2011 Brewers Breakout and Disappointing Players of the Year

[Jofis11ep]

I just got to thinking of who I think is poised to have a breakout year and who is poised to come back to reality and not live up to expectations or have more reasonable stats. Last year we had the likes of Corey Hart who had a career year as a breakout player. For disappointing years, the list could be too long, but players such as Randy Wolf, the entire bottom third of our rotation, Carlos Gomez, etc come to mind for me.

 

My picks for 2011:

 

Breakout: Yovanni Gallardo - while all of the attention has been put on the additions of Greinke and Marcum, I think Gallardo is poised to have a breakout year. For the first time (he was injured for most of 2008) he has been a full-time starter he doesn't have to be "the man" in the rotation. While I think he is capable of being the ace, it is important to have a supporting cast in the pitching staff. Last year it seemed as though he thought he had to go out there and pitch his absolute best game every time because the rest of the rotation is in shambles. I am excited to see hat Yo can do with an actual MLB pitching staff and without all of the pressure.

 

Disappointing: Corey Hart - while everyone obviously wants each player to be clicking on all cylinders, it is unrealistic to expect that to happen. I just don't see how Corey Hart lives up to what he did last year. He was not even on our opening day roster last year. While I do not expect him to regress to his awful self of Spring Training '10, I think he will regress a little bit.

 

Thoughts?

[RobDeer 45]

Disappoingting - I'm really worried it could be Ax. I really hope not because I love seeing him work but I'm hessitant to get on board with him fully as the answer for the whole year. I think I'm gun shy from Turnbow!

 

Breakout - I have to go with Yo as well. I think he will have a great year and take another step forward. I'm hoping all the starters will push each other and make them all better as individuals.

[hawing]

I just don't see how Corey Hart lives up to what he did last year. He was not even on our opening day roster last year.

To be fair, Corey was only excluded from the opening day starting lineup in 2010. He was on the roster. Sorry - carry on.

[Warning Track Power]

Breakout - Carlos Gomez

 

I know, I know but my expectations are rather muted. I don't think he's going to set the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination but I do think he will be better than what he has shown in the past. I think he posts a .265 avg, .315 obp, 35 steals 2011. I think most of us do backflips if he has this season.

 

Disappointing - Casey McGehee AND Corey Hart

 

Just like Gomez, I don't expect massive dropoffs from McGehee and Hart but I do see a little regression. McGehee has been fantastic but maybe playing over his head a little in terms of HR and RBI. I expect him to be around .275, 17 HR and 80 RBI. Nothing drastic, but just a small dropoff. Similar with Hart. Last year was amazing but I doubt his power #s stay that high. I expect something along the lines of .270, 25 HR and 90 RBI.

 

Obviously these aren't drastic either way for breakout/disappointing. These are more about playing to what I believe will be career norms. If we can get this production out of McGehee, Hart and Gomez while Braun, Weeks and Fielder do what they are capable of, this team will have a great season.

[Jofis11ep]

I just don't see how Corey Hart lives up to what he did last year. He was not even on our opening day roster last year.

To be fair, Corey was only excluded from the opening day starting lineup in 2010. He was on the roster. Sorry - carry on.

Thanks hawing, good catch!... typing error on my part. I just think someone that was hitting that bad to be left off the opening day starting lineup has at least a question mark. While I don't think he'll fall off the face of the earth, I think he'll regress a little bit.

[bylo tesi me]

Not Disappointing, But I worry that Prince will put up similar numbers to last year. Which would obviously be solid numbers, but I think if he's not getting pitches to hit this year, Prince will press and swing at more bad pitches rather than taking his walks. Don't get me wrong, I hope he has the Big contract year season the Brewers are counting on, but I think it is just as likely he wont and his frustration could become a minor distraction.

 

As for Breakout, I'm looking for Jonathan Lucroy to improve a little both at the Plate and defensively. Now that he's had a little taste of MLB experience, hopefully he can get on base and provide a little stability at the bottom of the order.

[DHonks]

I think most disappointing is Fielder.

 

I think breakout are Braun and Weeks, who finally have the monster years they've shown glimpses of.

 

I think McGehee and Hart will be solid as always. I can't call Gomez a disappointment, because my expectations are so low.

[prophet]

For disappointing I'm going with McGehee. I agree with warning track, when he says that Casey was playing out of his mind last year. I think he'll be solid/average, but I don't have confidence that he'll put up the same numbers as he did in 2010.

