in his mid-30's he has to move to say firstbase, he won't have a Prince type of build to where he can barely move and needs to be a DH instead.

 

3. Some don't believe in the sentimental aspect to sports, just the bottom line results. If though Braun continues on his path to the HOF, i think there is value to the Brewers franchise to keep a player for his whole career if indeed Ryan does end up being in the HOF, even if that means we overpay him a bit at the end of his deal. If say Braun becomes the next Robin Yount of the Brewers, i think that has importance beyond just money and we don't as fans have to watch him play his last five years in another uniform as we did with Molitor.

[bucksman4]

One thing I found particularly interesting was the timing of when Braun approached the Brewers with the idea of the "Brewer for Life" extension. This Spring Training one Brewer Hall of Famer was present far more often than in years past. Robin Yount. I am sure he and Braun chatted about Milwaukee and Robin may have told him something along the lines of "kid, if you show loyalty and commitment to the Brewers and the city, you'll forever be a legend in Milwaukee...trust me."

 

Braun is probably the smartest businessman/baseball player I've ever seen in my lifetime. He's media savvy, an entrepreneur, a self-promoter while maintaining a team-first mind-set. He sees the big picture. Backloading his deal so that the team can remain competitive is a nice example of how winning is truly his priority. He knows he will forever have a role as a Brewers ambassador well beyond his playing days and understands that loyalty and dedication from athletes playing in Milwaukee mean everything to Brewers fans.

 

I am 100% convinced the Brewers made the right decision, both in the short-term giving us flexibility to lock up starting pitching, while in the long-term locking down the face of the franchise and a built-in recruiter for potential free agents. Why wouldn't he recruit? He's invested into this organization way more than any player in the history of the Brewers franchise.

[Oldcity]

The Brewers already had him through his prime years at a bargain price. This is a 95 million dollar contract for his age 32-36 years. Unnecessary.

[And That]

I really hate to use the lame-out "I haven't read all the thread, so I don't know if this has been mentioned, but..." line, but I did the Power 50 this morning and was not home when this happened, so I'm just catching up.

 

I wonder if Braun's signing bonus will affect this year's budget? Attanasio has said that they'll spend money if a player is available, but the payroll just rose by $10M this year. Will it hamper the Brewers at the trade deadline when they make their inevitable deal for a bench bat? Don't get me wrong, having Braun around until I'm almost 40 at a cost-controlled level is worth the price of admission, but what about this year?

[danzig6767]

bucksman4 wrote:

 

I am 100% convinced the Brewers made the right decision, both in the short-term giving us flexibility to lock up starting pitching, while in the long-term locking down the face of the franchise and a built-in recruiter for potential free agents. Why wouldn't he recruit? He's invested into this organization way more than any player in the history of the Brewers franchise.

I understand the premise you're trying to present and overall i like the extension to Braun, but i don't see one advantage being that he'll then be able to recruit free agents in the future. The main reason why being that the team really won't be able to afford to sign many or even any significant free agents.

 

The Brewers if they are going to be able to be a pretty consistently solid to good team over the next 5-10 years, they'll largely accomplish that by drafting well and then locking up as many as possible of those players who perform well in the big leagues also, as we've seen with Braun, Gallardo, Weeks, and Hart. To be able to lock up those draftees who end up performing in the majors over multiple years, we'll also need to keep producing young kids that are really cheap for the first 3-4 years of service time. Mix in some some savvy trades and/or cheap steals like McGehee/Loe/Axford.

 

Signing free agents of note likely won't happen often regardless if Braun tries recruiting because the money just won't be there. Braun's long term deal though could at least help persuade some guys going forward that are already on the Brewers to consider extensions because Ryan is assured of being here.

[davemakovec]

I love it. This guy's going to be a Brewer for his entire career.

[jjfanec]

Braun's long term deal though could at least help persuade some guys going forward that are already on the Brewers to consider extensions because Ryan is assured of being here.

I definitely think this will help us have a chance to land Greinke long-term. He wanted a team committed to winning, and this sends that message. Now whether we have enough money is another question

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun has elevated himself to all time sports royalty in the state of Wisconsin along side his buddy Aaron Rodgers who accomplished that just a couple months ago.

 

That's assuming he produces a HOF career which seems likely at this point. Should he do that, fans will one day see Braun's statue outside of Miller Park and probably the park that eventually replaces it in the later half of the century.

 

Robin Yount is the only other Brewer (not counting Aaron of course who achieved that as a Brave) on that list in my opinion.

[YoungGeezy]

Great move! For those calling it unnecessary, there is a good chance that Braun is a "fine wine" player who only continues to get better with age. Plenty of greats play 32-37 at a very high level. I'm not to worried about the cost because like everyone has said with inflation this will be a very reasonable deal. I think the biggest thing is that we have our career player. I think today is a great day a great day to be a Brewer fan. This also continues to tell the players that if you play hard, do your job and don't have an !%$#!@ of an agent (Boris cough Boris cough) we are willing to take care of you and we are loyal to you. That is a great messege to send.

