Will this be a breakout year for Chris Narveson?

[Vgmastr]

Narveson has always been one of my favorite players ever since the end of the '09 season when we plugged him into the rotation and he had a few good starts in a row to finish the year off. In fact, in the December clubhouse sale that year, Narveson's name plate was in the $10 pile with the AAAA types and I still regret not buying it. He was a big prospect for the Cardinals before an injury, and for some reason I really thought he would break out in '10. He didn't, but he did put up an ok season last season while bouncing in between the bullpen and rotation. Now this season, he was assured a spot in the rotation right out off the box, and in 13 IP he hasn't given up a single run. In fact, he hasn't even really been in any kind of trouble other than the first inning tonight, and that was only because Nieves couldn't block a third strike. He's done it against two good offensive teams as well. So is this start a fluke, or will Melvin's old "lefties take longer to develop" theory hold true?

[Ennder]

It wouldn't surprise me if he had a good year but I need to see how he pitches when his location is off since he doesn't have great stuff to fall back on. Last year he had really good stretches and really bad stretches.

[TooLiveBrew]

At least early tonight his location was off. But the Cubs kept missing and/or chasing. Not sure if that speaks more to Narveson's stuff or the Cubs hitters' lack of discipline, though.

 

Really great to see Chris get off to such a dominant start this season. Nothing jumps out at you when you watch him pitch, aside from the amount of swings & misses he generates. Can anyone that knows mechanics weigh in if his are a big reason why he's successful? (hiding the ball, changeup arm speed, etc.)

[bork]

He had a pretty good second half last year as well. Cutting down on walks has helped. But even when he was pitching better, high pitch counts kept him from getting through 6 innings with regularity.

 

2nd half stats:

5-3

14 GS

81 IP (5.8 innings/start)

24 BB (2.7BB/9)

66 K (7.3K/9)

3.89 ERA

1.17 WHIP

 

EDIT: I see that 6 of his last 7 starts last year were 6+ innings, so maybe he is starting to figure it out.

[dlk9s]

One thing that he's done really well so far is mix up his pitches. Looks like the batters have been really off balance against him. Plus, there's enough difference in speed amongst his three pitches (75 mph curve, 79-80 mph change, 88 mph fastball) to give hitters trouble. One great example was in tonight's game against Soriano. I think it was maybe a 2-1 pitch and Soriano watched a fastball right down the pipe. To me, that was very much the result of the control, variety, and lower speeds of his other pitches.

 

His arm angle seems a little tricky, too. Nothing comes in straight with him.

[igor67]

Definitely some interesting numbers, I could learn to live with Wolf being the 5th starter.

[JohnBriggs12]

It wouldn't surprise me if he had a good year but I need to see how he pitches when his location is off since he doesn't have great stuff to fall back on. Last year he had really good stretches and really bad stretches.

 

If your definintion of "great stuff" is based entirely on the radar gun, then yeah, his stuff isn't great. Cliff Lee hits, what, 92-93 on the gun? Is his "stuff" not great too? Narveson's got an excellent change and a very good curve that he commands very well (sort of like Lee in that regard too), that he uses to set up his 88-89 fastball. When your location isn't off game after game, it's not happenstance either, it's a skill. If you look inside his 2010 numbers (which I would argue WAS a breakout year), he had a better WHIP as a starter last year than Gallardo.

[Rillo]

I vaguely remember Rock and BA talking last year about Capuano helping him with his cutter. It seems like since that point last year he has been racking up more K's and getting deeper into games.

[umphrey]

Anyone else remember Narveson tending to pitch a bad 1st inning and then cruising through 5 shut out innings? It was clear it was just a small mental hurdle he had to get over to become a reliable starter. I didn't know if he would get over it (Parra didn't with a similar situation) but that is why I've held high hopes for him. He seems to have adjusted. I was worried when the first inning yesterday started getting out of hand after the 3rd out reached base on a wild pitch. It is highly encouraging that even with bad luck he can compose himself.

[Ennder]

If your definintion of "great stuff" is based entirely on the radar gun, then yeah, his stuff isn't great

 

Stuff is usually movement and velocity. Narveson lives off of location so if his location is off he is very hittable. When say Tim Lincecum's location is off he still gets a lot of swings and misses. So yeah I need to see how Narveson pitches in games where he just can't find his location, will he figure out ways to minimize the damage or will he have disaster starts like he had last year.

[joepepsi]

I think it was Narveson that Kranitz talked about the other day on the radio pregrame broadcast. He said in the past Narveson wouldn't throw his changeup early in the game. But Kranitz wants his starters to come out throwing their best stuff and get ahead of hitters right away to start the game. His first start Narveson was throwing changeups in the first inning.

 

This strategy makes sense to me. Start the game with your best stuff, get the outs while you can and see how the game progresses.

[WarhawkJoe]

joepepsi's thoery makes sense to me as well. It seems to me that he is mixing up his pitches more earlier in the game than last year, and more so than other starters with a more dominant fastball. It seems to me (based strictly on observation) like Yovani throws a lot of fastballs in the first few innings, and I think Sheets was similar in not working in a third pitch until the 2nd or 3rd time through the order. I think that's the main issue with using all your stuff the 1st time through - you don't have the extra wrinkle up your sleeve to bring out the 2nd or 3rd time through, thus limiting your effectiveness in the 6th inning and beyond. I see nothing wrong with Narveson coming at the opponent with the full arsenal right away given his lack of a dominant fastball, this just might mean he only goes a couple times through the order effectively and the bullpen will need to be relied on for 3ish innings.

[davemakovec]

Kranitz was talking about that with Gallardo, too. Fangraphs, I think, had a blog post about it leading to his CG SO - Kranitz is trying to get these pitchers to attack hitters with their best stuff from the get-go.

[Warning Track Power]

I vaguely remember Rock and BA talking last year about Capuano helping him with his cutter. It seems like since that point last year he has been racking up more K's and getting deeper into games.

It's funny, something about Narveson's delivery on Saturday reminded me so much of Capuano's. I know Cappy was a little quicker to the plate than Narveson but there is a similar hitch right before the ball is thrown that may be the source of hitter's confusion against him.

 

 

[prophet]

What I like so far this season, is he's getting ahead of the count with his off speed stuff. Throwing that stuff for strike one instead of just putting a fastball over the plate always seams like a good strategy. I also love the fact that, he gets the ball from the catcher and is ready to pitch. He keeps the game flowing and it may not seem like much, but sometimes umpires will give you the borderline calls when you don't take forever between pitches. Cappy was the same way, and Sheets always worked fast. I know I'm knitpicking but that was always my problem with guys like Doug Davis. Even when he was on it was brutal watching him pitch, and when he was off, it was torture. Not saying I know what is going on in umpires heads, but maybe that had something to do with Davis rarely getting those borderline strikes.