Forget the negativity, here's why to get excited

[PrinceEatMeat]

Braun/Fielder/Weeks/Hart/McGehee: not many teams have 5 hitters of that caliber.

 

Greinke/Gallardo/Marcum: not many teams have a top 3 in their rotation that good.

 

No Ken Macha, add Ron Roenicke.

Those 3 things are good enough for me to be excited. Actually the last one got me really excited. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[RockCoCougars]

"Edit: Nevermind. CF is gonna suck big time this year on offense."

 

That about sums it up. I was very content on waiting for Gomez to suck (which he will), and have Dickerson step in and put up a .350/.400 line with comparable defense.

 

Now, we're looking at an UPSIDE of .320/.380.

 

Ugh.

All I know is that Granderson had better play through his injury, because Dickerson is going to go all Lou Gehrig on him.

 

Why would you think that Gomez is a sure thing to fail? The same folks who liked Cameron seem to be those who like Dickerson. Personally, I think that 'advanced' stats overvalue both of them. Cammy was a streaky player and his bat disappeared for weeks at a time. His defense was good, but I remember some crucial misplays as well. I think that his 'leadership' was overrated as well. That clubhouse was in major disarray in 2008, and had the Mets not given it away, the Brewers would not have made the playoffs. Dickerson is mostly overrated by the stats because he put up a decent half season as a rookie, since then he's done nothing to prove that he can match that production- or stay healthy enough to so do, for that matter. He showed nothing in a Brewers uniform in any aspect of the game whatsoever. You can use the 'small sample' argument all that you want, but the Reds wouldn't have given him away for Edmonds had they thought that he had any upside. It's not like he was some green 22 year old kid either.

[endaround]

Gomez has only played himself to the bench the past two years but I'm sure this year will be different.

[TooLiveBrew]

He's really focusing on hitting line drives up the middle!

 

 

he's done nothing to prove that he can match that production- or stay healthy enough to so do, for that matter. He showed nothing in a Brewers uniform in any aspect of the game whatsoever.

 

Well if we're just completely going to ignore defense, then Gomez hasn't either. And this quoted statement applies even moreso to him. It really makes me laugh how hard you hate on Dickerson because he's never done anything, yet you completely manage to overlook that Gomez has done even less.

[RockCoCougars]

What did Dickerson show on defense during his tenure in Milwaukee? Gomez is still fairly young, and showed flashes in Minnesota and even last season. There is upside there where there is little to none with Dickerson.

[brettac1]

Mike Cameron is possibly the most underrated Brewer of the past decade and it has nothing to do with his leadership.

[TooLiveBrew]

What did Dickerson show on defense during his tenure in Milwaukee?

 

That he was another good defensive CF. Even you should be able to admit that you're just not being objective about the guy.

 

I'd really like to hear about these "flashes" that Gomez has shown. I mean, you go out of your way to knock that Dickerson has only had one decent season. Trouble is, that's one more than Gomez has ever had. I like Gomez's physical tools, and I wouldn't be so pessimistic of his chances at turning into a useful player if he'd done anything of note in his professional career at the plate. He hasn't.

[HiAndTight]

Strikeouts and batting average are terrible to use for evaluating MLB hitters. Please use better stats.

$6 million dollars. That is a useful stat. $6 million dollars for a .809 OPS and great leadership? It could be argued that the money could have been better spent but we did make the playoffs and Cameron was a big part of that team. I think most here would be thrilled if Gomez posted an .809 OPS this season

The most telling stat in '08 for Cameron was his .507 postseason OPS (extremely small sample, though I'll note that his career postseason OPS is .581, with a career .174 batting average in 92 postseason at-bats)

$6m is a steal for good defense and a .809 OPS in CF. You can safely ignore the rest. Postseason stats are about the same as taking a random series from the season. Means nothing.

If you don't believe strikeouts and BA are not good for evaluating hitters by now, I don't know what else to say. They are not useful at all unless you are comparing 2 players who are otherwise very similar. Gomez so far and Cameron 2008 are not. We have drastically different ways of evaluating players and I think you are using very bad stats as the base for your evaluation.

Not useful at ALL is pushing it quite a bit.

