Some people need to say they are sorry to RRR

[Marc Newfield of Dreams]

Difference in philosophy, I guess. I prefer not to take the chance of running into the first out at home plate, even with a possible reward.

 

Your first sentence is why I hate putting it on there. You're right, you don't know where it's gonna be hit. This time, the ball was hit in front of Betancourt. Barring an error, he's not scoring there. The ball is faster than him and has less ground to cover.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I know it's personal philosophy. I'm just saying that you really can't get on Roenicke for putting that play on. Most managers would do the same thing. If you want 2nd and 3rd with 1 out there, then just bunt it.

[TooLiveBrew]

The contact play sucks imo because it's too absolute. I'd much rather let a runner exercise his own judgment on whether or not he can score, than to dictate to any runner that he should go just because. And really? Sacrifice a runner at 3B to stay out of the double play?

[PrinceEatMeat]

The contact play sucks imo because it's too absolute. I'd much rather let a runner exercise his own judgment on whether or not he can score, than to dictate to any runner that he should go just because. And really? Sacrifice a runner at 3B to stay out of the double play?

The problem is that to score from third on a grounder in those situation you have to take off on contact. So it really can't be the runners judgment. If he doesn't run on contact, he'll likely be cut down at home plate. And you aren't sacrificing the runner at 3rd, because the runner from first should get to 3rd anyway, which Lucroy messes up obviously. At worst, you should end up with runners at 1st and 3rd with 1 out. Obviously, we screwed it up about as bad as possible last night, but normally that won't happen.

[HiAndTight]

Anybody else think Gomez would've been an all-star in the steroid era? Dude's a power hitter without power who plays awesome D and runs like the wind. Roids could've put a few more feet on those fly outs.

 

He's not without power, he's without contact ability. I think he would have still sucked in the 'roids era', even though I don't think that PED abuse is over by any stretch of the imagination.

I agree. You've noticed an entirely different approach from him as of late though. Taking pitches, not swinging at hittable breaking balls early in counts. Just having a much more relaxed approach, and obviously the sampling is tiny, but if he can keep doing that, and a fundamental change in his approach is more telling than the results(which have also been encouraging).

 

He'll hit for some power if he can somehow continue approaching his AB's that way. Of course I'm not convinced, but....hey, I'm more optimistic than I have been until now..

[danzig6767]

Anybody else think Gomez would've been an all-star in the steroid era? Dude's a power hitter without power who plays awesome D and runs like the wind. Roids could've put a few more feet on those fly outs.

 

He's not without power, he's without contact ability. I think he would have still sucked in the 'roids era', even though I don't think that PED abuse is over by any stretch of the imagination.

I agree. You've noticed an entirely different approach from him as of late though. Taking pitches, not swinging at hittable breaking balls early in counts. Just having a much more relaxed approach, and obviously the sampling is tiny, but if he can keep doing that, and a fundamental change in his approach is more telling than the results(which have also been encouraging).

 

He'll hit for some power if he can somehow continue approaching his AB's that way. Of course I'm not convinced, but....hey, I'm more optimistic than I have been until now..

I don't think Gomez will ever hit for a significant amount of power regardless of his approach at the plate, but i also have noticed him of late actually being fairly selective at the plate. This in turn has lead to more 2-1/3-1 type of counts instead of 0-1/1-2 type of counts, which is a refreshing change.

 

It remains to be seen if this change in approach is temporary and soon he'll revert back to consistently hacking at garbage early in the count, but for the first time since Carlos has been a Brewer, i at least have a tiny sliver of hope that he isn't a complete lost cause at the plate.

[HiAndTight]

I don't think Gomez will ever hit for a significant amount of power regardless of his approach at the plate, but i also have noticed him of late actually being fairly selective at the plate. This in turn has lead to more 2-1/3-1 type of counts instead of 0-1/1-2 type of counts, which is a refreshing change.

 

It remains to be seen if this change in approach is temporary and soon he'll revert back to consistently hacking at garbage early in the count, but for the first time since Carlos has been a Brewer, i at least have a tiny sliver of hope that he isn't a complete lost cause at the plate.

I think if he does continue to work himself into good counts, and that's a monumental if still obviously, but if he does, I see no reason he wouldn't develop 20-25 HR power.

 

I wouldn't bet on the new approach carrying, but at 6'4 215, he's got the raw power. He just doesn't have the selection.

[danzig6767]

HiAndTight]

I don't think Gomez will ever hit for a significant amount of power regardless of his approach at the plate, but i also have noticed him of late actually being fairly selective at the plate. This in turn has lead to more 2-1/3-1 type of counts instead of 0-1/1-2 type of counts, which is a refreshing change.

