Gallardo and limiting his innings

[homer]

I love how people accept the fact that young pitchers MUST limit their innings. One joker even said it's backed up by stats and common sense. Whatever. Where are the stats?

Yeah, this guy named Bill James found that there was a correlation between a major jump in a young pitcher's innings from one year to the next and injury.

[Ron Mexico]

You're wrong. Where are the stats on this? There aren't any that I know of. Unless you have the little league and HS stats for every guy, then you simply cannot know the full story. The fact that ML teams subscribe to the theory doesn't make it true. It simply means that they have a lot of money invested in these players and want to "play it safe". They also want to keep their jobs - so they don't want to make it appear that they were at fault. But it's not based in FACT, at all. How do you explain the guys that did have their innings limited but still got hurt? You're just another guy who can explain everything but in fact knows nothing.

 

The more innings you heap on Gallardo this season, the more likely it is that he gets hurt.

 

He knows that. He's just distorting our argument to make it easier to argue against. The fact that Doug Melvin and just about every other ML organization supports the theory of limiting the innings of young arms makes his position pretty hard to defend, however.

[sheethead]

Shouldn't you be out spreading herpes and killing dogs?

[goirish2107]

i don't know if anyone has mentioned, but you can add 12 innings to yo's 2006 total due to the Souther League playoffs

[homer]

"But it's not based in FACT, at all. How do you explain the guys that did have their innings limited but still got hurt? You're just another guy who can explain everything but in fact knows nothing."

 

Wow that's kind of a rough response to a fairly innocent post. You asked for proof I mentioned Bill James's study - don't shoot the messenger, dude. If you want I can go get it but I thought I'd let you do the research yourself.

[clancyphile]

i don't know if anyone has mentioned, but you can add 12 innings to yo's 2006 total due to the Souther League playoffs

That would give the Crew two more six-inning starts - say in a playoff game?

[sbrylski]

I thought about this too last night, but didn't say anything because I began to think of all the leads our middle relievers have recently blown - and they haven't been small ones. I think a big part of the decision to leave him in was because of lack of confidence in the bullpen.

 

And its not like Gallardo threw 120. He threw about what he would have expected to throw regardless of offensive output, I believe he ended up at 91 or 92...

[sbrylski]

How do you explain the guys that did have their innings limited but still got hurt?

 

Its playing the probabilities. There is no magic number a guy will get injured at, nobody is disputing that. But the study mentioned shows that there is a big jump in the likelyhood of an injury once a pitcher goes over ~20 innings more than they did the season prior.

[dadofandrew]

I think if they skip him when they have an off day and delay his starts until 5days thereafter, he'll only start twice the rest of the way, perhaps 3. That will probably end up being the compromise.

[Bucky Rules]

I think if they skip him when they have an off day and delay his starts until 5days thereafter, he'll only start twice the rest of the way, perhaps 3. That will probably end up being the compromise.

I don't think that they can afford to do that. I think they're going to end up taking their chances. I'm not positive of this, but I think his pitch counts have been relatively low in his starts. He can't have many that have hit 100. That's probably how they're going to go about limiting him.

[brettac1]

He has thrown 1369 pitches in 16 games (13 starts), which is an average of about 86 per game. He has gone 100 or more five times, topping out at 109.

 

EDIT: After doing some work myself, he has thrown 1230 pitches in his 13 starts, averaging about 95 per game.

 

For comparison's sake, Sheets averages 99 pitches per game. Suppan averages 98, Bush 92 per game (94 per start), and Vargas 88 per game (94 per start).

[rluzinski]

How do you explain the guys that did have their innings limited but still got hurt?

 

Common sense?

[dadofandrew]

Next Tues, then a week from Tues 9/18, 9/23, and 9/28; so no, to answer my own question, he'd still get 4 starts even by only using him as the 5th SP.

[JJHardy7]

I guess I don't see why people argue against the inning limitation. The reasoning is usually you have no proof, they pitched more in the old days, etc. This isn't that time or a time to argue that. The Brewers ARE competitive and they can't afford big injuries to high draft picks or high prospects. The core of the team has been set up through the draft. If you don't like the innings limitations that's fine, but if you care about the future of the organization you'd please take this into consideration.

 

Look at this way...we have Yo, CV, and Parra as 3 guys who will be 25 or younger throughout next year and they could each land in a starters role next yeard. Why not watch out for them? If Yo pitching more innings decides our playoff future in your opinion I guess I disagree. I just look at Braun and Yo as in season additions. We did NOT have Yo to begin the year. Everything he gives us is bonus.

 

 

As far as no research, just look at the Crews past with top prospect pitchers and injuries. If they're too cautious, can you blame them? If Yo goes over his innings and blows out his arm you know darn well what will be said here.

[brettac1]

If I get in my car and proceed to go 120 MPH, I could very well crash my car. I also might not. However, the chances that I will are way higher than if I were to simply go on the highway and set my cruise at 70 MPH.

[logan82]

Look at the Marlin's and Tiger's pitching staffs this year and last year.

