Question about pitching projections

[Oldcity]

I've been looking at BP's manual, and PECOTA seems to have every starter under 200 innings, including guys who have thrown full seasons a few years in a row. Greinke for 179 innings, Gallardo for 150, Marcum for 134... And it's like that for every team, not just the Brewers.

I see they have Mark Buehrle for 209, but he's thrown 200+ for 10 straight years, and skimming through, he's about the only one I've found.

What is the reason for this? I'm guessing it's because they just assume it's unlikely for someone to throw 200+ innings because so few people do it anymore?

[Ennder]

Because on average pitchers who have thrown 200+ innings for the past 3-4 years throw under 200 innings the next year. It is extremely rare for a pitcher to go for 200+ innings even 3 years in a row much less 4 or 5.

[topper09er]

Here is a good article on how these projections work:

 

http://www.hardballtimes....rticle/forecasting-2006/

 

Basically if you take say the top 20 listed in a projection their projected group average IP will be near the actual group average IP even though on an individual basis the values will differ a lot from the projections. It is not because they think all these guys will get injured or that it is difficult to throw 200 innings in a row.

 

Also since 2001, there have been 170 pitchers throw at least 1 200+ IP seasons.

 

The following players have had such streaks:

MBeuhrle 01-10 (10)

JVazquez 00-09 (9.9) (only pitched 198 IP in 2004, 4 straight 200+IP seasons before and 5 after)

LHernandez 00-07 (9.9) (pitched 199.2 IP in 1999 and 234 in 1998)

Jmoyer 01-06 (6)

FGarcia 01-06 (6)

BZito 01-06 (6)

CZambrano 03-07 (5)

RHalladay 06-10 (5)

BWebb 04-08 (5)

JSantana 04-08 (5)

ROswalt 04-08 (5)

JLackey 03-07 (4.9) (only 198.1 IP in 2004)

CCSabathia 07-10 (4)

GMaddux 03-06 (4)

APettitte 05-08 (4)

JGarland 04-07 (4)

THudson 01-03 (3)

RClemens 03-05 (3)

RJohnson 04-06 (3)

CLee 08-10 (3)

JLackey 05-07 (3)

 

And these are just hand picked so there are probably more, including this 5 year (brown) streak:

JSuppan 99-03 (5)

[rluzinski]

They are giving you the average expected IP, not the most likely. A typical workhorse might look something like this (actual numbers for illustration only):

 

200-220 IP: 40% chance

180-200 IP 25%

140-180 IP: 25%

100 - 140 IP: 20%

Below 100: 5%

 

While it's most likely that that player will end up with between 200-220 IP, the average brought down by the small chance of missing significant time.

[Oldcity]

Makes sense. Thanks.