Brewers sign Mark Kotsay; Latest -- RHP Roque Mercedes clears waivers, remains Milwaukee property

[Warning Track Power]

The White Sox agreed to sign Lastings Milledge to a minor league deal, the team announced. Milledge will earn $500K in the majors and his deal doesn't include incentives

...And the Kotsay signing looks worse and worse

 

[MNBrew]

How is this a low risk move? The Brewers could lose another player in order to bring in a washed up vet who isn't better than anyone on the roster and who can't play the field.

Really, who would the Brewers be likely to lose? Kottaras or Nieves, possibly, but not 'til later, so it won't be one of them. Mercedes? Not likely he'd be claimed elsewhere. Maldonado? Ditto Mercedes comment. Boggs or Dickerson? Any team already could've had either of those guys but chose not to, so it's not exactly like the depth guys we already have are highly coveted.

 

Other points:

 

- Realistically, at most we'd stand to lose one guy depth-wise, and not necessarily even anyone who is much-coveted elsewhere or who would be making a major difference at the major league level.

- I'm not sold that Kotsay's going to be any good. But I just can't see this as terrible.

- You need some decent experience in your depth, and all the Brewers really had before this move was Counsell -- Yikes!!!

- I think I'm right that Kotsay hit like .315 or so last year as a PH. Maybe he doesn't have good career numbers, but you can't realistically assert that he's completely inept at pinch hitting (and please don't start the whole small sample rant again -- I get it).

- With one-year deals, you can release a guy before the season starts and pay him only 1/6 of his salary. So if Kotsay's truly bad and his attempt to make the roster goes about like Trot Nixon's, it's not like releasing him would throw the Brewers' whole payroll situation down the tubes.

 

Sure, there are other guys I'd rather have seen get signed. But I'm just going to take the wait-and-see approach here.

 

(On a related note, you'd have to wonder if Hinske might've been a little more eager to accept the Brewers' comparable offer were Marcum & Greinke already Brewers at the time Hinske was making his decision. Had we gotten Hinske, surely none of this Kotsay stuff would've become a reality.)

[logan82]

I think I'm right that Kotsay hit like .315 or so last year as a PH.

 

Awesome. Random stats.

 

please don't start the whole small sample rant again -- I get it

 

If you get it why do you bring up stats that are a small sample?

[thumperden]

If Kotsay gets maybe 150 at bats and puts up 2009 Chicago White Sox numbers, I'd be okay with the signing. If it's 2010 White Sox numbers...I'll be very angry about it.

As many others have mentioned, there just are plenty of better options out there. He's not ancient (35), but I'm scratching my head over this signing. Perhaps Mr. Melvin thought he needed another veteran leader on the bench to balance the youth. I can see that point too, but I'm not sold on his recent production at all. To me, that doesn't justify him as the solution in that scenario.

[MNBrew]

I think I'm right that Kotsay hit like .315 or so last year as a PH.

 

Awesome. Random stats.

 

please don't start the whole small sample rant again -- I get it

 

If you get it why do you bring up stats that are a small sample?

A patronizing response wasn't necessary, but anyway...

 

1. That wasn't random. I misspoke, but I wasn't making that number up: .315 wasn't Kotsay's PH BA in 2010 -- it's his career PH BA, per TH's blog.

 

2. To be clearer, I should've phrased that, "I get the logic behind small sample sizes." Assuming I'd get lectured again for the 2nd time in this thread about small sample sizes since I thought I remembered that the .315 was a 1-year figure, not a career figure, I was simply trying to stave that off. Turns out, in light of #1 above, the .315 PH BA figure isn't a small sample size, at least per se, because it spans Kotsay's whole 14-year career.

 

2a. To answer your 2nd question, regarding small sample size, "statistically siginificant" & "relevant" aren't mutually exclusive -- that's why.

