Luis Cruz: better option than Betancourt?

[rcon14]

I actually like him better than Yuniesky Betancourt at SS. Betancourt is average with the bat, but has a low OBP, and is an awful defender. His WAR the past 2 years has been .6 and -1.7. I feel that even if Cruz is slightly worse offensively, he's a good defender and I think he'd be a better option since the defense of the team is bad.

[Invader3K]

Cruz is supposed to be pretty good defensively, and may get a shot in spring training. I doubt he'll be the starting shortstop on Opening Day, but if Betancourt struggles early, I guess you never know.

[Ennder]

An all glove no bat SS is a significant upgrade over Betancourt but it doesn't sound like it is going to happen. I just hope Counsell gets a lot of playtime since Betancourt is horrible against RHP.

[RockCoCougars]

He could be. It should be an interesting spring. Call me a skeptic, but I want to see with my own eyes that Betancourt is really the worst shortstop ever before I start believing it..... WAR be darned.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just curious, and honestly not meaning to troll/bait on this, but would you need to see Felix Hernandez (heck, or Zack Greinke) with your own eyes to believe he's a good pitcher? I scratch my head when people suggest that perhaps Betancourt isn't as bad as his statistics have been for the past 3 seasons. You don't tend to see people doubting that good players' stats are accurate depictions of their values, why should the reverse be true?

 

Overall, I think I'd like to see Cruz get a shot since his defense is likely so much better than Betancourt's. However, Yuni isn't a bad option at the plate against lefties, so hoping that/if Counsell can handle a decent workload, mixing them in might be palatable.

[Ennder]

You'll be hard pressed to find someone who has less faith in Betancourt than I do but I can understand the wait and see attitude. Defensive stats don't always mesh with what people see with their eyes. Also he has been on a lot of bad teams where maybe the effort level wasn't where it should have been by mid season. He is also moving to the easier league and from one of the harder divisions in baseball for a hitter into one of the easier ones. He's also moving to a better hitting park and will have much better players around him. He is young enough that you could see improvement this year. I don't have much faith in him or Gomez being above replacement level offensively though.

[RobDeer 45]

You can count me in on wanting to see things with my own eyes. That goes for Grienke, Marcum, and YB. And I think I do it more with bad players than good ones. I think it's because I tend to look for the positive in every situation. So I personally do need to see him play before I can make my own opinion. If he can show a little pop and field most balls he gets too, I will be able to live with him for awhile.

[joepepsi]

What is the over/under for offense making up for bad defense? Or vice versa? There seems to be this blind belief the last couple years that we should return to the days of Ed Brinkman where good defense justifies a total absence of offense, but decent offense doesn't make up for bad defense. So where is the line drawn? This is one area where stats measurements need to mature.

 

Cruz' minor league numbers indicate an offensive player with similarly horrible obp and batting average, and absolutely zero power. He's been a much worse hitter in the minors than Yuni. If those numbers are any indication of major league ability with the bat, then he might have to be the absolute best ss to ever play the game in order to be an improvement over Yuni. Betancourt may be bad, but Cruz is going to have to play better than he ever has at any level to be the better option.

 

Cruz may be an OK backup, but I have a hard time believing he provides more wins for the Brewers than Yuni, given past history.

[logan82]

Ennder[/b] wrote:

[/b]Also he has been on a lot of bad teams where maybe the effort level wasn't where it should have been by mid season.

That really isn't the case though. His splits in 2008-2010 suggest nothing like that. His best month is August and other than that they look up and down like any other player.

 

Do we really want to count on a guy who plays poorly if he is unhappy.

 

It isn't like just "the stats" don't like him. Scouts and fans also didn't like him either. He hits the trifecta for player suckage.

[liveforoctober]

I realize it is winter ball and a small sample size ... but I'm going to throw some gasoline on the fire anyway...

Luis Cruz offensive line in the Mexican League this winter was awesome.

178 PAs over 45 games, .325/.364/.633, 15 2B, 12 HR, 12 BB, 15 K

BB/K rate is bad... but we are talking about a potential replacement for Betancourt so that shouldn't matter. If he could hit .260 over a full season I'd think it would be an upgrade over YB for the defense alone. Not sure where that power came from though ... his career minor HR to at bat ratio was 1:60 or so ... wouldn't count on any power in the big leagues.

I'm hoping this turns into a story.

[owbc]

I do feel a little bad for Yuniesky because Brewers fans are going to be after him from day one. I hope he doesn't hear a few boos when he is announced on Opening Day, but seriously, all he has to do is make one glaring mistake and the fans are going to be all over him.

 

That being said, I'm not sure that we should just throw a rookie shortstop out there when we are going for the pennant this year. Hardy and Escobar both had painful learning curves. Of course there is high upside with a young player, but at least we know what to expect with Betancourt. He will probably end up being terrible, and then the fans will get on him and management will send him packing like they (eventually) did with Suppan.

 

However, maybe being on a good team in a pennant chase with a new manager in front of large home crowds will do some good for him. My feeling is that it probably will make no difference, but there isn't much risk in trying him out for a month. If he stinks and Cruz puts up good numbers in ST and April, the situation will take care of itself.

[logan82]

Luis Cruz is 27 and has been in the minors for parts of 10 different seasons. This isn't a situation like Gamel where the guy is MLB ready but has nowhere to start. He has been a really bad hitter for a long long time.

[NYChez]

I heard Betancourt's deal isn't his glove but his throws to first. Maybe Sveum or someone can work with him to correct it.

