Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 1)

[danzig6767]

I'm in group 3 but I still don't agree he has been serviceable~. He hasn't made any errors yet but unless the ball is hit directly at him he doesn't make a play. He is like watching Ray Durham that last year he was with the Brewers, I cringe every time the ball is hit his way because I know if the ball isn't directly at him it is a single.

Yep

 

The numerous defensive shifts has often worked out as the coaches planned, which in turn made Bentacourt look better because multiple balls ended up being hit right at him instead of him not being able to range over for the balls up the middle. Over the course of the season though, his lack of range will be more apparent to those who so far aren't noticing it as much.

[logan82]

Let's call it 3a then. He hasn't been serviceable. His defense hasn't passed the eye test. Weeks was a 16.8 UZR/150 defender in the little time he played in 2009. Defensive metrics can be extremely misleading over small samples.

[rluzinski]

So, based on pretty much whatever defensive sabermetrics you use, Betancourt has been fine defensively so far this season. If it were just one of those sabermetrics giving him a good rating it would be suspect, but when two or three metrics are coming down at about the same place (2-3 runs saved), it means he had a pretty solid first dozen games in the field.

Like I said earlier, no it doesn't. Defensive metrics are pretty much useless in such a small sample. They can't even really estimate with any confidence if they have played well, much less if they are good. There is just too much uncertainty in estimating how often a particular ball-in-play should be converted into outs. I would trust personal observation more than any defensive stats at this point.

Also, I didn't think defensive shifts were thrown out of the sample but I could be wrong on that.

[endaround]

No you can't. This isn't like saying a player hit .400 over 11 games. This is like taking the speed of the ball leaving the bat and estimating what the player's batting average over 11 games is.

[TheCrew]

No you can't. This isn't like saying a player hit .400 over 11 games. This is like taking the speed of the ball leaving the bat and estimating what the player's batting average over 11 games is.

Tried to delete it because I didn't want to get into it. Stats say Betancourt has played well defensively over 11 games - to suggest that those stats are invalid because it's only 11 games...... well, don't agree with it. Fine if you want to say that it's a small sample size and his prior history suggest he won't keep it up, but to suggest that the stats are inaccurate because it's a small sample size is wrong imo.

[logan82]

rluzinski wrote:

Also, I didn't think defensive shifts were thrown out of the sample but I could be wrong on that.

This is what I found.

 

Other Infield Positioning

Left-handed and right-handed batters are treated separately since

infielders and outfielders are positioned differently for each. Infield

ground balls are also handled separately for two categories of batters:

Above-average speed and below-average speed. All batters are put into

one or the other category, using a Bill James type of speed score. It

is assumed that infielders must play a little shallower and are more

hurried in general with a faster runner at the plate. Also, the data

includes whether a shift (a generic one, in the opinion of the

“stringer” – the person recording the data) was on, and whether the

shift likely affected the play at all. If it did – again, according to

the “stringer”- then the play is ignored.

 

[rluzinski]

No you can't. This isn't like saying a player hit .400 over 11 games. This is like taking the speed of the ball leaving the bat and estimating what the player's batting average over 11 games is.

Tried to delete it because I didn't want to get into it. Stats say Betancourt has played well defensively over 11 games - to suggest that those stats are invalid because it's only 11 games...... well, don't agree with it. Fine if you want to say that it's a small sample size and his prior history suggest he won't keep it up, but to suggest that the stats are inaccurate because it's a small sample size is wrong imo.

It's not necessarily wrong or right, it just has a huge level of uncertainty. I obviously don't know the exact numbers but it would be like saying saying Betancourt has been +2 runs defensively, 10 runs to 2 standard deviations.

[monty57]

If shifts are ignored, then Weeks and Betancourt won't have any data at the end of the year... they seem to have a shift on every play.

[TooLiveBrew]

Thanks for finding that logan. Not sure what exactly put it in my head that shifts weren't accounted for, I swear it was a discussion on BF lately. I just got it wrong, though.

[danzig6767]

I hate Yuni as much as everyone else and that wasn't a good throw in the 10th inning, but it wasn't way off line. Am i alone in thinking that the vast majority of other firstbaseman who aren't short with short arms would likely have caught that ball?

[logan82]

I hate Yuni as much as everyone else and that wasn't a good throw in the 10th inning, but it wasn't way off line. Am i alone in thinking that the vast majority of other firstbaseman who aren't short with short arms would likely have caught that ball?

No, if you have been posting in the Gamel thread myself and others have stated that we think Gamel will help defense at 1B and all the other infield spots.

[sveumrules]

Definitely not Danzig, in fact I think Prince is probably one of the only first basemen in the league who can't reach that throw.

 

I love Prince for many reasons but I really hope he is gone after this year so that every throw to first doesn't have the slimmest of margins for error due to his stature.

[DHonks]

Prince is likely the worst defensive regular 1st basemen in the last 20-30 years. He has already been responsible for his infielders having at least 3 extra errors this year, directly costing us in at least 2 games. His offense is great, but Gamel's first day at 1b he likely will do better than Prince after all these years

[Oldcity]

I worked at BIS in Pennsylvania a couple years ago. Shifts are not counted, but that's only if the stringer notices them. Trust me, human error comes into play in BIS's numbers more than they'd want people to realize. I like the company overall and think they do very good things, but I could go on for awhile about things they could improve.

[JoeHova]

Prince is likely the worst defensive regular 1st basemen in the last 20-30 years.

This is hyperbole. He's probably not even the worst defensive Brewer 1st baseman of the last decade, Sexson holds that honor. And he was certainly on the other end of the height spectrum from Prince, which should show people that height is not necessarily that relevant to defensive prowess at 1st base. Jason Giambi was easily worse. Mo Vaughn. Paul Konerko.

Regardless, the error was Betancourt's fault. Let's not let a discussion of Prince distract us from the fact that Betancourt's heedless lollygagging cost the team a game.

[HiAndTight]

Prince is likely the worst defensive regular 1st basemen in the last 20-30 years. He has already been responsible for his infielders having at least 3 extra errors this year, directly costing us in at least 2 games. His offense is great, but Gamel's first day at 1b he likely will do better than Prince after all these years

I don't want to be put in a position to defend Prince, but that's just way overstating it.

 

Edit-I see the post above me addressed it, but I would also throw Adam Dunn in there as an obvious one.

[Funketown]

I'd love to rag on Betancourt a bit more, but that throw was 95% on Fielder. It wasn't a good throw, but I'm betting a typical 1B makes that catch 90-95% of the time.

 

But yes, that was a routine play and Betancourt should have hit the money.

[giffted1]

Regardless, the error was Betancourt's fault. Let's not let a discussion of Prince distract us from the fact that Betancourt's heedless lollygagging cost the team a game.

Prince sucks and that is Betancourt's fault? Betancourt's "lollygagging" should have gotten Werth out easily.

 

I'm not saying that Betancourt is a remotely good SS, but a first baseman needs to make that catch.

 

http://i75.photobucket.com/albums/i283/Giffted/PrinceFail.png

[shelmark]

So now we are going to blame Prince, for not being taller? This is ridiculous. I can't believe all the hate for Betancourt on this site. He is clearly not on par with the great JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar, but so many on this site jump on every single one of his mistakes. He is what he is, a slow fielder with Hardyesque range, and an extremely undisciplined hitter. We have NO replacement anywhere in sight, so can we move along. I blame Macha.

[davego]

I blame Ed Donatell.

[giffted1]

So now we are going to blame Prince, for not being taller? This is ridiculous. I can't believe all the hate for Betancourt on this site. He is clearly not on par with the great JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar, but so many on this site jump on every single one of his mistakes. He is what he is, a slow fielder with Hardyesque range, and an extremely undisciplined hitter. We have NO replacement anywhere in sight, so can we move along. I blame Macha.

I blame Prince for not stretching from the ball side of the base. He didn't even need to come off the base to catch that.

 

First Base 101 teaches you not to set up for your stretch until the ball is in the air. Apparently Prince went to DH 101 instead.

[Tbadder]

If Fielder comes off the base, which he clearly should have, then it's a one base error at most were still playing. At best Werth runs into Prince and dies an untimely and tragic death.

[hurricanecrush]

Here's what it boils down to, IMO.

 

There's not 2, but 3 camps in the Betencourt debate.

 

1.) There's the camp of people who despite his large body of work that suggests he sucks, thinks we should give him some time to show that he can improve. Many of these people don't think he WILL improve (though some do), but they want to give him a chance, nonetheless. The fact that he's been steady defensively the first 11 games of the season are a beacon of hope for this camp, and some (not all, some) seem to think that this points to him being better than his large body of work would indicate. There are some in this camp also who realize Betencourt sucks, and isn't likely to improve, but because he technically is the best SS on the roster, don't have a problem with him playing full time, despite the negative value he'll likely bring over a full season.