 

It remains to be seen if this change in approach is temporary and soon he'll revert back to consistently hacking at garbage early in the count, but for the first time since Carlos has been a Brewer, i at least have a tiny sliver of hope that he isn't a complete lost cause at the plate.

I think if he does continue to work himself into good counts, and that's a monumental if still obviously, but if he does, I see no reason he wouldn't develop 20-25 HR power.

 

I wouldn't bet on the new approach carrying, but at 6'4 215, he's got the raw power. He just doesn't have the selection.

Size and good pitch selection doesn't necessarily equal power. Much of the power a batter generates comes from their swing. It's why at about 6'1 210 Ryan Braun has always had incredible power even when he wasn't exactly that selective at the plate, but numerous players his size or bigger with equal or better plate discipline can't hit for the power Ryan does.

 

Sure, here and there Gomez will not only hit a homer, he'll absolutely crush the ball and he is a strong guy physically, but i just don't see him becoming a power hitter with better pitch selection. Guys who hit 20 plus homers a year don't just hit grooved pitches out. He has only 19 home runs in 1384 career at bats, that's not just because he's has abysmal plate discipline. If Carlos improved his plate discipline fairly significantly, i could see him hitting maybe 12-15 home runs, but i see 20 as very unlikely and 25 as extremely unlikely regardless if he had a near miraculously good change in pitch selection.

[GAME05]

i like that Gomez is hitting #2. maybe it's not his absolute ideal spot this year, but Gomez isn't really going to have any long-term value unless he learns to hit high in the order. unless we get to the All-Star Break and it still isn't working, i like that RR is giving Gomez a shot there. and maybe his bunting isn't spectacular yet, but it still keeps the infield from sitting back too far and gobbling up what would be easy grounders. very few players are going to be ideal at their position or batting order when they come up, but you gotta give a guy a chance.

 

i really love that RR has this team running a lot. people can certainly argue that running has almost a negative value to a team, but it at least has an aesthetic one for me. the games are just that much more fun to watch than if people just stood on the bases. sure enjoyed seeing Gomez steal second on a pickoff play.

[endaround]

Why does Gomez only have value hitting high in the order?

[JohnBriggs12]

Why does Gomez only have value hitting high in the order?

He's going to get more pitches to hit batting there than he would in the 7 or 8 spot. That's going to allow him to maximize his numbers and allows them eventually to add pop to the 6 hole when Hart returns.. Right now, he's on pace to score 108 runs.

 

While his OBP will not ever be great, he causes enough havoc when he is on to distract opposing pitchers when they have enough to worry about facing Braun and Fielder. The difference between a .350 OBP and a .300 OBP, is 5 extra times on every 100 PA, or about one a week. He's also tough to double up so when Weeks reaches, his groundballs at worst end up as fielders choices, leaving a huge threat still on.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Where he hits in the lineup has nothing to do with how he'll be pitched. Teams know the kind of hitter he his. They'll take the same approach against him no matter what. He still has the same value lower in the lineup. Plus, when he's lower in the lineup he'll be more free to run, and not have to worry about getting thrown out with Braun and Fielder at the plate. Hart did very well in the 2 hole last year, and I'd rather keep him there. He gets on base a lot more than Gomez, which makes him a better option there. Lower in the lineup, we won't notice Gomez's slumps as much. He's just overall not a good enough hitter to be in the 2 hole. Who he hits in front of in the lineup really makes no difference. People say no one sees good pitches in the 8 hole, and Lucroy has hit well there. McGehee has no "protection" and he still puts up good numbers. Weeks has Gomez behind him and still hits well. It really makes no difference. Braun will still be Braun without Fielder behind him next year. I don't see why people say Gomez has more value in the 2 hole. He's the same player no matter where he hits.

[greeg35]

even if he individually hits a tic or two better in the two hole, he would be in a position to hurt the team more overall by getting more AB's and making more outs than his theoretical replacement. Why would we want to do that?

[Dollarbill13]

While his OBP will not ever be great, he causes enough havoc when he is on to distract opposing pitchers when they have enough to worry about facing Braun and Fielder. The difference between a .350 OBP and a .300 OBP, is 5 extra times on every 100 PA, or about one a week. He's also tough to double up so when Weeks reaches, his groundballs at worst end up as fielders choices, leaving a huge threat still on.