 

For breakout, I'm going with Marcum. I think that getting out of that division and moving to the national league is going to be huge for him. My prediction is that out of our three number 1/2 starters, Marcum finishes highest in Cy Young voting barring injuries.

[brewtank34]

Offensive Breakout: a combination of Lucroy and Gomez.

Gomez is (I hope) going to heed the advise of Sveum and gets rid of his power swing to become more of a OBP guy. Lucroy is going to be able to focus more on his hitting once he gets used to Greinke and Marcum. This shouldn't take too long in Spring Training due to both P's being as good as they are. Rookie jitters are gone and Lucroy is going to suprise a lot of people at the bottom of our line-up.

Defensive Breakout: Casey McGehee

I've read that he's been able to really work out this offseason and has trimmed a lot of weight, and is in excellent shape. This is going to allow him to snag more balls over at Third.

 

Offensive Dissapointment: Betancourt

I agree with the rest that there's a large possibilty that Hart and McGehee may not meet the stats they put up last year, but they'll still be solid enough not to be considered a dissapointment. For this reason, I've chosen Betancourt. His RBI's will be high again due to the type of line-up he has in front of him, but his OBP will low again and he'll have a lot of "Oh great, it's Betancourt" moments. I hope he proves us all wrong!

 

Defensive Dissapointment: Can I use Betancourt again?

I really see improvements from Braun, McGehee, Prince and Weeks in the field. Lucroy and Hart are not stellar, but they're consistent and solid. Gomez is Gomez. That leaves Betancourt. Once again, I hope he proves us wrong, but from what I've seen and read, he could be liability.

[RockCoCougars]

Breakout: Just a gut feeling, but something tells me that Saito will be closing by the end of the year, a la Torres in 2008.

 

Disappointment: Gallardo pitched pretty poorly the second half of last season. I have a feeling that carries over a bit this year.

[logan82]

I pick Marcum as the disappointment. Expectations are high since he moved leagues but I can see him taking a big step back.

 

Lucroy will be the breakout player. Basically we don't have any players who haven't already had a really good year besides Lucroy, Betancourt, and Gomez. Betancourt is what he is. Gomez has had plenty of at bats to show something and I guess he has. Of course that something has been poor plate discipline.

[PrinceEatMeat]

My breakout picks are GALLARDO and GOMEZ. I can't say that I have much faith left in Gomez, but I think that if he's ever going to turn around it will be this year under Roenicke. If Sveum can finally reel in Gomez and teach him to get on base, which I think Roenicke will stress or he'll see little playing time, then I think he could have a huge year. Roenicke likes to run, and Gomez could steal a ton of bases if he can get on base at a better clip. As far Gallardo goes, I think it will benefit him a lot to have Greinke and Marcum with him in the rotation. It will take a lot of pressure off of him to always be the stopper. With better support from the rest of the rotation, he can relax and just pitch. I think he'll step it up and have a huge year. I think he could very well be the best pitcher on our staff this year.

 

My disappointment picks are AXFORD and HART. I hate to pick Axford, but I can't help but think of the trend we've had in the past with breakout closers. They all seem to be one and done. I hope this isn't the case with Axford, but it's obviously a possibility. I think we signed Saito to protect against this happening. However, out of all the closers we've had recently, I think Axford has the best chance of succeeding. Hart is the obvious pick here. I'm not saying he'll have a terrible year, but I really don't think he'll come close to the numbers he put up last year. I don't think he can consistently be that player, but I do think he can be solid. Either way though, unless he puts up similar numbers to last year, he'll be seen as a disappointment. So, I think he'll fall a little short.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'll echo a few of the previous posters:

 

Breakout - Carlos Gomez. I think the threat from Cain and his brief demotion resonated with Carlos to try and be a better player. He was rushed to the majors before he was ready, but still seems like a hard worker with a ton of talent. A little plate discipline would go a long way...I think he does it this year and is a very solid player. At a minimum, he will be a solid glove in center. My bold prediction...I could see him leading off before year end, allowing them to move Rickie to #2.

 

Breakdown - Betancourt - Not a bold call here since expectations are so low, but he is bad and beyond repair. I also worry that Counsell breaks down from playing too much after they realize this. I'm sure we'll see a couple injuries to the pitching this year which will be a challenge to overcome with a lack of depth.

[sbrylski]

Breakout - Chris Dickerson

By mid-season, he will be our everyday leadoff hitter.