 

There are much better stats out there, but ignoring that they have any value is equally ridiculous.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Mike Cameron is possibly the most underrated Brewer of the past decade and it has nothing to do with his leadership.

I personally think Rickie Weeks is. However, I understand your point.

[RobDeer 45]

Guys, let's get back on track, this is supposed to be a positive thread!!!!!

 

This team is setup to be special this year. Ya we have a few kinks in our armor and we are a little dinged up but hopefully we survive the first month, get everyone on the field and really hit our stride after the first month or two and take it all the way in to the playoffs. Giddyup!

 

Biggest thing to be excited about.........Harry Doyle is will be on the mic all year!

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

Another reason to be excited is based on their spring training record (which we all know is so important unless its a losing record when ST stats don't matter) they are on track for 102 wins. I think that may be enough to win the division.

[Ennder]

Nyger Morgan adds a win to the team since Reed and Kotsay are below replacement level and Morgan should be expected to be an upgrade over Gomez. In a division that should be very close this was a big move.

[HiAndTight]

Mike Cameron is possibly the most underrated Brewer of the past decade and it has nothing to do with his leadership.

I personally think Rickie Weeks is. However, I understand your point.

I'd be inclined to agree with you. It's amazing how often I'm talking to other Brewers fans and I STILL hear that Rickie isn't a leadoff hitter. Not that he would be best served hitting 5th in the order, but that he's not good enough to be a leadoff hitter.

Of course I ask why...and it's because he strikes out too much. Fans have come around on him in that they don't still consider him terrible, but I don't think the average fan who looks almost exclusively at BA/HR/RBI will ever truly be sold on Rickie.

The fact of the matter even when everyone was calling for his head he was a pretty damn good player. Last year he was a great one.

 

Same thing with Cam, except he was a very good defender as well. And both played the game right. So while I discount the importance of chemistry, I don't discount leadership. Hard to watch Rickie take a ball to the chin and then go out there and dog it....

[RockCoCougars]

What did Dickerson show on defense during his tenure in Milwaukee?

 

That he was another good defensive CF. Even you should be able to admit that you're just not being objective about the guy.

 

I'd really like to hear about these "flashes" that Gomez has shown. I mean, you go out of your way to knock that Dickerson has only had one decent season. Trouble is, that's one more than Gomez has ever had. I like Gomez's physical tools, and I wouldn't be so pessimistic of his chances at turning into a useful player if he'd done anything of note in his professional career at the plate. He hasn't.

Just because Dickerson drew a lot of walks his first year in Cincinnati (still a mostly a product of the pitcher if you ask me), doesn't make him a better player than Gomez. He's over three years older, and showed absolutely nothing during his time in Milwaukee with the bat. If you put Gomez and Dickerson out there, which do you think that most GM's would snap up? Personally, I'm more upset about letting Boggs go.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just because Dickerson drew a lot of walks his first year in Cincinnati (still a mostly a product of the pitcher if you ask me), doesn't make him a better player than Gomez. He's over three years older, and showed absolutely nothing during his time in Milwaukee with the bat.

 

Which is clearly all you care about. Again, I'd be interested in hearing about these flashes Gomez has shown. For all you rail on Dickerson, he's at least done something at the plate in real life, as opposed to Gomez.

[joepepsi]

Why bat Rickie 5th? Isn't he going to be a better 3 hitter with his speed and obp? Depending on who replaces Prince in 2011, it seems logical for Rickie to 3rd and Braun 4th.

[RockCoCougars]

In my opinion, it takes no real skill whatsoever to walk. Obviously, it's the trendy thing with OBP and Moneyball, but walks are a product of the pitcher throwing strikes. Do you think Prince walks so much because he has a tremendous eye at the plate, or that the pitchers are pitching around him? Dickerson has walked at a decent clip in his career, but he also strikes out a ton. Kind of like the #9 hitter on the little league team who goes up to bat- knees shaking- with the coach telling him not to swing. Does he walk a lot? Yes. Does he strike out a lot? Yes. At the major league level, a guy who walks and strikes out a lot had better be a slugger, otherwise in my view he's not aggressive enough at the plate. I wonder how many of Dickerson's K's have been of the looking variety? I can argue until I'm blue in the face with Moneyball guys that walks are overrated and strikeouts are underrated, but neither of us will ever change our mind. I disagree with the mantra that 'a walk is as good as a hit' in all cases except for the leadoff batter of the inning or when the bases are loaded.

