Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 1)

[strawbossisevil]

His play today might be the worst I've EVER seen a major league baseball player look defensively.

Yeah he sure played awful when he saved the game for us with his diving play in the 8th. I'll agree the wicked hop in the 12th made him look silly, although he had to pick that perfect as Shane Victorino was hustling down the line. So he made, perhaps the best defensive play of the season, and a below average play on a wicked hop. I suppose that would qualify his play as the "Worst one would ever have seen", being objective and all.

Edit: Ender, they are useless in telling us what to expect going forward, but when all three major defensive sabermetric statistic companies all have his play as essentially league average, does that not, just possibly, suggest that his play to this point might have actually been a bit better than many on here expected at the beginning of the season? I think it does. It is looking at the data three ways, and each came up with the same result. All I heard when I posted BIP and Zone is that they were not UZR. Now I've posted UZR as well, and that still isn't good enough, in your mind, to draw even the slightest conclusion.

[danzig6767]

I'm adding statistics to a discussion. My point in doing so is to demonstrate that Betancourt has actually been playing better than expected to this point in the season in the field (all of the defensive sabermetrics are in agreement on this to this point). I'm not saying I expect it to continue, I'm just adding some stats some had called for earlier in this thread in our discussion of sabermetrics. That is called, adding something to the discussion. So many have posted about how terrible Betancourt has been so far this season, yet the go-to stats that would typically bear this out are saying otherwise. If you want to throw out all of the defensive sabermetric statistics (UZR, Zone, BIS etc) by claiming "small sample", fine.

 

If that is the type of posting that you think ought not be included on this forum, legitimate discussion of stats and figures (instead of angry ranting)...I don't know what this forum is actually here for, as I can get all of my daily ranting on the JSOnline blogs.

So by your logic Straw, unless anyone making a post that doesn't include a statistic next to it, that means it's not "adding something to the discussion"? What we see happening on the field with Betancourt or any player for that matter should be off limits and included as just the rantings of irrational fans, even if we also have years statistical data to back up what we are seeing? All at the same time you keep popping into this thread telling us what you see isn't as bad, and you have 15 games of data to back you up. Don't you see how ridiculous this makes your position sound Straw.

 

If anyone is acting like the JSonline posters you're complaining about, it is you. You're posts are no different than anyone else in this thread. You telling us what you think you see, just as others have, the only difference being that others are more confident in using data accumulated over years on Betancourt instead of the 15 games of data you continually keep trying to make us believe has more or any value. But you're the lone rational guy trying to save others here from reading uninformed rants. Please.

[Mr QL]

Maybe if venting is spilling over into other threads, they should bring back the vent thread.

[strawbossisevil]

That's absurd, I never said someone MUST add a statistic to the discussion. I think Ennder's additions to this discussion have been fine, even if we don't agree. He even did admit earlier in the discussion that the BIS statistic did have some relevance when considering objectively how a player has done on the season to this point (although, he and others were mentioning repeatedly how Zone wasn't as good as UZR, so I added that to the discussion when it became available).

 

I think baseball is a sport in which the eyes easily deceive. For example, the difference between a good batter and an average batter is getting one more base-hit for every 20 at bats. I personally think a lot of people came into this season with the argument that Betancourt was one of the worst fielders in MLB history firmly engrained in their minds. It is only natural for people to look for things that confirm their previous held beliefs about a player. I also don't think people instinctively have a good grasp of what average defense looks like at SS. We've been spoiled in Milwaukee of having two top notch SS in a row. Yuni to this point has been no Escobar or Hardy, but objectively the stats are suggesting that he has been fairly close to league average.

 

Once again, that doesn't give an indicator of what we should expect going forward from Yuni. I haven't claimed that it would, nor would I (based on his history of stats that you claim I'm ignoring). But if we want to be objective, the sabermetrics to this point claim he's been essentially average, and they are far more objective than your eyes or my eyes.

