Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 1)

[COBrewerfan]

So far I would say he has been plenty good on both sides. Glove has been fine and he has been hitting the ball hard. He'll have his hot streak and get his average up a bit just like a few others in the lineup.

[logan82]

COBrewerfan[/b]]So far I would say he has been plenty good on both sides. Glove has been fine and he has been hitting the ball hard. He'll have his hot streak and get his average up a bit just like a few others in the lineup.

Unfortunately he may be on his hot streak.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The case of Betancourt brings up the dilemma between statheads and casual fans or even diehard fans that have trouble accepting statistical analysis as baseball gospel - the statheads have mountains of statistical information portraying Yuni as no better than a beerleague softball player defensively, mainly due to his terrible range/zone ratings. Offensively, Betancourt does nothing well enough to compensate for his range limitations at SS, leading statheads to declare him the "worst MLB regular" and cry incessantly for him to be off the field. Casual fans see him as surehanded, making the routine plays and don't see the cumulative effect a SS with no range or on base skills can have on a team's season and wonder what all the fuss is about, especially if he didn't do anything during games that blatantly led to a losses.

I think 99% of us don't view Betancourt as a good player, and feel that the Brewers could really improve their team if they can find an upgrade...at the right price. The difference is the sense of urgency to replace him - statheads see the sample size of his career and want him gone before giving him a chance, while others always want to see the results in a Brewer uniform before wanting to jettison him. For me, the best thing about Yuni for the Brewers is that he came with Greinke and he hasn't been blatantly terrible to this point to offset the value Greinke will add to the MLB team when he's starting every 5th day.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

pitchleague wrote:

 

When it's not hit right to him, though, oh boy! Is he slow! Last night, the 2nd Pirates hit really showed it to me. Off the bat it looked like a double play ball since it was hit fairly slow and hit to where most shortstops can get to it quickly, toss to the 2nd baseman, and at least get one out. He didn't even come close to it, almost like he was playing deep in the hole instead of in double play position.

This is exactly what I thought too. The camera turned towards Betancourt and I figured he could make a play and just get the force, but he just stumbled over himself and never got with 5 feet of the ball. That's a ball that Alcides probably gets to with ease and I know he's not close to Escobar defensively, but he just wasn't close at all.

[endaround]

I wish to stress that Betancourt's bad defense isn't a stats guys thing. Its what scouts have said since 2008. Its what Mariner's fans who watched him play and balloon up said. Its what people who watched him in KC said.

[danzig6767]

I'm with RoCo... the dude can't hit. I'd say that's fairly established by now.

If he can have one of his .690 OPS type of years, that's not absolutely brutal for a shortstop. There were about a 10-12 guys last year who posted a sub.700 OPS at shortstop last season.

 

I'm not saying that Yuni isn't a really bad hitter, but considering that he's a SS, it's not as if he's a lone extreme example of bad hitting for his position. If he was a quality defensive player, i'd be reasonably accepting of how he hits. It's just that he sucks both at the plate and in the field that brings the wrath. For me at least, i'm more bothered by his defense. Our offense is good enough that we should be able to score runs with a lot of Betancourt 0-4 or 1-4 nights, along with some doubles and homers by him sprinkled in. I get more frustrated seeing balls hit to the left/right of him that a quality SS has a decent shot of creating an out, but Yuni barely even bothers trying to field the ball, much less create an out or a close play at 1st/2nd base.

 

We haven't seen this magnified much yet, but there certainly will end up being numerous situations like say guys on 2nd and 3rd with two outs in a close game where a ball is hit up the middle and a quality SS would make a nice play to end the inning. With Betancourt though, it'll roll right through to the outfield for a two run single and he won't get called for an error, but it will still cost the team two critical runs.

