Are expectations too high for the Brewers?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Not saying I agree with this, but this is an interesting article from Rosenthal. He mentions the Mariners from last year collapsing after having similar expectations. Interesting read at least.

http://msn.foxsports.com/...ers-biggest-issue-030911

[RockCoCougars]

You have to consider that the Brewers actually have a major league lineup compared to the Mariners, who had maybe a third of one last year. OK, maybe the Brewers have a 2/3 major league lineup, but still.

[crewcrazy]

Rosenthal's been pushing this comparison to the 2010 Mariners since December, and it's pretty ridiculous. The Mariners hoped to win games 2-1 last year with that lineup. The Brewers hope to win games 7-1 this year.

 

He's basing this on the fact that both teams made a splash by making a trade for a Cy Young starter, and nothing else. Using that criteria, the Brewers could just as easily be the Phillies post-Halladay trade.

[The Truth]

Rosenthal seems to be losing credibility by the minute. The Brewers have so much more offensive fire-power than the Mariners could dream of....

[PrinceEatMeat]

I agree that the comparison is kind of stupid. The expectations may be a little high for the Brewers, but I do think we have a good chance to live up to them. The Mariners never seemed to have that chance.

[logan82]

The Brewers record last year was much closer to their win differential than the Mariners in 2009.

[SpottedCow]

You have to consider that the Brewers actually have a major league lineup compared to the Mariners, who had maybe a third of one last year. OK, maybe the Brewers have a 2/3 major league lineup, but still.

Agreed. I don't recall exactly, but I remember looking at the M's lineup in August or September and seeing they had 6 or 7 guys in the every day lineup with a sub .750 OPS. IIRC, they were pretty close to finishing with the worst full season OPS in major league history.

 

Not only do the Brewers have Weeks, Braun, Prince, McGehee, and Hart, but they have a pretty decent middle to back end of the rotation, as well. After King Felix and Cliff Lee, Seattle was relying on Ryan Rowland-Smith, Ian Snell, and some other has beens, at least until they presumed Erik Bedard would return (which he obviously didn't).

 

The comparison doesn't hold any water.

[davemakovec]

Yeah, the 2010 Mariners didn't have a single offensive player who would supplant a Brewers player this year, except for maybe Ichiro. That was a singularly bad offense. When your lineup is a black hole 2-9, you're in serious trouble. Seriously, the third-highest OPS on the team was .666. Their best OPS came from a guy (Russell the Muscle) who played in 57 games, and that was .802. The Brewers last year had five guys over that, and they all played in 140+ games.

[joepepsi]

The Mariners were last in the league in runs scored in 2009. The run differential indicated they "should" have finished 10 games worse than they did. They were incredibly lucky in 2009. In 2010 they finished right about where their stats took them. Jack Z made a huge mistake thinking 2009 was a true representation of the team. In the end it will probably cost him his job.

 

The comparison to the Brewers doesn't hold up at any level.

[Ennder]

Nobody with a solid statistical background in baseball thought the Mariners would be good in 2001. They are a team that won way more than they should have in 2009 and they weren't able to repeat it. In 2009 they gave up 52 more runs than they scored and managed to somehow win 85 games, it was just a fluke season. They largely brought back the same team and have very little in the way of young talent, there was no reason to expect anything but a losing season from them in 2010.

 

Of course the Brewers aren't as good as some people say either, they aren't a 90 win team or anything. They are a very flawed roster with below replacement level players at SS, little to no depth and most likely the worst fielding in MLB, combine that with the most brutal interleague schedule in baseball and we are a slightly over .500 team. Good thing nobody else in the NL central is much more than an 85 win team either, which ever one has the most luck in close games and is the healthiest will probably take it. So he gets most of it right, just the comparison to the Mariners is terrible because nobody should have had expectations that the Mariners would be any good last year.

[sauveb]

High expectations? Higher than what we post here? We expect the Brewers to go 162-0 every year. How can they get any higher than that? :-)

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I thought the overall article was a solid presentation of the bear case on the Brewers. Their two biggest problems they have are depth & defense and he highlighted both. I don't quite get the Mariners angle...last year seemed like trying to put lipstick on a pig from an absentee owner forcing Jack Z to make some short term stupid moves (or Jack Z trying to impress his absentee owner with said stupid moves). I think DM & MA properly played the hand they were dealt and had better cards to start.

 

Within the division they are kind of the trendy pick...but so were the Reds last year.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think it's gonna be a dog fight for the NL Central this year between the Brewers, Reds, and Cards. Should be fun to watch. We should be playing meaningful games in September again, and that is fun in itself.

[BrewCrewForever]

Comparing the 2011 Brewers to the 2010 Mariners is ridiculous. Rosenthal is an idiot. Yes both have hyped pitching staffs, but the Brewers offense is way, way better than the Mariners was. It is not even close. This Brewers offense has 5 potential All-Star caliber players. That Mariners team had zero. Nuff said.

[davemakovec]

I always considered the expectations for the Brewers that they have a shot to compete for the Central this year if people perform to their potential and things break the right way. I'm not sure where the "Let's expect the Brewers to win the World Series!" talk is coming from.

[brewerguy71]

I dont think the expectations for the team are generally too high. If your expectation is that they will compete and have an outside shot at the division, then you are with the consensus.

 

Even though the offense of this year's Brewers wont be as ineffective as last year's Mariners, it wont be as good as it was the past few years. McGehee, Hart and Weeks probably wont produce as they did last year, and those two things; along with a questionable bullpen, will be the things that will ultimately keep them out of this year's playoffs.

[Ennder]

McGehee, Hart and Weeks probably wont produce as they did last year, and those two things; along with a questionable bullpen

 

There are good chances that Fielder and Braun hit better than last year though. I don't expect a big dropoff in offense. The bullpen also is probably going to be better than last years which was a mess. I'm much more worried about the bench/depth and the defense.

[dlk9s]

I don't see how the bullpen is "questionable." Looks pretty solid to me.

[RockCoCougars]

McGehee, Hart and Weeks probably wont produce as they did last year, and those two things; along with a questionable bullpen

There are good chances that Fielder and Braun hit better than last year though. I don't expect a big dropoff in offense. The bullpen also is probably going to be better than last years which was a mess. I'm much more worried about the bench/depth and the defense.

Exactly. If you get a semblance of the 2009 versions of Braun and

Fielder with improved starting pitching, I don't know if you need much

more. I think the bullpen is much improved over last year as well. I couldn't be any worse than it was until Axford emerged.

[BrewCrewForever]

I don't see how the bullpen is "questionable." Looks pretty solid to me.

Co-sign. Looking at how we have, it seems pretty darn good. Axford, Saito, Loe, Braddock, Hawkins, Parra and Green seem to be a pretty good group of 7. Also have guys that could come up from AAA like McClendon, Kintzler, Stetter, etc if an injury or someone is not effective.

[logan82]

Axford is unproven with a high walk rate. He could falter. If he does we have the people to pick him but our margin of error is so small we could already be sunk by the time we replace him. Saito has injury concerns.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I fully expect this team to make the playoffs, after that all bets are off. Is that too high???

[craigharmann]

High expectations? Higher than what we post here? We expect the Brewers to go 162-0 every year. How can they get any higher than that? :-)

 

 

174-0

[logan82]

I fully expect this team to make the playoffs, after that all bets are off. Is that too high???

Yes, it is. I think the realistic expectation is to be in the playoff race for most of the season but eventually probably miss by a couple games. If we get off to a good start and the Reds don't or the Reds have more key injuries then we are probably the favorites.

[ilovebeer]

If everyone was healthy no, but with all the injuries i am not sure.