[Robideaux]

but objectively the stats are suggesting that he has been fairly close to league average.

 

But if we want to be objective, the sabermetrics to this point claim he's been essentially average, and they are far more objective than your eyes or my eyes.

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you don't understand the stats you are quoting. You think you are being "objective," but the stats you are constantly referencing are little more than random statistical noise at this point. "Small sample size" isn't simply an excuse to ignore something that doesn't fit the narrative.

[logan82]

LouisEly[/b]]So who are you going to trade to upgrade the position - Rogers, Rivas, Peralta, or Heckathorn? Those are pretty much the only trade options left (until Thornburg is a year post-draft).

I have to admit I am a little concerned with how little we have of value to trade. That is what is really aggravating. We could have signed a FA without giving up anything. If Betancourt was limited to only playing against LHP that would be huge. He still isn't a good hitter but he is much better against LHP. Punto would have been a nice platoon partner for Betancourt.

[strawbossisevil]

but objectively the stats are suggesting that he has been fairly close to league average.

 

But if we want to be objective, the sabermetrics to this point claim he's been essentially average, and they are far more objective than your eyes or my eyes.

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you don't understand the stats you are quoting. You think you are being "objective," but the stats you are constantly referencing are little more than random statistical noise at this point. "Small sample size" isn't simply an excuse to ignore something that doesn't fit the narrative.

I believe I understand them just fine, I've read up on them extensively and am familiar with how they work. I think a system, such as BIS, while as Stevo pointed out might have its flaws, will be far more objective in its assessment of a player's defense than the human mind can figure based on recollected memory that is highly susceptible to biases.

Some would say batting average is "random statistical noise" at this point. But I can use it to say that Plush has played out of his mind on offense to start the season, while Gomez has been awful at the plate. That says nothing about what can be expected of them going forward, it simply is an objective look at where their statistics currently stand.

[wcswimmer712]

Let us look forward to the SS who will be free agents after the 2011 season: Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Rafael Furcal, JJ Hardy (return to brewtown?), Omar Infante, Ronny Cedeno, Marco Scutaro, Jack Wilson.

I would take any of these guys over Betancourt. Let's hope Doug has had his eye on one of these guys since the Greinke trade. Any of the first three I would salivate over..

EDIT: **first four** (gotta include JJ in that)

[danzig6767]

That's absurd, I never said someone MUST add a statistic to the discussion. I think Ennder's additions to this discussion have been fine, even if we don't agree. He even did admit earlier in the discussion that the BIS statistic did have some relevance when considering objectively how a player has done on the season to this point (although, he and others were mentioning repeatedly how Zone wasn't as good as UZR, so I added that to the discussion when it became available).

 

I think baseball is a sport in which the eyes easily deceive. For example, the difference between a good batter and an average batter is getting one more base-hit for every 20 at bats. I personally think a lot of people came into this season with the argument that Betancourt was one of the worst fielders in MLB history firmly engrained in their minds. It is only natural for people to look for things that confirm their previous held beliefs about a player. I also don't think people instinctively have a good grasp of what average defense looks like at SS. We've been spoiled in Milwaukee of having two top notch SS in a row. Yuni to this point has been no Escobar or Hardy, but objectively the stats are suggesting that he has been fairly close to league average.

 

Once again, that doesn't give an indicator of what we should expect going forward from Yuni. I haven't claimed that it would, nor would I (based on his history of stats that you claim I'm ignoring). But if we want to be objective, the sabermetrics to this point claim he's been essentially average, and they are far more objective than your eyes or my eyes.

Nobody is saying you aren't free to your opinions about Betancourt. What i and others have an issue with is your ridiculous holier than thou attitude as if people disagreeing with you on Yuni are only coming to those conclusions through mindless hate for him even though you've stated that in your eye test so far he hasn't been bad and you're also using statistical data that most would find extremely flawed given the small sample.

