Gallardo and limiting his innings

[DHonks]

Do we know if Yo threw in Instrucs last year? If so, then he possibly might have around 20 more innings in his tank this year

[tigerbrew]

Melvin has already made clear that he's strictly limiting Yo's innings this year, so why are some pretending that it isn't going to happen?

The Brewers had a 5.5 games lead in the division when Melvin made that comment.

[logan82]

They will have a real hard time making the playoffs without Yo. How will shutting him down for 3 weeks affect him when he comes back? Parra's been sitting so much does anyone think he will be effective when used now? He certainly is no longer stretched out.

 

I think the process of using a guy, then sitting him down, then using him again does more strain on the arm then just letting him pitch, monitoring how he's throwing and only sitting him down if he's showing signs of fatigue.

 

Just for fun, I looked up the innings racked up by some all time great pitchers at young ages:

 

Tom Seaver at age 22 threw 251 innings

 

Catfish Hunter at age 21 threw 259 innings

 

Don Sutton at age 21 threw 225 innings

 

Vida Blue at age 21/22 threw 312 innings (that's right, 312)

 

Bert Blyleven at age 20 threw 278 innings

 

All of those guys went on to have very long major league careers without serious arm troubles. Keep in mind that all those innings were at the major league level.

The notion that limiting a guy to a specific amount of innings will prevent injury or that exceeding that amount will lead to injury is faulty thinking. Every guy is different as those listed above illustrate.

 

You are sidestepping the whole reasoning behind the inning limit. The issue is the increase in innings per year, not just the number of innings. There might be 4 pitchers who blew out their arms for every one of those guys you listed. In that case you are talking about a 80% injury rate. I don't know because I don't have the time or will to look up every pitcher through all the years of baseball. Even if we were talking about a 33% injury rate that would be to high. Lets say we decided to have Villy, Parra and Gallardo all pitch a full year. At a 33% injury rate we would lose one of them to a major arm injury. We don't have the resources to replace one of those guys. I know there isn't much to back up my arguement here except Doug Melvin's unpublished research that he refers to, but I would rather be safe than sorry.

[lukevan]

Not sure if this has been posted anywhere, but I found this quote from Mike Maddux very interesting (also included relevant text - found at milwaukeebrewers.com):

 

The team could face a difficult decision with Gallardo as it creeps later into the season and toward a potential playoff series. He is only 21 years old and has already pitched 145 innings between the Minors and Majors this season -- 10 innings shy of his total from all of last year. Ideally, the Brewers cap young pitchers at 20-25 innings above their total from the previous season, though Gallardo is on pace to exceed that unofficial limit.

 

"You draw up ideal programs," Maddux said. "But your true ideal program is to win games and play in the postseason. I think that might supersede the programs. If you can blend those two things, you definitely do it."

 

 

Maddux seems to think the Brewers may be willing to throw Gallardo out there past his innings limit. I think it would be a mistake if they went much over that limit.

[Tbadder]

If they screw up Y's arm, I believe it will deflate the whole organization. A kind of "here we go again," "back to the bad old days," kind of reaction. Worse, that could cause a chain reaction of overspending in the free agent market, or an unnatural pushing up of other pitching prospects. Chances are the Crew are going no where this year anyways--even if the make the playoffs. I'd rather be armed and loaded for the next two/three seasons than take unnecessary risks now.

[rluzinski]

not that i agree with devil's advocatism, but Melvin has always been 100% honest with the media

 

Sure, he'll lie when there is a benefit in doing so but this isn't such a case.

 

The Brewers had a 5.5 games lead in the division when Melvin made that comment.

 

Did you hear him talk about it? He was pretty clear about understanding the risks associated with not limiting a young pitcher's innings. He would have to do a significant amount of backtracking at this point. And man, if Yo did get hurt (for any reason), Melvin would never hear the end of it. I don't think he can take it back.

 

Maddux seems to think the Brewers may be willing to throw Gallardo out there past his innings limit. I think it would be a mistake if they went much over that limit.

 

Yo has maybe 35 IP and 5 starts before he's capped. Maybe they give him an extra start or two but it would be very hard for me to imagine Yo pitching game to in the first round of the playoffs.

[thunderbat30]

I know Gallardo pitched well in Arizona but his last few outings he sure looks to be a pitcher with a "tired arm." His location has not been good.

[paul253]

If they screw up Y's arm, I believe it will deflate the whole organization.

 

I just think its funny that as soon as someone passes over a certain number of innings, all of a sudden half of this website thinks his arm is going to fall off. If he stops pitching right now, there's no guarantee he wont get hurt next year. And if he pitches 100 more innings this year, there's no guarantee he will get hurt. Lets just use him as needed, and deal with what happens. Isn't that what we've been doing with Ben Sheets for the past 3 seasons? Our rotation flat out sucks right now, and I am sick of the whole, "just wait until next year" argument, because next year Braun and Fielder might get hurt, and then we're waiting until 2009.

