just thinking about Fielder

[DHonks]

I know most of us expect the Brewers cannot compete for Fielder. But doesn't it seem a bit crazy to want a massive contract when there are many better 1st basemen? Who all is better or arguably in his class:

 

Pujols

Votto

Texeira

Gonzalez

Howard

Morneau (does he still play 1b or DH?)

Cabrera

etc

 

Kind of crazy to think that Fielder is the third best 1st baseman in the division.

[bigredrobbo]

Better:

 

Pujols

Votto

Cabrera

Teixeira (defense is important too!)

 

 

Same:

 

Howard

Gonzalez

Dunn

Morneau

 

Worse:

 

Pretty much everyone else

[Warning Track Power]

bigredrobbo[/b]]Better:

 

Pujols

Votto

Cabrera

Teixeira (defense is important too!)

 

 

Same:

 

Howard

Gonzalez

Dunn

Morneau

 

Worse:

 

Pretty much everyone else

Gonzalez and Howard are both better than Fielder too. Fielder is on par with Morneau, but better than Dunn

 

Gonzalez has been extraordinarily overlooked because he played in SD. Believe those predictions of .330, 40+ HRs, 130 RBIs. That guy is insanely talented, was surrounded by mediocre talent and played in a National Park at Petco. Plus he can pick it at 1B. He'll prove to be the 2nd best 1B in baseball by far this season. There are going to be three tiers after this season:

 

1. Pujols

2. Gonzalez

3. Everyone else

[RockCoCougars]

I think that Prince is going to find a soft market this winter. This depends solely on how well he plays this year- if he has a monster season, he'll get paid. If he has another down season like last year, he may regret turning down the $100 million.

[Invader3K]

There will be demand, but how many teams realistically need a big bopper 1B and can afford to pay him what he wants? We'll see, I guess.

[Ennder]

I think you are underrating Fielder a bit here, especially when you consider health, age etc. He'll certainly have value and I think a team like Baltimore will be a good match for him.

[DHonks]

There could be bidding from teams like San Fran, both Chicago teams, Baltimore, and I wouldn't rule out the Astros, M's, Cards, or the Yanks/BoSox

[owbc]

Fielder will get at least $150 million even if it is a down year. Even more if he has an MVP-caliber year like many are expecting.

[Oldcity]

He's definitely better than Howard, but the rest of that list looks pretty good. He'll get plenty, but I don't expect it to approach Teixeira's deal.

[Ennder]

At this point in their career I'd ake him over Morneau as well, since he hasn't stayed healthy a full season in the past 3 years now. Taking him over Howard is a no brainer in my book.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Prince is gonna get paid, there's no doubt about it. There's some team out there that will give him some insane amount of money. Really though, I don't care at this point. I hope he tears it up, and wins MVP this year. That will help us get to the playoffs and make a run at the World Series. I love Prince, and it will be sad to see him go, but it's inevitable, because no matter what he's gonna get paid, A LOT.

[brettac1]

I get the feeling the coming free agency market/contracts are going to be quite depressed. Similar to the last time when gas prices and stuff went nuts, teams spent less in the offseason (3 seasons ago?). Fielder is already playing with a short deck, since the market for him is basically the AL. He'll likely be a Yankee, which is a market entirely it's own, but I can't see him getting $100 million or something insane like $150 million. And, I think the Brewers will end up being thankful that Boras doesn't advise his clients to sign before they hit the market. I love the guy as a Brewer, but I hardly think he's a wise long-term investment.

[danzig6767]

I get the feeling the coming free agency market/contracts are going to be quite depressed. Similar to the last time when gas prices and stuff went nuts, teams spent less in the offseason (3 seasons ago?). Fielder is already playing with a short deck, since the market for him is basically the AL. He'll likely be a Yankee, which is a market entirely it's own, but I can't see him getting $100 million or something insane like $150 million. And, I think the Brewers will end up being thankful that Boras doesn't advise his clients to sign before they hit the market. I love the guy as a Brewer, but I hardly think he's a wise long-term investment.

You can't see him getting 100 million?

 

Now i can certainly see it being very possible that Prince won't be able to get to the 150 million area, especially if the Yankees don't get involved because they have Teixeira and starting pitching looks to be a much bigger need. Plus, if the Yankees went for another slugging guy at first even though they have Teixeira, Pujols could be more in the Yankees shoot for the best mentality.

 

Either way, i'd be extremely surprised if Prince's next contract isn't for over 100 million in total dollars unless he doesn't have a good season this year. Exactly how much over 100 million though i have no clue.

