Brewers sign Mark Kotsay; Latest -- RHP Roque Mercedes clears waivers, remains Milwaukee property

[logan82]

The guys relegated to pinch hitting roles are pretty much all going to be end of the line guys who aren't good enough to play everyday so there just isn't going to be some .300/.350/.400 guy over his last 1000 AB's willing to take that role, they end up playing everyday or in the AL where then can DH.

 

I don't expect much from a bench guy but we already had 2-3 guys who could reasonably match that production and play defense. He is redundant at best with a good chance he is a step back. Add in that he is getting paid more than Punto got from the Cardinals and Punto would have actually been an upgrade to our roster and this move just sickens me.

[mothershipconnection]

If Kotsay hit .315 in a 100 AB's as a pinch hitter it is more useful to know it

 

I think the only real use would be lining up PH numbers vs. regular numbers (while maybe dividing his career into 3 year bins to adjust for age and adjusting for % of AB's against same-handed pitchers, and some other variables) and seeing how similar they are. It's only descriptive, but does allow you to say that in a limited sample, he did not poop the bed when coming off the bench.

 

Conclusions drawn from small samples are not very predictive, however, in that an 0-10 streak can dramatically sway numbers. Also, he has a career BABIP of .362 as a PH,, which is bound to regress toward his overall numbers.

 

because unlike computer models, players are not robots and are affected by things like only pinch hitting or playing 1x a week

 

This is valid, but we don't have enough evidence that he's not going to be a guy who is affected by this and just got lucky in limited AB's thus far. You'd need a pretty large number of AB's to be able to point to a guy and say he's not affected by PH-ing. In 79 PA as PH last year, Craig Counsell was .105OPS better as a sub than as a starter, but over 421 career PA as PH, he's .059OPS worse than his career numbers as a starter.

[Funketown]

Agreed, somewhat, in that recent record is most relevant but also that some guys do better or worse in a role as a pinch hitter. Kotsay appears not to be bothered by the role. I'll take that 100 AB sample over a guy who has a marginally better 3 year track record while playing everyday but has a horrible stat line in 100 pinch hitting shots because all you are going to get is a small sample for pinch hitting... gotta work with what is available. It is useful information because unlike computer models, players are not robots and are affected by things like only pinch hitting or playing 1x a week. The guys relegated to pinch hitting roles are pretty much all going to be end of the line guys who aren't good enough to play everyday so there just isn't going to be some .300/.350/.400 guy over his last 1000 AB's willing to take that role, they end up playing everyday or in the AL where then can DH.

Joe Inglett career: 871 PA, .286/.345/.397/.742.

 

Kotsay has a career line of .279/.335/.411/.746. He has fallen off a cliff big time in the last five years.

 

In the past four years, Kotsay is 6/37 with an OPS under .450. Did he all of a sudden forget how to pinch hit? Probably not. There are huge amounts of variation in samples this small, and quite frankly it's usually better to ignore this type of information than to use it to reach a flawed conclusion.

 

I don't doubt for one second that it's quite a bit different to come off the bench and take an at-bat than to take an at-bat after playing the field for the past five innings and getting a couple AB's. I'm sure there are guys who struggle with pinch-hitting. However, I'm also willing to bet that overall past performance is a much stronger determinant of pinch-hitting performance than past pinch-hitting performance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MJLiverock]

I am not really disagreeing, only saying that in evaluating PH'ers the sample size is always going to be small. Everything doesn't have to be used to create a prediction but a GM has to use the information available.

 

Past performance is a great determiner but most guys who are pinch hitters don't even have a meaningful sample, like the Joe Inglett reference, 871 AB's spread over how many years? Or a grizzled veteran who is a shadow of the player who put up 90% of the career numbers? How is that any more relevant than at least looking at the guy's history of PH'ing and seeing if he totally sucks at it or not? I wouldn't extrapolate it to mean those numbers will be a full season's worth but it gives some indication of adjusting to the role.

[endaround]

Take a look at the all minor league contract team. http://www.fangraphs.com/...or-league-contract-team/

 

Kotsay's Marcel wOBA is .304

[PrinceEatMeat]

FYI. If you are on the fence or against this signing, you may want to Google 'Kotsay wife'. If nothing else, I would guarantee that the annual Brewers wives' auction or whatever will see a little bump in revenue due to this signing.