[Oxy]

NYChez]I heard Betancourt's deal isn't his glove but his throws to first. Maybe Sveum or someone can work with him to correct it.

That's bad news when you have a 5'10" immobile first basemen. Prince has improved over the years, but still. Speaking of defense at first base, I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008. Color me skeptical about defensive advanced metrics, or any defensive metrics for that matter.

[Ennder]

I heard Betancourt's deal isn't his glove but his throws to first. Maybe Sveum or someone can work with him to correct it.

That's bad news when you have a 5'10" immobile first basemen. Prince has improved over the years, but still. Speaking of defense at first base, I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008. Color me skeptical about defensive advanced metrics, or any defensive metrics for that matter.

Doesn't surprise me at all, no positional player touches the ball more often than the 1B. The best of fielding 1B have always been underrated.

[Baldkin]

I heard Betancourt's deal isn't his glove but his throws to first. Maybe Sveum or someone can work with him to correct it.

Every single thing I've heard about him is the exact opposite. Great arm. Soft hands. Range of about a phone booth. He gets to nothing.

[JohnBriggs12]

Cruz isn't anything special defensively. His FP last year at AAA was a pedestrian .967. His range is no better than average. His career minor league OBP is under .300. He may be harder to walk than Betancourt, with less power and lower BA. My guess is he'd hit .225/.270/.340. He'd have to be Ozzie Smith to play regularly hitting like that.

 

They'd be better off giving Farris some looks at SS this spring if they want an internal solution. Don't forget they also have Edwin Maysonet in camp. He's not been much of a hitter but he has shown better on base skills in the minors than has Cruz and actually hit pretty well (.290/.333/.362) in a very small sample of 79 plate appearances with Houston in 09.

[Funketown]

I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008.

Where did you find this info? Fangraphs has Pujols about 20th in UZR in 2008. Don't forget that metrics like UZR compare first baseman to league average first baseman. A +10 at 1B is significantly less impressive than a +5 at SS.

[Thurston Fluff]

I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008.

 

The skills needed to be a first baseman is so different than those needed in center for instance that it makes no sense to compare them. WAR IMHO is the most useless advanced metric in baseball. Defensive WAR even less useful.

[Oxy]

I was doing some exploring recently and noticed that Pujols led the league in defensive WAR (all positions) in 2007 and 2008.

Where did you find this info? Fangraphs has Pujols about 20th in UZR in 2008. Don't forget that metrics like UZR compare first baseman to league average first baseman. A +10 at 1B is significantly less impressive than a +5 at SS.

Baseball-reference. I'm no guru, so I don't know how their stats differ from FanGraphs, but just after taking a quick look at each site their WAR numbers are totally different. That is very annoying when different sites can use the exact same label/acronym for a stat that is computed quite differently.

[Funketown]

^ They use Total Zone on Baseball-Reference.com, and they don't adjust for position. FWIW, I'm big on defensive metrics, and I really don't think BR's defensive WAR tells a good story.

[HiAndTight]

Just curious, and honestly not meaning to troll/bait on this, but would you need to see Felix Hernandez (heck, or Zack Greinke) with your own eyes to believe he's a good pitcher? I scratch my head when people suggest that perhaps Betancourt isn't as bad as his statistics have been for the past 3 seasons. You don't tend to see people doubting that good players' stats are accurate depictions of their values, why should the reverse be true?

It's a helluva lot easier to get a read on a guys pitching using numbers than it is to get a read on a guys defense.

 

Betancourt is a a bad offensive player who at least hits for some power, and we'll see just how bad he is defensively. He was also a guy with a lot of tools when he came up, so perhaps a contender will help him rededicate himself.

[HiAndTight]

I do feel a little bad for Yuniesky because Brewers fans are going to be after him from day one. I hope he doesn't hear a few boos when he is announced on Opening Day, but seriously, all he has to do is make one glaring mistake and the fans are going to be all over him.

I think you're overestimating the average fan. I think a lot of them see the 16/78 and they'll easily give him.....a week..maybe two..

[logan82]

"If you looked at Ozzie Smith, and he was the best shortstop I've

ever seen, part of that was because Ozzie was so smart. He positioned

himself so well. Alex Rodriguez was the same thing (as a shortstop). His

footwork is the best I've seen. He never threw a ball away at short.

 

 

 

 

 

 

"How do you

judge that on a computer? They say (Betancourt's) range isn't good but

maybe he was smart enough and positioned himself well.

 

I think there is a huge misunderstanding in how defensive metrics

work here. If he positioned himself well his range would look really

good.

 

"You don't see that flash where he's flying to the ball. He's moving OK;

he's just a smooth runner. He's not as fast as those two I mentioned

but he has good hands and a good arm. I think he makes the steady play. I

don't consider him a defensive liability."

The defender

they are describing is JJ Hardy. Hardy grades out well in defensive

metrics. Doesn't look flashy, positions himself well, good instincts.

 

 

Orlando Cabrera

grades out really bad. He plays on a winning team every year."

Fantastic. Braun has played on mostly mediocre or bad teams. He must not be a good player. In fact the Brewers had a losing record after his call-up in 2007. Must be his fault they missed the playoffs that year.

"People talk to me about it but it's in my blood," said Betancourt.

"Latin people don't walk too many times. We just go out there and

swing."

Way to perpetuate the stereotype dude.

[davemakovec]

TH in his brewers blog today talks about Roenicke wanting a utility middle infielder, which could bode well for Cruz. That way, we could have a slick-fielding replacement on the roster!