Ryan Braun signs extension thru 2020; 5yrs/$105MM [Latest: $18MM deferred]

[Point Beer Is Best]

This might have been posted already, but from Ryan Braun's Facebook fan page:

 

 

I'm going to be a Milwaukee Brewer through at least 2020!! I've grown attached to Milwaukee and most importantly the Brewer fans. I consider it a privilege to have the opportunity to play here for the next 10 years. I'm excited about the direction of the organization and our chance to win. My goal is to bring a World Series Championship to the Brewers organization and the city of Milwaukee and I promise to do everything in my power to make that dream a reality! Thank you to the Brewers organization for making this possible.

 

That bolded part made me smile.

Something I just noticed, but the post before that from Tuesday was a huge hint that something was coming:

Big win for us last night!! Truly a sign of our character and resilience to continue to battle and find a way to win a really tough game against a great team. Look for an exciting Facebook Post from me on Thursday...

[Spidey]

Here is my simple argument for those that think the Braun extension was a bad idea (not that you're wrong, because of risk): If not Braun, then what player can the Brewers extend for that long? If the answer is no one, then I believe the Brewers should probably have gone for a team-building strategy similar to the Tampa Bay Rays (or what Kansas City is trying to do) and build up entirely from cheap, young players (Again, not a bad strategy). If that was the case, then the Brewers never should have traded for Greinke and Marcum, and should probably be trying to deal Braun away now, so as to stock pile more young, controllable players. The problem with that strategy is that it is not that much fun in the interim for the fans, and would erode the excellent fan-base already established, plus the reward might only come around once in a blue moon, or every 16 years or so. While I approve of building up young, controllable talent, I believe it needs to be supplemented with established elite talent like Braun. If Braun approaches the Brewers about an extension, and they decline, it might not do much for retaining any talent longer than their arby years in the future, especially in a market such as Milwaukee. I believe the Brewers have already tried this approach, and that window has closed. Eventually, I believe that the team needs to take a chance to stay competitive or the Brewers will see another few decades of .500 or lower seasons.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like Braun, I don't really like this deal. I don't hate it, I just don't really like it. Guaranteeing him $76M for his age 32-36 seasons could wind up being a little ugly. Hopefully he'll eventually transition to 1B.

[Flood Pants]

Meh. Paying $10million today in order to have along term deal with a guy in his mid 30s 5 years from now? Its not terrible but the amount of risk taken on is huge for what might be very little savings. The idea that salaries keep going up is how you get Vernon Wells type deals.

Inflation is also a factor, though. 100 million will be less money in nine years that it is today. More than likely, at least.

[HiAndTight]

Braun strikes me as the kind of person that would want to be the front and center franchise piece that wants to drive his home team to the World Series one day. I don't think the money matters much to him as long as he's getting at least ~75% of what top dollar would be, which is right about where I would place this contract. I have to think this makes Greinke super comfortable about signing, something I expect to happen next offseason if we go to the playoffs. He strikes me as having the same mentality.

This makes some sense. A player can be one of many great Yankees, who will always be overshadowed by others, or they can be a folk hero in Wisconsin for the next 100 years. When CC left, he made a statement insinuating that he was more comfortable where he wouldn't be the one superstar with the spotlight shining on him, and would rather have teammates getting the attention. I think Braun is happy to be "the man" in Milwaukee.

I remember this as well. After this statement was made I was more okay with CC not signing with the Brewers. I am more comfortable when my team's stud players have "the man" mentality.

Yeah, but being "the man" while he was here certainly didn't bother him much.

 

I have no opinion on a guys feelings about being the guy if he can be historically good during a playoff run.

[Yeti73]

Look at the guys Braun compares to at 26. Unless injuries slow him significantly, you're talking about a first ballot hall of famer, which we've only had twice in the past thirty years, and one of those two left under bad circumstances.

[jerichoholicninja]

Love the deal but it will definitely hurt later. At the end of that contract when Braun can barely move at whatever position he's playing, putting up mediocre numbers and starting just because of the contract we'll look at it differently. I think it's great a guy wants to spend his whole career here but at the end he will be Cal Ripken, Jr. hanging around a huge shell of his former self but being paid like a superstar.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Love the deal but it will definitely hurt later. At the end of that contract when Braun can barely move at whatever position he's playing, putting up mediocre numbers and starting just because of the contract we'll look at it differently. I think it's great a guy wants to spend his whole career here but at the end he will be Cal Ripken, Jr. hanging around a huge shell of his former self but being paid like a superstar.

