Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 1)

[Funketown]

a discussion/argument over worst thread in site history would be far more entertaining than this: let's do that instead.

Done and done.

[mkm13]

The thing that most bothers me is some people take the WAR and UZR rankings too literally. They see a number and run with it, before evaulating how accurate it is. They see that Yuni ranks terrible in this and therefore, that makes them the worst player in the league. While I am not saying Yuni is good (I have said multiple times he is not), I do not think the UZR rankings are accurate enough to say he is the worst. There is a small gap between him and where the 30th worst player is (or the bottom 10%). Just read the link below.http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/

 

Way too many assumptions and projections to be accurate to the point some people make them. I am a numbers guy, so I love looking at the data and I think they can be a good tool to use, but some people take it too far. I think the effort they do to determine UZR is great and how they analyze it as great..it makes logical sense. THEY understand it is not as accurate as some here make it. Generally, IMO a players performace year to year should be more consistent on defense than offense. It is like that for most sports. Offense can be streaky. Defense generally is always there. Given that, it is a red flag to me that even in that article it says it takes 2 years of UZR data to equal 1 year of OPS data in terms of year to year correlation. I won't disagree that Yuni has poor range for a SS, but I will disagree that the data available will give you the information to tell you he is the worst player in baseball. That is my biggest problem. There is not much difference between where he and Melky Cabrera are and a guy who is ranked in the bottom 10%. Everyone wants an exact number or ranking, but I do not believe the data available is accurate enough to give definite rankings like many throw out there.

 

For me, since it is so close between Yuni and the other SS options that were available, I will give the brewers organization the benefit of the doubt, since they scout well beyond any of us actually do, and they actually deal with the players first hand. Again, I will say I think Yuni is not a good major league SS...but I think some people take the numbers too far. I think they are a good bench mark, and I love using them as a tool...but I do not think it is accurate to look at Yuni's numbers and automatically label him as the worst player in baseball. Given how close so many players are...and the variables in data, it is not that clear.

 

If you wanted to say Yuni is in the bottom 10% of full time position players in baseball, fine..I would say you are probably correct. I do have a problem with people labeling him the worst and wanting him to be replaced...when there is really no clear better options available.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm trying to enact a personal ban from this topic, but that was one heckuva play he made in the first inning today. I would love to see more like it.

[dlk9s]

Guys, we've gotten this thread halfway to 1,000 posts. I am confident we can take it all the way.

[fondybrewfan]

The "We Traded for Grienke" Thread was 30 pages; a thread about the crappiness or lackthereof of Yuni is 26 pages. Does anyone else see a problem with this?

[joepepsi]

I've skipped a few pages here. Has anyone mentioned Alcides Escobar is sitting on a .516 OPS as of May 2nd?

[Thurston Fluff]

Second lowest of all qualified shortstops. Kind of sucks because I liked him and want KC to do well. I wonder how much the 120 OPS point difference between him and Yuni is negated by the superior defense of Escobar. Not being snarky either. I really do wonder what the threshold is when terrible offense negates great defense.

[1992casey]

Escobar has been mentioned in 49 posts in this topic. His 2011 offensive performance has definitely been part of that.

[monty57]

Good post, mkm13. While there have been great strides forward in statistical studies in baseball over the past decade or so, I think many take them far too seriously. Remember, Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations" was written in 1776, and some of the greatest mathematical minds of the past 200 years have opined on the study of economics, and it's still far from an exact science, and often strikes heated debates as to whose methods (mostly based on mathematics and statistics) are correct. The so-called "advanced defensive metrics" have only been around a few years and will likely look very different ten or twenty years from now than they do today. To attempt to put an exact figure (down to the tenths or hundreths of a run over a season) on defense, when most of the data is subject to individuals' opinions is hardly going to be exact. It is interesting and helpful, but statements such as "Betancourt allowed 15.125 more runs than Player x" are laughable.

 

Maybe 100 years from now, the John Maynard Keynes and Milton Friedman of the SABR universe will have great debates as to why the Cubs still haven't won a World Series.

[The Truth]

Guys, we've gotten this thread halfway to 1,000 posts. I am confident we can take it all the way.

That is inevitable unless Yuniesky gets traded or DFA'd or benched. Good Lord, I hope this thread doesn't get to 1000 posts!

[RockCoCougars]

This thing will be towards the top all season long, mark my words. I still can't figure out why Betancourt is more of a lightning rod than Soup was- probably because he plays every day.

[Funketown]

This thing will be towards the top all season long, mark my words. I still can't figure out why Betancourt is more of a lightning rod than Soup was- probably because he plays every day.

I'm guessing that has something to do with it. Also, Suppan was somewhat productive in his first season with the Brewers. That said, I can't imagine how long this thread would be if Betancourt were signed to a mega-deal.

[DuWayne Steurer]

This thing will be towards the top all season long, mark my words. I still can't figure out why Betancourt is more of a lightning rod than Soup was- probably because he plays every day.

Suppan had a long track record of being almost exactly league average. Betencourt has a long track record of barely being replacement level. There's a huge difference there.

[RockCoCougars]

I've skipped a few pages here. Has anyone mentioned Alcides Escobar is sitting on a .516 OPS as of May 2nd?

Funny you bring Alcides up. I caught this on Fangraphs yesterday.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...-magnified-incompetence/

 

Do we have a new 'worst player' in baseball? Probably not, as the Royals fans are talking about his 'Insane Defense'.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I've skipped a few pages here. Has anyone mentioned Alcides Escobar is sitting on a .516 OPS as of May 2nd?

Funny you bring Alcides up. I caught this on Fangraphs yesterday.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...-magnified-incompetence/

 

Do we have a new 'worst player' in baseball? Probably not, as the Royals fans are talking about his 'Insane Defense'.

