Gallardo and limiting his innings

[hauser42]

My thought was to rotate all three young 'uns. I don't know how you'd pull that off logistically, but maybe have Parra take a start or two, Villanueva a start or two, and then Gallardo can have the rest.

 

This would be a nightmare the pen. Yost would have to hold back guys because he was going to start them in a couple of days and have two less arms in the pen if you count the guy that started and was moving to the pen.

[1992casey]

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Games like yesterday, where he goes 6 relatively stress free innings with 89 pitches are one way to limit stress on his arm without focusing entirely on innings totals.

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Exactly. I alluded to that in the Wise thread. The example I used was that if he was pitching so brilliantly that he he could pull off of 90 pitch complete game, there shouldn't be an issue.

 

Not all pitch counts and innings are created equal. A couple years ago, for instance, batman pointed out that pitching from the stretch is tougher on the arm than pitching from a windup.

 

I remember Ned commenting on that when he was first hired. At the time, he noted that that information was relatively 'new' to him. But at any rate, I'm glad that's something he keeps in mind.

 

As far as rotating the young'uns, you'd probably be working with a TBA situation. It wouldn't be ideal, but it'd probably be workable on occasion.

[Brian the Automator]

From BP's Under the Knife:

 

The Brewers aren't thrilled that Yovani Gallardo is starting in place of Ben Sheets. They were hoping that using him in relief would limit his innings. They don't have a choice now, and as good as Gallardo has been, it's proof of just how much the Brewers value their young pitcher that they don't just run him out there. ...

 

LINK

 

Nice to see the Brewers getting some props on their handling of Yo so far.

[lukevan]

Yovani is now at 130.2 IP for the season between Nashville and the big club, giving him about 40-45 possibly 50 IP for the rest of the season. That leaves him with about 8 starts before we would want to shut him down. If Ben does come back in early September, we should be able to move him back into the bullpen with about 15-20 innings for the rest of the season. If Sheets is out longer, we could see Parra take a few starts in September for Gallardo to save him for later (most likely), or else we could see Yovani unavailable for potential postseason play.

[BillScottCanRake]

Just a side note, Parra is on a 150 inning limit this year, too.

 

So between Parra (who is at 120ish) and Gallardo, the Brewers have about 75 innings to play with.

[BrewCityUnit]

Are we 100% positive Gallardo is going to get shut down or his innings are going to limited? I know this has been discussed over and over again, but is there a chance that the current situation might dictate Gallardo pitching an extra 30 innings this year. I understand the big picture, I am just suggesting the thoughts that management might change their plans.

[chuckiehacks]

Are we 100% positive Gallardo is going to get shut down or his innings are going to limited?

 

I think there are really two issues here. The first is the one that's been raised over and over, that we don't want Yo to turn into Anibal Sanchez next year and get hurt from being overworked. The second issue is that the team probably wants to keep Yo fresh for the stretch run and, more importantly, playoffs. I'd hate to see him hit the "rookie wall" (see Villanueva, Carlos) in the last week of September.

[endaround]

Ask the Cubs if getting to the NLC was worth destroying Prior's arm for

[BrewCityUnit]

Endaround, I am stating that I want Gallardo to finish the season in the roation and not worry about his innings. I am just proposing the question that do we know for sure the Brewers are going to stick to their original plan? Also, we have no idea that if we extend Gallardo to 30+ innings this year, he will get injured in future seasons. Comparing him to Prior is just one example. I know there are many others but I'm also sure there are plenty of young guys who didn't have their innings limited that never did get hurt in furture seasons.

[whizkid]

I am just proposing the question that do we know for sure the Brewers are going to stick to their original plan?

 

Of course we don't know for sure. They've said it but no one made them swear on a stack of bibles or cross their hearts. I would suspect they will stay with it though.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

The way he is pitching, the brewers are going to have a hard time dropping Gallardo from the rotation to limit his innings. They will continue to keep his pitch count per start below 100 which I think is more important than total innings.

 

Just a side note: Villanueva threw 50 more innings in 2006 than he did in 2005 and his arm didn't fall off.

[Ennder]

Also, we have no idea that if we extend Gallardo to 30+ innings this year, he will get injured in future seasons.

 

Of course there is no way to know for sure, not all pitchers are created the same and not all innings are the same. Studies have been done that show a very strong correlation between large jumps in IP and injuries so they are just trying to play it safe.

[lukevan]

I would think if the Brewers are in the playoffs and Yo has pitched 175-180 innings already, they would certainly consider giving him another start. However if Cappy/Suppan/Bush (or two of three) are pitching well toward the end of the season I wouldn't be suprised at all if they relegate Yo to the pen for the postseason.

[BillScottCanRake]

I think these innings (pitch) limits are much more firm than some people seem to think, regardless of what we may think of them. This didn't start with Gallardo and Parra this year and it won't end with them, either.

 

Even tho the Brewers are doing everything in their power to win now, Melvin and Yost both know it won't do any good to make the playoffs next year and have Yo spend the season on the DL. As much as I have enjoyed this year, I can't wait until 2008 when we get to see Gallardo start and finish the season in Milwaukee.

