Better without Fielder?

[rluzinski]

Even with his terrible defense, Prince projects at around 3 wins above average for 2011. With some of the glaring holes in the Brewer's current lineup (SS and CF), I think there are scenarios where the Brewers could get better this year by trading him. Betancourt is replacement level and Gomez is about a win below average. Trading Prince for an average 1B, SS and CF would probably make the team better. Perhaps Gamel can take over in a few months and Melvin can free up some money with a move like that.

 

So hard to speculate on stuff like this, though, since we have no idea what's really available via trade.

[Warning Track Power]

rluzinski[/b]]Even with his terrible defense, Prince projects at around 3 wins above average for 2011. With some of the glaring holes in the Brewer's current lineup (SS and CF), I think there are scenarios where the Brewers could get better this year by trading him. Betancourt is replacement level and Gomez is about a win below average. Trading Prince for an average 1B, SS and CF would probably make the team better. Perhaps Gamel can take over in a few months and Melvin can free up some money with a move like that.

 

So hard to speculate on stuff like this, though, since we have no idea what's really available via trade.

To trade Fielder now you would have to deal him to a team who will go after him in the offseason. This limits where the trade partners are. Any deal would almost assuredly be reliant upon an extension and a window to negotiate an extension would be given. So who can afford him and who has the pieces we'd need to deal him in season. Based on that criteria, I'd say the Nationals, Orioles, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Mariners. We're not trading him to Chicago so they are out. The Angels don't have a SS that is significantly better. The Dodgers SS (Furcal) is a FA after this season. The Yankees don't have a SS we'd deal for. The Mariners with Ackley, Wilson, Figgins, Ryan have decent options but aren't legit playoff contenders so why deal for Fielder when they can sign him in the offseason. That leaves the Nationals and Orioles.

 

I'd have to imagine the Orioles or Nationals would make JJ or Ian Desmond available in a Fielder deal. But you don't just deal Fielder for JJ from the O's. That's where the additional pieces fit and why I think a Jones/Hardy deal from the Orioles for Fielder makes sense for both teams. Lee and Guerrero are both FAs after this season so the O's could flip one or the other for a prospect and not blink with an acquired and resigned Fielder. Jones is a stud and losing him would stink for the O's, but Fielder is a superstar and would likely hit 50 HRs a year in that ballpark. You make that deal everytime if you are the O's in my opinion because Fielder is resigned. You don't even contemplate dealing Jones without Fielder being resigned. Hardy is more filler as he fills a massive hole for us. As for the Nationals, I am less familiar with them and their system but certainly an Ian Desmond SS would be worth a resigned Fielder, especially consdiering they have Zimmerman, Werth and the upcoming Bryce Harper and Strasburg and Zimmermann as the pitchers. They could be very close with a traded for and resigned Fielder and when they get Strasburg back. What would make sense for us from the Nationals besides Ian Desmond?

[monty57]

To trade Fielder now you would have to deal him to a team who will go after him in the offseason.

 

Not necessarily. Any team looking to make the playoffs that could use an upgrade at 1B/DH would be a trade target. I agree with rluzinski that it's tough to speculate at this point. First, it's far too early for us to believe we're out of the playoffs, and second it's far too early to determine what other teams will be in the playoff hunt and what the market will look like.

 

As to the original question, I agree with most posters that we will not get better simply by Prince leaving, but there are scenarios in which we could be better next year than we are this year. If we're out of the playoff hunt in July, then a trade makes all kinds of sense to shore up holes on the MLB team and re-supply the farm. If we hold him the entire season, then we'd have to use the money wisely. I'd be all for making a big push for Reyes, Rollins or Furcal. Their improvement over Betancourt should negate much of the decline from Prince to Gamel. If Schafer gets (and stays) healthy this year, he would likely be an improvement in CF in 2012.

[endaround]

Keep in mind that Morgan is now Brewers property for a the next 4 seasons(including this one).

[Hate those Rodents]

Is that correct End? I thought we just had him this year and next and then he's a free agent.

[endaround]

He hasn't hit arby yet according to Cot's. After this year he'll have less than 4 years service time.

[Invader3K]

Baseball-reference.com says Morgan is a free agent in 2015.

[DHonks]

Trade #3 Prince to Los Angeles for Matt Kemp and James Loney:

If the Brewers do this, I may give up following the team. Having worked around these two, I can say that it's possible that Kemp is now more mature, but I like James Loney about as much as I like Terrell Buckley, Barry Bonds, and....you get the picture.

 

The Hardy/Jones trade would be nice.

[LouisEly]

JJ Hardy has trade value?