 

Plus, nobody has said that Betancourt has by himself killed the team with his defense. All that has been stated is that many here read all the consensus of negative opinions towards Betancourt by scouts/fans of his previous teams and read how defensive statistical data comprised over his last few years said he was a shortstop with terrible range. So we as Brewer fans have got to see him play 16 games and many of us see how poor his lateral agility is, thus it makes us not have any reason to doubt the very negative opinions of scouts/fans of his previous teams and the negative statistical data. This combined with his bad hitting really concerns us going forward since we could end up being in a close race for the playoffs.

 

Then you come riding in on your high horse acting like the many of us who think the lack of lateral agility he's shown confirms Betancourt's negative views by nearly everyone in baseball are being irrational fans, all the while the data you keep posting to try and prove this point not only wouldn't be thought of as worth much of anything in such a small sample by those deeply involved with statistical analysis, they'd side with us in saying the Brewers should very concerned about Yuni going forward.

 

Oh well, i know this site strongly discourages pissing matches back and forth between posters, so i'll pass on responding any further to your posts given we obviously disagree on what we've seen of Betancourt so far and like others here, i don't find anything compelling at all in 15 games worth of defensive statistics.

[Pointer1VB]

http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/duty_calls.png

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

As far as your response about complaining. I get venting about something you don't like every now and then. I get that. But rehashing the same complaint over...and over...and over...and over...ad nauseum is what I and others find so ridiculous. If you want to just rehash something you've already posted, open a Word doc, type out your vent, and then delete it and spare the rest of us the same old tired complaint. If you have something new to add to the discussion, by all means, add it. Part of having an intelligent discussion is getting past the...me angry...must type anger...type post.

I have kept my complaining about Betencourt in one thread, this thread. What gets tired is being told what kind of fan I'm supposed to be. Or being told to 'accept' that we have a terrible shortstop. No, I don't accept that. I'm not rampaging through the forum (or .........'raging') about Betencourt being our shortstop. it's in THIS thread, the thread that's about Betencourt. I don't see why that's so offensive to your sensibilities.

 

I love the 'me angry, must keep typing' nonsense. As many times as the Betencourt detractors have complained about him, you and others have just as many times came right back and defended him, but that's ok?

 

It's not like the Betencourt detractors are making things up when we cite statistics and scouting reports that all point to the fact that the guy sucks. If that's 'angry', I'd hate to see REALLY angry in your opinion.

 

This is a FORUM, where people will discuss and even debate, and sometimes debates become heated. I haven't seen any name calling here or derogatory remarks (except yours, your 'me angry' nonsense). As much as people complain about Betencourt, I see COMPLAINING about dissenting opinions. Me personally? I don't want to post on a forum where everyone just consents that we're all fans of a team, and never complain about anything.

 

"That guy's good!"

"Quite right!"

"I agree!"

"Indeed!"

"Oh yes!"

 

Yeah, that sounds fun.

[strawbossisevil]

danzig6767]

Nobody is saying you aren't free to your opinions about Betancourt. What i and others have an issue with is your ridiculous holier than thou attitude as if people disagreeing with you on Yuni are only coming to those conclusions through mindless hate for him even though you've stated that in your eye test so far he hasn't been bad and you're also using statistical data that most would find extremely flawed given the small sample.

No, I think the opinions are more based on his previous years stats that were repeated ad nauseum before the season began. The fact that many think he has been horrible defensively to this point of the season is a self fulfilling prophecy. Any objective statistic to this point says he's been better than expected (with the expected being worst MLB defender at SS).

Plus, nobody has said that Betancourt has by himself killed the team with his defense. All that has been stated is that many here read all the consensus of negative opinions towards Betancourt by scouts/fans of his previous teams and read how defensive statistical data comprised over his last few years said he was a shortstop with terrible range. So we as Brewer fans have got to see him play 16 games and many of us see how poor his lateral agility is, thus it makes us not have any reason to doubt the very negative opinions of scouts/fans of his previous teams and the negative statistical data. This combined with his bad hitting really concerns us going forward since we could end up being in a close race for the playoffs.