[COBrewerfan]

Well apparently a guy named Melvin thinks he is suitable enough to be on this team seeing he did not find the replacement everyone seems to want. We don't have an endless amount of money and we traded for a stud pitcher and had to go with Yuni at SS. He has been fine so far and I cannot understand the hate for this guy already. I will take our rotation and take him at SS without hesitation. Take a look at the list below and look at what other team are starting at SS minus some of the elite guys. Not the scariest of lists. But reading the chat, I guess we are suppoed to have studs all over the field like the yankees. All I am trying to say is that we are not as bad as some like to think and I am not sure who they wanted to go out and get. We didn't have money to spend and there really was little out there to get. Considering the rest of our team once Hart and Greinke come back, I am happier as heck with the roster we have assembled. It's almost like a dream.....

 

Angel Sanchez

Willie Bloomquist

Jamey Carroll

Paul Janish

Ryan Theriot

Danny Espinosa

Miguel Tejada

Ian Desmond

Jason Bartlett

Asdrubal Cabrera

Jhonny Peralta

Alcides Escobar

Derek Jeter

Brendan Ryan

Elvis Andrus

JJ Hardy

Jed Lowrie

Marco Scutaro

[logan82]

We don't have an endless amount of money and we traded for a stud pitcher and had to go with Yuni at SS.

 

Talent is supposed to dictate our payroll this year. That is what Mark A. said. We gutted our minor league system of top talent to improve ourselves to a point where we are on the verge of being a really good team then stopped.

 

He has been fine so far and I cannot understand the hate for this guy already.

 

He has been poor so far, he is a really bad player and has been for a few years now.

 

I guess we are suppoed to have studs all over the field like the yankees.

 

Completely false. All we are asking for is a guy who isn't the worst everyday player in the majors over the last 3 years.

 

 

All I am trying to say is that we are not as bad as some like to think and I am not sure who they wanted to go out and get.

 

Nobody is saying we are a bad or even average team. We are a team that is likely 1-2 wins short of being a solid playoff team. We made moves to improve every single position, even CF where we had a no-hit/good defense player, yet we ignored the one obvious black hole.

[PKBadger]

He has been poor so far, he is a really bad player and has been for a few years now.

...

Completely false. All we are asking for is a guy who isn't the worst everyday player in the majors over the last 3 years.

...

We made moves to improve every single position, even CF where we had a no-hit/good defense player, yet we ignored the one obvious black hole.

Uh...guys? I think it stopped breathing.

 

http://www.douchebagreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Beating_a_dead_horse.jpg

 

 

I've resigned myself to enjoying this season, with the understanding that our shortstop is flawed and the expectation that this situation will be addressed by mid-July.

[Ennder]

Angel Sanchez

Willie Bloomquist

Jamey Carroll

Paul Janish

Ryan Theriot

Danny Espinosa

Miguel Tejada

Ian Desmond

Jason Bartlett

Asdrubal Cabrera

Jhonny Peralta

Alcides Escobar

Derek Jeter

Brendan Ryan

Elvis Andrus

JJ Hardy

Jed Lowrie

Marco Scutaro

 

I would trade Betancourt straight up for every single one of these names and for a number of the backups for these players as well. He really is just terrible and we could have replaced him for league minimum most likely.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wish to stress that Betancourt's bad defense isn't a stats guys thing. Its what scouts have said since 2008. Its what Mariner's fans who watched him play and balloon up said. Its what people who watched him in KC said.

These same scouts said the Brewers looked bad in spring didn't they? I put very little stock in what scouts say. Scouts are generally ex minor league or fringe ballplayers who aren't capable of getting a real job, and they scout because they have contacts in the game and they love life on the road. While I'm often critical of Melvin, I trust his judgment far more than the usual anonymous know-it-all scouts.

 

Mariner's fans? Fans of bad teams like to find whipping boys to blame. In 2008, the Mariners lost 101 games. The fans were fed up with everyone on their roster except Ichiro that year.

 

While fielding stats don't tell the whole story, if Betancourt was playing as bad as he's portrayed by his haters, how is the Brewer pitching staff sitting with a team ERA right now of 3.07? Wouldn't all these phantom 12 hoppers that are supposedly getting through the infield with regularity (apparently when I'm at the fridge) be costing them runs?

[rluzinski]

I wish to stress that Betancourt's bad defense isn't a stats guys thing. Its what scouts have said since 2008. Its what Mariner's fans who watched him play and balloon up said. Its what people who watched him in KC said.

Exactly. There is almost no one on Betancourt's side these days. Here's Tangotiger's fan scouting report from last year:

http://www.tangotiger.net/scout/index4.php?teamid=118&team=Kansas%20City%20Royals

0-100, 50 average. They think his arm is a little above average, at least.

It's rare when you an have stats/fans/scouts agree on anything but sadly, this is one of them.

[Robideaux]

Uh...guys? I think it stopped breathing.

I hear you, and I'm all for a detente on the whole Yuni debate, but if somebody starts a thread with the premise that Yuni is actually not that bad a defender or not that bad a hitter, it isn't that unreasonable for other posters to respond with evidence to the contrary. As far as I'm concerned, people can enjoy (or not enjoy) the Brewers in whatever way that makes them happy, but there is no rational, objective measure by which Yuniesky Betancourt is a good major league baseball player. Period. Exclamation point.

 

If fans choose to believe differently, whether it is because sanctimonious stat geeks get under their skin or because their particular breed of fandom doesn't have room for objectivity, it is their prerogative—but they are wrong.

[rluzinski]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

While fielding stats don't tell the whole story, if Betancourt was playing as bad as he's portrayed by his haters, how is the Brewer pitching staff sitting with a team ERA right now of 3.07? Wouldn't all these phantom 12 hoppers that are supposedly getting through the infield with regularity (apparently when I'm at the fridge) be costing them runs?

You are trying to correlate team ERA to the defensive abilities of one player over 11 games? I'm going to go out on a limb to say that pitcher skill, luck and the defensive ability of the other 8 defenders might mask everything else.

[strawbossisevil]

While I am no means going to expect the defensive numbers to continue to paint him in this light.

 

According to Baseball Reference, Yuni's defense to this point in the season has saved 2 runs above average, and is on pace to be +25 over the course of the whole season.

 

He's been bad for most of his career, but the defensive statistics to this point suggest he hasn't been nearly as bad this season as most in this thread have stated. It is a small sample, I know, but it is interesting - considering all of the complaining that has been done so far this season about his defense.

 

http://www.baseball-refer.../b/betanyu01-field.shtml

[JohnBriggs12]

Someone in 1982 could have easily said this:

 

"there is no rational, objective measure by which Charlie Moore is a good major league baseball player other than the fact that apparently he was good enough to start for a team that won 95 games, and came within one game of a World Championship"

 

My point is you can discuss all you want on just what level Betancourt is on, but the fact is this team is capable even with him at shortstop of getting to the postseason. So what sense does it make to constantly criticize the guy? He's not the highest paid player on the team. He's not a convicted felon. He hasn't failed a drug test. He is what he is. We can debate all we want how good or bad that is, but he's not going anywhere. The team has won 7 of its last 8. He's made some contribution in that time. He hasn't made a costly error. Live with it.

[CheezWizHed]

When JJ was here, the knock on him was sure-handed, but limited range. Then with Escobar, it was great range, but didn't always make the easy play. Now Yuni.

 

I'd guess when its all said and done, that Yuni and Escobar will end up with similar WAR numbers. Not that we couldn't use an upgrade at SS, but showing that we didn't downgrade SS (at least for this year) while improving pitching.

[DuWayne Steurer]

While I am no means going to expect the defensive numbers to continue to paint him in this light.

 

According to Baseball Reference, Yuni's defense to this point in the season has saved 2 runs above average, and is on pace to be +25 over the course of the whole season.

 

He's been bad for most of his career, but the defensive statistics to this point suggest he hasn't been nearly as bad this season as most in this thread have stated. It is a small sample, I know, but it is interesting - considering all of the complaining that has been done so far this season about his defense.

 

http://www.baseball-refer.../b/betanyu01-field.shtml

The only issue I take with that is that baseball-reference uses Range Factor as one of the determinations in their calculations, and that's an absolutely terrible stat to judge range. UZR (or just about any other measurement) is far superior to range factor. RF is basically chances per game, and then compared to league average.

 

 

EDIT: Fangraphs currently has him at -0.1 WAR, which would statistically tell us he shouldn't even be on a major league bench right now, let alone starting for a team hoping to contend for the playoffs.

[strawbossisevil]

The only issue I take with that is that baseball-reference uses Range Factor as one of the determinations in their calculations, and that's an absolutely terrible stat to judge range. UZR (or just about any other measurement) is far superior to range factor. RF is basically chances per game, and then compared to league average.

It is the only defensive metric currently available to measure how he is doing (as UZR isn't available currently as far as I can tell). And this defensive metric has always painted him as a poor defender in the past, so I think it serves as a decent measuring stick. The point is he clearly hasn't been as bad so far this season as some are claiming. I was curious how quickly someone was going to come on here to dismiss the statistic because it doesn't fit with ongoing argument...what was it, 10 minutes?

Give Betancourt some credit. He currently has made 11 out of zone plays according to Fangraphs - a huge jump in where he should be at this point of the season. Essentially, all of the stats we have so far on this season suggest he has been better than we could ever have expected in the field going into the season.

The problem is, no one is noticing because people are watching him under a magnifying glass, looking for any small "slip up" where they can knock him. In the game threads there have been plays where not even Escobar would have come close to making the play (because of a shift), and yet Betancourt is derided for not making the play. There is no objectivity at this point. People believe he sucks (and in his career he has), and therefore they are looking for any visible clues to confirm that belief.

 

[Ennder]

When JJ was here, the knock on him was sure-handed, but limited range. Then with Escobar, it was great range, but didn't always make the easy play. Now Yuni.

 

I'd guess when its all said and done, that Yuni and Escobar will end up with similar WAR numbers. Not that we couldn't use an upgrade at SS, but showing that we didn't downgrade SS (at least for this year) while improving pitching.

Of course in JJ's situation the knock on him was pretty much always wrong. Hardy's didn't look athletic while playing so people assumed he had no range. Betancourt just can't move at all.

 

As for UZR, 11 games of defense is so meaningless they haven't bothered including it yet. You can't judge defense with stats over such a small sample, you really do need to use the scouting angle for small samples.

 

Keep in mind UZR/150 suggests he only costs the team around 8 runs per season, the defense alone isn't why he is so bad. He is also one of the worst hitters in baseball because of the low OBP. He could somehow play average defense this year and still be one of the worst starters at SS in baseball.

[Bombers]

When JJ was here, the knock on him was sure-handed, but limited range. Then with Escobar, it was great range, but didn't always make the easy play. Now Yuni.

 

I'd guess when its all said and done, that Yuni and Escobar will end up with similar WAR numbers. Not that we couldn't use an upgrade at SS, but showing that we didn't downgrade SS (at least for this year) while improving pitching.

I 100% agree. Escobar didn't do well last year. He batted .235 with a .288 OBP. Pretty much what we will probably get with Yuni this year. Esco had 20 errors and .964 fielding % where Betancourt had 18 errors and .974 %. So we are on par to have exactly more of the same as last year. However, in the process we picked up Greinke!! I am for putting this debate to rest. Some wanted him gone the day we aquired him and others say lets what to June and see if we need to make a move by the deadline. I sit on the latter.

 

 

[DuWayne Steurer]

It is the only defensive metric currently available to measure how he is doing (as UZR isn't available currently as far as I can tell). And this defensive metric has always painted him as a poor defender in the past, so I think it serves as a decent measuring stick. The point is he clearly hasn't been as bad so far this season as some are claiming. I was curious how quickly someone was going to come on here to dismiss the statistic because it doesn't fit with ongoing argument...what was it, 10 minutes?

Give Betancourt some credit. He currently has made 11 out of zone plays according to Fangraphs - a huge jump in where he should be at this point of the season. Essentially, all of the stats we have so far on this season suggest he has been better than we could ever have expected in the field going into the season.

The problem is, no one is noticing because people are watching him under a magnifying glass, looking for any small "slip up" where they can knock him. In the game threads there have been plays where not even Escobar would have come close to making the play (because of a shift), and yet Betancourt is derided for not making the play. There is no objectivity at this point. People believe he sucks (and in his career he has), and therefore they are looking for any visible clues to confirm that belief.

 

Precisely the reason I stay out of the in game threads. But on the flip-side, I don't expect Yuni to out-perform his career norms over the course of the season. He's a bad defender, with the huge problem being his poor range. He does look slow footed out there, and he doesn't have a good first step.

 

And yes, I know I was dismissive of a stat that didn't back up the argument. It's entirely possible at this point of the season he HAS been a plus defender, but I don't actually believe that. Just like hitting, it's possible over a small sample size for a defender to be competent or even above average. That doesn't mean that over the whole season I'd expect, or even HOPE for Yuni to be competent.

 

The Brewers have occaisional windows of opportunity to contend. This year is one of them. I don't believe having a negative WAR player on the field is conducive to contending. I have nothing against Betencourt personally. I would like for him to succeed. But he has over 3000 PA's and the resulting field time that to me, indicate what we're not going to have a SS that's going to suddenly improve, be a .330 OBP guy, or a fantastic defender.

[strawbossisevil]

Precisely the reason I stay out of the in game threads. But on the flip-side, I don't expect Yuni to out-perform his career norms over the course of the season. He's a bad defender, with the huge problem being his poor range. He does look slow footed out there, and he doesn't have a good first step.

 

And yes, I know I was dismissive of a stat that didn't back up the argument. It's entirely possible at this point of the season he HAS been a plus defender, but I don't actually believe that. Just like hitting, it's possible over a small sample size for a defender to be competent or even above average. That doesn't mean that over the whole season I'd expect, or even HOPE for Yuni to be competent.

The Brewers have occaisional windows of opportunity to contend. This year is one of them. I don't believe having a negative WAR player on the field is conducive to contending. I have nothing against Betencourt personally. I would like for him to succeed. But he has over 3000 PA's and the resulting field time that to me, indicate what we're not going to have a SS that's going to suddenly improve, be a .330 OBP guy, or a fantastic defender.

Look, I agree that he, more than likely, is going to finish the season as a below average fielder. That isn't my point. My point is that people have been extremely critical of his defense so far this season...despite the fact that all objective stats suggest that he has actually done quite well to this point.

My other point is that people expected the Brewers to make an upgrade at the position. The problem is this.

1) the available options this offseason were in their mid to upper 30s.

2) amongst those many had been playing the utility role, and hadn't come even close to playing a full season at the position. There were no significant upgrades available at the SS position this offseason following the Greinke trade.

3) If we had somehow held on to Escobar in all of this, would people be still calling for the signing of a SS? Escobar to this point in the season has the same WAR as Betancourt.

As I've stated a number of times, I think the Brewers hands were somewhat tied this offseason by a lack of SS options. I think they'll likely make a deal in July to bring in a guy like Furcal.

Come playoff time, I would rather have a guy like Furcal in the lineup than some mid 30s scrub.

[Thurston Fluff]

You can't judge defense with stats over such a small sample, you really do need to use the scouting angle for small samples.

 

You can't predict future defense nor overall defense with those small samples. You can judge his defense over the specific period of time he was putting up those numbers. Those numbers showed he got to a lot more out of zone balls than he traditionally does. Thus his objective measurements seem to be that of better defense than his past suggests. If the question is has his defense been a pleasant surprise so far based on the objective measurements I would say yes. If the question is do I expect it to last based on the objective measurements I would say no.

[zzzmanwitz]

Escobar didn't do well last year. He batted .235 with a .288 OBP. Pretty much what we will probably get with Yuni this year.

 

 

Betancourt is a career 83 OPS+ plus player where as Escobar had a 67 OPS+. If you take defense into account, I'd say you can pretty much call 2010 Escobar and 2011 Betancourt a wash.