 

Breakdown - Corey Hart

His OBP in good years borders weak, and if he slips at all, it will be ugly.

[Invader3K]

Breakout: Shaun Marcum. As much hype as Greinke has gotten, I feel like Marcum has flown under the radar a bit. I think he is going to come in eager to prove himself as an elite pitcher, and is going to have a stellar season. To a lesser extent I think Lucroy will have a very nice season.

 

Disappointment: Chris Narveson. I hope this isn't the case, but I think he will falter early and be out of the rotation by the All-Star break.

[no19no1]

Breakout - Lucroy, I just think he's going to be a stud behind the plate for a long time.

 

Disappointment - Marcum and Greinke, MiillerPark is a pitcher killer, imo

[strawbossisevil]

Break Out - Mark Rogers - He will come up mid season and will finish the year with an ERA in the high 3s as a starter giving the Brewers' pitching staff one of the deepest rotations 1-5 in baseball.

 

Disappointment - Bentancourt. He'll be a black hole in an otherwise strong lineup.

[Ennder]

Break out - Fielder, Narveson. I think Fielder has another 50 HR type year. Narveson will gain more consistency and be another Randy Wolf.

 

Disappointment - Betancourt. He will be the worst regular player in baseball and will be the reason we miss the playoffs by a game or two. Not sure I can call it a disappointment since he has basically been the worst player in baseball over the past 3 seasons.

[joepepsi]

I think you have to be a little worried about Axford. High K rate his entire career, but pretty high walk rate too, especially for a short reliever. He could start the year with serious command issues in high pressure situations. That's a recipe for losing confidence and struggling even more.

 

Greinke will be the most valuable player on the team. Lincecum circa 2009 good. I think Rickie will be the best offensive player.

[Baldkin]

Breakout: Dickerson, Weeks. I think Dickerson is the everyday CF by June, and Weeks has an MVP type season.

 

Disappointment: Gomez, Braun.

[owbc]

Breakout: Fielder--he's going to have a monster season and the biggest statistical improvement of anyone on the offense. Weeks will be close behind...and this offense has Braun also? Wow.

 

Disappointment: Greinke--expecting a solid season with an ERA of around 3.50, but not the CC Sabathia impact that some might be expecting.

 

My 2010 pick, McGehee, will have another solid season as well.

[bigredrobbo]

Having predicted Hart for a big year last year, my chances of back to back predictions are not high! That said, I firmly believe this year will be the year that Carlos Gomez gets it, gets his role and focuses on being the exciting guy I believe he can be. I'm sure someone on the coaching staff will have said, "look, we lost Escobar, so we need you to be the speed guy. We have HR hitters so stop swinging for the fences".

 

As for disappointments, the easy target is Betancourt, but my bar for him is set low enough that to disappoint, he'd basically have to hit lower than...well, me! I'm afraid I have a hunch that this will be a big down year for Randy Wolf. I hope I'm wrong - I want everyone to have career years!

[TooLiveBrew]

Breakout: Chris Dickerson

 

Disappointment: Takashi Saito

 

 

I don't think there are really that many unknowns on this team, so kinda hard for me to pick the breakout guy. Jon Lucroy is my other guess for breakout candidate, if that's allowed. I think he's going to turn what were strikeouts in 2010 into walks & balls in play/hits. I liked his pitch recognition, and he seemed to be able to stay alive at the plate... now time for the discipline to come around. Although I'm not sure if an AVG/OBP split of something like .275/.330 qualifies as breakout or not.

 

I think Dickerson has a shot at being a solid leadoff option against righties. At least I'd really like him to be.

 

Tough for me to pick the disappointment guy, too. I just worry Saito's health won't hold up.

[dlk9s]

Is it just me, or does dedicating a thread (partially) to who will be disappointments before the season even starts seem unnecessarily pessimistic?

[JohnBriggs12]

Breakout: Narveson and Betancourt

 

Disappointments: Weeks and Gallardo

 

Narveson builds on his 2010 as a "poor man's" Cliff Lee, wins 15 games and gets a 3 year deal. Based on what some fans say about Betancourt, he can only surprise on the upside. He hits .275, 18 HR, and knocks in 80 and makes under 20 errors.

 

For all his positives in 2010, Weeks still had periods where he was lost. With FA possibly looming, it works on his head. Gallardo disappoints in that he continues to run up his pitch counts and as a result, his record ends up 13-11, with an ERA around 4.