[jerichoholicninja]

The Freeman trade is the only one that makes sense for the Brewers. Hardy has little value and Kemp has backtracked the last few years.

[Ennder]

JJ Hardy has trade value?

He hit over .300 with a .791 OPS after coming back from his injury last year. Even in his off years his defense is good enough to give him positive value. Hardy most certainly has trade value.

[TheCrew07]

As long as he can get comfortable at 1B, Gamel is a huge upgrade, athletically, over Prince. Whenever I think about what might have been with Gamel at 3B, I remember this play: http://milwaukee.brewers....y.jsp?content_id=4620435

 

I don't think the team will necessarily be better off without Prince... but if you analyze it as a comparison btw. keeping Prince at $150M+ for the next 5+ seasons, versus having that money available to use on other players, then yes the Brewers might be better off without him in the big picture. Plus he'll probably result in a couple of compensation picks to boot.

That's the Gamel play that's always stuck in my mind too TLB... there's blame on both sides, but I don't think there's much doubt Gamel had the tools to be an excellent defensive 3B, and I stick by my assertion that he'll be an excellent 1B because he won't have to make many throws across the diamond.

 

edit. As for the topic of the thread which I neglected to address, I've been willing to trade Fielder since 2008. I wanted to trade him straight up for Shields that summer and I've been open to the possibility of trading him ever since.

 

[HiAndTight]

JJ Hardy has trade value?

Would JJ Hardy be a huge upgrade for the Brewers?

 

 

I would think that would answer that question...

[lcbj68c]

I think I've asked this before, but does Prince have an asthma condition. He is always "huffing" or "hocking" in the dugout.

[prophet]

I think I've asked this before, but does Prince have an asthma condition. He is always "huffing" or "hocking" in the dugout.

When I was in high school and college our first baseman always did the same thing and I asked about it once. He said it was an exercise that he learned to loosen up the abdomen. Apparently, according to him, it helps when stretching for a throw at first base or pivoting to avoid muscle pulls and abdomen cramps. Don't know if I believe him, but his dad is a doctor and told him to do it. So, whatever, who am I to argue?

[nate82]

JJ Hardy has trade value?

Would JJ Hardy be a huge upgrade for the Brewers?

 

 

I would think that would answer that question...

Hardy has zero value when he is sitting on the DL.

[DHonks]

well, the good news is that Fielder has gone on a ridiculous hot streak and so I can forget about this thread for a few more months.

[rluzinski]

I don't understand how the results of a few great games should be used as evidence for or against your question. I think it was a good question.

[pmg4]

Prince is a player that the Brewers have paid their dues on. He is a mature, respected hitter and the rest of the league fears him. Why do you think he laughs at $20M a year? There is no realistic scenario where he leaves and the Brewers get better.

 

So many people here take it as gospel that his offense can be approximated by any "journeyman" and that his defense is a given upgrade as soon as he clears out his locker and dons the pinstripes. If that's true, I posit that we had that before he ever reached the majors. Lyle Overbay (disclaimer, huge Overbay fan) was a consistent doubles hitter with above-average defense. Why didn't we just trade away Prince when we already had the ideal?

 

To those who say that we get better by intelligently using his raise: news flash, the Brewers payroll isn't going up by $15M next year. The reason Prince isn't staying is because the Milwaukee payroll is maxed out. There is no raise that will be better used on your moneyball gems. What he doesn't make in 2012 will be used to retain McGehee, or Greinke, or Marcum.

 

Finally, the Gamel argument: from what I have seen, why does anyone want him in the show? He isn't the prospect he once was, and his major league numbers have been a joke. I respect that the sample size is small, but even if he will ever develop to the level of journeyman respectability, it won't be soon. You want to hurry up and start paying dues on the next guy who will leave if he's any good? Why not just keep the big star for our last real shot for a while?

[HiAndTight]

So many people here take it as gospel

that his offense can be approximated by any "journeyman" and that his

defense is a given upgrade as soon as he clears out his locker and dons

the pinstripes. If that's true, I posit that we had that before he ever reached the majors. Lyle Overbay (disclaimer, huge

Overbay fan) was a consistent doubles hitter with above-average

defense. Why didn't we just trade away Prince when we already had the

ideal?

 

This is absolutely ridiculous. I've yet to hear one-single-person suggest that we can find a journeyman to "approximate" Prince's impact offensively or even come close to doing.

What was ACTUALLY said was that you can find a suitable 1st basemen on the FA market fairly easily, and THEN that money can be used to upgrade other positions as well. It absolutely baffles my mind where you somehow come up with anyone suggesting that Lyle Overbay is anywhere near ideal as compared to Prince Fielder. To a man every-single-Brewers fan would love to have Prince Fielder next year. However as we can't afford it and given the deficiencies of this team, it's a very valid question to ask can we improve next year when we lose Prince and his 16 million dollars by upgrading SS and CF with..again, Furcal and DeJesus for instance.