Couple things here.....

 

As many have said, Escobar is having an awful season, at the least, at the plate. No one is arguing that. I do think most will still feel that he has a higher ceiling than YuniB. That doesn't mean he'll reach said ceiling, and it certainly doesn't mean people expect him to be better than YuniB this year, but that's really, a completely different discussion.

 

Secondly, I recall several posters, including myself, calling YuniB *one of* the worst starters in baseball, which is significantly different than the accusation that he is *the worst* player in baseball. Context is important.

[monty57]

...it certainly doesn't mean people expect him to be better than YuniB this year, but that's really, a completely different discussion.

 

Not really, they were involved in the same trade. The involvement of Esocbar in the trade is the reason we didn't have a shortstop and KC had an extra SS, and therefore was the reason we got Yuni back in the trade.

 

The biggest arguement I've seen about Yuni is that we have a playoff caliber team, and Yuni is the weakest link. If Yuni is actually better than Escobar this year, then his added value over what we would have had with Escobar will actually help us in our playoff hunt, regardless of how he plays vs other SS in the league. His relative value has to be compared with our other options going into the season, not against some mythical "replacement player" or even against the "average SS."

[DuWayne Steurer]

...it certainly doesn't mean people expect him to be better than YuniB this year, but that's really, a completely different discussion.

 

Not really, they were involved in the same trade. The involvement of Esocbar in the trade is the reason we didn't have a shortstop and KC had an extra SS, and therefore was the reason we got Yuni back in the trade.

 

The biggest arguement I've seen about Yuni is that we have a playoff caliber team, and Yuni is the weakest link. If Yuni is actually better than Escobar this year, then his added value over what we would have had with Escobar will actually help us in our playoff hunt, regardless of how he plays vs other SS in the league. His relative value has to be compared with our other options going into the season, not against some mythical "replacement player" or even against the "average SS."

This year, they both suck. BetAncourt, probably a little less so. He's provided a few doubles and sacrifice flies, whereas Escobar's offensive 'contributions' over in KC are pitcher-esque. What's arguable (to some) is how much the difference in defense offsets. However, my argument is predicated on the fact that predictively, the Brewers would have been better off with Escobar than BetAncourt. Not many would have predicted Escobar's offense, to this point, to be so rotten. Predictions only go so far though. My argument has never been that we should have kept Escobar however.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Interesting that both of them had exactly a 0.6 WAR last year, according to fangraphs. Given that, I think it's fair to say that a 2nd year player should be expected to see an increase in production from year 1 to year 2, though it's not at all a given of course.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Betancourt's playing at a level that shouldn't warrant a 26-page thread debating whether him playing every day in Milwaukee will cost the Brewers a shot at the playoffs - there are plenty of other players on the current roster doing more to hurt playoff chances than Yuni B right now.

 

I'd love for Betancourt to be the weakest link on the team based on this year's performance, because that would mean the rest of the roster was performing at least at expectations (which on paper would probably be good enough to win this division). The fact that he's been one of their more productive players over the past few weeks speaks volumes about the inconsistencies and deficiencies of the rest of the roster.

[monty57]

...it certainly doesn't mean people expect him to be better than YuniB this year, but that's really, a completely different discussion.

 

Not really, they were involved in the same trade. The involvement of Esocbar in the trade is the reason we didn't have a shortstop and KC had an extra SS, and therefore was the reason we got Yuni back in the trade.

 

The biggest arguement I've seen about Yuni is that we have a playoff caliber team, and Yuni is the weakest link. If Yuni is actually better than Escobar this year, then his added value over what we would have had with Escobar will actually help us in our playoff hunt, regardless of how he plays vs other SS in the league. His relative value has to be compared with our other options going into the season, not against some mythical "replacement player" or even against the "average SS."

This year, they both suck. BetAncourt, probably a little less so. He's provided a few doubles and sacrifice flies, whereas Escobar's offensive 'contributions' over in KC are pitcher-esque. What's arguable (to some) is how much the difference in defense offsets. However, my argument is predicated on the fact that predictively, the Brewers would have been better off with Escobar than BetAncourt. Not many would have predicted Escobar's offense, to this point, to be so rotten. Predictions only go so far though. My argument has never been that we should have kept Escobar however.

But that again goes back to the ongoing theme of this thread. Betancourt seems to have been better than any other option available to us, but people still hate him because of preconceived notions and the belief that he probably won't be good going forward. I hope at some point, production outweighs predictions, but I've been told that this will never happen, as what Betancourt does this year for some reason will not matter.

 

Betancourt is probably at best an average all-around MLB SS. However, we need to look at this in terms of relative value. Relative to all other options which appear to have been available to us, Betancourt has a good chance of being the best of the bunch.

[Nottso]

If Yuni is actually better than Escobar this year, then his added value over what we would have had with Escobar will actually help us in our playoff hunt, regardless of how he plays vs other SS in the league. His relative value has to be compared with our other options going into the season, not against some mythical "replacement player" or even against the "average SS."

That's the most sensible statement in the entire thread.

[homer]

I don't have time to peruse all 26 pages but I heard through the grapevine that this thread is a doozy. Can someone recap? Thanks.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I don't have time to peruse all 26 pages but I heard through the grapevine that this thread is a doozy. Can someone recap? Thanks.

Not only is the thread 26 pages, there have been 3-4 recaps alone. At this point you could recap the recaps.

[monty57]

We could get the mods to authorize a Cliff Notes version of the thread. That way in the future kids can do reports on the thread without actually having to spend a week reading all the posts.

[1992casey]

Try this recap.