Garza traded to the Cubs; Archer, Guyer, Chirinos, Lee, Fuld to Tampa

[monkeyman343434]

Hopefully this helps the Cubs achieve the 16th best record in the majors this year, so when they sign Prince in the offseason, the Brewers end up with the 16th pick!

[reillymcshane]

Hopefully this helps the Cubs achieve the 16th best record in the majors this year, so when they sign Prince in the offseason, the Brewers end up with the 16th pick!

Monkeyman, I think the Cubbies will chase Prince huge time after this year. Pena will be a FA, and they don't have left handed power, so it's a perfect fit. Not to mention it would be sticking it to the Brewers.

 

I also see Baltimore going after him. I think this is the best fit. Prince would crush as Camden Yards, and the O's have some young pitching that will be ready. And the O's seem willing to spend for the right guy - like when they chased Teixiera. And Prince could eventually slide into the DH spot if necessary. Prince would be perfect for them.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hopefully this helps the Cubs achieve the 16th best record in the majors this year, so when they sign Prince in the offseason, the Brewers end up with the 16th pick!

Monkeyman, I think the Cubbies will chase Prince huge time after this year. Pena will be a FA, and they don't have left handed power, so it's a perfect fit. Not to mention it would be sticking it to the Brewers.

 

I also see Baltimore going after him. I think this is the best fit. Prince would crush as Camden Yards, and the O's have some young pitching that will be ready. And the O's seem willing to spend for the right guy - like when they chased Teixiera. And Prince could eventually slide into the DH spot if necessary. Prince would be perfect for them.

 

Fielder is definitely on Cub radar and with everything being equal between Chicago and Baltimore, it's a no-brainer, he'll be a Cub. Brewers will need to bid just to help drive up the price.

[Baldkin]

How much would you expect it to though? How would it shake out?

 

Suppose the Cubs can win 6 more games because of Garza, and because of that their probability of winning the division increases by 7% (I'm just making numbers up, obviously. I have no idea what they really would be.) That 7% would have to come out of other teams' win-the-division probability, and I have to guess that it comes out of Houston and Pittsburgh more than St. Louis, Milwaukee and Cincinnati. (I'm assuming a model where you simulate every game, and I'm assuming that Houston and Pittsburgh lose more than the other teams do to the Cubs, and that they their total number of wins is reduced more than the other teams.) I'm also guessing that Milwaukee, Cincy, and St. Louis lose their percentage of the win-the-division probability equally, or at least close to.

 

So can we really expect to lose more than a couple of % points in the probability of the Crew winning the division?

 

I honestly don't know. You seem to know these models very well and that's why I ask. Thanks.

Pre Garza trade was the first set of 2011 division winner projections that I saw over in Russ's post.

Cardinals 90.2 71.8 746 676 35.0%

Brewers 87.2 74.8 698 650 27.9%

Reds 85.5 76.5 723 689 23.5%

Cubs 79.3 82.7 742 761 10.5%

Pirates 67.7 94.3 671 808 2.1%

Astros 65.8 96.2 604 732 1.1%

 

So, with whatever bump the Cubs get, it will come at the expense, mostly, of the Cards, Brewers and Reds, as the Pirates and Astros have no room to get worse. The Cubs probably got about 3 wins better, which would be about a 4% or so gain.

[Ennder]

Yeah I don't see Fielder going to an NL team.

[homer]

Yeah I don't see Fielder going to an NL team.

If the money is right, I could see him doing it. I think it'd be crazy for an NL team to sign him to a giant contract though.

[TooLiveBrew]

I could easily see it. Prince has commented how he thinks he's a better defensive player than he gets credit for. Plus the 1B types that are destined for DH-dom often state they want to sign with a team that will let them play defense (Adam Dunn for a recent example -- Nats contract, not ChiSox). Lance Berkman's another just off the top of my head.

[patrickgpe]

there is a poll on mlbtraderumors.com on which team got the better prospects in return and the rays are currently up about 60-30%. Maybe its cubs fans stacking the results and I will admit I know little about what the cubs gave up. but I am still shocked at the difference.

[trwi7]

Too funny not to post.

 

11:40 AM CT- I am hearing the pitcher the Cubs acquired in the trade is Matt Moore, Alex Torres, or Braulio Lara. All three are left handed pitchers in the the Rays top 10 prospects for 2011 according to Baseball America. As soon as I can confirm it I will post it. If this is the case you can then argue the Cubs got a better deal than everyone originally thought.

[Patrick425]

I see a lot of posts stating this really hurts the chance of WC team coming from the Central. This is one player and I think the impact is a little overstated. The Brewers play the the Cubs 16 times over 5 series. They could see Garza as many as 5 times, but it will probably more like 3 or4. Let's say it's 4 times and they lose all 4 times that they face him. That doesn't necessarily mean that they have 4 less wins than they would have had the Cubs not obtained Garza. They many have lost those games anyways or they may have lost 2 of those games anyways. I really don't think this makes more than a 2 game impact on the Brewers totals wins at most. I realize two games can be the difference between WC and no WC, but I'm not writing the Central division out of WC contention yet.

 

I also don't think that Garza is enough to make the Cubs division or WC contenders unless they can somehow hang close until mid-season and then swing a big impact trade. I don't believe their roster, as it currently stands, has the horses to contend through the entire season.

[Ennder]

Oh I think Fielder will certainly be open to playing for an NL team, I just don't see an NL team committing the type of years/money that it will take to sign him.

[endaround]

Oh I think Fielder will certainly be open to playing for an NL team, I just don't see an NL team committing the type of years/money that it will take to sign him.

Philly just gave Howard his deal. You think the Cubs braintrust is any smarter?

[Ennder]

Howard is a better defensive 1B than Fielder is and that was a home team deal which would make more sense to me.

[Invader3K]

I could definitely see the Cubs giving Fielder a huge deal. They are probably one of the few NL teams with the means and reasoning to do so, however.

[davemakovec]

I think this move gives the Cubs a chance to play for third place in the Central. They're still old, and their best hitter spent a third of last season not hitting.Their best pitchers are going to hope to match Gallardo's poor seasons.