Carlos Marmol signs 3-yr. extension for $20M

[TooLiveBrew]

Rosenthal

 

Bought out his final two arbitration seasons.

 

'11: $3.2M

'12: $7M

'13: $9.8M

 

 

Marmol had submitted a number of $5.65M for his 2011 arbitration case, compared to the Cubs' counter of $4.1M. I'm trying to glean some hope about the Weeks situation from this right now.

[crewcrazy]

A lot of money for a guy with some pretty scary walk rates. If he keeps up his current level of production for the next three years it won't look too bad, but if he has an off year or begins to regress (both very possible any given year with relief pitchers), it's going to look pretty ugly.

[Ennder]

Yeah I fully expect Marmol to crash and burn in the next 3 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

That doesn't really make any sense. Yes, his walk rate stinks, but his strikeout rate is otherworldly. He's given up 3 home runs in the past two seasons (151.2 IP). Three. With Wrigley as a home park. The guy is a studly reliever, bad walk rate or not.

[Invader3K]

That doesn't really make any sense. Yes, his walk rate stinks, but his strikeout rate is otherworldly. He's given up 3 home runs in the past two seasons (151.2 IP). Three. With Wrigley as a home park. The guy is a studly reliever, bad walk rate or not.

Yeah, I agree. Seems like a pretty reasonable contract to me. He's going into his age 28 season, so I would assume the odds of him "falling off a cliff" production wise are fairly low.

[Funketown]

While I don't have much to base it off of, I feel like flame throwing high strikeout/high walk relievers are prone to falling apart. It seems like a fine contract, and his strikeout numbers are frankly ludicrous, but I have a feeling that when Marmol loses it, he's really going to lose it.

[Ennder]

There have not been many RP in history that could stay successful with the huge K huge BB skillset. Scott Williamson is one of his higher comparables and that would be my guess as to how his career goes as well.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...yerid=361&position=P

 

Matt Mantei is another good comp

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...ayerid=64&position=P

 

I couldn't find a guy who walked as many as Marmol does and stayed good long term. Closest to it are guys like Mitch Williams and Brad Lidge who were all over the place during their careers but in the long run were good.

[TooLiveBrew]

Both of those pitchers' (Mantei & Williamson) problems, though, were injuries. If Marmol has major arm injuries like they did, then yeah, he absolutely could flame out. So if you're guessing that's how Marmol's career will go, you're really just saying you think he's going to blow out his arm and/or shoulder. I can understand thinking that, but I don't think he's suddenly going to fall off a cliff just because.

[Ennder]

Williamson's decline started before he ever got hurt but yeah injury has something to do with it as does loss in velocity. When you have such poor command of your pitches anything that interferes with your game is going to start really causing problems. That kind of control almost universally points towards problems with mechanics as well. I can only find a single pitcher who walks as much as Marmol does that was able to keep a sub 3.50 ERA over a big chunk of innings and that was John Rocker and there is a good case to be made his wouldn't have stayed that way if he pitched longer. It just isn't the type of skillset that seems to last.

[jerichoholicninja]

It literally hurts me to watch Marmol pitch. I can't believe the guy hasn't destroyed his shoulder yet but I'm pretty sure he will soon.

[PKBadger]

While I don't have much to base it off of, I feel like flame throwing high strikeout/high walk relievers are prone to falling apart.

Whatever gave you that impression? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

http://yogibrewer.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/images/not_again.jpg

[Warning Track Power]

While I don't have much to base it off of, I feel like flame throwing high strikeout/high walk relievers are prone to falling apart.

Whatever gave you that impression? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

http://yogibrewer.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/images/not_again.jpg

Ouch...I just liked Turnbow and not just because he played for us. He just seemed like a good dude. I always hoped he would turn it around either here or in Texas.

 

[danzig6767]

That doesn't really make any sense. Yes, his walk rate stinks, but his strikeout rate is otherworldly. He's given up 3 home runs in the past two seasons (151.2 IP). Three. With Wrigley as a home park. The guy is a studly reliever, bad walk rate or not.

It's not just the lack of home runs, he allows so few hits. In the last three years covering 243 innings, Marmol has only allowed 123 hits. So yea, he does walk to many hitters, but he mitigates that by such a fabulous BAA every year. Batters just rarely make good contact with his pitches. That slider he throws is flat out filthy. It looks more like a wiffle ball being thrown than a real baseball.

[monty57]

My biggest concern would be how he was abused by Cub managers early in his career until he became their closer. It didn't matter the situation... if the Cubs were playing, there was a good chance Marmol would be in the game at some point.