Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 1)

[strawbossisevil]

You can't judge defense with stats over such a small sample, you really do need to use the scouting angle for small samples.

 

You can't predict future defense nor overall defense with those small samples. You can judge his defense over the specific period of time he was putting up those numbers. Those numbers showed he got to a lot more out of zone balls than he traditionally does. Thus his objective measurements seem to be that of better defense than his past suggests. If the question is has his defense been a pleasant surprise so far based on the objective measurements I would say yes. If the question is do I expect it to last based on the objective measurements I would say no.

This is exactly my point. It shows that those complaining about how he has performed on defense to this point of the season have seriously been reaching and overly critical. That isn't to say that they won't have situations for legitimate criticism as the season wears on, but BF.net has been a bit quick with the trigger with Betancourt.

I for one, hope he continues to provide solid defense and prove us all wrong. If he could combine average defense with his bat, he wouldn't be nearly the liability we originally envisioned.

[Ennder]

This is exactly my point. It shows that those complaining about how he has performed on defense to this point of the season have seriously been reaching and overly critical. That isn't to say that they won't have situations for legitimate criticism as the season wears on, but BF.net has been a bit quick with the trigger with Betancourt.

 

But it doesn't, 11 games of defensive stats don't show anything at all. It takes 3 years of defense to give a strong stat based correlation, using less than 10% of a single season doesn't say anything at all, especially using the one you are using which is completely flawed in the first place. If he plays defense like this all year I expect him to cost us 9 or 10 runs on the year, he moves like a brick and has let a number of singles go right by him that most SS stop at the very least if not make the play on them.

[strawbossisevil]

It most certainly does.

 

To make a comparison, it is like if Craig Counsel were currently hitting .350 and an OPS of .900 after 11 games.

 

I can safely say that the objective statistics suggest that he has hit very well so far this season. It is an objective fact. All of the statistics bear that out.

 

The numbers have no correlation to future events because they are a small sample. That is where you are getting confused. We need 3 years of good info to predict what can be expected of a player in the future. With that amount of information, it becomes a fairly accurate for future predictions.

 

But, the objective numbers that we have can show how a player has performed, with no reflection towards the future and what can be expected in the future. They are facts. Counsel hit .350 (in my fictional example), Yuni has been slightly above average based on objective stats.

 

Now, if you want to guess how they'll do the rest of the season, yes, Yuni likely will cost us runs going forward. He has not done so, however, to this point. And if he were to play defense the way he has done so far in the first 12 games, he would be an average defender. Just like if Counsel (in my fictional example) were to hit .350 with an OPS in the .900s would be an all star/silver slugger winner if he were to keep that up all season.

[topper09er]

strawbossisevil wrote:

 

According to Baseball Reference, Yuni's defense to this point in the season has saved 2 runs above average, and is on pace to be +25 over the course of the whole season.

 

Total zone just assigns responsibility of each hit to different players weighed differently. Therefore it takes time to average out. For example, a hit to right is charged to the RF, even if it is a rope down the line hit so hard even Mr. Plush could not get to it. Over a small sample some guys are lucky by having most balls hit right at them or unlucky with balls that Ozzie Smith could not have turned into outs. Over a longer time the hits even out.

 

This number is also compared to average, and I am starting to think all the shifting the brewers are doing is really helping their defense a lot. Over the season this may cause Betancourt to field many more balls than the average SS, not because he is good at getting to them, but because the shift put him in a better position. This will cause him to look like an above average fielder, when he is clearly not.

[strawbossisevil]

That isn't based on Total Zone (did you look at the link????). It is based on Baseball Info Solutions. Total Zone has Yuni as +3 on the year.

[Ennder]

The numbers have no correlation to future events because they are a small sample. That is where you are getting confused. We need 3 years of good info to predict what can be expected of a player in the future. With that amount of information, it becomes a fairly accurate for future predictions.

 

No I'm not confused. The sample size is so small as to basically be random, it isn't telling you how he has played even. The way total zone is calculated is dubious in the first place but it is pretty much worthless with only small samples of data.

[strawbossisevil]

It isn't total zone!!!! Look at the link, read, then commence criticism. I don't think there is any objectivity in this discussion, however. You want the stats to read a certain way, and if they don't, criticize the objective statistics!

[topper09er]

That isn't based on Total Zone (did you look at the link????). It is based on Baseball Info Solutions. Total Zone has Yuni as +3 on the year.

Im not sure if you looked at the link? Baseball-reference uses total zone. If you hover over the +3 you cited it saying Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average.