 

So yes, there is absolutely, undeniably a "realistic" scenario in which we get better.

To those who say that we get better by intelligently using his raise:

news flash, the Brewers payroll isn't going up by $15M next year. The

reason Prince isn't staying is because the Milwaukee payroll is maxed

out. There is no raise that will be better used on your moneyball gems.

What he doesn't make in 2012 will be used to retain McGehee, or

Greinke, or Marcum.

 

Well...this is just flat out wrong. Not sure where you're getting this. Marcum and Greinke are signed through next year and Greinke is being paid the exact same. And the raises to the other two are hardly prohibitive. But the Brewers also signed a TV deal that's due to kick in next year, and they've spent the same amount of money and according to Forbes have made 11-12 million with fewer people attending.

Finally, the Gamel argument: from what I have seen, why does anyone want him in the show?

 

Because he's a very good hitter with a great left handed swing.

He isn't the prospect he once was, and his major league numbers have been a joke.

 

No, they have not.

I respect that the sample size is small

Then honestly....why bring it up? Your basically saying, "I realize there is almost no basis for what I'm saying, but I chose to use this as a factual basis for my argument anyway." And it's not even true. Gamel was fine in the one time he's gotten regular big league AB's a couple years ago and he didn't even get "regular" AB's, just semi-regular.

 

---

but even if he will ever develop to the level of journeyman respectability, it won't be soon.

 

Another ABSOLUTELY ridiculous statement. It won't be anytime soon? Because you say so? He's ready right now to be a very good big league offensive player, but he's not going to supplant Prince or McGehee, so he's in AAA. What HASN'T he done offensively in the minors to make you think this? Since you already admit that it's a small sample size.

You want to hurry up and start paying dues on the next guy who will leave if he's any good?

 

I don't have a clue what this is saying.

Why not just keep the big star for our last real shot for a while?

 

Yeah..we are. The question is AFTER the season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think after Prince leaves this season, we'll see Gamel at 1st, and I wouldn't be surprised if 2012 finds Morgan or whoever's playing SS batting leadoff so the Brewers can move Weeks to the #2 or #3 spot in the order to drive in some more runs.

 

Morgan

Hart

Weeks

Braun

Gamel

McGehee

Lucroy

SS

P

 

Definitely not as strong a lineup without Prince, but I think the overall offense would improve if the Brewers can find a competent leadoff hitter aside from Weeks to get on base in front of him. Rickie's definitely developing into a middle of the order hitter.

[monty57]

but even if he will ever develop to the level of journeyman respectability, it won't be soon.

 

Another ABSOLUTELY ridiculous statement. It won't be anytime soon? Because you say so? He's ready right now to be a very good big league offensive player, but he's not going to supplant Prince or McGehee, so he's in AAA. What HASN'T he done offensively in the minors to make you think this? Since you already admit that it's a small sample size.

 

As much as it sucks for Gamel, the best course for the Brewers is to keep him in the minors this year, where he will likely post an OPS over 1.00 and work on his defense at 1B. While Gamel probably won't be as good offensively as Prince (few are), he should be able to post respectable numbers for league minimum, so that we don't have to go out and pick up an expensive FA 1B.

 

To those who say that we get better by intelligently using his raise: news flash, the Brewers payroll isn't going up by $15M next year. The reason Prince isn't staying is because the Milwaukee payroll is maxed out. There is no raise that will be better used on your moneyball gems. What he doesn't make in 2012 will be used to retain McGehee, or Greinke, or Marcum.

 

Well...this is just flat out wrong. Not sure where you're getting this. Marcum and Greinke are signed through next year and Greinke is being paid the exact same. And the raises to the other two are hardly prohibitive. But the Brewers also signed a TV deal that's due to kick in next year, and they've spent the same amount of money and according to Forbes have made 11-12 million with fewer people attending.

 

We shouldn't see any huge jumps in salary next year, as most of our key players (other than Fielder) are locked up. We will also be done paying for Hawkins and Betancourt. Any extensions to Grienke/Marcum would take effect starting in 2013, when Wolf will also be off the books, probably replaced by someone from within the system. I think it's reasonable to speculate that we could look into extensions for Grienke/Marcum and still add one good player (Furcal/Reyes/Rollins?) at SS or two players who would be upgrades at SS & CF. I also think it's possible, depending on minor league player development, that someone like Wolf or Hart could get traded next offseason, bringing in talent and freeing up cash.