Strawman. I never suggested anyone is saying that Betancourt is killing the team by himself. And thank you for explaining why so many here have negative opinions of his defense. I hadn't been able to gather that to this point. For the record, I've stated that I want a replacement as much as anyone else here, while objectively his defense has been fine to this point, I don't believe it will continue that way. Although his bat will certainly be better than he has shown thus far, based on career numbers. Although, objectively - looking at this year's stats, I can say that he has been awful with the bat to this point.

Then you come riding in on your high horse acting like the many of us who think the lack of lateral agility he's shown confirms Betancourt's negative views by nearly everyone in baseball are being irrational fans, all the while the data you keep posting to try and prove this point not only wouldn't be thought of as worth much of anything in such a small sample by those deeply involved with statistical analysis, they'd side with us in saying the Brewers should very concerned about Yuni going forward.

He does have a limited lateral agility, although to this point the stats suggest he has been able to get to balls that in years past he wouldn't have gotten to. He has 11 OOZ plays to this point, which is also an objective statistic that is being totally disregarded. Also if you've read any of my posts I've never suggested he will keep it up or that the Brewers shouldn't be concerned - the defense he displayed in previous seasons is plenty of reason to be concerned about what can be expected from Yuni over a full season, I'm just saying...perhaps we've been a bit tougher on the guy than is realistic. So much of this response is strawman, strawman, strawman. It seems clear that you don't understand my argument if you honestly believe that I don't think the Brewers should be concerned about Yuni going forward.

[Tedaldtada]

Straw, do you understand the concept of statistical noise? Do you have any statistics based training or education?

[strawbossisevil]

I do understand the concept of statistical noise. That is why I am not sticking to one defensive statistic to support my argument. I can add to the "Fielder's Bible" defensive evaluation to the list of defensive statistics that suggest he has been about average defensively to this point. (Fielder's Bible has him at +2). I guess, even with the statistical noise, when the top four statistical models are all in agreement about Yuni's defense (statistics ranging from -.4 to +3), I find those statistics (when put together) to be a more objective impression of how Yuni has played this season than what can be gathered by the human eye that so often can be deceived or approach a player with bias. Is it perfect? No, but combining the objective stats I think is more objective and unbiased.

 

I view it essentially as one views looking at players' current OPS. It isn't likely to tell us much about what to expect of them going forward (career statistics are far more valuable in determining that), but it does give me an objective viewpoint of how they have performed this season.

 

I fully expect Yuni to struggle on the defensive side as the season progresses (based on his past statistics), I'll just side with the objective (rather than the subjective) when assessing how he's done. Even with the statistical noise, I think it paints a more accurate picture of a player than the eyes can.

[JohnBriggs12]

strawbossisevil wrote:

As far as your response about complaining. I get venting about something you don't like every now and then. I get that. But rehashing the same complaint over...and over...and over...and over...ad nauseum is what I and others find so ridiculous. If you want to just rehash something you've already posted, open a Word doc, type out your vent, and then delete it and spare the rest of us the same old tired complaint. If you have something new to add to the discussion, by all means, add it. Part of having an intelligent discussion is getting past the...me angry...must type anger...type post.

I have kept my complaining about Betencourt in one thread, this thread. What gets tired is being told what kind of fan I'm supposed to be. Or being told to 'accept' that we have a terrible shortstop. No, I don't accept that. I'm not rampaging through the forum (or .........'raging') about Betencourt being our shortstop. it's in THIS thread, the thread that's about Betencourt. I don't see why that's so offensive to your sensibilities.

 

I love the 'me angry, must keep typing' nonsense. As many times as the Betencourt detractors have complained about him, you and others have just as many times came right back and defended him, but that's ok?