 

My only wise is that there would be more players like an Aaron, Yount, and Braun who are actually truely loyal to a franchise and the fans. Something that has really been lost in sports

[Thurston Fluff]

but Mark A I'm sure loves it and that is probably one of the main reasons this deal got done. Mark A is a finance guy and he knows all about the present value of money, ie a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow.

 

I don't know the specifics of this deal but usually deferred money comes with interest so the actual dollars paid probably is more than the face value of deferred money.

Two things I am usually against is deferred money and no trade clauses. Deferred money can hamper a team past his years on the team and the other limit options in building a team. In this case I don't have a problem with it. The deferred money is offset by the home town discount he's given twice now. The no trade clause a fair exchange for someone who was willing to give us the home town discount because he loves being here.

 

All in all a great day to be a Brewers fan.

[MJLiverock]

I think sbrylski06's table sums up my thoughts very well. A 5% inflation discount factor for a supestar level player is not far fetched. Even in 2010 when baseball was supposedly going to be tight with money because of the economic recession and fears, the total baseball salaries went up 2.35%. As the wage recession ends and inflation in the regular economy picks up a bit the 5% factor for top players is probably fair.

http://bizofbaseball.com/...=26:editorials&Itemid=39

 

7 or 8 years ago when guys like Vlad Guerrero signed a $10 Million per year deal it seemed like a ton of money. Today there are over 50 players making over $10 Million per year, with something like 25 or so making over $17 Million per year. Guys like Randy Wolf are getting paid over $10MM per, Adam Dunn a guy who can't field is 32 gets $14MM. Braun making an inflation adjusted $13MM per for his age 32-36 seasons doesn't seem excessive at all. He probably won't even be in the top 50-75 highest paid players in the game at that point, because even today a guy making $19MM per barely cracks the top 20.

[COBrewerfan]

The Brewers already had him through his prime years at a bargain price. This is a 95 million dollar contract for his age 32-36 years. Unnecessary.

Pujols is hitting the market after this season and will be 31 when the season starts next year. He is asking and going to get a long and expensive contract. Why is having braun locked up for those years a bad thing? Especially when you look at the 150 mil or so that he will get from 08-20 is just under 12 mil a year. I would say we are getting quite a deal here. Braun is in great shape and even if he declines a bit in those years, we get a bargain now and overpay a little then. It all evens out.

 

 

[logan82]

Who said a contract like that for Pujols would be a good idea?

[Hart Of Milwaukee]

Hey Guys, here is my blog on the Braun signing. I believe this extension was pre-mature and I feel like I provided some solid rationale as to why. Let me know what you think!http://bennylips.wordpress.com/2011/04/22/braun-over-brains/

[JJHardy7]

Who said a contract like that for Pujols would be a good idea?

 

Nobody is saying that, but the market is the market.

 

I know we can break down all kinds of fun stats and worries, but the chance to have a future HOF play his entire career in Milwaukee in this day and age is something I'm very excited about.

 

Just think of 5 - 10 years ago. An elite player WANTS to spend their entire career in Milwaukee and the first contract he signed and potentially the second is below market. That is very cool.

 

I don't think Ryan gets enough credit for the type of athlete he is. How many players have moved to the OF their 2nd year in the bigs and been studs? I'd imagine a small list. Braun obviously isn't a stud fielder, but he should get a little better with more experience and there's no reason to think he can't handle 1B if/when it is decided he should move there.

[ilovebeer]

I am very happy about this. I can't wait to go to Cooperstown to see him get inducted. I don't thin Braun will break any of Robin's records Robin will have about 4 or 5 more years with the Brewers since Robin started at 18 and Braun at 23.

[xisxisxis]

Ryan Braun just showed Albert Pujols what the meaning of classy is.

[crewcrazy]

According to the Associated Press, the five-year, $105 million extension Braun signed Thursday includes at least $18 million in interest-free deferrals to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022-2031. The deferrals were key to the deal from both sides.

 

Braun’s extension covers 2016-20 and includes salaries of $19 million from 2016-18, of which $4 million is deferred with no interest each season; $18 million in 2019, of which $3 million is deferred; and $16 million in 2020, of which $3 million is deferred.

 

The deal also includes a mutual option for 2021 that calls for a $15 million base salary that can escalate up to $20 million based on 2020 awards such as league MVP, Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Any of those escalators would be deferred with no interest.

 

From McCalvy's blog.

 

With the deferrals, Braun's year-to-year payroll hit will be 15-15-15-15-13 through the 5 guaranteed years. $18 million would be deferred, which would mean $2 million payments to Braun every year from 2022-2031. Seems like a lot now, but $2 million in 20 years might be nothing, considering inflation.