We can be happy with 6-5 for now, but a few guys in this lineup are struggling...

[jeffy]

...this team will not hold up with the current lineup if he run into pitching problems.

 

Excluding the pitcher, with Hart and Lucroy, there will be at least a 25% change to the line up for most of the 151 remaining games.

[cwolf2012]

For the first 11 games of the season, Albert Pujols, his holiness, is putting up a .609 OPS.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's 11 games. Geesh. Albert Pujols is hitting .229/.296/.313. What an out machine he his! Carlos Gonzalez is terrible too. He's hitting .268/.311/.317. Dan Uggla is pathetic too, hitting just .152/.188/.304.

 

I know all you Gomez and Betancourt haters want nothing more than to have some stats to back up your irrational over the top hatred for them as players, but even you need to get a larger sample than 11 games. Casey McGehee is not going to hit .211. Carlos Gomez may not hit .300 but he's not going to hit .194 nor is Betancourt going to hit .216. But guess what, Nyjer Morgan isn't going to hit .450 and Fielder isn't going to hit .385 either.

 

The fact is the Brewers have won 6 of 7. They and the Reds look like the class of the division, warts and all. Get used to it.

[greeg35]

ha ha, way to turn the small sample size table around JB, that is pure comedy!

As has been pointed out, there are much larger sample sizes out there to support the fact that Betancourt and Gomez suck...such as their career numbers. McGehee (and Pujols) on the other hand needs to be given some more time considering his career numbers. Also, I do not feel we need to "get used to" Gomez in CF since we already have his replacement in house.

[CheezWizHed]

Please tell me that is a joke about Lucroy hitting #2. A catcher does not hit #2 - too much else on his mind.

 

Actually Lucroy might become a good #2 hitter. I'm not ready to drop him there right now, but his minor league career numbers are: 298/379/459/838

 

If he can get his MLB OBP up to 350/360, he would make a fine #2 hitter.

[buckeyesteve]

Even when things are going well, people complain. I am so glad I don't live in that world.

 

I just for the life of me cannot understand why they would insist on being so miserable and trying to find fault with everyone/everything.

 

Enjoy the good times. The Brewers are making me happy and on a small roll right now. Why not look at the positives? sure is more fun in life that way. Call me crazy I guess.

[dlk9s]

I just want everybody to know that I hit 1.000 my senior year in high school. I really don't know why I didn't receive a ton of scholarship offers.

 

 

I went 1-for-1. My coach didn't let pitchers hit. But I'm not concerned about sample size.

[Ennder]

Unfortunately this is an issue of mismanaging the team. The first mistake was not replacing Betancourt before the season started, he has been close to the worst full time player in baseball over the past 3 seasons and might actually be the worst. There is no excuse for this team to go into the season with this clown starting, Luis Cruz would have been an upgrade.

 

The second mistake was putting Kotsay and Reed on the roster. Again these players are below replacement level, there is no reason that a no hit, no field player should be on a playoff team, at least Reed can field a little bit but we still stuck with Kotsay who is useless. These guys can be upgraded for peanuts and don't deserve spots on major league rosters much less being the backup plan for injuries. Every time they start Kotsay over Morgan they are costing the team part of a win.

 

I'm not worried at all about McGehee, he might not play like he did the last two years but he is hardly going to be the problem with the roster, he'll be in that .750+ OPS range most likely by end of season. Gomez should probably sit every day against RHP once Hart is back, Morgan is just a better player. I don't have a huge issue with Gomez, he can't hit but he is good enough defensively to offset it but Morgan is just better.

[owbc]

Welcome to BF.net Brian!

 

Don't get discouraged from posting by this thread, we have lots of strong opinions on this board.

 

I like your original question:

The question is...do the stats revert to the mean or does the W-L record

drop due to these incredibly weak links in the lineup.

But the phrases "stats revert to the mean" and "incredibly weak links in the lineup" are somewhat asking for trouble when mentioned 11 games into the season.

 

Because of McGehee's history, there has always been some reason to fear that he could return to a replacement level player. The stats show nothing but good numbers. A solid .803 career OPS. 3.4 WAR in 2010. He's also 28 years old this year--definitely not an age where you would expect decline. By all accounts he has a great work ethic. No need to be worried in the long run.

 

In the short term, if McGehee keeps struggling Fielder could start getting Barry Bonds treatment. That could easily happen within a few weeks and would not be good if McGehee can't take advantage.

[bylo tesi me]

I think the reason Gomez is seeing a lot of playing time is because he played well in ST and Roenicke is giving him a fair shot. Do I agree with this? No I don't. It just seems to me that Roenicke is reluctant to give up on Gomez this quickly. Eventually, once Gomez keeps playing the way he always will, Roenicke will come to his senses and platoon him and Morgan in CF. I remember Roenicke saying in ST that the only reason he's batting Gomez 2nd is because Hart is hurt. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hart hitting there, especially when Gomez is in the lineup. I do think we'll end up seeing Morgan hitting 2nd and Hart hitting 6th though.