 

It's not like the Betencourt detractors are making things up when we cite statistics and scouting reports that all point to the fact that the guy sucks. If that's 'angry', I'd hate to see REALLY angry in your opinion.

 

This is a FORUM, where people will discuss and even debate, and sometimes debates become heated. I haven't seen any name calling here or derogatory remarks (except yours, your 'me angry' nonsense). As much as people complain about Betencourt, I see COMPLAINING about dissenting opinions. Me personally? I don't want to post on a forum where everyone just consents that we're all fans of a team, and never complain about anything.

 

"That guy's good!"

"Quite right!"

"I agree!"

"Indeed!"

"Oh yes!"

 

Yeah, that sounds fun.

It's "angry" when it's brought up on a daily basis. It's angry when we're told to ignore any positive defensive stat because it's early but we should take a low BA in the same amount of time to crucify his offense. It's "angry" that when any poster points out anything positive about Betancourt that it brings 10 posters out of the woodwork. It's angry when people say "he sucks" or he's "the worst ever" on a daily basis. That's completely over the top and not backed statistically. I have no problem with statistical analysis that shows that a player is deficient in some way and clearly Betancourt is. But what are deficiencies in one area (low OBP, doesn't work counts, etc.) can actually in certain situations (man on 3rd, less than 2 outs) be positives because that player puts the ball in play (as he did twice in last night's game), and gets the runner in from 3rd at a high percentage.

[greeg35]

we should take a low BA in the same amount of time to crucify his offense.

It's angry when people say "he sucks" or he's "the worst ever" on a daily basis. That's completely over the top and not backed statistically.

3115 PA's

.295

.390

.685

That looks like enough evidence to me to say that he sucks offensively.

[joepepsi]

Well, that was an awesome catch/double play last night. Sure, it was mostly luck, but still it was awesome.

 

Just watching the games so far this year, it's looks to me like Ryan Braun is much worse in LF than Yuni is at ss.

[Tedaldtada]

we should take a low BA in the same amount of time to crucify his offense.

 

Or you could refer to the thousands of career at bats like 'we' keep suggesting.

 

It's angry when people say "he sucks" or he's "the worst ever" on a daily basis. That's completely over the top and not backed statistically.

 

It is not only backed statistically, it is backed by professional MLB scouts and millions of fans across the country.

 

But what are deficiencies in one area (low OBP, doesn't work counts, etc.) can actually in certain situations (man on 3rd, less than 2 outs) be positives because that player puts the ball in play (as he did twice in last night's game), and gets the runner in from 3rd at a high percentage.

 

I would love to see one relevant statistic that backs this assertion. Please.

[COBrewerfan]

His play today might be the worst I've EVER seen a major league baseball player look defensively.

 

Did you just start watching baseball this season? This may sum up how the Yuni haters see his play. A bad hop play is seen as the worst ever. So you either have seen very little baseball or just look for ways to kick the guy.

[Invader3K]

Well, that was an awesome catch/double play last night. Sure, it was mostly luck, but still it was awesome.

 

Just watching the games so far this year, it's looks to me like Ryan Braun is much worse in LF than Yuni is at ss.

Braun has seemed to make some head scratching decisions lately. It seems like he's falling into the trap of "playing hard to mask deficiencies." Stuff like that throw to home last night, and that useless dive on Sunday. Reminds me of Eric Byrnes out there.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Well, that was an awesome catch/double play last night. Sure, it was mostly luck, but still it was awesome.

 

Just watching the games so far this year, it's looks to me like Ryan Braun is much worse in LF than Yuni is at ss.

Braun has completely, unbelievably stunk up the joint in LF this year. Still, a bad left fielder won't (shouldn't) cost you as many runs as a bad SS. That's the crux of the argument here. A bad SS can cost you more runs than just about any other position.

