Best Site for MLB Standings Projections?

[RobDeer 45]

Just wondering what site typically has descent standings projections, any help would be great. I know I've seen you guys reference some on there before.

[thumperden]

www.baseballprospectus.com is a great site that I refer to regularly. A lot of it is a pay site however, but it memory serves, you can access projections for free. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[PrinceFielderx1]

www.baseballprospectus.com is a great site that I refer to regularly. A lot of it is a pay site however, but it memory serves, you can access projections for free. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Didn't they have the Brewers at 75 wins in 2011? I can't remember....

 

Edit: 2011 standings are coming soon according to their site..

[Ennder]

Teams can easily win or lose 10% more games than they 'should have' just from bad luck with clutch hitting or bad spread of runs scored etc. Not to mention major injuries and major breakouts throw things out of whack. You won't find a site that has really strong predictions of what will actually happen. Baseballprospectus is decent for projections but I wouldn't bet my money on what they say. They said standings are hopefully coming on Wed but they tweak them as spring training goes along so the first draft isn't what you see by the start of the season.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

BP had this on their site, but now the link doesn't work so I just copied it. Feel free to delete it if a better link comes on.

Early read has the Crew on top...

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/2/15/1995826/projecting-yankees-to-miss-playoffs

<font face="courier"><p>Generated Sun Feb 13 10:18:48 EST 2011
</p>[hr][pre]Average wins by position in AL East: 96.9 89.0 83.5 78.1 71.0
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/aleastpec.png]AL East[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/RedSoxpsoddspec.php]Red Sox[/url] 0 0 .580 92.6 69.4 53.25499 15.17171 68.42670
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Devilpsoddspec.php]Rays[/url] 0 0 .538 84.6 77.4 17.90253 15.05362 32.95615
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Yankeespsoddspec.php]Yankees[/url] 0 0 .531 83.2 78.8 14.32638 12.82743 27.15381
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Bluepsoddspec.php]Blue Jays[/url] 0 0 .514 80.5 81.5 9.10840 9.34078 18.44918
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Oriolespsoddspec.php]Orioles[/url] 0 0 .497 77.6 84.4 5.40770 6.03210 11.43980

---

Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.5 85.3 79.7 74.0 66.6
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/alcentpec.png]AL Central[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Twinspsoddspec.php]Twins[/url] 0 0 .537 86.0 76.0 39.57293 7.05805 46.63097
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Tigerspsoddspec.php]Tigers[/url] 0 0 .517 82.6 79.4 24.86493 6.41937 31.28430
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Whitepsoddspec.php]White Sox[/url] 0 0 .517 82.6 79.4 24.77224 6.37997 31.15221
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Royalspsoddspec.php]Royals[/url] 0 0 .467 73.7 88.3 5.66006 1.82920 7.48926
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Indianspsoddspec.php]Indians[/url] 0 0 .465 73.2 88.8 5.12985 1.68899 6.81883

---

Average wins by position in AL west: 91.7 84.1 78.0 70.6
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/alwestpec.png]AL West[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Rangerspsoddspec.php]Rangers[/url] 0 0 .536 85.5 76.5 42.17781 5.65521 47.83302
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Athleticspsoddspec.php]Athletics[/url] 0 0 .520 82.4 79.6 27.80458 5.44458 33.24915
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Angelspsoddspec.php]Angels[/url] 0 0 .501 79.2 82.8 17.20348 3.97244 21.17592
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Marinerspsoddspec.php]Mariners[/url] 0 0 .491 77.3 84.7 12.81414 3.12657 15.94071

Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.0

---

Average wins by position in NL East: 93.3 86.3 81.0 75.8 68.7
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/nleastpec.png]NL East[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Philliespsoddspec.php]Phillies[/url] 0 0 .524 86.8 75.2 39.64958 8.42560 48.07518
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Bravespsoddspec.php]Braves[/url] 0 0 .501 82.9 79.1 23.05570 7.45482 30.51052
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Marlinspsoddspec.php]Marlins[/url] 0 0 .496 81.9 80.1 19.76556 6.78316 26.54871
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Metspsoddspec.php]Mets[/url] 0 0 .477 78.5 83.5 11.45670 4.49430 15.95100
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Nationalspsoddspec.php]Nationals[/url] 0 0 .454 74.9 87.1 6.07247 2.53004 8.60250