[Ennder]

Nobody who follows stats thinks a walk is as good as a hit, they are certainly better than an out though. Plate discipline is a skill and it is one that can be developed, there isn't really a question about this at all, it is pretty much proven fact. Sure the pitcher plays a role but that is baseball, more than one player plays a role in every single play.

[RockCoCougars]

Nobody who follows stats thinks a walk is as good as a hit, they are certainly better than an out though. Plate discipline is a skill and it is one that can be developed, there isn't really a question about this at all, it is pretty much proven fact. Sure the pitcher plays a role but that is baseball, more than one player plays a role in every single play.

I will agree with you there. Younger guys tend to have worse plate discipline, and generally start to draw more walks as they improve their offensive prowess and develop a better 'eye'. Robin Yount would be a good example of this- look at his walk totals up until his mid 20's. This is why I'm willing to give Gomez another shot. Obviously, his offensive production last season was not good, but he just has so many tools, I think it would be foolish to give up on him at this point. I'm not convinced that his future is that of a slap hitter either, he's got the frame where he may be able to hit 15-20 homers down the road. Everyone has to remember that he's just 25 years old. I will concede that this is probably the make or break season for him.

[brettac1]

For every Robin Yount, there are 20 Corey Pattersons who never figured it out.

[mothershipconnection]

Dickerson has walked at a decent clip in his career, but he also strikes out a ton.

 

This typically happens with guys who are selective and work counts deep - just compare the league leaders in SO and BB. If you want to see high walk totals, you're going to have to grit your teeth and be mad at a few K's. Prince could have a lower K total, but he'd also take fewer walks and make contact on worse pitches that he'd ground out instead of waiting for one he'll rip for extra bases.

 

I disagree with the mantra that 'a walk is as good as a hit'

 

I've literally never heard anyone say this. That's akin to saying that a ground rule double is just as good as a double.

[ELCABALLO45]

Cameron was at 4.2. Gomez if lucky is a 2 win player.

Gomez was a 2.4 in 08 for the Twins, while hitting just

258

/296/

.360

He is certainly capable of being a 2 with playing time.

[endaround]

That was with an unsustainable (even if measured correctly) 17.8 runs from defense.

[Oldcity]

In my opinion, it takes no real skill whatsoever to walk. Obviously, it's the trendy thing with OBP and Moneyball, but walks are a product of the pitcher throwing strikes.

How do you explain someone like Craig Counsell having a good walk rate then? Or Daric Barton, or Nick Johnson, or Scott Hatteberg, or any other hitter with a good eye/low power combo? Having good plate discipline is definitely a skill, and it's one of the most important skills a player can have.

[NievesNoNO]

Stevo[/b]]

In my opinion, it takes no real skill whatsoever to walk. Obviously, it's the trendy thing with OBP and Moneyball, but walks are a product of the pitcher throwing strikes.

How do you explain someone like Craig Counsell having a good walk rate then? Or Daric Barton, or Nick Johnson, or Scott Hatteberg, or any other hitter with a good eye/low power combo? Having good plate discipline is definitely a skill, and it's one of the most important skills a player can have.

I agree Stevo. While it's not an athletic skill per se, being able to recognize a pitch and realize it's not a strike or decide to swing AND square the ball up on the bat is definitely a skill and separates very good prospects from major leaguers, very good players from All-stars, etc. If it wasn't a skill Brandon Wood and Matt Clement would be All-Stars right now.

 

I will agree with RockCo that the walk is overrated in that if you have the ability to hit the ball hard somewhere then you should probably swing more often than look to take the walk. It's really up to the batter to know his own ability with this. Guys like Vlad and Manny have/had the ability to hammer the ball no matter where it's pitched so for them walks are overrated IMO. A guy like Gomez or Yunesky who swing at everything, but hit it with much less authority the walk is underrated. On a side note, I shudder to think how many bombs Frank Thomas might have hit if he swung more.

 

Um, oh yeah... opening day is only two days away!! Reason enough to be excited!!