Garza traded to the Cubs; Archer, Guyer, Chirinos, Lee, Fuld to Tampa

[TooLiveBrew]

However, this does look like a good trade on Tampa's end.

 

I agree, with the caveat that I don't know anything about the other guys the Rays gave up. It'll be hard to determine the real value of this trade until the MiLBers coming to Chicago are known. Ultimately the Cubs probably kept their best prospects in this deal -- guys like Cashner, Castro, Vitters, Carpenter, & McNutt. But I do like the talent Tampa got in this one.

 

Hak-Ju Lee is an interesting prospect, even if his star faded a bit in '10. He's still a rangy SS that hits LH & shows solid plate discipline numbers.

 

Archer looks better than just a solid prospect imo -- FB sits in the low to mid-90s, and his BB rate improved drastically at A+ last season. Even though his control still needs refining, he pitched pretty well as a 21-yo last season at A+ (2.85 FIP) & AA (3.41). Baseball America apparently ranked him as the Cubs' #1 prospect.

 

Chirinos was rated the Cubs' 12th-best prospect by Kevin Goldstein (he had Archer at #3). He's an interesting one, a catcher converted from the infield, which explains why he'll be 27 next season & only have gotten to AAA. Looks like he has some power & plate discipline, but I don't know anything about his defense.

 

I pulled what little info I could find on these guys from FanGraphs writeups, most notably Joe Pawlikowski's review of the Garza trade from Chicago's perspective

[DHonks]

Good to see Fernando Perez is still in baseball. He's the best defensive CF I've ever seen in person, and also one of the smartest players (Ivy League). If Melvin's theory ever comes true for him and he learns how to use his speed, he could be a sleeper for the Cubs from this deal

[sbrylski]

Good to see Fernando Perez is still in baseball. He's the best defensive CF I've ever seen in person, and also one of the smartest players (Ivy League). If Melvin's theory ever comes true for him and he learns how to use his speed, he could be a sleeper for the Cubs from this deal

I've always liked him as well, but I think the star has just about gone out on his career. He's 28 years old, and after missing much of 2009, he posted a .223 / .280 / .299 line in nearly a full season at Triple-A last year. His defense alone makes him a 5th outfielder, but I no longer see reason to think he'll hit anywhere better than a .300-.320 wOBA in the majors over his career, if that.

[rluzinski]

I don't like this one bit. I don't know if it puts the Cubs at the same level as the Cardinals or Reds but it certainly puts them in the range where a little luck could have them in the division race.

This just makes it more of a 4 team race than a 3 team race and may actually reduce the number of wins needed to capture the division. The Brewers, Reds and Cards are still all stronger in the middle of the lineup than the Cubs and still should rate an edge.

The Cubs got better, so the odds of the Brewers winning the division just went down. We can argue by how much but it went down.

[filthyfrog]

I think this makes the Cubs a lot better. Lots of people said that Marcum's ERA should drop a half run or so moving from the AL East to the NL Central. I'm not sure I buy it, but if it's true for Marcum, it's also true for Garza, who has been very consistently good throughout his career. And while it's true that the Cubs have a lot of aging stars, I think people forget how good guys like Zambrano, Ramirez, and Soriano can be when they're healthy. Also, while the Cubs don't have anyone as good as Greinke, Fielder, or Braun, they also don't have any glaring holes, except maybe at 2B. If they stay healthy, which is a big if, I don't see any reason they can't compete with the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals this year.

 

Another consequence of this deal is that making the Central a four team race makes it a lot tougher for the wild card to come from our division. If the Big 4 all beat each other up, it might be the division or nothing.

[JohnBriggs12]

Betancourt for his career is hitting .333 against Garza!!

 

So if the worst player in all of baseball can hit him, can't anyone?

[pretendastronaut]

Another consequence of this deal is that making the Central a four team race makes it a lot tougher for the wild card to come from our division. If the Big 4 all beat each other up, it might be the division or nothing.