 

As for wanting an example other than Prior (or wood), we need only look back to last year when Verlander said he was gassed in the playoffs because he had never pitched so much before. That's dangerous, because when a player becomes fatigued they have a tendency to get out of whack with regards to their mechanics. That leads to the double-whammy of poor performance and increased injury risk. Neither of those things are any good in October.

 

So, the Brewers do have a limit in mind, and they will stick to it. They want to do everything in their power to limit the probability that future injuries will occur as the result of overwork. Yes, the Brewers can do everything right and pitchers can still get hurt, and yes, they could overwork them and pitchers can remain healthy. Even tho not every golfer who plays during a thunderstorm gets struck by lightning that doesn't mean its a smart thing to do.

[lukevan]

Aug 20th: 144 IP

 

Around 25-30 IP left to play with...

 

One more start for Gallardo with Sheets coming back? Gallardo has about 4-5 starts left in him.

 

If Gallardo starts one more, Sheets replaces Yo and Villy assumes the empty rotation slot left by Cappy (both by Sept 1), Yo will have 2-3 more starts left for the stretch run, whether that be in the last couple weeks of the regular season or in the playoffs. I assume he'll use a few innings out of the bullpen during that stretch.

[davego]

Just typing outloud, but I wonder if Yo will be used in the rotation in Sept, and if there are playoffs he is used out of the pen. I suppose the downside of the pen is getting up to warm-up. Those pitches count too I guess. It's hard to see the 'Crew making the playoffs w/o Yo starting in Sept. However, it is also hard to see the 'Crew win a playoff series w/o Yo starting in it.

[lukevan]

Just typing outloud, but I wonder if Yo will be used in the rotation in Sept, and if there are playoffs he is used out of the pen. I suppose the downside of the pen is getting up to warm-up. Those pitches count too I guess. It's hard to see the 'Crew making the playoffs w/o Yo starting in Sept. However, it is also hard to see the 'Crew win a playoff series w/o Yo starting in it.

 

Yeah, that was my same thought. I'm guessing we use Villy as a starter during at least early September to try to make it through without wasting Gallardo for late season/postseason starts.

[JohnBriggs12]

They will have a real hard time making the playoffs without Yo. How will shutting him down for 3 weeks affect him when he comes back? Parra's been sitting so much does anyone think he will be effective when used now? He certainly is no longer stretched out.

 

I think the process of using a guy, then sitting him down, then using him again does more strain on the arm then just letting him pitch, monitoring how he's throwing and only sitting him down if he's showing signs of fatigue.

 

Just for fun, I looked up the innings racked up by some all time great pitchers at young ages:

 

Tom Seaver at age 22 threw 251 innings

 

Catfish Hunter at age 21 threw 259 innings

 

Don Sutton at age 21 threw 225 innings

 

Vida Blue at age 21/22 threw 312 innings (that's right, 312)

 

Bert Blyleven at age 20 threw 278 innings

 

All of those guys went on to have very long major league careers without serious arm troubles. Keep in mind that all those innings were at the major league level.

The notion that limiting a guy to a specific amount of innings will prevent injury or that exceeding that amount will lead to injury is faulty thinking. Every guy is different as those listed above illustrate.

[davego]

John makes a good point. Regular work has to be a factor as well.

[lukevan]

Well, it's not as if they shut him down and he just stops throwing. He gets bullpen sessions. I would think throwing fewer innings in games could only make him fresher for the stretch. At 144 IP, he's just about at the point where he ended the season last year.

 

I can see your point though about how it may affect his effectiveness, so to speak.

 

As far as making the playoffs without him, I think if Villy can be effective a starter as he was last season, we won't lose too much.

 

Sept rotation:

 

Sheets

Villanueva

Bush

Vargas

Suppan

 

LR Capuano

LR Gallardo

MR Shouse

MR Wise

SU Turnbow

CL Cordero

SU Linebrink

[davego]

Just thinking ahead and given proper health...Yo, Villy Sheets is a nice start to the 08 rotation. Add some Soup and it could be quite tasty!

[whizkid]

Just for fun too:

Mark Fidrich, age 21, 250 innings

Yes, all pitchers are different. Would be nice to know in advance which ones will have problems wouldn't it? Since we can't, I'm with the cautious, plan for the long term side, not the riverboat gambler side.

 

 

[Thurston Fluff]

Endaround, I am stating that I want Gallardo to finish the season in the roation and not worry about his innings. I am just proposing the question that do we know for sure the Brewers are going to stick to their original plan? Also, we have no idea that if we extend Gallardo to 30+ innings this year, he will get injured in future seasons. Comparing him to Prior is just one example. I know there are many others but I'm also sure there are plenty of young guys who didn't have their innings limited that never did get hurt in furture seasons.

 

In october last year I read and posted an article here predicting Florida and Detroit would have problems with pitcher injury this season based on the amount of innings they had their young pitchers throw vs the previous year. This season Detroit lost one and Florida lost two or three (not sure if the third was in the same category) to arm injuries. Anytime someone can use data to predict something and it turns out to be true it should be a good indicator that there is a strong relationship.

[rluzinski]

Melvin has already made clear that he's strictly limiting Yo's innings this year, so why are some pretending that it isn't going to happen?

[TauPentaRei]

Melvin has already made clear that he's strictly limiting Yo's innings this year, so why are some pretending that it isn't going to happen?

 

not that i agree with devil's advocatism, but Melvin has always been 100% honest with the media