If we're just going by wife I'd rather have signed Podsednik. And as long as we're on the subject, we need to find some way to trade for Ricky Romero. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Wow, you weren't kidding. I think we made the wrong move. Lol.

[sbrylski]

I am not really disagreeing, only saying that in evaluating PH'ers the sample size is always going to be small. Everything doesn't have to be used to create a prediction but a GM has to use the information available.

 

Sorry, but that's bunk. Just because X is the only piece of evidence, does not mean it's good evidence.

[Funketown]

Past performance is a great determiner but most guys who are pinch hitters don't even have a meaningful sample, like the Joe Inglett reference, 871 AB's spread over how many years? Or a grizzled veteran who is a shadow of the player who put up 90% of the career numbers? How is that any more relevant than at least looking at the guy's history of PH'ing and seeing if he totally sucks at it or not?

Kotsay has put up about 1,000 PA's over the past three years is way more relevant than 100 PA's over 13 years. I'm pretty comfortable making a rough statement about the quality of a batter based on that information (along with age, possible nagging injuries, etc). Based on those 1,000 PA's, Kotsay looks to be a .250/.325/.375/.700 guy now.

 

Inglett has put up those 871 PA's over 4 years.

 

Both of those are more valuable than Kotsay's career PH'ing numbers.

[pitchleague]

Just don't let Kotsay hit against LHP (0-for-25 last year and terrible over the last four seasons).

I've steered clear of this thread except for checking it out once a day to read the updated posts. It kind of surprised me that nobody has jumped on this "small sample" as well. Based on all the arguing that he hit .315 in his career as a PH and members were at each other's throats, it seemed, about how the size of the sample makes it meaningless.

 

So doesn't an 0-for-25 small sample also get people fired up that it has nothing to do with anything?

 

BTW, I'm totally a small sample size follower, but I'm only posting this as I thought it was so interesting that nobody made comment about this sample size in reverse. Carry on.

[sbrylski]

Oh, I mainly just threw out the 0-for-25 as anecdotal evidence. I added "terrible over the last four seasons" so show I'm obviously looking at a slightly larger sample than that.

 

In the last four years against LHP, a sample of 227 at-bats, he's hit just .194 with 12 walks. Still not the largest sample, but, well, there it is.

[logan82]

Generally speaking we shouldn't be putting guys out to pinch hit with a platoon disadvantage.

[monty57]

Generally speaking we shouldn't be putting guys out to pinch hit with a platoon disadvantage.

Especially since a likely person to lose his roster spot due to this move is Boggs, who is our only RH hitting bench player.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Maybe we should just start a thread titled "Branyan signs with _____; MiLB deal with ST invite" now, so we can get some complaining out of the way. We could just edit in the team that eventually signs him once it happens.

 

At least, I think that should be in blue.

[MNBrew]

I don't expect much from a bench guy but we already had 2-3 guys who could reasonably match that production and play defense. He is redundant at best with a good chance he is a step back. Add in that he is getting paid more than Punto got from the Cardinals and Punto would have actually been an upgrade to our roster and this move just sickens me.

A defensive whiz, Punto only had 2 good offensive years in MN, hitting .280-.290 in '06

& '08 WITH OBP'S IN THE .350 RANGE. Punto was Gomez-level bad or worse offensively in '07 (BA & OBP) &

nearly so again in both '09 & '10 (JUST AS LOUSY BA, SOMEWHAT BETTER OBP).

 

Punto wasn't coming to Milwaukee because he wouldn't have signed here to be the 6th infielder. Counsell was already signed to be the 5th IF. The Brewers don't need another weak-hitting middle IF.

 

Punto would've taken the spot likely to be filled by Cruz or Gamel, not Boggs or Dickerson. Prince's track record for playing time & durability strongly suggests that, barring a Prince injury, the vast majority of Kotsay's defensive time will be in the OF. Positionally speaking, comparing Punto & Kotsay is questionable at best and clearly not apples to apples.

 

(Edits in CAPS to indicate I'm not only looking at BA.)

[logan82]

Batting average man. He would still have been an upgrade over Betancourt.

[MNBrew]

Turns out, in light of #1 above, the .315 PH BA figure isn't a small sample size, at least per se, because it spans Kotsay's whole 14-year career.