 

 

In theory that makes sense to me, however, the AL East has taken the AL Wildcard 4 years straight, and 12 of 16 overall. Granted this division doesn't stack up to the AL East, but still, we've had several years of great teams in that division who have to play each other a ton and they're still grabbing the wild card.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't like this one bit. I don't know if it puts the Cubs at the same level as the Cardinals or Reds but it certainly puts them in the range where a little luck could have them in the division race.

This just makes it more of a 4 team race than a 3 team race and may actually reduce the number of wins needed to capture the division. The Brewers, Reds and Cards are still all stronger in the middle of the lineup than the Cubs and still should rate an edge.

The Cubs got better, so the odds of the Brewers winning the division just went down. We can argue by how much but it went down.

I never had the Cubs out it. They are a major market team. They weren't just going to punt because the Brewers improved. It's baseball and anything can happen and moves get made.

[Thurston Fluff]

Overall this makes the Cubs better next season but not enough to think we can't compete. I really don't care what rest of the division does as long as the Brewers do what they need to be competitive. I would rather have a great season full of competitive series than a cake walk but have to sit through a bunch of bad baseball so bring it on.

 

 

The Brewers track record in developing guys from roster fillers to actual prospects with value just isn't very good. You mention Soto. Well he's been an All Star and he was picked in the 11th round. Heck the Brewers are benefiting from a guy the Cubs developed, Casey McGehee.

 

The only direct comparison between the two team's ability to turn players into a major league caliber player we have is McGehee. If we can get him to play better at the major league level than they could at the minor league then I think it a stretch to give them too much credit.

[BrewCrewRising]

I don't like this one bit. I don't know if it puts the Cubs at the same level as the Cardinals or Reds but it certainly puts them in the range where a little luck could have them in the division race.

This just makes it more of a 4 team race than a 3 team race and may actually reduce the number of wins needed to capture the division. The Brewers, Reds and Cards are still all stronger in the middle of the lineup than the Cubs and still should rate an edge.

The Cubs got better, so the odds of the Brewers winning the division just went down. We can argue by how much but it went down.

How much would you expect it to though? How would it shake out?

 

Suppose the Cubs can win 6 more games because of Garza, and because of that their probability of winning the division increases by 7% (I'm just making numbers up, obviously. I have no idea what they really would be.) That 7% would have to come out of other teams' win-the-division probability, and I have to guess that it comes out of Houston and Pittsburgh more than St. Louis, Milwaukee and Cincinnati. (I'm assuming a model where you simulate every game, and I'm assuming that Houston and Pittsburgh lose more than the other teams do to the Cubs, and that they their total number of wins is reduced more than the other teams.) I'm also guessing that Milwaukee, Cincy, and St. Louis lose their percentage of the win-the-division probability equally, or at least close to.

 

So can we really expect to lose more than a couple of % points in the probability of the Crew winning the division?

 

I honestly don't know. You seem to know these models very well and that's why I ask. Thanks.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Jeremy Hellickson will be a hot pick in fantasy drafts come March as he gets a spot in the Rays rotation now. The Rays Major League roster might have gotten better as a result of this trade.

[Funketown]

I think this makes the Cubs a lot better. Lots of people said that Marcum's ERA should drop a half run or so moving from the AL East to the NL Central. I'm not sure I buy it, but if it's true for Marcum, it's also true for Garza, who has been very consistently good throughout his career.

One thing about Garza that I think is worth mentioning: The Rays had a team UZR of 147 from 2008-2010. The Cubs should be below average defensively. While the Brewers' defense is worse than Toronto's, I don't think the difference between the Crew and the Jays is as great as the difference between the Rays and the Cubs.

[sveumrules]

To add a little bit to what Funk wrote above, Garza's extreme flyball tendencies should mitigate some of the theoretical AL to NL ERA gain he would benefit from as he is moving from the Trop which suppresses home runs slightly to Wrigley which does quite the opposite.

[greeg35]

Funketown, that is a really funny sig. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

[NievesNoNO]

I really wish some other team would've ponied up for Garza. I'm not going to try to find a reason that suggests that Garza isn't that good or he'll probably regress. The guy's a top of the rotation starter coming into his prime. The bottom line is the Cubs got better and it makes be kind of cranky because now I'll have to hear from my Cub fan friends on how well the Cubs rotation matches up with anyone in the division. Nice grab for the Cubs, but I still like our chances. Indeed, the NL Central will have some nice pitching match-ups this summer.