 

2.) There's the camp of people who despite the fact that his defense has passed the eye test for some to this point of the season, are still saying he sucks, want the guy to fail as quickly as possible so Melvin will find a replacement for him, and are not going to give him any credit for positive contributions at all. A 2 for 4 night with a few RBI is not going to impress this camp. It's a statistical outlier in what will surely be another crappy season for Betencourt, period, end of story. These people may not even be objective about a nice play, saying he was 'positioned properly', and groan if he hits a homerun, as that just means it'll be that much longer til he finally fails, and Melvin has no choice but to replace him.

 

3.) There's the camp of people who recognize Yuni for what he's been his whole career. A low OBP, poor range defender with very little positive value. They realize he's been serviceable in the field so far this year, according to the statistics, but that any statistical defensive data to this point is such a small sample as to be nearly meaningless. This camp expects Betencourt to put up around a .675 -ish OPS, and be about -10 to -15 defensively, and would like to see him replaced. They'll root for the guy while he wears a Brewers uniform, but he's not a 'favorite' for this camp, and they'd just as soon bring someone in via trade or waiver to see if there's a no hit-slick glove guy that can fit the bill.

 

EVERYONE's falling into one of these 3 camps. We've been around and around and around and around on this guy, and nobody's argument is going to change. The defenders defend, the haters will hate, and nothing will change. I'm not at all suggesting that we no longer talk about it. It is a message board, after all. But maybe it'll make everyone's argument easier if they just say "I'm in group (1,2, or 3)!"

4.) There's the camp of people who despite his large body of work that suggests he sucks, thought we should give him some time to show that he can improve or that he isn't as bad as advertised. But after watching him for 11 games, have determined his range is and effort is pathetic. It's actually worse than anyone could have described. His defense and effort makes Ronnie Belliard look like the second coming of Ozzie Smith.

I will admit that I'm a homer and give my teams, GM's and managers a very long rope. I assume that they have more knowledge than I do, since they have spent their whole life dedicated to their craft, see the players every day, have access to film and scouting reports that I don't have access to... and I'm just a die hard fan that gets his info from the internet. I don't think stats are the be all and end all, I believe there are intangibles that can contribute to a players value.

But WOW... Betancourt SUCKS on defense and I have no idea what Melvin was thinking. I don't care what the defensive stats say this year, I can watch games and see that he has no athleticism and his effort is terrible. I can think of two two specific plays that jump out at me. One was the home opener on a roller to the SS side of 2nd base. The defense was playing straight up and Weeks almost got to the ball and Yuni never even took a step. Another was a game that Wolf was pitching. There was a chopper back through the box with a runner on first... a seemingly tailor made DP ball. Wolf reached up to make a stab at the ball but pulled his glove down, so he wouldn't screw up the double play. The only problem is that Yuni didn't even get close to the ball and it bounced into center for a single. It seems like once every game that I see a ball hit back up through the middle that I'd expect the SS to make a play on or at least get close... and he never even makes it in the picture.

He's just not a major league player. He could maybe play third but his bat isn't good enough. And even then, he'd only be an average defensive 3rd baseman, not something you should say about any shortstop. Give me a defensive whiz AA player with no bat and we would be better off.

[Funketown]

He is what he is, a slow fielder with Hardyesque range, and an extremely undisciplined hitter. We have NO replacement anywhere in sight, so can we move along.

What are you basing this on? Ask any scout or consult any defensive metric and you'll see that Betancourt has terrible range while Hardy has pretty decent range.

 

Calling Betancourt's range "Hardyesque" is like calling Wil Nieves' bat "Brian McCann-esque".

[TheCrew]

Regardless, the error was Betancourt's fault. Let's not let a discussion of Prince distract us from the fact that Betancourt's heedless lollygagging cost the team a game.

Yup, Gomez making an out on the bases with Braun coming up........... Narvy walking in runs.............. Prince hesitating and making a bad throw (worse than Betancourts's) none of that matters. It's all Betancourt's fault............

 

If we want to be fair, it's on both of them - Betancourt's throw was a little off, however 99% of 1b make that catch. Prince also had a chance to make a playoff moments later that could have kept the game alive.

 

McGehee has been worse in the field thus far and hasn't done squat with the bat and is suppose to be protecting prince.......... don't hear anyone calling for his head.