[Hammer715]

I am surprised that no one has brought up several of the old time players dispute the pitch count theory. I know I heard Don Sutton and Kenny Sanders at different times talk about the pitches today get to much rest and are pampered to much. I remember a couple of comments from the interviews; the arm only gets stronger by working it and pitching. Sutton brought up the fact that there are a lot more surgerys now with the added days of rest compared to 10-15 years ago when they pitched every 3-4 days. Sanders talked about having a 3 inning save which is just about unheard now, except in the case of blowouts. This topic makes for a nice debate and I think it comes down to protecting the investments, because we know whatever the team does and it goes wrong they screwed up and are idiots. The example is that if they limit Yo inings and he gets hurt in spring the club should have pitched him more to strengthen his are, and then if the remove the innings cap and let him pitch in fall 4-5 more starts and then gets hurt the club screwed up and should have limited his innings. So I guess the moral is use em while you got em, because you dont know what tomorrow will bring.

[logan82]

I would have to guess that there are more surgeries now because it has been refined and is more successful. In the old days I would have to guess that if you got hurt badly enough you were done where now something that would have been considered a year long recovery or career threatening can be fixed with surgery and be a month long injury or year rehab respectivley.

[endaround]

They haven't been pitching on three days rest since the Nixon Administration. And I'm sure when Sutton was coming up old pitchers complained about those soft pitchers these days with their greenies and steroids allowing and how it babied them.

[paul253]

I guess I don't see why people argue against the inning limitation

 

I think people are arguing against inning limitation because we are in September and tied for first place. This team hasn't made the playoffs in 25 years and hasn't even had a winning season in 15 years. I personally am not suggesting that the chances of him getting hurt aren't increased if he pitches more. I am saying that right now, I am willing to take that risk. I don't know, some of the statements I read seem that people are so sure that if he pitches over a certain number of innings, we may as well forget him next year because he is for sure going to blow out his shoulder, and thats simply not the case. We are tied for first place, I don't think we should base this season on what might happen next season or the season after that. Minus like 2 or 3 starts, he's probably been our second best starter behind Sheets, and I think taking him out of the rotation to lessen his chances of getting hurt is just plain stupid.

 

If I get in my car and proceed to go 120 MPH, I could very well crash my car. I also might not. However, the chances that I will are way higher than if I were to simply go on the highway and set my cruise at 70 MPH.

 

This is comparing apples to oranges. First of all, whether or not you get in a crash depends on a huge number of factors, not the least of which is how good of a driver you are. If you could actually control whether you get hurt based on how "good" of a pitcher you are, this argument would make more sense. You could make hundreds of comparisons like this to try to prove a point, but none of them have any relevance. Are the chances of him getting hurt higher if he pitches more...probably. Is there any way calculating the exact odds of this particular pitcher getting hurt because he pitches more innings...no way. This is all based on what past pitchers have experienced, which has nothing to do specifically with Gallardo.

[IslandsAC]

If I get in my car and proceed to go 120 MPH, I could very well crash my car. I also might not. However, the chances that I will are way higher than if I were to simply go on the highway and set my cruise at 70 MPH.

 

Not a bad analogy, but I guess the issue being debated is more of: how quickly do you need to get where you're going? If your wife is deep in labor beside you, you might consider pushing 100 MPH or more so you can control the scenario a little. Do the Brewers think the risks associated with pushing Yo's limit are worth their increased chances of making the playoffs? A tough spot - yet another decision I'm glad I don't have to make.

 

Also the argument about the old timers just doesn't hold up for me. Everything about the game is different than it was then. Pitchers are throwing much harder, and much harder earlier in their lives.

[1992casey]

One joker even said it's backed up by stats and common sense. Whatever.

Calling another member a 'joker' is clearly a violation of forum condescension guidelines. Please re-read the rules, especially the stuff about what kind of discussion isn't allowed.

 

[logan82]

I have heard older players say that they only had to really bear down against a couple of hitters per game so they didn't have to expend as much energy. With smaller ballparks and "live" balls, pitchers have to expend more effort per pitch than older players did in their time. At least that is how I understand it.

[Brian the Automator]

Wha??!!!! I didn't offend anyone on this site verbally did I? Please let me know if I have! Brian did I do something wrong? Yovanni should go 8 IP if the situation calls for it. I totally expect him to go no less should the Brewers make postseason. This whole I know more about baseball than you do stuff has to stop. :-( It's not about opinions on this board for the most part any longer. And if I were to DISAGREE that Gallardo should have his IP watched then sue me. GO BREWERS!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yovanni next time out I hope you pitch a 9 inning shutout!!!

This is your first post in the thread. What is this in response to?

 

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the innings limit on Gallardo got thrown out the window when it became clear that Yost's job is on the line this month. Unless the Brewers clinch or are eliminated before the 9/27 game, Gallardo will make 5 more starts, which will push his total innings for the year to between 180 and 185. That will be around 30 more than he threw last year. Is 5 innings beyond the "25 inning rule" worth it to get a franchise's first taste of postseason in a generation?

 

You bet it is.