[Klements Bratwurst]

Unrelated to the Garza conversation, but now I wonder if Melvin goes and gets a better SS than what we have? Every win truly counts now! There may be no room for error. We can't start "Batter nine you sucky" can we? Good move for the Cubs, but Greinke alone is better than Garza and we have Marcum on top of that.....

[SZBrewerFan]

I like Garza and the Cubs are better for having him, but it will be very interesting to see how he and Zambrano coexist on the same team. Talk about two major head cases. Garza is an extreme hot head so it should make for an extremely interesting summer on the northside if nothing else!

[DocBrewPack]

This sets up Cubs fans nicely for another disappointing year. At least before this trade they didn’t have any real expectations, now im going to hear about how they are going to win the division. So when they don’t, I guess this will make it all the worse. (this does I think set them up better for the future in maybe 3 years but then again, they are the Cubs)

[homer]

This does not make the Cubs contenders next year unless the stars align completely for them. They are old all over the place. I don't know why they are trying to add now when the team will be lucky (very lucky) to sniff .500 next year even with Garza. Unless they can sign Garza to an extension this is a silly move that depletes depth for their eventual rebuilding.

[crewcrazy]

For his career, Garza throws his fastball 70% of the time -- understandable, since it is his best pitch, but guess who's the best fastball-hitting team in the division?

 

Yeah, the Brewers.

 

I agree with those who say that this isn't a bad move for the Cubs, but they won't see the real benefits in 2011. If they do pin their ears back and go after Prince as their #1 target this offseason, though, who knows what happens after this season.

[monty57]

Unless they can sign Garza to an extension this is a silly move that depletes depth for their eventual rebuilding.

Unfortunately, when you're a big market team, the eventual rebuild doesn't necessarily have to come. This was really supposed to be their down time, and they've now at least given themselves a shot at a division title. Some of their obscene contracts will start coming due over the next few years, and they have the financial resources to rebuild quickly.

 

I still think the Brewers are better this year, but when another team in your division gets better, your chances of making the playoffs get worse.

[Vgmastr]

I think the Rays are the winners just for getting this guy:

 

http://i234.photobucket.com/albums/ee311/ablogaboutthings/Archer-FX.jpg

 

What were the Cubs thinking giving him up?

[RedFlash2]

This deal doesn't make sense for the Cubs, but sense they didn't give up any can't miss prospects (as good as Archer and Lee can be, neither are considered can't miss) it doesn't hurt the Cubs as much as one might think. This doesn't help the Cubs in 2011, imo, but it should keep the Cubs above the Pirates/Astros (whoopee!!!!!!!!!! rollseyes) and right there in mirror of the Reds/Brewers/Cardinals.

[danzig6767]

Unless they can sign Garza to an extension this is a silly move that depletes depth for their eventual rebuilding.

Unfortunately, when you're a big market team, the eventual rebuild doesn't necessarily have to come. This was really supposed to be their down time, and they've now at least given themselves a shot at a division title. Some of their obscene contracts will start coming due over the next few years, and they have the financial resources to rebuild quickly.

Garza doesn't need to be extended right now anyways, the Cubs control his rights for this season and two more after that.

 

The three years of team control is a big reason why it's hard for me to bash this trade for the Cubs. Garza isn't an ace, but he's only 27 and a nice No.2 option for their rotation and it's not like he'll be a free agent after the season.

 

Maybe Archer or Lee becomes a really good major league player, but the odds of either one becoming as good as Garza are less than 50 percent and probably more like 20-25 percent. The main benefit if one or both panning out is that they'll spend their first four years making little money.

[BrewCrewForever]

I like Garza, he is a good pitcher. But I think the Cubs overpaid. They seemed to pay almost ace price and Garza is more a 2 or 3. Makes the Cubs a little better, but I still see 4th place in their 2011 future.