 

Not everyone here's a "deep stats" person. I'm certainly not. So not everyone deals w/ the same information or values all perspectives the same way, but it doesn't make anyone's viewpoint inherently or automatically wrong. . . . For 30 years I've intensely & attentively following the Brewers. I followed Lavell Freeman's .400 year at El Paso avidly through the minor league team stats pages in The Sporting News in the mid-'80s. I remember why it was a potentially good thing to know who Tim Pyznarski was and why it was fairly unique for Tom Tellmann to have the success he did as a rather "old" rookie in 1983. I subscribed to "What's Brewing?" in high school when most kids didn't consider it cool to pay that much attention to the Brewers. I listened to my radio as the Brewers got down by a huge margin to either Cleveland or Detroit early (8-0 after the 1st inning?), then clawed back and eventually won it on a grand slam (Ted Simmons, I think) -- the very first time I remember hearing Uecker's "Get up. Get up. Get outta here. Gone!" home run call, which became his signature in the weeks, months, & years that followed. I wish Sid Roberson & Chris Saenz had stayed healthy and I still think the Brewers should have always hung onto Mark Loretta & Jeff Cirillo. You get the idea.... And I still listen to the Brewers games on the sometimes-coming-in-poorly River Falls radio station every chance I get.

 

There's room here for all perspectives & degrees of knowledge & interest.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not up in arms about this like many seem to be, but I do question the motivation behind Melvin giving major league contracts like party favors to guys who should be getting a minor league deal and a NRI. First Nieves and Boggs, and now Kotsay. Seriously, is the competition to sign players of this caliber that heated?

[MNBrew]

I'm not up in arms about this like many seem to be, but I do question the motivation behind Melvin giving major league contracts like party favors to guys who should be getting a minor league deal and a NRI. First Nieves and Boggs, and now Kotsay. Seriously, is the competition to sign players of this caliber that heated?

I've wondered the same thing. There's minimal risk in most of these signings, but there do seem to be other more appealing options available, and at non-budget-busting price levels.

[greeg35]

Turns out, in light of #1 above, the .315 PH BA figure isn't a small sample size, at least per se, because it spans Kotsay's whole 14-year career.

 

 

14 years but only 99 PA's. Small sample size. The fact that those 99 pa's cover 14 years may make them even LESS relevant that if they had all happened recently. You can wish all you want that people wouldn't bring sample size up; but its the #1 problem with your position. It isn't "deep stats" thinking, its simple math.

[bork]

I saw a report that the deal is worth $800,000 with $450,000 in performance and roster bonuses.

 

Link

[Ennder]

99 PA's spread out over 14 years isn't a small sample, it is a completely useless sample not even worth bringing up. It holds as much meaning as what Kotsay eats for breakfast in the morning.

[Invader3K]

I would assume veteran players are usually better pinch hitters, but they probably get more opportunities as well.

[crewcrazy]

99 PA's spread out over 14 years isn't a small sample, it is a completely useless sample not even worth bringing up. It holds as much meaning as what Kotsay eats for breakfast in the morning.

Exactly. Even more meaningless when he's been 4-for-12 and 2-for-15 as a PHer the past two years to bring that average down to .315. It's damn near impossible to prove that pinch hitting is a repeatable skill as opposed to being blessed with a good BABIP.

[And That]

Kotsay signing is official, recent waiver claim Roque Mercedes DFA'd to make room, per McCalvy.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The biggest problem I still have with this signing is that it's a major league deal. If it was a minor league deal, then there's no worry. If he sucks, he's gone. But now, I think he's guaranteed a roster spot, which I don't agree with. What if he comes into Spring Training and is absolutely horrible, and is outplayed by Gamel, Boggs, Dickerson, and whoever else. Then what happens? I would guess he still gets a roster spot.

[Funketown]

99 PA's spread out over 14 years isn't a small sample, it is a completely useless sample not even worth bringing up. It holds as much meaning as what Kotsay eats for breakfast in the morning.

I'd actually be willing to be Kotsay's breakfast decision gives us more valuable information than these 99 PA's. Oatmeal, grits, baconator,...

[RockCoCougars]

FYI. If you are on the fence or against this signing, you may want to Google 'Kotsay wife'. If nothing else, I would guarantee that the annual Brewers wives' auction or whatever will see a little bump in revenue due to this signing.

[joepepsi]

Ugh. He was a pretty good player until he turned 30. He's been bad since. I guess this means Gamel definitely starts the season in AAA. He does have a pretty low K rate, and his obp is average-ish career wise.

[craigharmann]

Eh, I'm not excited, but I'm not saddened by the move. I mean, the likelihood of Mercedes making the MLB roster was pretty low. It probably would have been better for a minor league deal, but after getting Marcum and Greinke this winter, DM gets a wait and see on this one in my eyes.