Why are we assuming a 36 year old will be able to 'barely move'? Brauns a good athlete. Yes, he'll likely have lost a step or 2 at 36, but isn't 'barely move' a bit of an exaggeration?

[Baldkin]

As PED testing gets better careers will get back to being closer to the normal curve. Guys playing until they are 40 won't be the norm anymore.

That's what worries me about this deal.... as well as WAR graphs like these.

[Ennder]

I'm not really worried about Braun aging poorly, he doesn't have an old players skillset at all. I'm much more concerned about injuries derailing things, 10 years is an awfully long time to hope someone stays healthy and productive. This deal seems pretty pointless to me but I don't hate it outright.

[monty57]

This makes some sense. A player can be one of many great Yankees, who will always be overshadowed by others, or they can be a folk hero in Wisconsin for the next 100 years. When CC left, he made a statement insinuating that he was more comfortable where he wouldn't be the one superstar with the spotlight shining on him, and would rather have teammates getting the attention. I think Braun is happy to be "the man" in Milwaukee.

I remember this as well. After this statement was made I was more okay with CC not signing with the Brewers. I am more comfortable when my team's stud players have "the man" mentality.

Yeah, but being "the man" while he was here certainly didn't bother him much.

 

I have no opinion on a guys feelings about being the guy if he can be historically good during a playoff run.

I was looking at it more from the light of why a superstar player would choose to sign or extend with one team over another. People in Wisconsin will likely be still be reminiscing about Braun when my now-seven-month-old is ready to retire. Not only did CC say he didn't want to be "the guy" in Milwaukee, it appeared he didn't really want the bright lights of New York City... he didn't sign until they offered such a ridiculous deal he couldn't refuse. Even if they can play under pressure, not every player relishes being in the spotlight. I think Grienke may be that type of player, which is why I'm cautiously optimistic that he will sign an extension to stay in Milwaukee. Wouldn't that be something, Braun, Weeks, Gallardo, Grienke... all signed long term.

 

[The Truth]

In terms of a 36 year old... looking at BaseballReference.com's list of similar batters to Ryan Braun:

 

Manny Ramirez at age 36 hit .332 with 37 HR's 121 RBI's and a 1.031 OPS but that was likely steroid assisted

Jim Thome at age 36 hit .275 with 35 HR's 96 RBI's and a .973 OPS

Billy Williams at age 36 hit .280 with 16 HR's & 68 RBI's (in 117 games) and a .835 OPS

Billy Williams at age 37 in a full season hit .244 with 23 HR's and 81 RBI's with a .760 OPS

 

many of the similar batters, such as Hall of Famers Ralph Kiner and Chick Hafey, played in a different era and were no longer playing at age 36

[TheCrew07]

Initially I was pretty excited when I read this. Then I started to reflect on it more and it occurred to me that the Brewers will be paying 20 mil per year for someone in their mid 30s and my enthusiam waned. I sincerely hope he stays healthy and productive for the length of the contract otherwise... ouch.

 

edit. Missed the deferred money part, which I really don't like at all. I'd rather not be on the hook to players once they are done playing, but that's personal prefference.

[BrewCrewForever]

I was quite happy when I heard the news. The thought of a player as good as Ryan Braun being like another Robin Yount and spending his entire career here in Milwaukee is very exciting. Not sure how this deal will look toward the end of it, but I am very pumped for the present and the near future.

[endaround]

But the only effect this has on the present is to drain current bankrolls to pay Braun $10m today. So if anything this is a negative for the present.

[monty57]

As PED testing gets better careers will get back to being closer to the normal curve. Guys playing until they are 40 won't be the norm anymore.

That's what worries me about this deal.... as well as WAR graphs like these.

True, but without the PED's, he also won't put on the extra weight a la Bonds which caused his knees to become worthless so he couldn't move in the field. I'm not too worried about signing him through age 36, as he's in great shape. He's not likely to age like Fielder.