 

[topper09er]

Baseball-reference uses Total Zone and Fangraphs uses UZR. That is why their WAR values are different.

[strawbossisevil]

Just checked again...and you need to go back to the link again, because it is there clear as day. Total Zone has him at +3. BIS has him at +2, which is what I quoted in my discussion above. Here is a hint for helping you find the BIS system of defensive metrics...look at the category that says "Rdrs".

 

Here is an explanation of BIS's system of defensive metrics and how it fixes many of the problems inherent to Total Zone.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/s...2%80%99-fielding-systems

 

The fact that both Total Zone and BIS's system that takes into account the type of hit both rate him positively so far this season suggest that he has done well, at least to this point, on defense.

[Ennder]

Yes that is total zone. Baseballreferense uses total zone if you mouse over the stat you'll see it. Also yes we are being objective, trying to cling to a stat that has no value over 11 games to make your argument isn't going to help. Total zone is not objective for 11 games, it is useless for 11 games. A player can be terrible in an 11 game sample and come out good on total zone because of the way it works.

 

We have all watched the games and most of us agree he has displayed a complete lack of range that is going to hurt the team over time. How good or bad he has been just depends on how much you personally weigh errors vs range in your mind.

 

Edit : Ok noticed the BIS line, that one actually has value for measuring how he has been this year because of the way they do it. I'm not a big fan of BIS in general but it is much more granular so that part of your argument does make sense at least.

[COBrewerfan]

Angel Sanchez

Willie Bloomquist

Jamey Carroll

Paul Janish

Ryan Theriot

Danny Espinosa

Miguel Tejada

Ian Desmond

Jason Bartlett

Asdrubal Cabrera

Jhonny Peralta

Alcides Escobar

Derek Jeter

Brendan Ryan

Elvis Andrus

JJ Hardy

Jed Lowrie

Marco Scutaro

 

I would trade Betancourt straight up for every single one of these names and for a number of the backups for these players as well. He really is just terrible and we could have replaced him for league minimum most likely.

Well I am thankful you are not the GM of this team with that comment. Because he has not been terrible and I am guessing you are just stuck with the comments you have read and are not changing your mind. He is on our team and will be here for this year. I will let this debate rest now and let all these stat debates go on. He will hit better than Escobar did last year and even if he has as many errors as Escobar, he will still be an upgrade over what Escobar did "last" year.

[strawbossisevil]

Yes that is total zone. Baseballreferense uses total zone if you mouse over the stat you'll see it. Also yes we are being objective, trying to cling to a stat that has no value over 11 games to make your argument isn't going to help. Total zone is not objective for 11 games, it is useless for 11 games. A player can be terrible in an 11 game sample and come out good on total zone because of the way it works.

 

We have all watched the games and most of us agree he has displayed a complete lack of range that is going to hurt the team over time. How good or bad he has been just depends on how much you personally weigh errors vs range in your mind.

 

Edit : Ok noticed the BIS line, that one actually has value for measuring how he has been this year because of the way they do it. I'm not a big fan of BIS in general but it is much more granular so that part of your argument does make sense at least.

Finally. I'm glad that we are least on the same page as to what we are discussing here. I figured the fact that I quoted the +2 mark of BIS, rather than Total Zone's +3 would have made that evident.

[Ennder]

Yeah I didn't even know they had BIS data on that site. For the longest time they only used total zone so I stopped looking at the site at all for defense.

[rluzinski]

Advanced defensive metrics over two weeks tells you very little about the skill of a player. It's like looking at a players batting line after a week. Furthermore, it barely even tells you WHAT has happened. These defensive metrics have an extra layer of uncertainty over a batting line. I single is a single, a double is a double. Nothing to argue about. Defensive metrics are different in that they attempt to estimate the odds of an average defender making a particular play. There is a certain level of uncertainty in the data used to make that estimate (trajectory and speed). As long as that uncertainty is unbiased, that uncertainty will wash away with a large enough sample. In a small sample, they don't, though.

 

Long story short, I wouldn't use two weeks of any play-by-play defensive system to tell me anything.

[TooLiveBrew]

Stats, scouts, & fans around the league agree Betancourt sucks. But hey, it's probably just those stat-nerd BF.net Brewers fans being too hard on a guy, right? Escobar is going to easily be more valuable than Batter Nine You Sucky this year.

 

 

EDIT: One thing I'd like to address is the comment that, 'Hey, we got Greinke, so I don't care that Betancourt came with him.' That's like saying you love your new Benz so much you wouldn't get its flat tire repaired.

[zzzmanwitz]

We aren't comparing the two this year. (At least I'm not) I'm comparing 2010 Escobar to 2011 Betancourt and I believe these will pretty much be the same.

