MLB 2011 Projected Standings

[rluzinski]

The first MLB 2011 projected standing (that I am aware of) are out:

Cairo 2011 Projected Standings

Projections Used

Depth Charts

28% chance of the Brewers winning the Central, 37% chance of making the post season. I guess I eyeballed it at around 50% but I probably overestimated their chance of winning the wildcard. Just too many teams in the running and it only takes one to luck themselves to 90 wins.

As the author warns, it's really early to be doing something like this, since rosters are far from set for many teams.

[And That]

That projection has the Brewers allowing 154 fewer runs in 2011. The only team in the same area code as far as pitching improvement are the Nationals. Allowing almost a run less per game is a pretty big deal, obviously. It also has the offense getting quite a bit worse, 52 fewer runs. Could be the key to the Brewers' season will be getting solid production out of the offense.

 

87 wins definitely is within the realm of what I would expect, maybe 3 wins.

[RightFieldCoder]

I like the -154 RA. I don't see how they think we'll score -52 less runs in 2011.

[Ennder]

Some of the playtime predictions by cairo are really out of whack, so until they fix that I wouldn't put too much stock into these but nice to see us with a solid number of wins regardless. The defensive projections look a bit iffy too, like Berkman only being a -4 in RF with a lot of playtime.

[gregmag]

I can see it. Hart, McGehee, and Weeks all just had their best years to date. In each case there's a decent reason to believe the improvement is legit, but a projection system generally won't bet on a player in his late 20s to replicate a career year. Fielder and Weeks have both now had two years out of three that aren't great by their high standards, which makes it hard to project that they'll bounce back to top form. Lucroy should improve, and Betancourt probably should hit more than Escobar did last year, but those improvements figure to be modest. CF . . . who knows.

[thumperden]

I've been thinking that the Brewers will win 88 games in 2011. I feel a little hesitant to have that expectation because I am a Brewer fan after all. Does anyone think I'm being too optimistic?

[Warning Track Power]

I think 88 wins + 3 wins is where I currently see this team. I think 90 wins guarantees this division this year, with the winner likely in the 87-89 range. I think us the Reds and Cards beat up on each other a lot this season ensuring no one really runs away with the division.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like the -154 RA. I don't see how they think we'll score -52 less runs in 2011.

Last year a lot of runs were scored in a handful of games. So there could be a dip, but if they allow 154 fewer, I can't imagine them not improving by more than 12 wins.

 

Both Fielder and Braun could easily improve on their numbers over last year. If that happens, it will offset any dropoff from Weeks and/or Hart.

[rluzinski]

Rule of thumb is, every 10 runs is worth around a win. +154 - 52 = 102 runs = 10.2 wins. Considering that the Brewers had a slightly less than optimal runs scored per game distribution (blow out wins), 12 more wins sounds reasonable.

[monty57]

If the projections use the standard "past three years weighted average" format, here's why I think the -52 runs makes sense:

 

Weeks was limited to 147 games in 2009 and posted a .740 OPS in 2008

Hart had his solid .892 OPS 2007 fall off the 3-year horizon, and had .759 & .753 OPS in 2008 & 2009 before his solid .865 OPS in 2010

Fielder's 1.013 OPS 2007 also falls off the 3-year horizon, leaving him with an .879 OPS in 2008, 1.014 in 2009 and .872 in 2010 (the most heavily weighted year)

Braun's devastating rookie campaign (1.004 OPS) is off the horizon. His last three season have been .888 OPS in 2008, .937 OPS in 2009, .866 in 2010. Like Fielder, his heaviest weighting is from his worst season.

 

As the author said, these are just projections which are much more accurate on players as a whole than they are on individual players. We have some tough-to-project players. Weeks has been solid when healthy the past two seasons, but he's not that far from being the guy that about 3/4 of the fans wanted to DFA. Hart seems to be really good or really bad, and it's hard to predict that he will be nearly as good in 2011 as he was in 2010. Fielder is great, but he seems to be elite in odd years and really good in even years. I personally blame a well-placed Braves fastball for Braun's sub-par (for him) season in 2010, and he seems to be the most consistant/projectable Brewers hitter.

 

We also have three players (not including the pitcher's spot) at the end of the lineup who will very likely post sub-.700 OPS for the season. Of course, we had that last year as well, it's just that Hart played like a superstar, Edmonds, Inglett, Zaun and Cain hit better than expected in their 608 combined ABs and our pitchers hit very well.

 

I could see Fielder and Braun "bouncing back" and Hart & Weeks posting .800+ OPS seasons, leading us to a Top 5 offense, or I could see regression in some players, giving us a Top 10-15 offense. As long as we have Fielder and Braun, I don't see us being below average on offense... they're too good.

[brewerguy71]

Ive got them in the 86 plus or minus 3 range myself. I can easily see the drop in runs scored happening as well. Cards shouldnt be as good, and the Reds will hold the keys to the division.