[PrinceEatMeat]

FYI. If you are on the fence or against this signing, you may want to Google 'Kotsay wife'. If nothing else, I would guarantee that the annual Brewers wives' auction or whatever will see a little bump in revenue due to this signing.

Greinke's wife is hotter, so she would've gotten us all by. We could've done without Kotsay's wife.

[sbrylski]

I finally got around to look at his stat line, and frankly I was expecting it to be worse given the reaction.

 

Don't get me wrong, I still think it's a bad signing. Kotsay is basically Craig Counsell without the defense, and looks to possibly get some time at first base instead of shortstop. You could find a better first base backup with your eyes closed.

 

But he's not non-existent. Counsell himself was actually worse at ages 32-33 than Kotsay, and he recovered enough to still be playing. Just don't let Kotsay hit against LHP (0-for-25 last year and terrible over the last four seasons).

 

It is not out of the question for Kotsay to put up a .275 / .330 / .400 / .730 batting line. We have had worse bench bats than that in the last few years.

 

Again, bad signing, but I'm not actually jumping off a bridge over this one.

 

EDIT: This indicates to me that Gamel might not be trusted to even play first base at this point, if the selling point on Kotsay is that he can handle that position as a backup. I hope they move Gamel to the outfield in Triple-A right away, because I'm starting to think the infield ship has sailed.

[trwi7]

FYI. If you are on the fence or against this signing, you may want to Google 'Kotsay wife'. If nothing else, I would guarantee that the annual Brewers wives' auction or whatever will see a little bump in revenue due to this signing.

If we're just going by wife I'd rather have signed Podsednik. And as long as we're on the subject, we need to find some way to trade for Ricky Romero. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

 

[logan82]

sbrylski06 wrote:

This indicates to me that Gamel might not be trusted to even play first base at this point, if the selling point on Kotsay is that he can handle that position as a backup. I hope they move Gamel to the outfield in Triple-A right away, because I'm starting to think the infield ship has sailed.

Either that or they want Gamel to spend most of the year working at 1B in AAA.

[MJLiverock]

FWIW as a pinch hitter very few if anyone is going to have a statistically "significant" number of plate appearances in that role to satisfy some people. Players either pinch hit at the beginning or end of their career and you just don't find a guy who sticks around for 15 years getting 100PA's/year in the pinch hitting role.

 

Guys who are really good hitters don't just stay in the pinch hitting role and guys who have good careers are usually old and no where near the player that put up good career numbers by the time they end up as a pinch hitter.

 

If Kotsay hit .315 in a 100 AB's as a pinch hitter it is more useful to know it than get all huffy because it doesn't cover a 1000 AB's. Maybe management is right to go with a guy with ML experience and a successful record in a 100 pinch hitting opportunities than trusting marginal talent and experience like the Brad Nelson attempt of a few years ago.

[logan82]

MJLiverock wrote:

If Kotsay hit .315 in a 100 AB's as a pinch hitter it is more useful to know it than get all huffy because it doesn't cover a 1000 AB's. Maybe management is right to go with a guy with ML experience and a successful record in a 100 pinch hitting opportunities than trusting marginal talent and experience like the Brad Nelson attempt of a few years ago.

No, it is practically useless to know how he hit as a pinch hitter. What a player did 10 years ago is irrelevant. What a hitter did 5+ years ago has little relevance to what he will do. We know what he did as a hitter over the last 3 years. We can use that as a close approximation of what to expect with a little ding for pinch hitting and age.

[MJLiverock]

Agreed, somewhat, in that recent record is most relevant but also that some guys do better or worse in a role as a pinch hitter. Kotsay appears not to be bothered by the role. I'll take that 100 AB sample over a guy who has a marginally better 3 year track record while playing everyday but has a horrible stat line in 100 pinch hitting shots because all you are going to get is a small sample for pinch hitting... gotta work with what is available. It is useful information because unlike computer models, players are not robots and are affected by things like only pinch hitting or playing 1x a week. The guys relegated to pinch hitting roles are pretty much all going to be end of the line guys who aren't good enough to play everyday so there just isn't going to be some .300/.350/.400 guy over his last 1000 AB's willing to take that role, they end up playing everyday or in the AL where then can DH.