[TheCrew]

Per fangraphs Yuni is 2 runs above average in the runs saved dept. on defense this year.... obviously very limited statistics available thus far but his defense really hasn't been that bad, I think people are still going off what they heard rather than what they are seeing.

[TooLiveBrew]

That defensive rate is due to the extreme shifting Roenicke has employed.

[TheCrew]

Stats, scouts, & fans around the league agree Betancourt sucks. But hey, it's probably just those stat-nerd BF.net Brewers fans being too hard on a guy, right? Escobar is going to easily be more valuable than Batter Nine You Sucky this year.

 

EDIT: One thing I'd like to address is the comment that, 'Hey, we got Greinke, so I don't care that Betancourt came with him.' That's like saying you love your new Benz so much you wouldn't get its flat tire repaired.

It's either a Benz with a flat tire or a 78 Volvo (i.e. Suppan) with nice new tires that aren't broken in all the way yet but have the potential to be great tires.

[TheCrew]

That defensive rate is due to the extreme shifting Roenicke has employed.

Pretty sure fangraphs does not include defensive shift plays in it's stats - could be wrong on that, but I swore I read that somewhere in the past.

[strawbossisevil]

So, based on pretty much whatever defensive sabermetrics you use, Betancourt has been fine defensively so far this season. If it were just one of those sabermetrics giving him a good rating it would be suspect, but when two or three metrics are coming down at about the same place (2-3 runs saved), it means he had a pretty solid first dozen games in the field.

 

These are objective statistics, so while there may be a bit more uncertainty than say a batting average, when all metrics are saying the same thing I think it is safe to say that Betancourt has played better than advertised to this point. I also think it shows that many of those who have been criticizing his every move need are being unrealistic about what is "average" defense.

 

Betancourt probably won't be able to sustain these numbers (based on his previous years), but if he somehow is capable of doing that, it will make him a much more palatable option until we are able to bring someone else in via trade at mid-season.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Here's what it boils down to, IMO.

 

There's not 2, but 3 camps in the Betencourt debate.

 

1.) There's the camp of people who despite his large body of work that suggests he sucks, thinks we should give him some time to show that he can improve. Many of these people don't think he WILL improve (though some do), but they want to give him a chance, nonetheless. The fact that he's been steady defensively the first 11 games of the season are a beacon of hope for this camp, and some (not all, some) seem to think that this points to him being better than his large body of work would indicate. There are some in this camp also who realize Betencourt sucks, and isn't likely to improve, but because he technically is the best SS on the roster, don't have a problem with him playing full time, despite the negative value he'll likely bring over a full season.

 

2.) There's the camp of people who despite the fact that his defense has passed the eye test for some to this point of the season, are still saying he sucks, want the guy to fail as quickly as possible so Melvin will find a replacement for him, and are not going to give him any credit for positive contributions at all. A 2 for 4 night with a few RBI is not going to impress this camp. It's a statistical outlier in what will surely be another crappy season for Betencourt, period, end of story. These people may not even be objective about a nice play, saying he was 'positioned properly', and groan if he hits a homerun, as that just means it'll be that much longer til he finally fails, and Melvin has no choice but to replace him.

 

3.) There's the camp of people who recognize Yuni for what he's been his whole career. A low OBP, poor range defender with very little positive value. They realize he's been serviceable in the field so far this year, according to the statistics, but that any statistical defensive data to this point is such a small sample as to be nearly meaningless. This camp expects Betencourt to put up around a .675 -ish OPS, and be about -10 to -15 defensively, and would like to see him replaced. They'll root for the guy while he wears a Brewers uniform, but he's not a 'favorite' for this camp, and they'd just as soon bring someone in via trade or waiver to see if there's a no hit-slick glove guy that can fit the bill.

 

EVERYONE's falling into one of these 3 camps. We've been around and around and around and around on this guy, and nobody's argument is going to change. The defenders defend, the haters will hate, and nothing will change. I'm not at all suggesting that we no longer talk about it. It is a message board, after all. But maybe it'll make everyone's argument easier if they just say "I'm in group (1,2, or 3)!"

[Ennder]

I'm in group 3 but I still don't agree he has been serviceable~. He hasn't made any errors yet but unless the ball is hit directly at him he doesn't make a play. He is like watching Ray Durham that last year he was with the Brewers, I cringe every time the ball is hit his way because I know if the ball isn't directly at him it is a single.

[greeg35]

Sounds like it would make for an excellent poll. I'm in 2, get him out of there! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif