Yuniesky Betancourt: What value does he bring to the team? (part 1)

[mothershipconnection]

If the data is indeed flawed, then the numbers have to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

 

It's a lot like survey data and much group design research done with small populations. With small n, something that's, say 90% accurate, could produce a wildly-inaccurate value. As the number of data increases, though, the data become more meaningful. All measurement systems that have wiggle room present gigantic problems with small n.

 

It's how we occasionally get data which suggest that quackery cures back pain. Since our tools for assessing back pain are based on self-report and are thus not highly precise, and we have a sample of perhaps 12 people assigned to 2 groups, the lack of precision in the measurement may suggest that reiki alleviates pain by a statistically-significant margin. Meta-analysis, and large groups with solid controls, however, will give us a more accurate depiction of reality. It's not that measuring back pain by self report should be completely dismissed, but that you can't rule out fluctuations which are a result of the measurement system and have nothing to do with your independent variable with a small number of data.

[JJHardy7]

Did you just start watching baseball this season? This may sum up how the Yuni haters see his play. A bad hop play is seen as the worst ever. So you either have seen very little baseball or just look for ways to kick the guy.

 

I don't want to sound like a jerk, but I was kind of thinking the same play. Every player is going to make mistakes...Yuni's = him sucking or doing something the worst ever.

 

He's not great and I get that he has ranked pretty crappy at defense. I'm just hoping he can be motivated or something else that we haven't seen. Is that realistic? Perhaps not, but I'll try and not rip on him just based on his reputation. I'm hopeful he'll be good enough for the time being to not cost us games, etc.

 

Is it disappointing we didn't do something in the off-season? Sure, but that doesn't mean Yuni sucks every time he makes a mistake. Blame Doug...not Yuni.

[strawbossisevil]

No they don't tell us anything. To take you analogy is like interviewing 30 people giving the same interviews to 4 polling firms and them getting different but similar results because of the filters they use. It doesn't change that the underlying sample tells us nothing. And this isn't just a sample size issue, its a measurement issue. All they tell us is that he's neither been especially great or especially terrible and that doesn't even get into how shifts can muck things up.

Not exactly, because each look at what happens in the field in a unique way, one focuses more heavily on range, another focuses more on ball trajectory and speed, etc.. If Betancourt's results were below average to this point, one of those four "objective" measurements should have caught it. That none of them did, should tell you something.

Look, I get it. Many here came into the season talking up how horrible he truly is at the position (and he has been) and thus won't be convinced that he has put up fairly average results for a MLB SS over the first tenth of the season. I realize that no statistic would be convincing for any of you, as the statistics don't measure up with what you believe your eyes told you.

No one is going to be convinced at this point, so I'm willing to let it drop if all of you are.

[T B0NE 10]

His play today might be the worst I've EVER seen a major league baseball player look defensively.

Yeah he sure played awful when he saved the game for us with his diving play in the 8th. I'll agree the wicked hop in the 12th made him look silly, although he had to pick that perfect as Shane Victorino was hustling down the line. So he made, perhaps the best defensive play of the season, and a below average play on a wicked hop. I suppose that would qualify his play as the "Worst one would ever have seen", being objective and all.

Edit: Ender, they are useless in telling us what to expect going forward, but when all three major defensive sabermetric statistic companies all have his play as essentially league average, does that not, just possibly, suggest that his play to this point might have actually been a bit better than many on here expected at the beginning of the season? I think it does. It is looking at the data three ways, and each came up with the same result. All I heard when I posted BIP and Zone is that they were not UZR. Now I've posted UZR as well, and that still isn't good enough, in your mind, to draw even the slightest conclusion.

The ball was hit right at him and he went at it like a little leaguer scared of the ball. That "wicked hop" wouldn't have been a problem if he wasn't so damn lazy.

 

Yeah he had a great play earlier in the game but that error was inexcusable.

[Tedaldtada]

I'm just wondering why JB12 and SBiE seemingly want to go down as the 'YuBet Dudes' on Brewerfan.net...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Anyways, I don't think YuBet is good. Probably never will. But I sure as heck am going to pull for him every last second he is in a Brewer uni.

[RobDeer 45]

I too am pulling for him and I know he's not the best but he's our SS. There are a lot of people that are just looking to rip him for every little thing he does, that kind of sucks. If you are going to do that, I hope you are at least man enough to give him praise when it is deserved. I thought he played well tonight, and even when he didn't get a hit, hit the ball hard. I know some people want the bragging rights of "I told you so" but sometimes we need to cheer and give praise too!

[danzig6767]

I too am pulling for him and I know he's not the best but he's our SS. There are a lot of people that are just looking to rip him for every little thing he does, that kind of sucks. If you are going to do that, I hope you are at least man enough to give him praise when it is deserved. I thought he played well tonight, and even when he didn't get a hit, hit the ball hard. I know some people want the bragging rights of "I told you so" but sometimes we need to cheer and give praise too!