I totally agree with this. I think it's sometimes easy to forget that Managers have to manage people and not just stat sheets. Gomez, regardless if he may be somewhat delusional perhaps, see's himself as a top of the order hitter with speed. He did work hard this spring trying to improve his approach, it's just that he can't recognize pitches so he will always have poor plate discipline. Roenicke probably feels he has to give Gomez a few weeks to prove he doesn't belong in the 2 hole before moving him down in the order. In addition, with Hart sidelined, Roenicke didn't really have any available options for batting 2nd. Morgan certainly, but Roenicke was committed to giving Gomez a chance at the starting CF job. So inserting Betancourt, Kotsay, or Nieves/Kottaras there would be just as senseless as Gomez. I think once Hart returns he'll hit second and Gomez will be dropped down to 7 or 8.

[Ennder]

In the short term, if McGehee keeps struggling Fielder could start getting Barry Bonds treatment. That could easily happen within a few weeks and would not be good if McGehee can't take advantage.

 

Bonds most productive seasons were when he was getting the Bonds treatment. Putting players on base is rarely a wise move even when they are the best hitters on the team.

[Thurston Fluff]

Is there ever a time when all the players are hitting well on any team? Each player will struggle at times and be hot at times. Chances are Prince, Braun and Weeks will cool down by the time McGehee and company pick it up.

Overall we should get the same production we had last season mainly because we have the same players as last season. If one or two players have an off year another one or two will have a better than expected season. Just like last season when Hart and Weeks picked up the slack from Fielder and Braun's off seasons.

[JohnBriggs12]

Even when things are going well, people complain. I am so glad I don't live in that world.

 

I just for the life of me cannot understand why they would insist on being so miserable and trying to find fault with everyone/everything.

 

Enjoy the good times. The Brewers are making me happy and on a small roll right now. Why not look at the positives? sure is more fun in life that way. Call me crazy I guess.

A team wins 6 of 7, that includes 3 shutouts, and someone starts a thread that focuses on a few (mostly complementary) guys that aren't yet up to their career norms after 11 games. Had the internet existed in 1982, imagine the trashing of poor Roy Howell and Marshall Edwards that would have taken place. Or how about Charlie Moore? A starting corner OF with a .659 OPS and an OBP under .300? Charlie would have been run out of town with this crowd by those pining for the return of Sixto Lezcano or the promotion of Kevin Bass.

 

The reality is 30 years from now, when people will be reminiscing about the great 2011 Brewers, nobody will remember that Mark Kotsay was even on the team, or that they survived with a journeyman shortstop (what was his name?), or that they rotated CFers. It's the stars that carry the great teams and if the Brewers achieve it will be behind Braun, Fielder and Weeks with help from Hart, McGehee, Lucroy.

 

Don't get me wrong. I'm not above booing players when the team is under-performing. But when a team is going good, I'd never think to boo the few guys that may be struggling at the time. For better or worse, they are our guys for now, whether or not you wish they had someone else in there or not.

[homer]

Is there ever a time when all the players are hitting well on any team? Each player will struggle at times and be hot at times. Chances are Prince, Braun and Weeks will cool down by the time McGehee and company pick it up.

Overall we should get the same production we had last season mainly because we have the same players as last season. If one or two players have an off year another one or two will have a better than expected season. Just like last season when Hart and Weeks picked up the slack from Fielder and Braun's off seasons.

You could argue that Weeks has already cooled down. He's 6 for his last 27. If he had started out that way people would have been screaming for his head.

[homer]

The reality is 30 years from now, when people will be reminiscing about the great 2011 Brewers, nobody will remember that Mark Kotsay was even on the team, or that they survived with a journeyman shortstop (what was his name?), or that they rotated CFers.

I remember Rob Picciolo very well. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Brian002100]

Some interesting responses. I will admit when I posted, it was after a frustrating day at work so I was in the mood to argue about anything.

 

However, my simple point was that this current roll the Crew is on is a bit deceiving and I don't think we should be too excited with this team right now. A lineup with 3 performing hitters and 6 below average players is not going to make it. Its almost as though an overconfidence is taking over and everyone is writing off these bad starts because the Brewers record is decent. I certainly realize its only 11 games in - that is actually the very start of my post so its funny how everyone started attacking the small sample size as if I was unaware of this fact.

 

This is a classic problem when looking at data - do you use a smaller sample size that is more current or a larger sample size that is more dated? I clearly understood that I was using a small sample size, but it was for the specific purpose of evaluating how the team actually played over a stretch where they went 6-5, therefore, it was the correct sample size to use. My post was meant to warn that we shouldn't get too excited yet and then to pose the question of whether the players would start to play closer to their averages or if we were headed for a worse record.

 

I am certainly not known as a pessimist so its not like I am trying to point out something just to bring everyone down. Again, as I have stated many times, with this lineup, if they produce as they have, we could be headed for a tumble.

