McGehee contract -- Latest: Signs one-year deal (pre-arby); unclear if long-term discussions continue

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/117202593.html

Looks like that's the reason he's the only player unsigned on the 40-man roster.

[Warning Track Power]

This would be excellent news. While I do believe we have seen his peak potential, I feel his floor is still high enough to justify the extension. Seeing as he isn't scheduled to be a free agent until after the 2014 season (4 seasons still under team control), I can see the Brewers offering him something in the ballpark of 3 years/$10MM ~$3.3MM/season, which would be approximately 7 1/2x what he made in 2010. A low risk contract which wouldn't hamstring the franchise in the event he completely tanks or struggles and a heckuva bargain if he continues on, as he is going through his prime years during this contract.

 

Makes complete sense because Casey would begin to get pretty expensive in arbitration if he duplicates 2010 in 2011.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would rather not extend McGehee, & go year-to-year with him. If the deal buys out two FA seasons, & is a very nice hometown discount, then I guess I could see doing it. Otherwise, there's really no point imo.

[logan82]

3 years/$10m is probably more than he will earn in the next 3 years. He is league minimum this year or at most $500,000. Something like $2m next year maybe and $5m tops the next year. He isn't that special of a player. By the time he hits free agency he will be in his decline years. A multi year deal seems pretty pointless in my opinion.

[greeg35]

I think a low cost deal to seal his arby years is fine just to add predictability to the payroll (and give him some injury protection). I'd actually rather not buy out any free agency with him.

[berniebrewer4life]

I think a low cost deal to seal his arby years is fine just to add predictability to the payroll (and give him some injury protection). I'd actually rather not buy out any free agency with him.

agreed. He's 28, so he'll be 32 by the time he's a free agent. At that point, he's more than likely past his prime. No need to buy out his early 30s.

[chadomac]

I would rather go year-to-year on McGehee. He's not going to get any better, and I don't think he's in very good shape. I see his production likely to fall off a cliff within the next few years. I like him for what he is right here and now, but I wouldn't want to lock him in for more than another couple years at most.

[DHonks]

I could see going year-to-year these 4 seasons costing the Brewers in the neighborhood of $15-17 million (.5-.7, 3-3.5, 5.5, 7.5). So a 3 years and $10 million seems fine.

[MNBrew]

Casey McGehee's solid but not exactly Ryan Braun. I can see getting the next 2-4 years squared away, but I highly doubt you'd see something going 5 or more, which is what it'd take to start buying out FA years.

[BrewCrewForever]

I am in favor of buying our arbitration years and maybe 1 free agent season. I guess it all depends on the total value of the contract. I just wonder what the rush might be on the Brewers side.

[BREWCREW5]

Man oh man. People on here constantly under estimate Casey.

 

I enjoy him proving all of you wrong all the time.

[Schlitz001]

If the Brewers aren't going to offer a contract past his arbitration years, they should just stick to year to year deals. I think there is a greater chance of McGehee declining in production than turning into a superstud 3rd baseman. He's had the knee surgery and he wasn't exactly a can't miss prospect. Best case scenario for McGehee is that he puts up a few more seasons like his last two and the Brewers have to shell out a little bit extra in arbitration dollars. And I love Casey, I'm just trying to be realistic.

[dlk9s]

[quote author=Schlitz001 wrote:

[/b]he wasn't exactly a can't miss prospect.

Can people stop using this as a negative about McGehee? Who cares what kind of prospect he was? Judge him on his offensive, abilities, defensive abilities, character, and overall future potential, not on what the Cubs thought of him a few years ago.

 

Mike Piazza wasn't exactly a can't miss prospect either (and no, I'm not saying McGehee is a future HOF'er).

[dlk9s]

MNBrew]Casey McGehee's solid but not exactly Ryan Braun.

There are only a handful of players in the league as good as or better than Ryan Braun. If McGehee gets a Ryan Braun contract, I'd be concerned, but he's not going to, so I won't be.

[GormanHarvey]

I would rather go year-to-year on McGehee. He's not going to get any better, and I don't think he's in very good shape. I see his production likely to fall off a cliff within the next few years. I like him for what he is right here and now, but I wouldn't want to lock him in for more than another couple years at most.

 

 

I definitely disagree with the the sentiment that he's out of shape this year. I saw him at On Deck in January and he appeared to be in much better shape than the previous 2 years with the Brewers. I think we will see an improved defender this season

[DHonks]

Just curious, but are there many better 3b?

 

Central has Rolen (injury risk), Ramirez (injury risk), Alvarez (not as good as McGehee, but might change soon), Cards????, Astros???

 

What 3b are clearly better values (meaning Beltre doesn't count)...ARod, Longoria, Zimmerman (not sure), etc. McGehee might rank in the top 1/3rd of third basemen, and might be among the top 3 or 4 values at the position.