I was very troubled by Melvin acquiring Betancourt, but by no means do i want him to perform poorly and i can't see anyone else wanting that either. People come to this site because they are Brewers fans first and want to see the team do well.

 

As for his hitting, while most here i'm sure despise his hack at every pitch approach at the plate and thus the terrible OBP, i think most would acknowledge that Yuni has some pop in his bat for the position and that he's far from alone in being a poor overall hitter at the SS position. One only needs to look at the stats of all shortstops last year to see that numerous guys had a sub-.700 OPS. Hell, if Betancourt could play SS at or near the same level that Gomez plays CF, i'd be thrilled with Melvin bringing Betancourt on to the team regardless of his brutal OBP totals he posts every year.

[Oldcity]

Russ, to say you know more about these stats than I is a tremendous understatement, so could you please alleviate my fears about the flaws in the data? From a couple of earlier posts, I'm now worried that the plays are being monitored by some drunk college kid while he's chatting up the ladies at the game.

 

"Hey, I wasn't watching. How did Prince get on 1B? Oh, it says a single, so I'll just say he shot a line drive by the second baseman. No one will know the difference."

 

If the data is indeed flawed, then the numbers have to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

This may have been lost in the shuffle, but I was one of these "drunk college kids" a couple years ago for BIS. I'll clear up a few things.

They only hire graduates. Pretty sobering to work at a minimum wage internship as a graduate.

You don't go to live games. All their information is obtained by watching video, so rewinding, watching in slow-motion, etc. is a routine part of the process. The interns are responsible for scoring games, which consists of plotting hit locations, hit types (grounder, liner, fly, "fliner") and whether it was hit hard, medium, or soft. These things account for fielder range. We then had to score on a series of Good Fielding Plays (GFPs) and Defensive Misplays (DMs), of which there were several types (good double play turn, good assist, and several more).

We were also responsible for charting pitchers, which included pitch type, location, and velocity. We also marked hit location and velocity while charting. We scored games live (or reasonably live, as we'd rewind and get hung up occasionally). We charted games the day after they were played.

There are problems with BIS, as human error is a part of anything, but in my opinion, their setup was just as responsible for error. Almost all of the guys I worked with were sharp guys, so nobody was really slacking off or "chatting up girls" or anything. I'm out of baseball as a career now, so I have no problem telling this story as an example:

Their field dimensions were shockingly not to always scale. Obviously each stadium is different, but some were clearly wrong. One that was clearly messed up was Safeco. Their wall on their replica of Safeco was clearly plotted as too far from home plate based on the field's actual dimensions in certain areas. The wall was too far. Therefore, every time a catch was made at the wall, it was plotted as several feet beyond the fence! Take a look at the 2009 defensive metrics for center fielders, which is the year I worked there. Franklin Gutierrez is off the charts. Now, he's certainly a good fielder, but his numbers were seriously inflated. I have no way of knowing whether this model is still used, but I know a couple of us brought up this problem multiple times to the higher ups to no avail.

That's just one example. Like I said, I still think BIS does good things overall, but some of their flaws are going to cost them in the industry if they aren't addressed.

[Ennder]

If Betancourt were an average fielder his offense wouldn't be a huge problem. Yeah he would still stink offensively but a lot of SS stink offensively. It is just the combo of hitting and fielding both being poor that makes him a bad player. If he could just BB close to the league average rate he'd be fine too but the poor plate approach pretty much sabotages any gains from his pop.

[rluzinski]

There are problems with BIS, as human error is a part of anything, but in my opinion, their setup was just as responsible for error. Almost all of the guys I worked with were sharp guys, so nobody was really slacking off or "chatting up girls" or anything. I'm out of baseball as a career now, so I have no problem telling this story as an example...

There is also just a lot of concern about the difficulty of accurately identifying the location of balls in play. One area of concern that I've read about is hit location on balls between 2nd and 3rd, when there isn't a base in view. Without a firm reference point, it's hard to know exactly where the ball is. Another concern is the somewhat subjective assessment of how hard a ball is hit. Perhaps you can comment on either?

Again, you hope most of this stuff evens out over the course of a season but over a couple of weeks? No way. Until MLB tracks the exact hit location and speed of balls in play, as well as pre-pitch location of defenders, I believe that these metrics are going to need a large sample to give us anything solid. Large as in, a couple of full seasons.

[monty57]

Thanks for the clarification guys. And Stevo, I was purposely going over the top in my example, so please don't take offense in my tongue-in-cheek post about your fomer job. It was nice to hear how it's actually done, and it is good to have something other than the "eyeball test" we had to use up until a few years ago to judge defense. My guess is that, as with most new technologies/innovations, while there are some flaws in the early stages, most of the kinks will be worked out.

[Oldcity]

rluzinski wrote:

There is also just a lot of concern about the difficulty of accurately identifying the location of balls in play. One area of concern that I've read about is hit location on balls between 2nd and 3rd, when there isn't a base in view. Without a firm reference point, it's hard to know exactly where the ball is. Another concern is the somewhat subjective assessment of how hard a ball is hit. Perhaps you can comment on either?