 

To those who posted about Gomez's defense, I will agree with you on that, but I still have a hard time swallowing the fact that we have a player in the lineup solely for defense at the #2 spot much less in the lineup at all. Maybe the batting order will resolve itself when Hart comes back.

[RockCoCougars]

I know it's only 11 games into the season, but this roll (after starting 0-3) will not continue with these guys in the lineup...

 

Gomez - OPS of .537 for a #2 hitter is horrendous. That could be an all-time low for a #2 hitter.

It's not.... Chris Dickerson, who was a lot of people's season saver for Gomez, ironically is hitting in the 2 hole.... for the International League's Scranton Red Barons, with an OPS of .505. I'm still waiting for that first dinger from him, no extra base hits either. Yes, I know, small sample, and he's probably still playing through that injury from last season. I'm sure that he's playing tremendous defense though.

[CheezWizHed]

A lineup with 3 performing hitters and 6 below average players is not going to make it.

 

But I think that is a bit of the point... No one expects those 6 to continue to under perform. McGehee will bounce back. Hart will return. Lucroy just returned. Then add improvements in pitching with Grienke, Parra and Hawkins...

 

So after a bad start of the season, they have bounced back strong. I don't think anyone is basing their WS plans based on these first 11 games (in either direction).

 

In fact, rarely does anyone make drastic changes based on 11 games. That was the small sample police's point. No manager is going to drop McGehee to 8th in the lineup based on 11 games.

[Thurston Fluff]

A lineup with 3 performing hitters and 6 below average players is not going to make it.

 

How often does the lineup ever have more than 3 hot hitters at a time?

[greeg35]

Yes, I know, small sample

 

 

So why use it as evidence?

[Brian002100]

No manager is going to drop McGehee to 8th in the lineup based on 11 games.

But why not? Why not adjust lineups more frequently for current trends that players are on? It's not like if he gets dropped to 8th he has to stay there. Lineups should be more dynamic.

 

It's not like we are talking about moving Albert Pujlos in the lineup, this is Casey McGehee, a guy who has had two good seasons but has possibly hit his peak and is off to a rough start.

[lcbj68c]

All teams have holes. The Brewers really don't have too many. ~ AndThat

 

I don't know why more people don't understand this. While I'll welcome the author to the board, this topic is pretty ridiculous. This isn't the All-Star game. Your team will not overachieve for every man 1 through 25. McGehee has almost singlehandedly been worth 1 win. Gomez has played above average defense in the field. Yeah, Morgan has a fire in his belly and it's been nice to see. Short of some early mistakes by Roenicke handling the bullpen, this team has been pretty good. The offense doesn't need to do any more than what they have been doing. The sooner people realize that not every starter is going to be .300/.390/.800, the sooner they can enjoy the season and quit looking for the falloff.

[Thurston Fluff]

Why not adjust lineups more frequently for current trends that players are on?

 

Because it's impossible to tell when a player will suddenly start to hit again and when they will stop hitting. If you continuously change according to 10 game stretches you will always be dropping players in the order who will likely out hit the guy who went up the order. Add in the pressing factor any player will have when he knows a bad 10 days gets him bumped or benched and you have a recipe for prolonged slumps and overall bad seasons.

Fact is the better overall hitters are the better option to hit well no matter how they played the last 10 days or so. If given a significant stretch someone is still struggling then it might be time to rethink their spot in the lineup. When that time is I think depends on the specific player. The more established the hitter the longer leash he should have.

[Raw Biz]

No manager is going to drop McGehee to 8th in the lineup based on 11 games.

But why not? Why not adjust lineups more frequently for current trends that players are on? It's not like if he gets dropped to 8th he has to stay there. Lineups should be more dynamic.

Because players aren't robots. There is a human element to the game and continually switching lineup positions can mess with a player's head. He may put more pressure on himself to succeed and end up playing even worse, trying too hard. I think this happened with Prince a few years ago. He hadn't hit many home runs to start the season and you could tell he was over-swinging to compensate for that. For the most part, lineups should be consistent (at least vs. RHP and LHP), with maybe a few switches every once in awhile. I still don't know what makes you think that McGehee should hit 8th. He has an .800 career MLB OPS in basically 2 seasons and a .740 career MiLB OPS in 6 seasons. Even if he reverts to his MiLB numbers, he would still be a solid 6 hitter, especially when we have Gomez/Morgan, Yuni, and Lucroy playing.

[Ennder]

Having holes are fine but having black holes that can be replaced with players on the roster or easily through free agency is not. Starting Betancourt every day is as bad a decision as going into the season with Suppan penciled in as the #5 starter would have been this year.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...nth=0&season1=2008&ind=0

 

From 2008 through today Betancourt has been the 2nd worse full time player in the majors and it is pretty inexcusable that we went into the season with him as our SS. Sure if we go to the playoffs nobody will remember the bit players but when we miss the playoffs by a game or two you can probably point directly at these guys as the reason we didn't make it and these are players that could have easily been replaced.