[The Truth]

I of course will hope for much better but I think, essentially, the Prince Fielder of 2010 will be who Prince is the rest of his career, including in 2011...pitchers have started to figure him out, and will continue to pitch around him alot...he'll start out slow (again) and will finish with 33 HR's or so and a .860-..880 OPS

[Ennder]

Pitchers didn't figure him out at all last year, he just got really pull happy and tried to hit everything out of the park the first month+ of the season. Fielder is to blame for his slump much more than pitchers were. If pitchers had figured him out he wouldn't have put up over a .900 OPS for 3 months straight after the starting slump. His K/BB is improving and that is generally a good sign not a sign of failure.

 

Even if he generally sits at an .880 OPS the elite OBP makes him one of the best hitters in baseball since OBP is much more valuable than SLG anyway.

[JohnBriggs12]

"OBP is much more valuable than SLG anyway"

 

Not for the cleanup hitter. It's the threat of slugging that increases OBP. If he isn't the threat he was say in 2009, his OBP will start to suffer too.

[Ennder]

"OBP is much more valuable than SLG anyway"

 

Not for the cleanup hitter. It's the threat of slugging that increases OBP. If he isn't the threat he was say in 2009, his OBP will start to suffer too.

His power is never going to drop to the point where this is a serious concern until later in his career and his K/BB improved as the year went on last year so it doesn't seem like the 'adjustment' was to start throwing him more strikes at any point. If they start to throw more strikes he'll just hit more HR and if they throw fewer strikes he'll have a higher OBP, he's going to be one of the better hitters out there no matter what.

 

The key is to not swing at the junk, as long as he isn't swinging at junk he's going to put up elite stats because he becomes a no win situation.

[Oxy]

"OBP is much more valuable than SLG anyway"

 

Not for the cleanup hitter. It's the threat of slugging that increases OBP. If he isn't the threat he was say in 2009, his OBP will start to suffer too.

His power is never going to drop to the point where this is a serious concern until later in his career and his K/BB improved as the year went on last year so it doesn't seem like the 'adjustment' was to start throwing him more strikes at any point. If they start to throw more strikes he'll just hit more HR and if they throw fewer strikes he'll have a higher OBP, he's going to be one of the better hitters out there no matter what.

 

The key is to not swing at the junk, as long as he isn't swinging at junk he's going to put up elite stats because he becomes a no win situation.

I agree with this but it is somewhat dependent upon the situation and the offense around him. If nobody can drive him in, a walk doesn't do a whole lot of good. Similarly, late in a close game with 2 outs and nobody on base it would behoove him to expand his strike zone a little bit.

 

I sometimes wondered why back in the day when Barry Bonds was getting intentionally walked once or twice a game he didn't swing at the first intentional ball just to at least see what the pitcher would do next. Obviously, Prince is nowhere near that sort of dominance, so I don't advocate for him to expand the strike zone THAT much. But I would like to see him foul off some close ones to try and get the pitcher to make a mistake.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Even with Pujols becoming a FA after this year, I would think STL will offer him the world to stay...I could also see a situation where they see what they could get for him at the deadline this year if they're struggling. The Cubs are going to be a player for a free agent 1b, too, although there are lots of mixed messages about how much their new ownership are willing (let alone able) to add to payroll. They do have alot coming off the books for 2012, but I think it's stupid for them to turn all that savings back into 1 player and a contract that will look similar to many of the deals that have crippled their flexibility over the past 2 seasons.

 

That said, Baltimore for Fielder would be the ideal team to offer him bigtime money - AL East big market wanna-be with money to spend and a DH position to fill once Fielder can't play the field anymore...perfect team to offer him both bigtime dollars and bigtime years (6+, something an NL team would be insane to do).

 

I think Milwaukee's best option is actually to let him walk after this season, use the compensation picks to acquire additional prospects in next year's draft, and open up the 1B position for a guy like Braun, Hart, or Gamel (if he ever proves deserving of a fulltime MLB gig). The Brewers need to keep building their pitching depth as an organization, so resigning Fielder only to watch him start declining once that body starts breaking down is a recipe for disaster. Fielder's been remarkably healthy during his career in Milwaukee - I'd hope he isn't a Brewer by the first time he gets a significant leg injury (knock on wood). It's going to happen to a guy that size.

[DHonks]

Baltimore also makes a ton of sense because Fielder likely will be in serious decline before his contract ends...hmmm, sounds like Javy Lopez, Albert Belle, etc.

[rcon14]

Better:

Pujols

Gonzalez

Cabrera

Votto

Teixeira

[brettac1]

Baltimore also makes a ton of sense because Fielder likely will be in serious decline before his contract ends...hmmm, sounds like Javy Lopez, Albert Belle, etc.

That's a definite one. They are one of the kings of the bad contract. I'd say the chance he's in the AL East is about 80%.