Reds Rotation

[tyguy20204]

Well, going into the season all the talk was about the depth of the Reds rotation. It seems as though they are having some issues arise, however.

-Volquez has been pitching exclusively to minor leaguers until today, when he faced the Brewers and self-destructed with control issues.

-Cueto has been experiencing forearm tightness, which is a possible precursor to Tommy John surgery. Hopefully not - I don't wish health issues on any player - but there may be something going on here.

-Homer Bailey has struggled this spring, although that doesn't necessarily predict future performance.

Obviously they have Mike Leake waiting in the wings, but his his effectiveness is still up in the air following last season's disappoint second half.

I do believe they also have a solid pitching prospect or two at Triple AAA, but still, these pitchers are unproven.

I guess I just see some major question marks with the Reds rotation. And not just because of this spring, but also in looking at some of their peripherals from last year.

Obviously Volquez's 5.03 BB/9 last year stands out. As does Arroyo's xFIP of 4.60, although he consistently outperforms that number.

I don't know, we'll see. I expect the Reds to be an offensive juggernaut. But their pitching? I'm skeptical.

Any thoughts?

[Ennder]

Typical case of putting too much stock in potential and not enough in reality. While the Reds have the potential of a really good staff, Arroyo is the only starter you can expect a full season out of at this point. The rest of them are decent upside question marks who haven't managed a full healthy season in the majors yet.

[Patrick425]

I'm thinking the Reds fans could say similar things about the Brewers rotation and the injuries that have occurred this spring. The Cards also have had some bad luck with their starting pitching this spring. The NL Central may just come down to who's pitching staff can stay the healthiest and who can possibly swing the big trade at the deadline (I'm not sure how much the Brewers will have to offer up in a trade.)

[docduany]

Looks like the Crew will miss Cueto to start the season: from ESPN.comhttp://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2011/news/story?id=6243750

 

Right-handed starter Johnny Cueto will miss the start of the season because of an inflamed pitching shoulder, forcing the Cincinnati Reds to juggle their rotation.

Cueto

had to leave his last two spring training starts because of soreness in

his right arm. He returned to Cincinnati over the weekend for an

examination by Dr. Timothy Kremchek and an MRI that found mild

inflammation in the shoulder but no significant injury.

 

[RobDeer 45]

Saw that yesterday. Man the Central is getting beat up.

[dlk9s]

And the Cubs are just beating up each other.

[JohnBriggs12]

Let's not forget the Reds have Travis Wood too. He was very good (5-4, 3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) in 17 starts after being called up last year. He's having an excellent spring and is a lock for that rotation.

[tyguy20204]

I didn't forget about Wood, I just failed to mention him because he seems to lack any real question marks. He's still somewhat unproven, but his numbers in the majors reflected his numbers in the minors so I don't necessarily see any signs of regression. He also pitched 200+ innings last year combined between leagues, so he's durable.

He should continue to be good, maybe their best starter.

[TheCrew07]

Typical case of putting too much stock in potential and not enough in reality. While the Reds have the potential of a really good staff, Arroyo is the only starter you can expect a full season out of at this point. The rest of them are decent upside question marks who haven't managed a full healthy season in the majors yet.

Yea it's crazy to expect young talented players to get better, it's tough living out here in la la land...

 

Volquez is coming off of surgery, he'll have his ups and downs, and maybe he never gets it back, but that's certainly not something to hang our hat on in the off season. Leake jumped directly to the majors, it's an entirely different grind, not to mention being a rookie, I'm curious to see how he progresses. Bailey is going to do what Bailey does, I'd take him over Narveson as a #5 because if he ever figures it out, watch out.... Cueto would be the biggest loss, if he also needs TJ surgery then I gotta believe Chapman will be in the rotation.

 

1 injury and the Brewers will have less experience in their rotation than Cincy, relying on experienced but talented pitchers to raise their game, something about stones and living in a glass house comes to mind here. Tell me, how many Brewer pitchers can we expect a full season out of? In the end production certainly trumps talent, but if talented players aren't ever given a chance to flourish, how will they become consistently productive? That's the catch 22 isn't it? How to finish the development of young players and yet win at the same time?

 

Cincy's stable of young pitching talent is immensely talented, yes they have warts, but they are talented. Our current stable of young rotation talent in that class consists of Gallardo, that's it. I know which side of the coin I'd rather be on.

 

Isn't this all a bit premature given spring training success/failure means absolutely nothing come opening day?

[Ennder]

Cincy's stable of young pitching talent is immensely talented, yes they have warts, but they are talented. Our current stable of young rotation talent in that class consists of Gallardo, that's it. I know which side of the coin I'd rather be on.

 

You forgot a Mr. Grienke I think.

 

Volquez is coming off of an injury and has never shown good control and his peripherals have not shown an elite pitcher. So far Cueto has shown to be about the same pitcher as Randy Wolf peripheral wise and hasn't been able to stay healthy. Nobody has any real idea what to expect from Bailey at this point.