You're right that it isn't a huge difference but it is a difference, so why give up the extra baserunners. Just using some hypothetical numbers, lets say you have 700 plate appearances for the #2 hitter during the season and your options are Gomez and his .300/.360 line with excellent base running and a theoretical .350/400 hitter with average base running. The theoretical guy is going to get on base 35 times more during the season. With a 35% "scoring rate" he'd score 12 more runs over the course of the season. Gomez baserunning skills might get him an extra couple runs but I would argue that those runs would be cancelled out by the added runs that Weeks scores due to the improved slugging percentage. So overall, 12 runs isn't overly significant but why give them up when you don't have to?

[FVBrewerFan]

Besides, this other #2 hitter isn't theoretical. It's Corey Hart. Higher OBP, and much higher slugging. I rather have Corey Hart getting an extra AB than Gomez.

[danzig6767]

While his OBP will not ever be great, he causes enough havoc when he is on to distract opposing pitchers when they have enough to worry about facing Braun and Fielder. The difference between a .350 OBP and a .300 OBP, is 5 extra times on every 100 PA, or about one a week. He's also tough to double up so when Weeks reaches, his groundballs at worst end up as fielders choices, leaving a huge threat still on.

You're right that it isn't a huge difference but it is a difference, so why give up the extra baserunners. Just using some hypothetical numbers, lets say you have 700 plate appearances for the #2 hitter during the season and your options are Gomez and his .300/.360 line with excellent base running and a theoretical .350/400 hitter with average base running. The theoretical guy is going to get on base 35 times more during the season. With a 35% "scoring rate" he'd score 12 more runs over the course of the season. Gomez baserunning skills might get him an extra couple runs but I would argue that those runs would be cancelled out by the added runs that Weeks scores due to the improved slugging percentage. So overall, 12 runs isn't overly significant but why give them up when you don't have to?

While i'm definitely not in the camp of wanting to keep Gomez in the 2 spot once Hart gets back, i've been borderline shocked at the much higher quality approach Gomez has shown at the plate over the last 5-6 games or so. He's actually been working the count on a regular basis, laying off garbage offspeed pitches off the plate, and getting into 2-1/3-1 type of counts.

 

I'm certainly skeptical that Gomez can continue approaching most of his at bats this way, but i never thought i'd see the day where Carlos could go about 5 straight games without really any of his patented ugly at bats .

[rluzinski]

The difference between a .350 OBP and .300 OBP is 2o year career in the majors vs. AAA.

[HiAndTight]

Where he hits in the lineup has nothing to do with how he'll be pitched. Teams know the kind of hitter he his. They'll take the same approach against him no matter what.

I've seen this argument before and think it's a complete fallacy. You're telling me that with Weeks on first, Braun and Prince up after Gomez, he'll get the same pitches to hit in a 2-0, 3-1 count as he could hitting say 8th in the order?

 

I doubt anyone would argue such a thing. So now if you agree with that, then obviously there are variations of how you're pitched depending on who is coming up, and as such it's got SOMETHING to do with it. I wouldn't say it's an overwhelming factor, but it's more definitely relevant.

[rluzinski]

Where he hits in the lineup has nothing to do with how he'll be pitched. Teams know the kind of hitter he his. They'll take the same approach against him no matter what.

I've seen this argument before and think it's a complete fallacy. You're telling me that with Weeks on first, Braun and Prince up after Gomez, he'll get the same pitches to hit in a 2-0, 3-1 count as he could hitting say 8th in the order?

 

I doubt anyone would argue such a thing. So now if you agree with that, then obviously there are variations of how you're pitched depending on who is coming up, and as such it's got SOMETHING to do with it. I wouldn't say it's an overwhelming factor, but it's more definitely relevant.

I'm sure it is a factor but the effect but I believe that the effect is overstated by the average baseball fan. You can always look at stuff like this as a starting point:

http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=71

An average #2 gets 3% more fastballs than a #8. So if a guy averages 4 pitches per PA, he'll get one extra fastball every 8 PA? Of course, it's hard to say how much of that difference is even dependent on batting order position. I think much of that difference may simply be the result of the types of batters that typically bat in those respective positions.

Not trying to pretend any of this proves anything conclusively. It does seem to suggest subtle differences as opposed to dramatic ones.

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

Gomez is actually seeing pitches at the lowest rate of his career (3.30 PPA). That in and of itself doesn't tell us much yet, but it somewhat dispels the notion that he's taking more pitches and 'waiting for his pitch to hit.'

 

Honestly, from just an 'eye test' point of view, I don't see anything different in his approach. He looks like he's making good contact on pitches that he swings at in the zone, and that's about the only difference that I can see.

