Some Scouts Think Brewers Could Be "Awful"

[HOF4canrake]

According to Peter Gammons at MLB.com, three scouts who have watched the Brewers apparently said...

 

"Milwaukee may be awful. They got a lot of hype, and between their

defense, lower velocity from their relievers and all the injuries, they

could be in for a long year in which most of the talk is going to be

about Prince Fielder's impending free agency."

 

I do believe some of the hype has been tempered because of the injuries to Grienke, Hart, Lucroy, etc., but could this year's team really end up worse than last season's group?

 

To me, awful would mean less than the 77 wins they had last season. Assuming Marcum's shoulder is okay (even if Grienke doesn't come back 100%), Braun has a monster year as expected, Fielder has a big year as expected and Hart returns in a timely manner, could they really be worse? I find it hard to believe, barring a lot of bad luck or continuous injuries.

 

What are your thoughts? Are you concerned the 2011 Brewers could be "awful?"

[PrinceEatMeat]

I could see them not necessarily living up to their lofty expectations, but awful is a huge stretch. I don't know if it's possible to be awful with our offense and starting rotation. With our rotation, the bullpen won't have to be used as much, so they won't wear down like in previous years. Even if some of our players underachieve, I'm sure others will step up. I don't think there's any way we will end up being awful. I'm not sure we will be division champs or whatever else people say, but we will be good and have a chance.

[berniebrewer4life]

According to Peter Gammons at MLB.com, three scouts who have watched the Brewers apparently said...

 

"Milwaukee may be awful. They got a lot of hype, and between their

defense, lower velocity from their relievers and all the injuries, they

could be in for a long year in which most of the talk is going to be

about Prince Fielder's impending free agency."

 

I do believe some of the hype has been tempered because of the injuries to Grienke, Hart, Lucroy, etc., but could this year's team really end up worse than last season's group?

 

To me, awful would mean less than the 77 wins they had last season. Assuming Marcum's shoulder is okay (even if Grienke doesn't come back 100%), Braun has a monster year as expected, Fielder has a big year as expected and Hart returns in a timely manner, could they really be worse? I find it hard to believe, barring a lot of bad luck or continuous injuries.

 

What are your thoughts? Are you concerned the 2011 Brewers could be "awful?"

Barring a major injury bug, there is no way this team is worse than last year. I'd say there is a good chance they don't meet expectations, but to win less than 77 games with this squad would be a borderline War Crime.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lower velocity from the relievers? What a random comment.

[RockCoCougars]

Laughable. How convenient that they forgot about returning 7/8 of the 4th highest scoring offense in the league last season and the revamped starting staff. I didn't know that Axford and Braddock are low velocity guys- how many teams have more than two guys in the pen who can throw mid 90's? Parra and Saito throw 90+ as well.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I wanna know who these scouts are and who they work for. My guess is they work for some pretty crappy teams if this is how they evaluate talent.

[trwi7]

I could see it. Hart and Lucroy likely start on the DL, Greinke will start on the DL, Marcum is already having shoulder issues. The defense is awful. We have five hitters in the lineup followed by three liabilities and the pitcher.

 

I personally would be shocked to see 85 wins. I'm predicting 83 and wouldn't be shocked at all with like 79 or 80.

[DHonks]

On the whole, I would expect improved production at 1b, ss, LF, CF, and Catcher. I also an anticipating a much better rotation and bullpen (can the rotation and pen get any worse than their first 30-40 games last year?)

[dlk9s]

If the injury issues are resolved within the first month, there is no possible way the Brewers will be "awful." Obviously, injuries can derail even the best teams.

 

EDIT: Except the Packers.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I could see it. Hart and Lucroy likely start on the DL, Greinke will start on the DL, Marcum is already having shoulder issues. The defense is awful. We have five hitters in the lineup followed by three liabilities and the pitcher.

If Hart and Lucroy start on the DL they will probably be back on April 6th which is the first day they could come back. That's 4 games they will miss. Greinke will miss 2-3 starts. Marcum is going to pitch here Saturday and has been out with shoulder stiffness. Stiffness in the shoulder is common in ST. So I'm not confident this has anything to do with poor mechanics or if it's considered an injury. We will find out soon. I think the defense will actually be better, but that's not saying much. I'm not sure where you get 3 liabilities? Unless you think Lucroy can't hit, which he has shown he can do in the minors and only has a little over a half season experience in the Majors..

 

Here's how I look at it. There is no way the Brewers will be worse than last year unless you think Greinke, Marcum, Axford, Braddock, Saito, Lucroy are downgrades from the players they are replacing. The players they are replacing were pretty bad, and it's hard to get much worse then them. This Brewers team in my opinion wins 85+ games with a bad defense, not having all of their offensive players till April 6th, and not having Greinke for 2-3 starts.

 

Now whether or not they make the playoffs is a different story. I think they can, but it will be close.

[bullox]

I didn't know that Axford and Braddock are low velocity guys- how many teams have more than two guys in the pen who can throw mid 90's?

I don't think that was the point the scouts were trying to make. I think they were saying that some relievers velocity was lower than it was previously, and at least in Braddock's case, that is true so far this spring. Braddock said in a recent interview that his velocity doesn't get up to speed until very late in spring.