[jjfanec]

Yuni is bad on defense but right now who do we have that is good? Gomez and that is about it. Fielder is a butcher, Weeks has good moments than very bad ones, Casey is what he is at 3rd, Braun tries to do too much and makes bad decisions, etc. This is a bad defensive team and we knew it coming in. I think the complaints on Yuni go over the top a little, but he is the one guy we can replace (and Kotsay but that will happen soon enough). Weeks, Fielder, Casey, and Braun can all hit so they are not coming out. Yuni's bat is not good so if we have a no hit SS it would be nice if he played defense well. I remember thinking the same thing about Escobar last year. The guy could not hit but his defense is what disappointed me.

[rluzinski]

I do understand the concept of statistical noise. That is why I am not sticking to one defensive statistic to support my argument. I can add to the "Fielder's Bible" defensive evaluation to the list of defensive statistics that suggest he has been about average defensively to this point. (Fielder's Bible has him at +2). I guess, even with the statistical noise, when the top four statistical models are all in agreement about Yuni's defense (statistics ranging from -.4 to +3), I find those statistics (when put together) to be a more objective impression of how Yuni has played this season than what can be gathered by the human eye that so often can be deceived or approach a player with bias.

It's more objective but not necessarily better. And you are combining several defensive systems that use the same or similar data to come up with their metrics. I don't think that decreases the uncertainty at all. That's like saying that a batter's OPS, WAR and wOBP are all good after a week, so perhaps a week of data is good enough.

This is all very simple. It's April 19th. Whatever has happened so far this season tells us very little, whether it be stats or scouting. Yuni has been in the league for awhile now, so there is plenty of data to look at to formulate an informed opinion with regard to his abilities.

[strawbossisevil]

It's more objective but not necessarily better. And you are combining several defensive systems that use the same or similar data to come up with their metrics. I don't think that decreases the uncertainty at all. That's like saying that a batter's OPS, WAR and wOBP are all good after a week, so perhaps a week of data is good enough.

This is all very simple. It's April 19th. Whatever has happened so far this season tells us very little, whether it be stats or scouting. Yuni has been in the league for awhile now, so there is plenty of data to look at to formulate an informed opinion with regard to his abilities.

Right, there is no doubt that ability wise, he is likely going to finish below average. That is not what I, or anyone else making this argument, have been asserting. We are merely stating that based on the objective data compiled by four different statistical models (all who seek to be the best objective measures of defense). Based on that, we can say that Yuni had a few good weeks, nothing more, nothing less.

The only reason I even make that point is to show that many have been over-critical in regard to his performance to this point in the season. My goal isn't to try to extrapolate what we can expect of him going forward, or to show his "real ability". If I want to figure those things out, I agree that it is best to look at the career statistics.

I see this as the equivalent of saying, "Plush has really started off the season hitting better than I expected." I'm not suggesting that what we've seen from Plush reflects his actual ability, nor that what he's done in the opening weeks of the season can be expected to be continued throughout the season.

[joepepsi]

Well, that was an awesome catch/double play last night. Sure, it was mostly luck, but still it was awesome.

 

Just watching the games so far this year, it's looks to me like Ryan Braun is much worse in LF than Yuni is at ss.

Braun has completely, unbelievably stunk up the joint in LF this year. Still, a bad left fielder won't (shouldn't) cost you as many runs as a bad SS. That's the crux of the argument here. A bad SS can cost you more runs than just about any other position.

You're right, of course. And Braun more than makes up for it with his bat. Still, I've two horrible throws to the plate from him in the last week, the over shoulder bobble-"i've got it...I ain't got it", etc. In the same regard, Prince has made two horrible throws to the plate, in what, the last 2 (3?) games?

 

Yuni may be terrible, and it's at a crucial defensive position, but a lot of the rest of the defense is similarly awful. A lot of the mistakes I'm seeing seem like stuff that should be correctable through better effort and experience. The problem is, this team isn't inexperienced anymore. They should be making better decisions. I'm not seeing any progress in this area.