[rluzinski]

Where he hits in the lineup has nothing to do with how he'll be pitched. Teams know the kind of hitter he his. They'll take the same approach against him no matter what.

I've seen this argument before and think it's a complete fallacy. You're telling me that with Weeks on first, Braun and Prince up after Gomez, he'll get the same pitches to hit in a 2-0, 3-1 count as he could hitting say 8th in the order?

 

I doubt anyone would argue such a thing. So now if you agree with that, then obviously there are variations of how you're pitched depending on who is coming up, and as such it's got SOMETHING to do with it. I wouldn't say it's an overwhelming factor, but it's more definitely relevant.

I'm sure it is a factor but I believe that the effect is overstated by the average baseball fan. You can always look at stuff like this as a starting point:

http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=71[/url]

An average #2 gets 3% more fastballs than a #8. So if a guy averages 4 pitches per PA, he'll get one extra fastball every 8 PA? Of course, it's hard to say how much of that difference is even dependent on batting order position. I think much of that difference may simply be the result of the types of batters that typically bat in those respective positions.

Not trying to pretend any of this proves anything conclusively. It does seem to suggest subtle differences as opposed to dramatic ones.

 

[logan82]

Gomez is actually seeing pitches at the lowest rate of his career (3.30 PPA). That in and of itself doesn't tell us much yet, but it somewhat dispels the notion that he's taking more pitches and 'waiting for his pitch to hit.'

 

Honestly, from just an 'eye test' point of view, I don't see anything different in his approach. He looks like he's making good contact on pitches that he swings at in the zone, and that's about the only difference that I can see.

We are starting to get close to being reliable on some stats.[/url]

 

 50 PA: Swing %

100 PA: Contact Rate

150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA

200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB

250 PA: Flyball Rate

300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB

500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate

550 PA: ISO[/pre]

[HiAndTight]

Gomez is actually seeing pitches at the lowest rate of his career (3.30 PPA). That in and of itself doesn't tell us much yet, but it somewhat dispels the notion that he's taking more pitches and 'waiting for his pitch to hit.'

 

Honestly, from just an 'eye test' point of view, I don't see anything different in his approach. He looks like he's making good contact on pitches that he swings at in the zone, and that's about the only difference that I can see.

The eye test tells something very different for me. But, it's a infintesimal sample size so far, so I'm not that concerned with the numbers. We're not even talking about the entire season, we're talking about maybe 10 days. And it's not the total PPA, it's the pitches he's swinging at. He's letting strikes go by early in the count because they're breaking balls, pitches he's more apt pop up or hit weakly.

 

I don't think it tells us anything yet, but it gives me SOME hope.

[HiAndTight]

Where he hits in the lineup has nothing to do with how he'll be pitched. Teams know the kind of hitter he his. They'll take the same approach against him no matter what.

I've seen this argument before and think it's a complete fallacy. You're telling me that with Weeks on first, Braun and Prince up after Gomez, he'll get the same pitches to hit in a 2-0, 3-1 count as he could hitting say 8th in the order?

 

I doubt anyone would argue such a thing. So now if you agree with that, then obviously there are variations of how you're pitched depending on who is coming up, and as such it's got SOMETHING to do with it. I wouldn't say it's an overwhelming factor, but it's more definitely relevant.

I'm sure it is a factor but the effect but I believe that the effect is overstated by the average baseball fan. You can always look at stuff like this as a starting point:

http://www.actasports.com/stats_detail/?StatId=71

An average #2 gets 3% more fastballs than a #8. So if a guy averages 4 pitches per PA, he'll get one extra fastball every 8 PA? Of course, it's hard to say how much of that difference is even dependent on batting order position. I think much of that difference may simply be the result of the types of batters that typically bat in those respective positions.

Not trying to pretend any of this proves anything conclusively. It does seem to suggest subtle differences as opposed to dramatic ones.

 

I see what you're saying, but I'm taking this even a step further, not just an average #2 or #8 hitter with the average #3/4 guys behind them, but in particular Gomez with Braun and Prince behind them.

 

I think it's exaggerated by most fans as well, as is most conventional baseball wisdom, but to say it doesn't exist, well...I think you'd have to be an idiot to pitch Gomez in the same way in each scenario.

[Baldkin]

I think no matter what the scenario is you throw Gomez breaking balls away and figure he'll swing at them, because he has done that his entire career. At least, if I'm a pitcher, that's what I'm doing, because it increases my chances of getting an out by over 9000.