You're right. On those plays, you just have to use your best judgment. There's a lot of pausing to see where a player lines up with the mound, distance from the base, etc, but sometimes you can't see a base, and you have to just based on distance from outfield/infield grass. It's also tough because you want to stay as close to live as possible.

They went through a pretty extensive training on how they judge how hard balls are hit. We arrive a couple weeks before the season to work on things like that and passed little quizzes they gave us. It's honestly the best they could do to try to get everyone on as close to the same page as possible.

And Stevo, I was purposely going over the top in my example, so please don't take offense in my tongue-in-cheek post about your fomer job.

None taken. It's not exactly clear how this information is obtained if you haven't seen it in person.

[The Truth]

Its only been 18 games but Betancourt has been absolutely horrible so far at the plate. a .514 OPS and .238 OBP is just horrific. Now I might say its a small sample but the bigger sample of his career stats shows a .295 OBP in over 3000 plate appearances.

 

And his defense is shaky at best. Worst starting position player in MLB? Quite possibly

[COBrewerfan]

This may be the worst comment yet. He has been pretty good in the field actually. And his bat has not been awful either. He has gotten his hits, sac flys when needed, and will have a hot streak at some point. And while his OBP is probably going to be low, his average will be fine at some point. We have enough high OBP hitters so it is not uncommon to have at least one or two low average guys in your lineup.

[rluzinski]

I'm sure Betancourt's offensive numbers will pick up substantially but to call a .238 OBP and a .514 OPS "not awful" is unjustifiable, to be kind. Betancourt's projected offensive production for a SS is not awful but the results so far have been, no question.

[DHonks]

Betancourt is tagging the ball, just right at guys. his avg on balls in play has to be awful considering how hard he hits it. At the same time, I'd rather give Brandon Wood 500 at bats at SS the rest of the way to see if he can develop

[mothershipconnection]

his avg on balls in play has to be awful considering how hard he hits it.

 

.218 (.064 below his career average), so yeah, he has probably been a bit unlucky. However, his LD% is down to 14.5 from his career 18.3 and he's hitting more fly balls.

[monty57]

But he's also had some positions with runners on 3rd, so with this small # of ABs, a few purposeful fly balls could account for the seemingly drastic increase in FB%.

 

My guess is his offensive #'s will improve, while his defensive #'s will fall, and he'll end the year somewhere around where most people expected going into the season.

[Ennder]

My guess is his offensive #'s will improve, while his defensive #'s

will fall, and he'll end the year somewhere around where most people

expected going into the season.

 

Which is one of the worst position players in baseball~

 

To take the optimistic side maybe moving to the easier league and a better hitters park helps. Also moving to a team where winning actually matters might help too since he seems to be a lazy player and playing on a losing team can't help with that.

[MJLiverock]

I've noticed more than a few gripes when YB swings at the first pitch but he actually hits better when he does. He has a .308 avg. if he puts that first pitch in play, much better than his career numbers. The guy is never going to foul off a ton a pitches and draw a walk so he may as well swing at that first one if he likes it.

 

I have never really been bothered by guys swinging at the first pitch, as long as it is a strike. Letting the pitcher get ahead 0-1 on a grooved fastball just to take a pitch seems silly. Hardy used to drive me crazy watching a fastball down the middle of the plate to fall behind 0-1, especially knowing he was a fastball hitter. It looks like YB is better served swinging at the first pitch.

 

Not picking Hardy because he plays the same position as YB but because he always stood out to me as letting good pitches go by just to take a pitch.

[TheCrew]

Yuni played some great D in that Phillies series - outside of the ball he Roger Dorn'ed the first night, his play was about as good as it gets this past series.

 

As for his offense, I love the fact he puts the ball in play most of the time and rarely K's - seen it produce a few runs already this season and it's refreshing to see that.

 

Let's also not forget that this is Betancourt's first shot at a winner, guy has been playing on last place teams pretty much his entire career................. not trying to say that will make a player better, but I think Betancourt has shown he is capable of playing good D when he puts the effort in...... hopefully the potential to be part of a winning team will provide him some extra motivation.

 

I don't think he is anyone's ideal fit for us at SS - but given the circumstances, Betancourt has exceeded my expectations so far and I expect guys like Braun, Fielder, etc. to push him if he does starts to dog it.

[monty57]

I expect guys like Braun, Fielder, etc. to push him if he does starts to dog it.

 

Maybe that's why he's playing better defense. Someone showed him the footage of Prince pinning Parra to the wall and said "this will be you if you dog it in the field."

[JohnBriggs12]

Betancourt is currently leading the league in sacrifice flys with 3.

 

Walks are certainly foreign to him, and he's certainly not a great hitter, but there is an upside to being able to get wood on the ball when there's a runner on 3rd and less than 2 out.

[Oldcity]

The biggest contribution Betancourt has made is that his presence convinces righties to IBB Kotsay.

[jason21nl]

It blows me away the dudes IBB Kotsay