 

That being said, if they do take him out of the rotation, i hope the five man rotation is Sheets, Villanueva, Bush, Suppan, and Parra. Vargas's jekell and hyde routine is getting kind of old.

[Ennder]

Ten years ago kids in little league/high school would throw 120+ pitches on a regular basis, many of them would blow out their arms at a young age, plenty of them were just fine. Should we just have ignored it because some are fine or do you think its a good thing more and more leagues are limiting their pitches now?

 

Ignoring something that statistics back up and is common sense just because there is no guarantee he'll get hurt is not a smart move. I don't want Gallardo getting injured just because some fans are too impatient to build the team the right way. The playoffs would be great this year but I don't think this team has any chance to go deep in them and the goal is to field a good team year in and year out.

[lukevan]

The more innings you heap on Gallardo this season, the more likely it is that he gets hurt. If Gallardo gets fatigued and is still pitching late this season over his limit, he is more likely to get hurt down the road. It might be just one start too many that causes a brief change in mechanics in order to pitch while fatigued which could lead to an injury that costs us a year or two (or more) of Gallardo. The limit isn't an arbitrary number: it's representative of a modest increase from last season in order to protect a young pitcher. We've known about this limit all season.

 

We all want Gallardo to throw as much as possible this season, but don't pretend that having Yo throw significantly over his limit will be entirely inconsequential. I'm not saying his arm will fall off as he opens up his 176th inning of the year, but the odds for injury increase if he goes too long.

[rluzinski]

The more innings you heap on Gallardo this season, the more likely it is that he gets hurt.

 

He knows that. He's just distorting our argument to make it easier to argue against. The fact that Doug Melvin and just about every other ML organization supports the theory of limiting the innings of young arms makes his position pretty hard to defend, however.

[paul253]

He knows that. He's just distorting our argument to make it easier to argue against. The fact that Doug Melvin and just about every other ML organization supports the theory of limiting the innings of young arms makes his position pretty hard to defend, however.

Thank you for explaining to me what i was saying, its always nice when people are willing to tell me what i'm actually saying...

 

When I make arguments, I like to exaggerate on examples to make things clearer sometimes, so thats what I'll do now. Obviously if a guy pitches 1000 innings he's more likely to throw out his arm out and/or get hurt than if he pitches one innings. Nowhere have I ever disagreed with that. My whole argument, which is not distorting anything, is saying this.....i think its worth taking the chance this season. yes he may get hurt, but he may not. We are in the middle of a pennant race and our rotation is blowing it. Why not put the best arms out there. Are 20 or 30 extra innings really going to mean Tommy John surgery next season as everyone here seems to think?....probably not. But for all of those saying i am completely ignoring what every MLB executive is doing, thats absurb. The mlb executives are playing the percentages, and thats fine. But at some point, you need to stop playing the percentages and just do whats best right now.

 

Ten years ago kids in little league/high school would throw 120+ pitches on a regular basis, many of them would blow out their arms at a young age, plenty of them were just fine. Should we just have ignored it because some are fine or do you think its a good thing more and more leagues are limiting their pitches now?

 

Comparing this to high school pitchers is unfair. First of all, there is a huge difference between a 21 year old and a 17 or 18 year old. 3 years of development is a lot. Also too, high school pitchers who pitch all those innings do it in far less of a time frame (the high school season is three months as compared to 6 months in mlb), and very rarely do high school kids get 4 days off in between starts.

[lukevan]

I just think Gallardo is too valuable to the Brewers in upcoming seasons to risk injury. He hasn't even really pitched well 3 of his last 4 starts which makes me lean even further toward holding him to his limit.

[TooLiveBrew]

But at some point, you need to stop playing the percentages and just do whats best right now.

Ok, but ask the Twins how well that worked out with Liriano. Sometimes, instant gratification can backfire, big-time. That's what the other side of the argument is saying here. Sure, YoGa can physically still throw 40 or more innings, but the question is whether or not you want to gamble with losing the next year or two just to throw those innings, right now. Gallardo's importance to the organization and its future simply cannot be understated, especially with Sheets's impending free agency.

Another important factor to note is how tired he has indeed looked recently. His lack of location last night simply looked like a guy that was pitching in the 7th or 8th inning, except Yovani was still in the 1st. Similar signs of fatigue were visible with Carlos Villanueva. I think this argument comes down to common sense, and I mean no malice in saying that. If Gallardo (or whoever you'd want to extend) weren't looking like he's tiring, then I'd be much more inclined to say, sure, pitch him more - especially since we could obviously use such stability. The problem, imo, is that he is tiring out, and there's no coincidence that it's coming right around the 21-year-old's innings cap. These front office guys for the Brewers know what they're talking about.

[TerraceReserved]

But at some point, you need to stop playing the percentages and just do whats best right now.