[pmg4]

So many people here take it as gospel

that his offense can be approximated by any "journeyman" and that his

defense is a given upgrade as soon as he clears out his locker and dons

the pinstripes.

This is absolutely ridiculous. I've yet to hear one-single-person suggest that we can find a journeyman to "approximate" Prince's impact offensively or even come close to doing.

 

Re-read the first two posts on this thread and tell me that no one is saying that. If you aren't, good. You're right. I'm not arguing with you on that, then.

the Brewers payroll isn't going up by $15M next year.

Well...this is just flat out wrong. Not sure where you're getting this. Marcum and Greinke are signed through next year and Greinke is being paid the exact same. And the raises to the other two are hardly prohibitive. But the Brewers also signed a TV deal that's due to kick in next year, and they've spent the same amount of money and according to Forbes have made 11-12 million with fewer people attending.

 

The reason I said that money would be spent on those players is that they are the most likely to get extensions (and raises) in an effort to keep together what I hope is a successful 2011 squad. Am I wrong that the payroll is not going up substantially in 2012, because you think it will? I guess we will have to wait and naturally never discuss it again.

Finally, the Gamel argument: (stuff omitted... suffice to say I have less confidence in him than you). I respect that the sample size is small
Then honestly....why bring it up? Your basically saying, "I realize there is almost no basis for what I'm saying, but I chose to use this as a factual basis for my argument anyway."

 

It's because I don't trust him. It didn't take a large sample size for me to lose confidence in Escobar either, and all he proved in a full year was that he is better than Betancourt. Perhaps someday when he is an all-star we will revisit this conversation... but probably not. This is an opinion, after all, not a bet.

 

---

but even if he will ever develop to the level of journeyman respectability, it won't be soon.

Because you say so?

 

Yes. Again: opinion. I'm not excited by his talent. However, it could be because he is necessarily placed side-by-side with Prince Fielder, who is truly a phenomenon as a left-handed bat. Perhaps I will grow to appreciate him, because I do agree that he is the future at first base.

You want to hurry up and start paying dues on the next guy who will leave if he's any good?

I don't have a clue what this is saying.

 

"Paying dues" is the phrase I was using to indicate that a player learns at the major league level, at the cost to the team of high-end production. When Gamel steps in, 1B is downgraded, and even if he becomes a "great" player, I suspect it will be near the end of his arbitration years, so that all folds into my feeling that losing Prince is not going to provide an improvement on what I hope is a good 2011 team.

Why not just keep the big star for our last real shot for a while?

Yeah..we are. The question is AFTER the season.

 

One of the examples in the original question was the trading of Ken Griffey. The idea of a midseason Prince trade has been floated. I am interpreting the original question as: is there "addition by subtraction" by ridding ourselves of a rotten defensive player who is just a HR hitter and may be a bit of a head case? I do not disagree that Prince is 99% likely to be gone soon after this season ends. I don't think there is an upside to it, though.

 

Money will continue to be spent, and positions will be upgraded or not, but Fielder has been a big part of the identity of the Brewers for the past 6 years, and I don't see a Mariners situation coming out of his departure. Name another time time the heart of a team has been removed and the team has improved. I think the Mariners were an aberration, and it would be delusional to expect it in Milwaukee.

[logan82]

Gamel should make up some value with good defense so it isn't to far fetched to think we will not see much drop off from Fielder to Gamel.

[cwolf2012]

"It didn't take a large sample size for me to lose confidence in Escobar either"

 

Did you expect Escobar's bat to be good? You judge these things far too quickly if you completely lost confidence in Escobar after one season.

 

"I don't think there is an upside to it, though."

 

There are absolutely scenarios where we take 15 mil - raises and upgrade our weakest position (SS) by more than the dropoff from Fielder to Gamel. Gamel could easily post a 3-4 WAR season as a 1B. I'm not counting on it, but it could happen. Fielder certainly has more upside as a hitter, but Gamel *will* be a better defender. I'm guessing that he will be among the top 10 1B for UZR his rookie season because all of his strengths as a 3B apply to 1B, and his biggest weakness does not. It's not like Fielder has been putting up 8 WAR a season. In the last 4 seasons he's posted a total of 19 WAR. That's very good, but by no means irreplaceable.

 

Regardless of the last paragraph, you've now decided that after 167 total plate appearances in the majors and a .750 OPS by Gamel, that he is a lost cause. That is the biggest snap judgment I've ever seen considering a .750 OPS by no means bad for a rookie. Want to take a guess at what Fielder's OPS for his first 170 PAs was?

 

Approximately .800. Was he a lost cause as well?