 

Out of the whole bunch I like Travis Wood the best and think he'll likely be their best pitcher.

 

None of that really matters to my point though which is that people are saying the Reds have amazing depth but it is a collection of pitchers who have never been able to last a full season yet and that some of them haven't been able to put together enough control to have a good season yet. I never said the Reds don't have upside, I never said anyone has a better or worse rotation. The point was that people just look at the upside and ignore the realities. The Reds rotation could easily be a disaster this year, it could be really good too, the range of outcomes is very large because they have a rotation of largely unproven players, especially if Cueto stays down.

[cwolf2012]

"Our current stable of young rotation talent in that class consists of Gallardo, that's it."

 

Gallardo is better than any of the Reds' pitchers.

[docduany]

The Reds are having as much bad luck as the rest of the central's contenders. According to Reds.com Homer Bailey will start the season on the DL with a shoulder impingement. http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110325&content_id=17116294&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cin

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110325&content_id=17116294&vkey=news_cin&c_id=cinI guess we'll get Volquez, Arroyo, and then Wood or Leake. I don't like anyone to have injuries, but at least we've got company.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Wow. I'm now feeling a little better about missing Greinke for a couple starts.

[craigharmann]

According to Buster Olney, Cueto's shoulder is bothering him and Arroyo was tested for an ailment.

[Schlitz001]

It sounds like Travis Wood is getting the nod with Homer Bailey out. Bronson Arroyo is being tested for Valley Fever, which is a fungal infection in the lungs. I feel a little bit better about Greinke as well, but unlike the Brewers, the Reds actually have legitimate pitching depth.

[Mass Haas]

Rotoworld:

 

Bronson Arroyo has been diagnosed with mononucleosis.

It's better than Valley Fever, but obviously it's not the best-case diagnosis. Arroyo said he doesn't expect to miss any starts, meaning he'll likely take the ball on Tuesday and then in his first turn during the regular season. We'll just have to see how he recovers, though, as a player dealing with mono can often take several weeks or longer to return to 100 percent. Casey Kotchman missed most of the 2006 season with the illness.

 

I guess there are levels of this. Boston's Jed Lawrie was pretty much devastated by this two years ago.

[cwolf2012]

Did Arroyo attend a makeout party with the rest of his Middle School class? Yeesh.

[PrinceEatMeat]

My roommate had mono a couple years ago, and he could barely sit through a class. I;m surprised that Arroyo can pitch with it. It usually just causes terrible weakness and fever. Basically knocks you out for awhile, where all you can do is rest. He's lucky he didn't get it bad I guess.

[endaround]

Yeah I don't know how he'll be able to throw. Even mild cases usually include basically putting a person into bed for a week. Severe cases mean IV hookups and being unable to do anything for months.

[Teatoe993]

Maybe he's just really bored.

[PKBadger]

Maybe he's just really bored.

Damn it. I came here to make that joke. Well played, sir.

[RyDogg66]

I know that in the grand scheme of things this is meaningless, but in my fantasy baseball draft that is currently going on, we are int he 20th round and the top pitchers available are Cueto, Volquez, Arroyo, James Shields and Travis Wood. Meanwhile, Gallardo Greinke and Marcum ahve been off the board for a long time, and we are not homers, we are all very competative. I know "fantasy" is just that and it isnt reality, but it says something about the Reds pitchers ceilings, IMO.

[Ennder]

It says that people in your league are underrating Volquez, Wood and Shields or it is a very shallow league.

 

But yeah the Reds don't have a sure thing must have starter because of bad control, injuries or just being boring for fantasy(Arroyo).

[RyDogg66]

Its a 12 team mixed league. The preseason "ranks" of those pitchers are 169 Cueto, 217 Volquez, 219 Arroyo, 22 Shields, and 227 Wood.

 

Greinke 67, Gallardo 87 and Marcum 111.

 

So, no, we arent undervaluing them. Pitchers are undervalued in Fantasy Baseball regardless, but that applies to both Brewer pitchers and Reds pitchers equally.

 

Like I said, it means very little, but it does mean something.

[Oxy]

My roommate had mono a couple years ago, and he could barely sit through a class. I;m surprised that Arroyo can pitch with it. It usually just causes terrible weakness and fever. Basically knocks you out for awhile, where all you can do is rest. He's lucky he didn't get it bad I guess.

Having "mono" means that you tested positive for the virus and have some symptoms. As with many medical conditions, the severity of those symptoms runs quite a spectrum; in the case of mono it can cause nothing at all to being wiped out for weeks on end and having an engorged spleen. Most adults who weren't germophobes and had a social life as a youth have been exposed to the virus (Epstein-Barr virus) at some point but many never even knew it because they lacked symptoms or just attributed it to feeling "run down" for awhile and forgot about it. Basically, no two cases are alike.