[davemakovec]

I'd go year to year, too. It's the rare player in the post-steroid era that continues to earn his pay past about 32. I would be leery of signing a long contract with a player who doesn't have an outstanding level of underlying talent. Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun are the caliber of talent you want to take a risk signing into their thirties. Casey McGehee is a fine, solid player, but I do not think he's the type on whom you want to take that risk. I have no problem buying out his Arby's ® years at a reasonable price, though.

 

As for DHonks, the question is not what better values are there now, but what better values will there be in four years when Casey's physical skills start to decline?

[Schlitz001]

[quote author=Schlitz001 wrote:

[/b]he wasn't exactly a can't miss prospect.

Can people stop using this as a negative about McGehee? Who cares what kind of prospect he was? Judge him on his offensive, abilities, defensive abilities, character, and overall future potential, not on what the Cubs thought of him a few years ago.

 

Mike Piazza wasn't exactly a can't miss prospect either (and no, I'm not saying McGehee is a future HOF'er).

All I'm saying is that you want the greatest possible return when you sign a player to a contract. If you want to judge McGehee on his offensive and defensive abilities, I don't see how you can narrow your window of judgment down to 1 1/2 years of major league experience. I'm not even criticizing McGehee for what he did in the minor leagues, because his numbers weren't half bad, but I'm trying to get a full view statistically of who he is as a player.

[danzig6767]

DHonks]I could see going year-to-year these 4 seasons costing the Brewers in the neighborhood of $15-17 million (.5-.7, 3-3.5, 5.5, 7.5). So a 3 years and $10 million seems fine.

What am i missing here?

 

By your numbers, you seem to believe that McGehee would earn around 9-10 million over the next three years if the team went year to year with him, so you think we'd be better served to just give him a 3/yr 10 million dollar deal instead. Where is the benefit to the Brewers in that by guaranteeing those three years with very little discount, if any for guaranteeing those three years?

 

Unless a team gets a noticeable discount for guaranteeing years that they don't have to guarantee by just going year to year instead, i don't see the point of it for the team? Sure it's possible that Casey will play even better over the next three years than he has the last two years and thus, his arbitration amounts could get pretty high, but it's just as possible or more likely that his numbers remain roughly the same, are worse, or he suffers from an injury or two.

[cwolf2012]

If the Brewers want to buy out arby years at a discount, I guess I'm okay with it. I just don't understand why you would invest money in a guy who has a reasonably 'meh' track record in the minors and has concerns about his range at age 28.

[GAME05]

if McGehee truly has just about peaked performance-wise (which ain't too shabby!), then what would we really be saving by locking him up instead of going year-to-year? about $8M? despite an injury-free past, any player can get hurt or just tank, and it doesn't seem like $8M is enough of a savings to be accepting that risk. i would say it was justified in the case of Braun just because we were catching him at the start of what we guessed to be some spectacular next few years.

[JohnBriggs12]

First class citizen. Excellent role model. Wasn't given anything, had to work for it. Produced when given the chance. What's not to like about Casey McGehee?

 

I don't think locking him up until he's 32 is a big risk.

[Baldkin]

Schlitz001 wrote:

he wasn't exactly a can't miss prospect.

Can people stop using this as a negative about McGehee? Who cares what kind of prospect he was? Judge him on his offensive, abilities, defensive abilities, character, and overall future potential, not on what the Cubs thought of him a few years ago.

I will call this Bill Hall syndrome. A solid two seasons does not make a superstar.

[Invader3K]

I think the Bill Hall memory looms large on Brewerfandom. I admit being one of the ones in favor of Hall's contract at the time, but it was obviously a mistake in retrospect. I think the difference with Casey McGehee is that he isn't as flawed as Hall was. Sure, defensively, Hall was (and probably still is), a better player. Definitely Hall has the better body type and is more athletic. However, offensively, I think McGehee is the much safer bet. He has a normal stance and a very compact swing, not the open stance and wild swing of Hall. I think the odds of Casey regressing like Billy did are very low. Will he always put up numbers like he did in 2010? Probably not, but I don't think he's going to drop off the map, either.

 

Would I give him an extension? I don't know. It really depends on what the numbers look like and if there are any opt out club options. Casey really hasn't made much money yet in his MLB career, and might not take a ton of money to sign to a 4-5 year deal. The thing for the Brewers is that they can set up some cost certainty. If McGehee has a 2011 similar to his 2010 season, he will become expensive very quickly.

[Ennder]

I was never a big Bill Hall guy, he never had solid basic skills and his fit was always best as a utility guy mostly playing vs LHP.

 

I see no reason to buy out any FA years for McGehee though. He is a 3B with bad knees which undermines his defensive skills and likely will just get worse, he isn't really athletic enough to move to the OF and his bat wouldn't really play at 1B. I just don't see a big reason to keep him after his age 31 year. Some sort of cost control deal for his arbitration years is fine I guess, as long as he gives a bit of a discount since all of the risk is on the teams side.