Most guys who are used to throwing mid 90s get rocked if they throw their usual stuff at a lower velocity. If that's the case then it would be an issue, but not to the point that this team becomes "awful" imo.

[homer]

Scouts are dumb.

[ilikewisco]

If Braddock not throwing 96 in the middle of March means this team can't win 80 games, i gotta wonder if who says it follows sports. 7 or 8 guys in the pen that can bring it, Stetter can't, but the rest throw hard. If Rickie and Corey improve this team could be really good. Last year was Braun and Fielder's bottom, I see Mcgehee as the same guy he was last year. To me I cannot understand how a scout could think we could be awful. 1-3 looks pretty good, i'm alright with 4 and 5. The D may be a concern but there is no way the defense could negate the rest. scouts are dumb

[Ennder]

I can see this team not living up to expectations but awful is obviously not very likely.

[craigharmann]

But, according to Andrew Jackson, I mean, Gammons, Boston has been underrated and will go above and beyond all expectations.

[owbc]

There are myriad reasons why the Brewers will not be awful. Their biggest flaw, defense, will probably keep them out of the playoffs, but I'm not sure how a team with three #1 starting pitchers and one of the best set of 3-4 hitters in MLB could be awful. Maybe they look bad for a week or two because of the injuries, but nobody is out for the season or even 1/6 of the season.

 

As mentioned in an earlier article, I think the underlying issue here is that people are looking for this year's Mariners and the Brewers fit the general picture. Of course none of the details add up. but nobody is held accountable for preseason predictions anyway.

 

To counter, I pick the Yankees as a team that is going to be "awful" this year. They will finish 10+ games behind the Red Sox.

[Teatoe993]

On paper I see no way we can be awful, yet I can't help but fear that we will turn out to be this year's Mariners.

[Oldcity]

The Brewers had a very good offense last year with somewhat underwhelming seasons from Fielder and Braun. They're going to have a very good offense this year.

 

Only way they're .500 is if the injury big hits them harder than "normal." The defense is bad, but it's no worse than last year, really. Betancourt sucks, but Cruz and Counsell are better defensively than Escobar was last year, so hopefully the difference at short is negligible after Betancourt loses the regular job within a month.

[JohnBriggs12]

I did see the game where Axford got shelled and he was topping out at 91, so I assume that's what scouts are referring to. But since then, his results have been fine so I just assume he had some mid spring issues.

 

Scouts are watching a team this spring being led by Almonte, Reed and Boggs in at bats. That won't be the case when the season opens.

 

Braun and Fielder both figure to improve on their 2010 numbers. Weeks appears poised for an even bigger year. He's only struck out 6 times in 39 spring AB's. If he can reduce his K's down to 140 or 150, he can add 20 points to his BA. Betancourt (and sorry, he won't be replaced a month into the season), should produce more offensively than Escobar did last year.

[Funketown]

Some "scouts" also thought the Kansas City Royals would make the world series in 2009, because apparently they were already the next Tampa Bay Rays. Without knowing who these scouts are, it's pretty tough to take this comment seriously.

[Invader3K]

I wanna know who these scouts are and who they work for. My guess is they work for some pretty crappy teams if this is how they evaluate talent.

I was thinking this as well. It seems like every year for the past few seasons there have been some random quotes from mystery scouts and executives panning the Brewers. I remember a quote from "a GM" before the '08 season who said the Brewers were "overrated."

It's probably people from teams like the Pirates, if I had to honestly guess.

 

[topper09er]

Some scouts also thought we should draft bj surhoff over barry bonds

[davemakovec]

"Lower velocity from relievers" is now a serious factor? This is a good example of why the SABR crowd has been gaining influence in baseball predictions - a lot of scouts are really dumb.

 

Defense will be mitigated by a staff that's going to rack up some serious Ks, and injuries are an issue with everybody. Most of the injuries in the Brewers camp so far are little things that will get resolved by the middle of April.

[joepepsi]

If the Brewers' jerseys said "Red Sox" across the front, yet had the same players, Gammons' story would be 3 scouts told him they were the best team in baseball.

 

I do worry about Greinke. How can he only miss 3 starts when he hasn't even thrown a pitch in a game since the injury? Methinks he's out for all of April and maybe into May.

[RockCoCougars]

Some scouts also thought we should draft bj surhoff over barry bonds

Hindsight is 20/20, my friend. If I remember correctly, Bonds wasn't even in the mix for the #1 pick back then. Obviously, if you redrafted now, Bonds would be the pick, but criticizing the Brewers for taking Surhoff would be like criticizing all NFL teams outside of the Patriots for passing on Tom Brady. It's like criticizing the Bucks for taking Bogut over Paul, or Robinson over Kidd. At the time those picks went down it was either Bogut or Williams and the Big Dog was a no-brainer (I remember Kohl got a death threat if he didn't take Robinson). It was going to be either Surhoff or Bobby Witt. Drafts are a crap shoot, some guys have peaked at the draft, some regress, and some bust out. Surhoff ended up having a good, not great career- better than most #1 overall picks I would guess. Twenty years ago, everyone was disparaging the Brewers for taking Surhoff over Will Clark.

 

On a related note, I know that there were some trade rumors involving Sheffield for Bonds after Sheff had worn out his welcome here- right before Bonds broke out... not sure how serious they were, but imagine if that had happened.