---

Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.3 86.8 82.0 77.5 72.4 64.9
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/nlcentpec.png]NL Central[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Brewerspsoddspec.php]Brewers[/url] 0 0 .516 85.5 76.5 32.13464 8.65007 40.78471
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Cardinalspsoddspec.php]Cardinals[/url] 0 0 .499 83.2 78.8 23.13852 7.72443 30.86295
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Redspsoddspec.php]Reds[/url] 0 0 .496 82.7 79.3 21.47737 7.50139 28.97876
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Cubspsoddspec.php]Cubs[/url] 0 0 .485 80.5 81.5 15.16335 5.92916 21.09251
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Piratespsoddspec.php]Pirates[/url] 0 0 .455 75.7 86.3 6.43399 2.98030 9.41429
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Astrospsoddspec.php]Astros[/url] 0 0 .422 69.3 92.7 1.65213 .81340 2.46553

---

Average wins by position in NL West: 94.1 87.0 81.6 76.0 68.3
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/nlwestpec.png]NL West[/url] W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Rockiespsoddspec.php]Rockies[/url] 0 0 .523 87.1 74.9 36.91618 10.61655 47.53272
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Dodgerspsoddspec.php]Dodgers[/url] 0 0 .512 85.0 77.0 27.57145 10.10748 37.67893
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Giantspsoddspec.php]Giants[/url] 0 0 .504 83.5 78.5 22.32625 9.10901 31.43526
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Diamondbackspsoddspec.php]Diamondbacks[/url] 0 0 .474 78.3 83.7 9.57135 4.90836 14.47971
[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/Padrespsoddspec.php]Padres[/url] 0 0 .446 73.1 88.9 3.61476 1.97196 5.58672

Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.8

[/pre]

[Ennder]

They stated they were releasing the depth chart to beta members today and then real members hopefully on Wed so maybe those are the beta run.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Direct link seems to be working now.

 

http://www.baseballprospe...tatistics/ps_oddspec.php

[Ennder]

They are up officially now, I think it might be subscriber only though?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

 

Cardinals 1st place with 87 wins, Brewers 2nd with 85 wins, Reds 3rd with 81 if others cant' see it. These change quite a bit as the preseason goes. Pretty much the difference between us and the Cardinals is we have a below replacement level SS and PECOTA doesn't believe in Axford.

 

Pretty much mirrors my thoughts on the season, we will miss the playoffs by a game or two specifically because we didn't replace Betancourt. Any warm body would be an upgrade.

[1992casey]

You can see the front page with projected records without logging in. Clicking through to the depth charts requires a paid subscription.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Projections and the Betancourt issue aside, it sure doesn't help that we have a May- June gauntlet to run in Interleague play whereas the Cards get the Royals six times and the Orioles. It could really come down to that even if the Brewers perform a bit better than the projections statistically. The Cards have room for error, the Brewers probably don't have that luxury.......

[Ennder]

That is certainly true. The Cardinals average interleague opponent won 76.2 games last year, the Brewers won 93.6. That is about a 2 game head start for the Cardinals.

[jjkoestler]

That is certainly true. The Cardinals average interleague opponent won 76.2 games last year, the Brewers won 93.6. That is about a 2 game head start for the Cardinals.

 

 

I knew it was bad, but I didn't know it was that bad.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Just curious- when do the projection systems redo their numbers to account for the Wainright injury and other season altering events? At the end of Spring Training? No one hasn't come up with a new projection on the NL Central yet, have they?

[TooLiveBrew]

I noticed something on ESPN's bottom line a day or two or three ago that the Cards' expected win total dropped something like 3 wins. Sorry, but I can't remember 100%, or find a link to back it up. But it was about 3 wins iirc.

[Invader3K]

I noticed something on ESPN's bottom line a day or two or three ago that the Cards' expected win total dropped something like 3 wins. Sorry, but I can't remember 100%, or find a link to back it up. But it was about 3 wins iirc.

That seems like a conservative estimate, since he'll be gone the entire season and the Cards don't look to be adding another high impact starter before Opening Day.

[logan82]

3 wins sounds about right. Most projections are conservative overall so they probably only had him at 4-5 wins to begin with.

[TooLiveBrew]

In a Dave Cameron article on Waiwright's injury & its financial impact at FanGraphs, he notes that ESPN Insider's Dan Szymborski (of Baseball Think Factory) dropped the Cards from 87 to 83 wins in the ZIPS projections.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Thanks for the link TLB! That does technically put the Brewers and Reds in the driver's seat unless every Brewer position player pulls an oblique, breaks a pinky, or worse.