 

It may be best right now, but its definitely not the best for the future. I don't think 20-25 innings over the limit for Yo is worth risking his arm. Not to mention Yo's arm seems extremely tired and he's pitched like crap the for quite a while.

[paul253]

again, I never said it wasn't risky, but considering we havent had a winner in 15 years or been to the playoffs in 25, at this point, I'm willing to risk it. We're a game and a half back right now. Maybe if we get swept in Chicago and are 4 1/2 back I'll change my opinion. But i am tired of waiting for next year.

 

On a side not, what about rotating Parra and Gallardo in the rotation? One time when the spot comes up, Parra starts, the next time it comes up, Gallardo starts. When they are in the bullpen, they'll only pitch when needed in long relief and Capuano/Villanueva isnt available. It would seem to limit both their innings, but it would also give us a decent arm in the rotation.

[Roscoe Chill]

They'll shut him down, and he'll get hurt next year anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

An honest question here (someone mentioned it in the Yost Yea or Nay thread):

 

Would pulling YoGa tonight have made sense for the near future? Would limiting his IP/pitch count have helped extend him for the potential of another start or appearance? Nevermind the fact the his face almost got crushed when that reliever lost the handle on his fastball. Was there anything to gain by pulling him after the 5th? I know the two innings from tonight alone are not enough to really count for another start, but might it have been a good gamble to yank the youngin' earlier tonight? I was surprised to see him come back out after the 5th, and can't really think of a reason that playing it safe tonight could have hurt. That said, his performance tonight was fantastic (including turning in 3 great ABs), and he clearly had the gas to go the 7 innings - no concern on that front.

[logan82]

I was thinking the same thing. I am not sure how much difference a couple innings might make though. Maybe worth a relief appearance later on? All those arms in the BP are there for a reason. Treating him like a normal starter might be worth something also.

[Baldkin]

2 innings this game, 3 innings another blow out (if one happens), and that's another start for Yo... instead of Cappy or Vargas or whomever else. That's why it frustrated me so much.

[BrewCityUnit]

I think it is pretty apparent that they are not going to limit Yo's innings after last night. If they were, he would have been taking out after the 5th inning without a doubt.

[Roscoe Chill]

I agree BrewCityUnit. Do people really still think that when the Brewers are within a half game of a playoff spot in the last month of the season, that in a week or so, the Brewers are just going to shut down their second best pitcher right now? I don't think that'd go over too well, whether it's the right thing to do or not. I really don't see it happening now.

[homer]

Russ pointed out in the IGT that Gallardo could have five more starts (including last night) and still be at his pitch limit.

 

And I'm sure there isn't some magic number that they just use - probably a range.

 

 

I want to say that Melvin said 180-185 IP (could be wrong though). If my poor memory serves me well and Yost limits Yo's remaining starts to 6 IP, that might be 5 more starts:

 

Wed. 5 Houston Gallardo(1)

Fri. 7 at Cincinnati Bush

Sat. 8 at Cincinnati Suppan

Sun. 9 at Cincinnati Sheets

Mon. 10 at Pittsburgh Villanueva

Tue. 11 at Pittsburgh Gallardo(2)

Wed. 12 at Pittsburgh Bush

Fri. 14 Cincinnati Suppan

Sat. 15 Cincinnati Sheets

Sun. 16 Cincinnati Villy/Vargas/Cappy

Mon. 17 at Houston Gallardo(3)

Tue. 18 at Houston Bush

Wed. 19 at Houston Suppan

Thu. 20 at Atlanta Sheets

Fri. 21 at Atlanta Villy/Vargas/Cappy

Sat. 22 at Atlanta Gallardo(4)

Sun. 23 at Atlanta Bush

Mon. 24 St. Louis Suppan

Tue. 25 St. Louis Sheets

Wed. 26 St. Louis Villy/Vargas/Cappy

Thu. 27 San Diego Gallardo(5)

Fri. 28 San Diego Bush

Sat. 29 San Diego Suppan

Sun. 30 San Diego Sheets

[Ron Mexico]

I love how people accept the fact that young pitchers MUST limit their innings. One joker even said it's backed up by stats and common sense. Whatever. Where are the stats? Do you have stats from the pitchers' little league teams and high school teams? These injuries can happen anywhere, at any time. A kid can hurt his arm at age 12 and have it heal completely - but never really know it. Then it gets reinjured in his 20s when his arm is subjected to the stress of pitching. We have to face the fact that we don't know everything - and the why's and how's of arm injuries are one of those things. Otherwise, we'd have far fewer arm injuries than we do now.

 

Pitching someone when their arm is tired is stupid. Limiting someone's innings based on an arbitrary number is also stupid.

[clancyphile]

I think it is pretty apparent that they are not going to limit Yo's innings after last night. If they were, he would have been taking out after the 5th inning without a doubt.

Only a half-game out, they have to go for it. Making it to the playoffs would be a good foundation to build on for 2008.