[The Truth]

Since Ryan Braun is the similar hitter to Manny Ramirez at age 26, if we look at Manny Ramirez's most similar hitters:

 

Ken Griffey Jr at age 37 hit .277 with 30 HR's & 93 RBI's with an .869 OPS

Frank Robinson at age 37 hit .266 with 30 HR's and 97 RBI's with a .861 OPS

Chipper Jones at age 36 hit .364 with 22 HR's & 75 RBI's in 128 games with a 1.044 OPS

Mel Ott at age 36 hit .308 with 21 HR's & 79 RBI's and a .910 OPS

 

The question is do you believe that Ryan Braun is as good as those elite players? I do

[The Truth]

Vladimir Guerrero is 36 years old this season, last year at the age of 35 he hit .300 with 29 HR's , 115 RBI's and a .841 OPS

[The Truth]

By the way, that statement of being "one of just five players in Major League Baseball history to hit 125 homers and post a .300 batting average over the first four seasons of his career (the others are Joe DiMaggio, Chuck Klein, Albert Pujols and Ted Williams)", while looking through stats, Vladimir Guerrero should be added to that, unless you count the 9 games he played as a 21 year old...

[sbrylski]

Those who think he'll be overpriced during his contract, make sure you're considering inflation. At a typical 5% rate of salary inflation, this table shows the cost of Braun's deal in today's money:

 

	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	AAV
Actual Salary	$ 19.0	$ 19.0	$ 19.0	$ 18.0	$ 16.0	$ 18.2
Inflation Adjusted	$ 14.9	$ 14.2	$ 13.5	$ 12.2	$ 10.3	$ 13.0

It's more like a five-year, $65 million deal than the actual $105 million.

 

We can put this another way, and look at what the equivalent deal would be if we waited until he hit free agency and then signed him to this contract. It would be reported at that time to be a five-year, $71.3 million dollar deal.

 

In other words, the deal looks worse than it is because it doesn't kick in for five years.

[The Truth]

Eddie Murray at age 37 hit .285 with 27 HR's and 100 RBI's with a .792 OPS

[Menace II Sobriety]

Initially I was pretty excited when I read this. Then I started to reflect on it more and it occurred to me that the Brewers will be paying 20 mil per year for someone in their mid 30s and my enthusiam waned. I sincerely hope he stays healthy and productive for the length of the contract otherwise... ouch.

 

edit. Missed the deferred money part, which I really don't like at all. I'd rather not be on the hook to players once they are done playing, but that's personal prefference.

Braun considers himself to have a strong business acumen, this is why they approached the team IMO. At this point their is only one team he could negotiate with for several years. At this point with the team friendly deal he signed he should be looking to recoup that money on the back end. He just turned possibly the 2nd most team friendly deal in the big leagues behind Longoria in the I believe the 2nd longest behind Tulo. On top of that he deferred payments into the years past his playing days which guarantee him some walking around money plus the interest gained on deferred payments while he transitions into his 2nd career, He has set himself up quite well for the future.

[PrestigeWorldwide]

After hearing his quotes about the fans during his press conference, he better get one of the longest, loudest standing ovations in Miller Park history tomorrow night.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Initially I was pretty excited when I read this. Then I started to reflect on it more and it occurred to me that the Brewers will be paying 20 mil per year for someone in their mid 30s and my enthusiam waned. I sincerely hope he stays healthy and productive for the length of the contract otherwise... ouch.

 

edit. Missed the deferred money part, which I really don't like at all. I'd rather not be on the hook to players once they are done playing, but that's personal prefference.

You might not like the deferred money part, but Mark A I'm sure loves it and that is probably one of the main reasons this deal got done. Mark A is a finance guy and he knows all about the present value of money, ie a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Not only because of inflation but because of interest. So that is a huge factor in this calc. I am reading a lot of people discussing that it's a good deal from an inflation stand point, but I would assume the deferred money is even a bigger impact. No one knows for sure what the inflation rate is going to be, especially from a MLB contract stand point, but you can probably nail down an effective interest rate over a 10 year period or do variable analysis to let you know what the present value of the contract is. I think they even mentioned the guy in the PC who looked at the deferred money for the brewers. So this could be an even more team friendly deal than it is being presented as.

 

But aside from all that, I think this is a good deal. Yeah, Braun could slip in the shower tomorrow, hurt his back and never play another game for the brewers and we'd be screwed. But on the other hand he is a superstar and superstars generally aren't knocking down the door to come play in Milwaukee. Heck we had to way overpay for Jeff Suppan to come pitch here. Would you rather give a long term deal to a Superstar or get stuck overpaying for mediocrity. I'd rather give the long term deal to the superstar and take my chances.

 

 

[berniebrewer4life]

Eddie Murray at age 37 hit .285 with 27 HR's and 100 RBI's with a .792 OPS

he also played his last several years during the middle of the steroid era, so i would take those numbers with a grain of salt.

 

EDIT: i didn't see all the other comparisons you made, and for the record, i agree with most of those.