 

 

14 years but only 99 PA's. Small sample size. The fact that those 99 pa's cover 14 years may make them even LESS relevant that if they had all happened recently. You can wish all you want that people wouldn't bring sample size up; but its the #1 problem with your position. It isn't "deep stats" thinking, its simple math.

I stand corrected & that's fine. I never should've brought the sample size point up because it simply wasn't apropos in this case.

 

It's at least a fair assumption that he'll get more PH opportunities this year since he'll be in the NL signed to be a veteran bat off the bench, whereas for most of the past 7-8 years he's played in the AL.

 

He may not do much. But hopefully he does & therefore is successful in the role they ask him to play. It'd be a bit harder to complain if that were so.

[MNBrew]

Batting average man. He would still have been an upgrade over Betancourt.

Defensively, yes, hands down. Offensively, yes & no. OBP? Clearly yes. BA, SLG, & OPS? No, it's not exactly close by those criteria.

 

What it seems you're getting at is that you'd've preferred Punto over YB, whatever the rationale. Having watched tons of Punto over his Twins years, I'd wholeheartedly agree. He just wouldn't have signed here to be the 6th IF unless that was the best possible offer he could've gotten.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think there could certainly be something to the angle that vets make better bench players (guys not thinking they deserve to start, etc.). However, what I think the complaints boil down to on this deal are that there are other vets that are better options at the plate, in the field, and in terms of contract. What made Kotsay stand out above all others just escapes me. I'm betting it actually did have something to do with his career PH batting average/past PH success, but my conspiracy-theory side says it also has to do with Roenicke seeing plenty of Kotsay in the prime of his career as a divisional opponent.

[matt sveum]

Just to tag on. It really makes no sense. Why even bother with Boggs and Reed with the Kotsay move. Milledge would have been great, or anyone younger with upside.

[Mass Haas]

Money is still on Roque Mercedes, who already slipped past half the teams in baseball to the Brewers this offseason, and whose rights the Brewers would still control if he passed through waivers.

 

Good call, Mass! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Mercedes has cleared waivers and is safely back in the Brewers system. He'll be eligible for minor league free agency after 2011 unless he is re-added to the 40-man roster.

[TooLiveBrew]

FanGraphs' Tommy Rancel compares the Kotsay deal to the Edmonds deal. An excerpt:

 

Edmonds missed all of 2009, but made a surprise return to the big leagues last year playing for the Brewers and later the Cincinnati Reds. In 272 plate appearances, the 40-year-old hit .277/.342/.507. He joined Matt Joyce as the only players in the majors with at least 10 home runs and 15 doubles despite logging less than 275 plate appearances. As a defender, he did an admirable job in the field earning positive marks in a limited role. In total, he was worth nearly 3 WAR. Not bad for a non-roster invitee.

 

Naturally, Edmonds received a minor-league deal from St. Louis while Kotsay is guaranteed major league money. What?

 

Outside of being five-years younger, Kotsay holds no considerable advantage over Edmonds. Edmonds is a superior offensive player, and despite the age gap, is likely still the better defender. Even if you expect regression from Edmonds offensively, he almost certainly will continue to produce at a level (or two) above where Kotsay is right now. Of course health and age are factors, but we’re not asking either to play 162 games.

...

 

In fairness to the Brewers, they do get a hat tip for turning Edmonds into Chris Dickerson late last season. And even if Kotsay falls completely on his face, the maximum price tag of just over a million dollars does not cripple the franchise. The point is, if they wanted bring in a player to fill Jim Edmonds’ role, then why not just try and re-sign Jim Edmonds?

[MJLiverock]

Because Edmonds wanted to play for St. Louis?

[trwi7]

It didn't even have to be Edmonds. Guarantee Gabe Gross a major league deal and he's a better option than Kotsay.

[Warning Track Power]

Or guarantee Russell Branyan a major league deal...especially if the idea was to have a power hitting, left handed PH who could spell Prince at 1B. I don't see the "thunder" in Kotsay's bat. Kotsay's bat is more similar to Craig Counsell than Branyan or Hinske.

[PrinceEatMeat]

They should've brought back 3TO instead. He's a god here. If they want power off the bench, it's 3TO all the way.